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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    After this last start, I can't see any MLB team discussing Happ at all. There are guys any team has at AAA who would probably be a better choice.
  2. bean5302
    Polanco looks to be putting together a solid 2.5-3.0 WAR campaign this year based on positional value and his bat. There are reasons to think Polanco's performance at the plate continue to climb a bit since his BABIP is still a bit too low at .267 compared to his career .307, but his HR rate is probably a bit inflated. Polanco doesn't walk a ton, but he also doesn't strike out a lot and he brings a little pop. Defensive metrics can be pretty unreliable until you get a couple full seasons together and there are several different systems for measuring play. While Baseball Reference shows Polanco with a Total Zone per 1200 innings of +10 runs, UZR/150 shows Polanco at a -13.7 runs over 150 games. That's literally 2 WAR difference just in defensive metric projections across a full season. Regardless of the advanced metrics, one thing which is clear, the biggest contributor to Polanco's previous defensive shortcomings (error rate) is still an issue. That said, Polanco is playing as a 2B consistently for the first time in several years so there's still room for improvement. While Polanco's contract is pretty minimal right now, it grades up to $10.5MM by year 2024 and I don't think he provides a big upside over Luis Arraez. Honestly, I think Arraez is good enough to start on a lot of MLB teams so keeping him as a utility guy feels wasteful. I think the Twins should seek to move Arraez or Polanco before next season and if I were choosing a player to move, it'd be Polanco for the savings.
  3. bean5302
    I don't think this is a fair take because of how big of an impact we're talking about for both the player and the organization. There's a lot to think about. You're talking about potentially the entire career for a player who has invested a decade of very hard work into "his" company. He's negotiating a guaranteed contract worth 10s of millions (or even potentially asking for 100s of millions of dollars) where this contract could lead to enormous repercussions for a multi-billion dollar company. It's more like a business acquisition than selling a used car with a "bottom line" price which has been pre determined. Agents, lawyers, executives and business owners are all involved in these discussions around risk analysis, forecasting, competitive balance, cash flows, legal and insurance issues are at play. Trying to view it from a wider perspective may provide more insight into why these negotiations are seemingly so complicated and take so long as frustrating as it is for fans.
  4. bean5302
    It's also worth noting the Twins signed Morneau, Cuddyer and Nathan to extensions immediately after deciding to trade Santana after being unable to come to an agreement with Johan on an extension. The Twins may be trying to get the Buxton situation in order before looking at Berrios.
  5. bean5302
    I've read pretty much nothing about Berrios and the Twins' contract negotiations. It doesn't even sound like they got too invested in extension discussions earlier this spring. It wouldn't surprise me if the Twins are a little skittish of negotiating any huge contracts before the 2022 CBA and that's the reason we're not seeing a lot of extension discussion in regard to Berrios.
  6. bean5302
    While it's certainly true that many prospects don't pan out, teams still need to draft and develop prospects with the expectation those players will eventually supplant existing veterans. The Twins are going to have to bring up prospects one way or another, but doing it during a lost season like this one is considered by many to be the least risky way of doing it. Unfortunately, with only 26 roster spots available at the trade deadline, making room requires taking risks on letting existing talent go to other teams.
  7. bean5302
    Certainly tough to estimate. I don't think him being healthy for a month or two makes a significant difference, TBH. A little open to debate on just how much, actually. When the Yankees signed Hicks, he was coming off a 7.2 bWAR and 5.2 bWAR per 162 seasons. Buxton was at 5.6 bWAR and 8.7 bWAR in 2019-2020.
  8. bean5302
    Did you mean somebody else? Nomar Mazara is a 26 year old 6 year MLB veteran who Texas traded to the White Sox in 2020 for MiLB positional depth. Mazara was then was non tendered by the White Sox last December. After two months of job searching, the Tigers picked Mazra up on a 1 year $1.75MM contract. Mazara is not a prospect and he's not going to be anything other than organizational depth on a competitive team.
  9. bean5302
    I'd honestly like an independent source to go out on a limb and give a Buxton free agent contract estimate right now, but that's not going to happen since Buxton isn't going to be a free agent next year. Twins fans are not remotely objective on the issue. There's so much invested in it. When it comes to Aaron Hicks' contract, I think other teams across MLB are looking more at comparable durability than the AAV in terms of how it relates to Buxton. Even so, to be blunt, Hicks and Buxton are pretty comparable in terms of WAR production since Buxton arrived in 2015. Is a healthy Buxton dramatically superior to a healthy Hicks? Probably not. Buxton gets you an extra 1.5 WAR in defensive value in a full season and that's about it, and that's how I'd look at things from a GM perspective.
  10. bean5302
    Mitch Garver vs Ryan Jeffers. Luckily, Garver (258 innings) and Jeffers (298 innings) have played in a similar number of innings with the same pitching staff this year. Framing? Garver +2, Jeffers +1. Errors? Identical = 1 Passed balls count? Identical = 2 Wild pitches? Garver = 10 vs. Jeffers = 12 Caught stealing? Garver 20% (career 20%), Jeffers 35% (career 25%), but opposing teams have run on Jeffers far more frequently 26 attempts vs. 15 attempts. Jeffers was bad in 2020, catching only 13% while Garver caught 33% last year. As far as CS%, that seems to fluctuate a lot, year to year. It seems hard to gauge without a few years in a row with similar numbers. If I were a betting person, I'd wager the stance on Garver's defense has more to do with reputation than reality.
  11. bean5302
    Donaldson's playing history included a pretty solid track record on games played. 2013 - Full season (158) 2014 - Full season (158) 2015 - Full season (158) 2016 - Full season (155) 2017 - 113 games 2018 - 52 games 2019 - Full season (155) In my opinion, Byron Buxton's track record on games played doesn't look much like Donaldson. I also think it's a disservice to Donaldson's value added to compare Buxton to him in terms of how much a team might pay or expect in production. Donaldson's top 5 bWAR seasons are all higher than any season Buxton has ever had while Donaldson also collected an MVP, and was a 3x All Star.
  12. bean5302
    I don't think it's a big issue, but just for the sake of accuracy, Buxton has had migraines since childhood. Here's an article with a quote about it. https://www.mlb.com/news/twins-byron-buxton-sidelined-with-migraines-c244651028. I'm not saying concussions couldn't have influenced the severity or frequency of migraines, but it's not something which can be directly attributed to concussions.
  13. bean5302
    I don't see any team giving Buxton more than 3 years in the open market on a guaranteed high AAV contract. At the end of 2021, it will have been 5 years since Buxton hadn't missed an massive amount of time on the field due to injury or generated more than 3 WAR in a season. I can't see the Twins offering less than 3-4 years in total right now (2-3yr extension), and at $70MM, that's more than fair. If the speculation is accurate and the Twins are offering 7/70MM, I also can't see Buxton taking it because the potential for him to earn dramatically more on a short term deal and a new contract afterwards is realistic. The timing of this statement makes no sense to me. Are the Twins attempting to drum up some calls on Buxton across the league? If they're not already getting calls, that probably says a lot about other teams' interest level in him. Also, a statement like this is likely to agitate Buxton which reduces Twins negotiating leverage with other teams and Buxton both now and in the offseason. I just see this as a lose-lose. It would be a better strategy to leak another team is courting the Twins for Buxton.
  14. bean5302
    I've seen AA as a place where players work on their mechanics and craft against high level competition and AAA as a place pitchers prove their polish and locating, but that's just my opinion. If the Twins aren't having him make any mechanical changes and he keeps dominating AA for another couple weeks, it would make sense to me to push him to AAA and / or make a September call up, but I'd imagine the Twins are going to be watching his innings if it looks like he's going to throw more than 100 this year. Just my guesswork bouncing around in my head.
  15. bean5302
    Glad to see Garver hitting the ball right away and Jake Cave running at full speed. Phrases like "back fracture" are kind of terrifying to me, and regardless of how people feel about his abilities on the field at the MLB level, I'd think nobody wishes those kinds of injuries on anybody. The fact Balazovic got through 7.0 innings on just 90 pitches and only 2 more batters than the minimum is awesome. That's serious efficiency to go along with the double digit strikeouts. Hope he can keep it going and get up to 100 innings.
  16. bean5302
    Varland didn't sound like he was really heavily scouted as he was a 15th rounder in 2019 and, of course, missed 2020 due to the COVID shutdowns. The Twins reworked his delivery mechanics and he picked up several miles per hour on his fastball. Varland sits in the upper 90s now and can touch 100 in max effort throws. He also throws a slider, changeup and is working on a cutter, but based on his draft position and him describing himself as fastball heavy out of college, I expect all of them have needed some work. Evidently the work on his pitches must be paying off, but his UCL strain right away in 2019 does set off some red flags on durability expectations as far as I'm concerned. If he can continue seeing success as he moves up the ladder, it'll be a huge feather in the cap of the Twins front office and obviously a dream come true to stand on the mound at the MLB level for a kid who didn't have a hint he'd be drafted before getting the phone call. Seth did an interview with him earlier this year.
  17. bean5302
    In regard to solutions for shortstops, there is an enormous free agent class for 2022 if the Twins don't see a legitimate option on the roster. The elite who will be looking for 6-10 years and big AAV (think 25-30MM+ per year): Correa, Semien, Story Then there is Baez who is young and very good, but not elite and will still be looking for 6+ years with maybe more like $20MM per year. Rounding out the class is Crawford who won't get more than 2 guaranteed years because of his age, but will still probably command $15MM per year and Simmons, who we already have on the roster. The Twins could potentially re-sign him and try to use him as a stop gap next year again. I'd expect him to take another 1 year, $10MM contract. The good news is that's a huge number of great shortstops so you have to wonder whether or not the glut of supply will drive down prices a bit.
  18. bean5302
    Because I'm assuming if the Twins trade Donaldson, Berrios, Rogers and Buxton, and then don't pick up the option for Colombe, they won't be paying Donaldson, Berrios, Rogers, Buxton or Colombe. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/minnesota-twins/payroll/2022/ On the books currently for 2022: $52MM. Less Donaldson & Colombe = $26MM (includes Sano, Kepler, Maeda, Polanco, Dobnak). I eyeballed the $14MM figure. Garver, Duffey & Robles are the only other players we have control over currently making more than $1MM and performance or injury will keep all three of them from getting huge raises. If it winds up being $20MM instead of $14MM, I don't think the difference is relevant to my point, though.
  19. bean5302
    In regard to whether or not the Twins can compete in 2022 if they move Buxton, Berrios, Rogers and Donaldson combined, the answer is yes. Colombe is going to need to pitch out of his mind good to have the Twins pick up his option. That would leave Minnesota with a tiny $26MM on the books for next year, plus another, say, $14MM for bringing back the rest of the roster. What could they do with $80-$90MM in a typical Twins budget? Just about anything they want. Major components of the team could look totally different. If the Twins only went with other in house options, got nobody MLB ready in return for those players and tried to compete with a $40MM payroll? Obviously, they'd look like a team gearing up to lose 100 games, but it seems really unlikely for that to happen.
  20. bean5302
    I think we're beating a dead horse at this point, and it seems this dead horse refuses resurrect itself, get back up and pull the wagon again. Stupid horse. I've probably been a little aggressive on the subject since I'm having a heck of a time fixing a cascade of issues on a car that just refuses to be repaired, lol.
  21. bean5302
    There continues to be a lot of talk about Buxton, but the reality is he's not likely going to be out of a splint much before the trade deadline itself, and he'll need an obvious rehab assignment. Buxton being ready for MLB games much before early/mid August is probably unlikely and teams are usually pretty skittish about trading for injured players. I have advocated for Buxton being shopped, at least, to get a perspective on what other teams think of him, but it's hard to get a good feel for a player's value while they're injured. Sucks for everybody. Buxton himself, the front office and the fans.
  22. bean5302
    If it's not about the money, Buxton would just sign for 1 year with 10 team options all for the MLB minimum. It's absolutely about the money, haha. That's okay, by the way. He's a professional and pretty much all professionals expect to be compensated fairly. The Twins aren't going to trash talk Buxton to the media and Buxton isn't going to trash the Minnesota Twins and say he doesn't want to be here, either. Well, at least it's very rare to see a MLB player take that position. The next couple of weeks should be really interesting.
  23. bean5302
    Sounds a lot like a Tommy Milone ceiling, but only hoping for the best. It's a dream for any player to get a shot at the big leagues!
  24. bean5302
    Yep, the Twins were also in a position to sign Yu Darvish in 2018, and there has pretty much never been a signing which would have made more sense. Basically, just because the Twins could sign Berrios, Buxton and Rogers doesn't mean they will or they expect to. I consider the Twins to be masters of saving face in the public eye by making lowball offers which aren't exactly "insulting" but are also unlikely to get guys to sign. The Twins claim they made a good offer and shucky darn, some other team just came along and paid more. What can ya do?
  25. bean5302
    Donaldson's been hot lately and he's on pace to generate about 3 WAR this season which is totally solid for a starting 3B. On top of that, he doesn't have a long contract and that combination isn't super easy to come by. Donaldson is looked at pretty universally as a good to great bat. Worst case scenario, you trade him in the offseason. There is some risk he gets injured and misses a bunch of time again, but the bat is just too steady to ignore. Josh Donaldson isn't Chris Davis.
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