bean5302

Question in general on Chargois. While he's shown as being under team control for like 4 more years, the Dodgers released him in 2019 and that should have made him a free agent in full right there, shouldn't it have?

I'm actually way more concerned about our middle infield defense. I feel like somebody brought up Cavaco's struggles a couple months ago and I responded with players in A ball often have defensive stumbles. Then I went and looked at Cavaco again the other day and realized maybe it was only Twins prospects who stumble so badly in the minors. We have a very long history of horrible shortstop fielding that goes all the way back to Trevor Plouffe. Polanco, Gordon and Cavaco appear to have have rocks in their gloves with Lewis being mediocre and even Palacios' error rate isn't good despite all his experience. I'm starting to wonder if Gordon's defensive woes are a function of poor coaching. That kind of stuff will kill a team for years.

I suppose it's possible Gausman gets to 5 / $125MM, but I don't think Stroman gets much more than that and I'd definitely rather have Stroman. I mean... you have to think that offer pretty much guaranteed gets Berrios extended right now if the Twins made it.

I was just talking about the desire for veteran leadership. If a veteran is all you need, there's no need to pay $10MM to get him. The Twins would need to go for $20MM+ on a longer contract to get somebody they should feel comfortable in having on the roster for 4+ years. Ervin Santana got $15MM/year from the Twins 8 years ago and, as expected, he tailed off.

Then bring back Shoemaker and Happ. I just don't see the value in signing a $10MM veteran pitcher if you're not competing.

I remember when Sano was expected to be a great third baseman with an elite bat. Then maybe just a solid 3rd baseman with a very good bat. Then, well, at least his athleticism and reach will make him a great 1st baseman and he'll still have a good bat. Well, maybe he's passable at 1st base, and if he's just solidly above average at the plate. I mean... how bad can a first baseman really be, and he had a great year a couple years ago! Ah ****... well, we can put him at DH and his bat is still league average after a nice 2 week hot streak. That's what we all expected, after all, and maybe the $9.25MM is an ever so slight overpay for a guy who has a negative fWAR, but negative WAR values never hurt a team! The only way Miguel Sano should be on the Twins' roster in 2022 is if they don't expect to compete.

Can't fathom why the Twins would bring back Pineda in this scenario. If they're going to use basically all prospects, there is no reason to bring in Pineda.

Potentially? Like 7 who are definitely better than Berrios and some of them without qualifying offers. Another dozen potential arms. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/starting-pitcher/

In 2019, the Twins got career years out of several players when they were playing in by far the weakest division in baseball. The White Sox, Tigers and Royals were all awful. The Twins' pythagorean also showed they were a little lucky on top of it all. 2020 is a throwaway year. Short, late start, not even all the players actually played. Tough to say what's ahead for the Twins as they're currently utterly without direction. In fact, it's felt that way for a while now.

I see a lot less criticism of Rooker lately, but I wonder why? Maybe because in just 6 games he's hit for .348/.444/.826 OPS 1.271 and that tiny sample has now pushed him to an above average MLB bat for the season at OPS+ 113? I mean, this isn't going to continue, but he's also walked 11% while striking out only 19%. If Rooker puts together a good run down the stretch, it would be hard to argue against his long term potential and it will be, yet again, another strike against the front office for not recognizing existing talent.

Prospects are great, but teams competing for a World Series teams do not count on them to lead the way. Starting pitchers are always viewed with skepticism until they prove it at the MLB level, and you can bet no team expecting to compete for a World Series is counting on any of their pitching prospects leading the way so even if the Twins farm system was absolutely stacked, I think it would be foolhardy to count on prospects carrying the heavy load. When teams sign players in free agency, I think it should always be expected they're going to overpay relative to the cost of pre-arbitration and arbitration players. Also, I think it's fair to "overpay" when you fail to develop talent, but you still want to compete while paying your young players peanuts relative to their production. After all, for their first 6 years at the MLB level, players are almost always dramatically underpaid. When Justin Moreneau won the MVP in 2006, he made $385,000. Joe Mauer, who had a better year than Morneau in 2006, only made $400,000. Mike Trout made $1,000,000 in 2014 after winning RoY in 2012 and placing 2nd in MVP voting in 2012 and 2013. Johan Santana won his first Cy Young in 2004 while making $1,600,000. There are at least 5 pitchers better than Berrios slated to hit free agency at the end of this year and the Twins should have enormous payroll capacity to work with.

With the kind of smoke around Berrios and the lack of any leaks regarding extension talks, I'd have to say I'm pretty confident he gets traded. I'm not surprised the Mets are balking after they absolutely stole Stroman from the Blue Jays. I think most fans were shocked at what the Blue Jays took. As I recall, it cast serious doubts on whether or not the Twins were even making an effort at all at getting Stroman.

I'm really glad Maeda is pitching far better as of late. If there's a guy who should have a chip on his shoulder to prove he's the real deal, it's Maeda. Being paid peanuts long term, traded for a likely high upside reliever and not respected as a starter on his former team. He really is quite the underdog and I like those guys succeeding and breaking molds.

Ah the flashbacks to Jim Hoey.

Palacios went 2/4 as well. I really think it's time for him to get a promotion to AAA as he's risen out of the doldrums recently and is back to hitting with an .802 OPS over his last 8 games. I'd like to see if he can keep it up at AAA since he's apparently now the only potential options the Twins might view as a shortstop in the system for the next couple years considering the Twins are apparently attempting to turn Gordon into a center fielder? Trading Rortvedt would be a move that would leave the Twins without a 3rd MLB caliber every day catcher on the roster. He's got 3 options left and he's a potential starting MLB catcher in the future with excellent defensive ratings. Rortvedt was also drafted as a bat first catcher so it's expected he has some tools to work with and there's a fairly decent MiLB track record when it comes to being potentially an average MLB level bat. He looked outright overmatched in his time with the Twins, but that'll give him a great idea of where he needs to improve and time in AAA will allow him to work on his game. Garver misses a lot of time so having only 1 good backup option on the roster is tough. Keeping Wallner in Ft Myers this long seemed a bit conservative given how long he's been in the system and considering how he was drafted. Wallner was a comp round draft pick out of college as a junior and it's technically his 5th professional season so if he's not ready for AA pitching by now, it's probably not going to happen. Hopefully, the Twins move him up a level so they can better evaluate his potential future. His big numbers in Ft Myers reflect a wRC+ of 189 so far. Nothing left to prove considering his age, draft position and level of experience. Varland's performance is pretty exciting for a dark horse candidate to be a starter at the MLB level. He's already exceeded a lot of expectations by getting it done at Fort Myers before moving up to Cedar Rapids. If he pitches continues to pitch this well the rest of the season, I could see him starting next year at AA. Love to see the home run by Cavaco considering his lack of power has really held him back at the plate. I've looked into his numbers in fielding though... and wow. I think the Twins need to make some major coaching changes in the low minors. Yet again, another horrible fielding shortstop. Cavaco is literally the worst shortstop in the league with the highest error rate and lowest RF/9. At .900 fielding percent, that means he's booting/air mailing 1 in 10 balls that come his way and it contributes to a dreadful RF/9 of 3.01. Utterly no excuse for that level of incompetence. Compare Cavaco's fielding percent and RF/9 to his peers. .900, 3.01 - Cavaco (a20, 2019, 1st round) .920, 4.07 - Winn (a19, 2020, 2nd round) .932, 3.52 - Martinez (a19, 2018, Dominican Republic) .915, 3.56 - Escotto (a19, 2018, Dominican Republic) .960, 3.89 - Nunez (a20, 2019, 2nd round) .913, 3.18 - Garcia (a20, 2017, Dominican Republic) .933, 3.50 - Johnson (a22, 2019, 4th Round) .977, 5.22 - Fryman (a23, 2016, 37th Round) .951, 3.33 - Volpe (a20, 2019, 1st Round) .944, 3.40 - Workman (a21, 2017, 14th Round) Most of Cavaco's peers are as young or younger with the same or less college level or professional experience. Cavaco sits dead last in defense. Why are Twins shortstops incapable of developing defensively?

That's what going for it looks like. The Marlins really wanted to dump Marte's salary. The A's got them to keep it in Florida and that cost the A's talent. I can't recall a move by Minnesota... ever, which was bolder. When the Twins "go for it" they get Matt Capps. I think the biggest trade deadline get for the Twins was the acquisition of rental Orlando Cabrera in 2009.

Arraez is defintely a bat forward infielder, but his defense at 2B over the past two years looks pretty average. Between Fangraphs and Baseball Reference, the advanced metrics like UZR/150 and RF/9 give Arraez neutral marks. Fangraphs judges Arraez's defense easily superior to Polanco's (due to Polanco's consistently high error rates) with Baseball Reference showing Polanco to be slightly better than Arraez, probably due to Polanco's superior range. It's all small sample size stuff, though. Schoop hadn't exactly been a great second baseman, especially leading up to and including his time with the Twins and that was over thousands of innings. Schoop's career UZR/150 is still negative at the position despite some really error free play over a small sample size with Detroit over the past couple years. Schoop, as you may not recall was horrible for a long period after a hot start for the Twins to the point he largely lost his job to rookie Arraez, who the Twins weren't high on, for a while. From June 1 to the July 31 trade deadline, Schoop was .245/.278/.413 wRC+ 74 while playing bad defense. It was that opening that honestly gave Arraez a chance. Luckily for Schoop, another injury forced Arraez into the outfield and Arraez's ankle injury allowed Schoop to even make the playoff roster (which was in question if he would). Schoop has been forced to sign 3 consecutive 1 year contracts in a row. Twins $7.5MM, Tigers $6.1MM and Tigers $4.5MM. Pretty much nobody in MLB was interested in him.

The reality is the Twins replaced LaMont Wade with Kyle Garlick. They didn't make the decision based on a roster crunch or Jake Cave. The Twins had no faith in Wade to be a legitimate option at the MLB level so about a week after they traded Wade, the Twins signed Garlick, who is another corner-only outfielder with 1 option. The biggest difference between Wade and Garlick is Wade has plate discipline vs. Garlick having power.

Calling up Burrows is definitely a major strike against Levine in my opinion. Burrows is clearly not ready and has no business on an MLB 26 man roster. He's a project who will need months of work to fix in the unlikely event that's even possible. Keeping him in the minors (preferably A+ or AA) where he can work to figure out what his secondary pitch is and how to use it is the way you handle projects like him. AAA is for showing polish and MLB is when you have little left to prove in the minors. But like I suggested, this is an opportunity for the Twins front office to show their competence or incompetence.

I both like and hate this post.

It is tough to be too hard on the Twins for making the move, but as Brock notes, this front office appears to be virtually inept right now. Can't be happier for him personally, but Wade's breakout is very, very tough to accept when he would have been such a huge asset putting those numbers up for the Twins this year.

Here are Gausman's FIPs. 3.99 (22), 3.41 (23), 4.10 (24), 4.10 (25), 4.48 (26), 4.32 (27), 3.98 (28), 3.09 (29), 2.99 (30). His swinging strike rates are very good and his velocity is stable in with a fastball averaging 94-95mph. His ERA relative to his FIP does bear comparisons to the good 'ol Ricky Nolasco deal, but Gausman has been way more effective. No idea what he'll actually command, especially considering he won't have a QO attached to him. Stroman is better than Berrios. He's almost always been better than Berrios. He's better in ERA, better in FIP, better with consistency... I mean, when I start looking at things, it really makes me not want Berrios and want Stroman more, haha. Saying he's a sinkerballer who doesn't miss bats feels like a quote from Moneyball "he throws funny." How many "clunkers" has Stoman thrown this year allowing more than 3 earned runs? One. How many clunkers has Berrios had? Six. Stroman has 11 quality starts compared to Berrios' 6. I mean... he's just better. Unfortunately, that also might mean other people who are way smarter than I am in regard to how players are performing might push Stroman too high to chase in years and total dollars, especially in light of the lack of a QO on him, too. Gausman and Stroman are both going to be over the $15MM AAV you talked about. Neither of them is going to get less than $18MM and Stroman way well get above $20MM, certainly more than $100MM total. I, too, am haunted by the Ricky Nolasco signing, and I certainly wished the Twins would have gone bigger than Ervin Santana (which turned into a mixed bag). I dislike the idea of signing mid rotation guys in the borderline #3 or #4ish starters. A step back and they're borderline roster guys. That said... I hate the #5 signings for the Mike Pelfrey's of the world so so so much more because all it does is logjam MiLB guys who are probably better behind guys too expensive to cut and who are seemingly almost always painful to watch. Flashbacks to 4hr games with Mike Pelfrey serving up meatballs like an Italian grandma once every 35 seconds, though Gardy pranking him on that phone call made up for 75% of it. I also don't think the Twins should go after Gausman or Stroman unless they also are intent on signing an ace. It's just a waste of money; however, if they do sign a front end starter, I would like them to get a Gausman or Stroman to provide upper rotation stability.

Verlander, Scherzer, Greinke are all aging aces who aren't going to get long contracts. There are some quality guys who are probably going to go sub $20MM like Stroman and Gausman plus some other interesting guys out there, too. If the Twins want to supplement their rotation, the free agent market is going to be nuts for both starting pitching and shortstop. Meant to note Kershaw (who is going nowhere) and Bauer (who may or may not be an option for anybody).

Appreciate these writeups, Seth. I doubt many people know how much work goes into this type of thing they may gloss over, but I know it's usually hours, not seconds or minutes.

It's really great to see Miranda put it together and he had the advantage of getting in nearly 150 plate appearances during the 2020 season through Puerto Rico leagues to work on his game. It's hard to put together 331 plate appearances of dominance on luck in general, but Miranda's run has shown reasonable peripherals as well. Miranda's BB and K rates have gotten even better at AAA, it's very encouraging. I'd be totally confident in Miranda as the real deal if it weren't for the Chris Parmelee's.