bean5302

Honestly, the most successful Twins teams since the 1991 World Series were run by Bill Smith in my opinion. He inherited a team in an absolutely critical state and made a ton of important extensions to keep the core competitive. His staff also drafted well enough and his free agent signings were solid, too. Unfortunately, his trades were awful. Smith only had 4 years as the Twins' GM and presided over 2 division championships. Aaron Hicks, Kyle Gibson, Brian Dozier, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano. They all came out of the Bill Smith drafts/signings. Not an astonishing run of success, but better than anything we've seen since. 4 All Stars in 4 years. It does tend to take about 6-10 years to see peak performance from drafts, but it's not unreasable to start taking stock in what you have in 4-5 years. Usually, the cream rises to the top quickly. In any case, Falvey and Levine will be fighting for their jobs next year and they won't have a leash longer than mid-2023 if things don't start panning out.

My only concern about Balazovic is whether or not he's wearing down. I agree with the sentiment here... you don't have 25 inning scoreless streaks without "gaining traction" in AA. Having a bit of difficulty understanding why Palacios isn't in AAA at this point, but I do get the strong feeling the front office gets awfully arrogant about their position once they've written a prospect off, no matter how quickly they do so.

I favor the go-for it now approach and "expect" the minor league system churning out big time talent over the next two years as guys like Winder, Enlow, Balazovic, Sands, Canterino, Woods-Richardson, Lewis and Martin become ready. Signing some short term, mediocre talent to keep the Twins within potential reach of .500 and wait for the pipeline to "prove itself" before investing is tantamount to a vote of no confidence from the front office, and the front office's job was to fix the pipeline and get the Twins back on the path to the World Series (as far as I'm concerned).

How confident are you in the FO to turn this around? That was the question posed. I answered the question. Yes, it was easy

The Twins need 4 starting pitchers next year since the only definite rotation spot they have is Maeda. I feel their legitimate rotation options are, in order of likeliness: Ober Ryan Winder Balazovic Sands I suspect the Twins will plan to use Ober and Ryan and fill two other spots in free agency. How the Twins view their 2022 season will be formed entirely on the pitching rotation they decide upon. Verlander and Stroman = aiming for World Series. Pineda and Cueto = likely statements about how 2022 didn't go the way they were expecting and hoping on their way to 90 losses. I honestly admit in a previous topic, I think the Twins will go with Pineda and Cueto (exactly my picks).

...let me try and fix this further... I make no statements and have no significant opinion in regard to mentors and their function across all of society in general and not limited to college studies, mental health, career guidance, makeup application, professional networking, cooking, fishing, woodworking, automotive repair, boat captaining, hair styling or social media influencer status; however, I believe making a decision in regard to that player's status as a player in the Twins' organization including, but not limited to offering, signing, retaining, acquiring, assigning, trading, releasing or rostering veteran MLB players specifically for their ability to mentor younger players on the Twins without said player being expected to provide value at or above their compensation level and with the overall goal of contributing to the team's chances at a World Series Championship is overrated.

First off, I didn't really think it was necessary to quantify my comment about mentoring being in regard to the Twins and the value of signing players specifically to be mentors without pulling their weight on the field directly through performance. Let me rephrase: I make no statements and have no significant opinion in regard to mentors and their function across all of society in general and not limited to college studies, mental health, career guidance, makeup application, professional networking, cooking, fishing, woodworking, automotive repair, boat captaining, hair styling or social media influencer status; however, I believe signing veteran MLB players specifically for their ability to mentor younger players on the Twins without said player being expected to provide value at or above their compensation level and with the overall goal of contributing to the team's chances at a World Series Championship is overrated. Second, really? This level of personal attacking and fighting over Mike Pineda? If Mike Pineda is expected to be some sort of major component to the Twins' success, the team has serious issues, haha.

I think the Twins have a great deal of potential. I think the additions we got at the trade deadline this year are exciting and I'm anxious to see what happens with the 2022 CBA and whether or not the Twins will take advantage of what looks to be arguably the best free agent class in history. Garver and Jeffers / Rortvedt seem like a really nice combination at C I have faith Kirilloff will be a very good 1B The Twins have solid options at 2B with Polanco or Arraez. Donaldson is a valuable 3B and Miranda could very well supplant him. I'm not excited with Larnach playing LF Buxton. Expectations of Buxton playing a full season (150G+) ever in his career seem unreasonable; however, the Twins have some redundancy here with Kepler/Celestino/Cave Kepler is a solid RF The rotation is full of holes and question marks, but there are at least a couple guys who should be solid in the rotation starting next year in our MiLB system and the free agent market is awash with talent. The bullpen is full of holes and question marks, but again, we should have a couple really good options coming up from our MiLB system and finding decent pieces in FA isn't generally hard. Sano as a DH is probably replacement level, but Rooker or Larnach or Donaldson can ensure we get value here. I don't see the Twins as lost cause for 2022, but with so many question marks, I expect the team will take a conservative approach and try to build a contender for cheap rather than spend on better known quantities. Just have to wait and see. The next few months are going to be exciting in my opinion.

I have absolutely no confidence in the front office to turn this around because I have no confidence in the ownership. That said, I fully believe the Twins could compete next year if they wanted to.

That said... the Twins feel very much like a "Minnesota" team who plays up to or down to the level of their competition so frequently. If an opposing team lights them up, they'll score a bunch of runs, but if a Twins starter is throwing a gem, the hitters all have the sun in their eyes. Maybe a great start from a Twins pitcher is so rare the batters just get mesmerized by the special event?

Yeah, it's not uncommon for teams to claim players and then immediately DFA them to try and pass them through waivers. See our old friend Jake Reed. He may never play in another game this season as teams line up to DFA, claim, repeat. It does really feel like that's another thing the MLBPA should address.

I don't see any of the pitchers listed (or Berrios) as an ace. I wouldn't feel comfortable with any of them lining up against a top 10 pitcher in MLB.

I can agree with what you said was your primary point with there being little or no evidence Berrios hated the Twins organization and couldn't wait to leave. In regard to the quote above, if the Twins were already offering 5 / 110MM, and Berrios was countering with 5 / 130MM, I don't think he gets traded because that's too close not to negotiate (in my opinion). If it comes out the Twins were offering 6 / 105MM or something like that, I'd be inclined to put Falvey and Levine in the stocks and throw rotten tomatoes at them. My position is the Berrios ask was so far out of the realm of the Twins' comfort zone that it was apparent we weren't going to do it. How far would that have to be? I'd think 6+ years and $150MM+ would put us there and I'd want absolutely no part of that deal if I were the Twins' front office or a twins fan.

The top 50, top 100 etc prospect lists involve all speculation and guesswork. They're nice for casual fans like me so I can have a much less biased source for information and expectations, but it's not like they're hard set. For example. Baseball Prospectus had the 2015 top 10 Twins, how they ranked in the top 101 in MLB that year and how I see their current / historical mixed value. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/25324/2015-prospects-minnesota-twins-top-10-prospects/ Byron Buxton 1 in MLB - Daily MLB player Miguel Sano 14th in MLB - Borderline MLB talent Alex Meyer 32nd in MLB - Bust Kohl Stewart 54th in MLB - Bust Jose Berrios 75th in MLB - All Star Nick Gordon - Bust Lewis Thorpe - Bust Nick Burdi - Bust Jorge Polanco - All Star Stephen Gonsalves - Bust The same list from MLB.com listed: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2015?list=min Buxton - Regular Player Berrios - All Star Jay - Bust Polanco - All Star Gordon - Bust Kepler - Regular Player Stewart - Bust Meyer - Bust Gonsalves - Bust Brett-Walker II - Bust Chargois - Middle Relief? Burdi - Bust Rogers - All Star Closer Thorpe - Bust Cabbage - Bust Blankenhorn - Bust Reed - Bust Turner, Stuart - Bust Harrison, Travis - Bust Romero, Fernano - Bust The trend is obviously in favor of the lists, but they're hardly absolutes. Prospects at the top of the lists are more likely to be MLB quality and higher quality than players further down, but even players low on the lists can become studs (Taylor Rogers).

Well I sure have and I find the loss of big parts of people's lives to be emotional, even when there are mixed feelings on the change. Not wanting to stay in Minnesota but liking his experience with the Twins are not mutually exclusive. Finding out which players cry when traded is not information which generally interests me so I don't seek it out. I don't remember any player crying. I didn't hear Berrios cried until this article. Most fans would consider anything at 5+ years and $110MM+ reasonable.

Agree with the popular sentiment. Trading all the players listed above would be tantamount to a complete rebuild fire sale. Polanco and Garver would absolutely have to go as well as the list above. Each player needs to be evaluated on their own as contracts needs are determined and offers for players are reviewed. The Twins have virtually nothing solid behind the players mentioned above.

This result, in my opinion, would be utterly fantastic. I don't share your optimism the twins have 5 prospect starters who are all going to pitch to 3.25-4.00 ERAs or so over 175+ innings each by 2023.

Ever cry after the end of a bad relationship or when you moved out of a place you didn't necessarily like? Regardless of how Berrios felt about the Twins, I would have been really surprised if he wasn't moved emotionally about the relationship ending. There was a lot invested in his time with the Twins, even if the end is bittersweet. The tears don't mean much to me in regard to whether or not he actually wanted to stay with the Twins. I'm sure we'll hear rumors leak out about what the Twins were or were not offering as time ticks by. As it stands right now, I view this as Berrios' decision not to sign a deal which most fans would have considered reasonable based on the efforts to sign Buxton.

I wouldn't sign Rodriguez or Ray regardless. They're not guys who could potentially replace a top of the rotation starter. Rodriguez looks like a bad luck candidate, but I don't know as I believe in the kind of luck he's having. His barrel rate, exit velocity and hard hit rates are all better than average, but his BABIP against is .369 and he's just getting shelled, not to mention he's giving up a lot of homers. He's also been totally ineffective at stranding runners with a miserable 64% strand rate blowing his ERA totally up. Reminds me too much of Ricky Nolasco. Robbie Ray has reached back to find 2.5mph more on his fastball than he had in 2019, returning to his career peak. He's always been prone to giving up HRs and this year is benefitting from a .270 BABIP and 89.7% strand rate. He's been super inconsistent over his career and he has a propensity to struggle with a similar zone% as Francisco Liriano had. His FIP looks reasonable at 3.93, but that's not what I would want for a Berrios replacement on a long term contract because if his change in velocity and the sudden ability to throw strikes don't stick, he'll tank. Syndergaard started throwing bullpens and the Mets have announced they'll probably use him out of the bullpen if he makes it back this year. I'm assuming that's for 2 reasons. The biggest of the two is they want Syndergaard to accept the qualifying offer they're absolutely going to make to him so putting him in the bullpen will likely hurt his value. I don't think the Twins have the risk tolerance to make him a legitimate offer even if Syndergaard does decline the qualifying offer, but I don't think he will. Gausman and Stroman do look like they're going to hit free agency. Gausman has been on record as prefering to stay in San Francisco. Of the two, Stroman would be my preference.

As I recall, Molitor didn't believe Polanco was capable of playing short due to his arm, but he wasn't given a lot of choice in the matter. Molitor is on record talking about improvements in throwing and footwork Polanco had made as helpful, but it was often with the caveats it wasn't universally accepted Polanco was in the right spot at SS. Also, I'm not sure I have seen a SS worse than Polanco. Trevor Plouffe's 2011 experience at SS grades out better than Polanco's 2016 in terms of UZR/150 and fielding percentage. Polanco was more error prone than Plouffe when they were both rookies playing SS. Polanco remains, literally, the worst starting shortstop in MLB from 2016-2020 with a UZR of -25.9 over 3.900 innings. No shortstop in MLB had a worse average UZR/150 (-11.0) and played over 1,500 innings over the same span. No shortstop has played as many innings as Polanco with such a low UZR/150 since the year 2000. Polanco stands alone at the very bottom. To get him out of the bottom 5, I had to drop the innings requirement to just 1,000 innings (less than a single full season) which expanded the number of players to 151 since 2000. Polanco was still 140th of 151 at that point.

Some pretty bullish folks on Polanco and his value. I honestly don't know how much of a leader Polanco is, and it's worth noting he's only 27. I view Polanco as expendable because Arraez is just as good, plays the same position and is less expensive. I do think Polanco is a solid enough player who I'd want to hang on to if it weren't for Arraez. I do believe Arraez is a little better. I see no reason not to agree that Polanco is likely to remain in that 3-4 WAR category. 2016 (270 PA) = -0.1 fWAR vs. 0.4 bWAR 2017 (544 PA) = 1.6 fWAR vs. 1.4 bWAR 2018 (333 PA) = 1.4 fWAR vs. 0.9 bWAR 2019 (704 PA) = 4.0 fWAR vs. 4.7 bWAR 2020 (226 PA) = 0.8 fWAR vs. 0.3 bWAR 2021 (415 PA) = 2.4 fWAR vs. 3.3 bWAR

It's not 2020 anymore even if it feels like it watching the news these days hahahaha

Berrios was not interested in signing with the Twins likely at or below market value. That was clear. Would you be okay with 8 years and $280MM for Berrios? An absolute massive and guaranteed overpay so he had no choice but to sign the worst contract in Minnesota Twins history? A contract which would utterly cripple the franchise for the next decade? If so, I'm not sure you're much of a Twins fan. If not, then the Twins had 2 options: 1. Let Berrios walk at the end of 2022 with (maybe) a comp round pick for 2023 or 2. Trade him. The Twins chose number 2 and now have 2 top 50 level prospects in the high minors with super high ceilings and expected low floors.

Ober is averaging 17 pitches per inning this year (16.8). At 101 pitches, he'd have 6.0 inning starts. He's clearly being pulled early from games, and that makes sense with his extremely limited innings history. Either that or "Early Hook Baldelli" is just being himself, lol.

In all seriousness, it's barely been over a week. Also, while it seems like Rogers and Santana injured the same area, that's where the similarity ends. Rogers has a strained pulley tendon, which is almost exclusively seen in activities like rock climbing. Since Rogers evidently must use one heck of a grip, haha. Visiting a rock climbing site shows the only time surgical treatment is recommended for them is when it's pretty dang bad. Based on what I'm seeing, I can't imagine he'll be back this year, but the good news is return to full sport activities, even in the worst case of injury and surgical repair, shows Rogers would be ready for spring training next year. https://gripped.com/indoor-climbing/the-dreaded-finger-pulley-injury/ Santana had no tendon damage, but it had built up scar tissue due to a long term chronic stress which resulted in his surgery to perform a capsular debridement on his knuckle. Basically, "trigger finger" surgery. Santana elected to wait until February to have the procedure performed and it generally takes 6 weeks to 3 months (sometimes longer) to heal up from what I've read. It sounded like Santana's surgery recovery wasn't as quick as he was hoping and he lost an entire spring training so his shoulder and arm strength weren't built up for MLB action. He lost 4mph on his fastball as a result. Santana gained 1mph back in 2019, but was a pretty late signing. He's throwing at his pre-surgery speed this year.