bean5302

I have no faith in Sano. It's awfully hard to ignore he's going to finish this year as the 3rd in the last 4 where he produced 0.5 WAR or less. He's a pure DH at this point with a -42.50 UZR/150 at 1B and it's just bizzare the Twins could keep trotting him out there. He might actually have 1.0 WAR this year if he wasn't in the field booting half the balls that come his way.

Just working purely off memory in the moment Sano will be back on the roster next year, no question, but some things are likely to move around.

Fun story for sure! Like so many no-hitters, the defense really came through (including Gilbert himself) catching 3 hard hit line drives in the infield along with a leaping catch to save a home run in left. Otto, almost too close to home on that one. The last thing I need to hear is a connection like Wells throwing a no-hitter in Baltimore and last I heard, they're strongly considering moving him into the rotation. Whew!

I think opening day 2023 is very aggressive for Lewis. Unless a completely torn ACL and 2 years away from competitive baseball makes him better. Lewis is going to be very rusty going into next year. I don't understand the expectation he could be an opening day 2022 MLB or AAA player. He didn't even perform adequately at AA two years ago. If I were the Twins, I start him in A+ and give him a chance to get some confidence and his bearings with the hope he catches on to promote him to AA after 30 games or so. Then give him the rest of the year at AA unless he looks like Miranda has this year and then maybe a promotion to AAA after the trade deadline. To be on the opening day 2023 roster, Lewis would have to A ) Recover from a completely torn ACL and get back to full speed and look good before spring training games start. B ) Knock the cover off the ball while playing vastly improved defense at AA for at least 75 games. C ) Continue to shred and play great defense at AAA through the rest of July/August after his promotion D ) Look great on a September call up to the MLB team. If Lewis does all that, he'll be showing a high likelihood of fulfilling his potential ceiling as an MVP caliber shortstop. What an ask considering the situation!

If I were running the MLBPA, I would be aiming for the following: Maximum team control age 31 at the start of season. MLB Service Year = 75 days on the MLB roster for team control purposes All players who have not become MiLB free agents or cleared waivers have 2 pre-arb years as if they're "Super Twos" All players have a maximum of 2 arbitration eligible years. Any player clearing DFA/outright waivers has maximum team control reduced to 1 pre-arb. Any MiLB free agent has a maximum team control reduced to 1 pre-arb Competitive Balance Tax: Luxury tax to be applied in the reverse manner based on a salary floor of 45% of the threshold to increase competition for free agents. i.e. 2021 = $210MM *.45 = $94.50MM. $74.50MM to $94.49MM = 20% tax on amount below $94.50MM 1st year, 30% 2nd year, 50% 3rd year. $54.50MM to $74.49MM = 12% surcharge tax in addition to tax above. Less than $54.50MM = 42.5% surcharge 1st year and 45% in subsequent years + 10 position loss in MLB draft. example Cleveland = $48.74MM payroll this year = 94.50 - 48.74 = $45.76MM below minimum, 2 consecutive years. (30% tax + 45% surcharge) + 10 position first round draft pick loss. Surcharge = $34.32MM tax.

While batting averages have absolutely tumbled, on base percentages are similar to 1990. Actual OPS is up quite a bit as singles and doubles have been replaced with home runs, but the added batting average makes wOBA between 1990 and 2021 hitters pretty similar. 3/6 with one double (OPS 1.166) (wOBA .506) vs. 1/5 with one home run, 4 strikeouts and a walk (OPS 1.200) (wOBA .445). I honestly believe strikeouts should have a different factor in the calculation of wOBA because they virtually never lead to an opportunity for a runner to reach base or a runner to advance. That said, I don't know as it would change anything because if strikeouts were less valuable from a batter's profile, pitchers would be pressed even harder to obtain them. Personally, I believe we've swung to the other extreme end of baseball based on metrics. The games hitters and pitchers aren't any more or less successful than they were before, they're just much less interesting to watch.

Yeah, they combined to basically throw a Maddux!

While there's a hint of truth to this, I think it's a little too optimistic. Guys who are exposed to waivers like this are more often players their front offices did not believe in at all. Despite not believing in those players, their front office felt like it would be irresponsible to write them completely off before seeing if the player could beat the odds at the MLB level. It may feel like a foreign concept to Twins fans because our front office doesn't seem to operate this way. It seems our front office is much more confident in their player evaluations without seeing them at the MLB level.

I think versatility is great. This front office lacks understanding versatility is supposed to include competence. I think Falvey jumped forward through the part where Hatteberg had to learn how to play 1B and thought Wash was joking when he said it was incredibly hard to play first base while his hero Billy Beane said its not that hard. Just moving guys around doesn't make them "versatile" it makes them bad defenders and the Twins have the 3rd worst defense in the game.

It's well established you're angry about the Twins' performance. The members of this site have certainly picked up on it.

The Twins have moved on from Gordon. He's not even playing SS in AAA anymore, he's being used as an IF/OF utility guy. He's not going to get a 40 man roster spot. 0% Austin Martin couldn't supplant Palacios at SS. 0% Jose Miranda hasn't played any significant time at SS since 2016. 0% Jorge Polanco. Yeah, I could see the Twins shifting him back over to SS despite being the worst fielding shortstop in the game in the past 20 years. 40% Royce Lewis. It would be totally bonkers to make him opening day shortstop. Lewis is a prospect who wasn't even treading water at AA at the plate while being absolutely a nightmare in the field in his last full competition experience 2 years ago and is now rehabbing a full tear of his ACL. 0% JT Riddle. Yeah. MiLB roster filler entering his second year or arbitration eligibility isn't happening. 0%. Drew Maggi? He's arbitration eligible next year so he'll be non-tendered. 0% Jermaine Palacios. I have no idea on this one. He's one of the best SS at AA this year and certainly top 3 who is still sitting in AA despite the fact the Twins have nothing blocking him or on the roster. I really expect the Twins to leave him off the roster. 5% Andrelton Simmons. LOL all you want, everything seems to point to Simmons being back next year IMHO. He's still playing every day and the Twins haven't even bothered to look at Palacios despite a stellar performance in AA. It's ridiculous, but I can't see why the Twins would be playing Simmons every day at this point if they hadn't decided this year is a fluke and they'll be ohhhhhhh so smart when they sign him for peanuts and they fix him to return him to top form next year... puke. 50%

It's the best I can do to explain their moves or non-moves like playing Simmons every day and leaving Palacios in AA. The note about the front offices' hubris from above does seem a bit likely.

There isn't a need to apologize for an opinion, it's just not what a lot of fans were really hoping for the Twins to do. Honestly, I could see a 100% in house roster: C - Garver/Jeffers 1B - Kirilloff 2B - Polanco 3B - Miranda / Donaldson SS - Palacios UI - Arraez: LF - Refsnyder CF - Buxton RF - Kepler UO - Celestino DH - Donaldson/Larnach SP1 - Maeda SP2 - Balazovic SP3 - Ryan SP4 - Ober SP5 - Winder BP1 - Rogers BP2 - Duffey BP3 - Moran BP4 - Duran BP5 - Thielbar BP6 - Gant BP7 - Dobnak BP8 - Stashak The roster construction above would be totally reasonable for the Twins if they weren't intending on competing for the division title next year. Could it still happen? If people stayed healthy and about 5 of the 8 "iffy" folks in that roster played well or up to their absolute ceilings (like Balazovic) the roster would be potentially competitive during the regular season. That rotation would almost certainly be doomed in the playoffs though. Worst case scenario for that roster? Probably not terrible. Maybe 90 losses.

Most logical explanations? Falvey doesn't believe in the talent level or readiness of the prospects at the high minors. Falvey is stronly confident in what they have at the high minors and has already decided who is going to be on the 40 man next year. He doesn't believe it's necessary to showcase the players.

I'm also of the opinion Lewis is overrated right now. Poor pitch recognition led to a poor walk rate. Awkward, slow and huge leg kick contributed to the poor strikeout rate. Miserable defense at SS in 2019. To top it off, a complete tear of his ACL which has a risk of robbing Lewis of some of his elite speed and quickness needed for shortstop/center field. By all accounts Lewis has elite athleticism and a fantastic work ethic and attitude, but all the issues plus 2 years of no regular competitive play is a lot to overcome. Lewis isn't going to have much time to get to work next year to start the season and if he's not significantly improved by mid season at AA, he could fall out of the top 10. Martin Woods-Richardson Balazovic - 3 pitches limits his ceiling Lewis Duran - Until Duran gets some control and is able to prove his curve and change work, he's likely a pullpen arm. I'd consider him a less talented version of Graterol right now.

Also to clarify, I have no memory of who mentioned Harper. I think multiple people did. I didn't find it valuable to call anybody out by name as, again, I think most of this topic is just frustration.

I was kinda wondering the same thing. Saw "Ryan" used a couple times and was thinking... does he mean "John Gant"? or was he thinking "Gant Ryan" confusing Joe Ryan with Gant? I didn't think he meant Ryan Jeffers, haha

I think that's a fair 97% ceiling for Larnach. Something in the 3.0-3.5 WAR career year with his average year in the 2.0-2.5 WAR range. I think Larnach's 50% is Delmon Young.

For a team with almost nothing but question marks on the mound to fill 13 positions "Mostly Set Up" seems pretty confident.

Public figures are held to different standards in our society, like it or not. Simmons decided to make his personal opinion public on the platform most associated with maelstroms of hate, outrage and personal attack regardless of the topic in the world today. High profile professional athlete's, especially in team owned sports, have contracts containing clauses about personal conduct. These clauses are quite wide in scope and while I don't believe they're intended to curtail freedom of speech, they're designed with the expecation employees are consciencious with their behavior and statements. Have you ever noticed how many pro athletes stay further away from politics than the story of Star Wars takes place from our galaxy? This article was probably ill-advised because of the likelihood it would lead to the creation of a rift in the community, yet I believe it also falls under the scope of Twins related content because the straw which broke the camels back in roster decisions have definitely been made in similar circumstances. Andrelton Simmons' statement was straight up stupid (because it took a minority position on a very hot button topic) and it does potentially impact not only his position on the Twins, but also whether or not he receives a contract offer this offseason. It all depends on how much it blows up. Right now, it's a non-issue because no national media has picked it up; they're focused on Trevor Bauer and Kirk Cousins.

Arraez is an average 2B at the MLB level despite the constant Twins fan bashing. He's just as good as Polanco because Arraez has a steady glove where Polanco is notoriously error prone despite his great range. Severino is probably about the same potential as Arraez. Below average-ish speed/range, well above average arm for 2B, but the Twins keep shifting Severino around and his error rate is very poor.

Palacios is a MiLB free agent at the end of the year and is not on the 40 man roster. He's reached base safely in 12 straight games (.304/.365/.717 OPS 1.083 9.6% BB, 13.4% K) has owned an OPS north of .800 all but 1 month (July .667) this year. He hasn't committed an error in 25 games while playing nearly exclusive shortstop. Palacios also leads all AA shortstops in home runs and is top 10 in all of the minors, has been great on the basepaths stealing 14 bases in 19 attempts and has a .265 average despite a potentially lower than expected BABIP given his speed. Palacios also has a BB rate 1/2 his K rate and over the past month, his BB and K rate are nearly identical. Yet, Simmons is still playing SS every day. May Line: .311/.398/.478 OPS .876, ISO .267, 12.6% BB, 25.2% K with 6 errors June Line: .250/.348/.490 OPS .838, ISO .240, 9.8% BB, 22.3% K with 4 errors July Line: .221/.303/.364 OPS .667, ISO .143, 10.0% BB, 22.2% K with 2 errors Aug Line: .279/.354/.628 OPS .982, ISO .349, 10.4% BB, 14.6% K with 0 errors Overall: .265/.352/.474 OPS .826, ISO .209, 10.8% BB, 22.1% K with 12 errors I can't see anything more within reason Palacios could have done this year to get called up. The Twins even have two prospects they may want to play SS at AA other than Palacios right now. Martin and Steer. With about a dozen reasons to call Palacios' number, the Twins have refused to do so. There are 4 things you could argue, in order of likelihood. The Twins have already written him off and think of Palacios as MiLB roster filler who's just getting lucky (most likely) The Twins think Palacios is a potential starting shortstop, but want to evaluate other unlikely contributors who are hanging onto a fringey 40 man roster spot so they don't want to give Palacios a spot on the 40 man yet. The Twins think Palacios is a potential starting shortstop, but they think if Palacios stays in AA, nobody else in MLB will notice him and they may be able to re-sign him to a MiLB contract without having to give him a 40 man roster spot and use him as a potential backup next year. The Twins think Palacios is a future All Star starting shortstop and are trying to manipulate his service time. Btw, this post is fun because Palacios is just playing so well by the stat lines. It's all lot more about the positivity around Palacios and how he's been consistently playing great as an underdog all year than it is about the Twins' ineptitude. Most of the other "underdogs" have some pretty concerning peripherals. High K rates, low BB rates, unusual BABIP, granite gloves, iron boots, etc. Palacios has improved his K rate all season long. His BB rate has been sustained since 3 years ago in Tampa, his ISO has always been playable, his glove has shaken off the rust and become rock solid, he's stolen 5 of his last 6 attempts. I mean, it really seems like almost every facet of his game has become more polished while sustaining a very high level of play at the plate. If the Twins think Palacios isn't going to be picked up by another team, they're dreaming. Ultimately, I still believe Palacios is far from a sure thing at the MLB level, but it's hard to ignore how well he's been playing at AA all season long. Sustained success beyond 300 plate appearances without obvious big red flags isn't usually flukey at the high minors. If we eliminate the missed season last year, Palacios would be in his age 23 season this year (he just turned 25 a few days ago).

It was so very close at the plate. I don't think Jeffers could have played it better. Polanco's throw was weak and one hopped/rolled to home from short right field to the 1st base side, pulling Jeffers away from the optimal tagging position on teh 3rd base side. If Jeffers blocks the plate, that's an automatic safe. Jeffers left foot was basically touching home, he was positioned perfectly in front of the plate and when the ball reached his glove, I'd say Kiermaier was about 6 feet from touching and already beginning his drop to slide. That's about 24 ft/sec at the end, 6 feet equals a 1/4 of a second for Jeffers to spin, pick up Kiermier, and apply the tag. Kiermaier kept his body behind home and touched with his hand which was already past Jeffers at the spin, giving Jeffers no good target for the tag.

When I see comments comparing a center field/catching prospect with a once in a lifetime talent at the plate (Bryce Harper) to Trevor Larnach who was taken 20th overall, I feel like it's just a crazy amount of frustration blowing up. Harper was the universal, obvious, no contest first overall pick. He made Byron Buxon look like a roadside turd on draft day. Harper, at 17 (got his GED a year early for draft eligibility), was being called the best prospect in MLB history and it was universally accepted Harper was likely a Hall of Famer. At 17. Like seriously. Best prospect in MLB history vs 20th overall pick. Harper got comparisons to Alex Rodriguez (prime) at the plate and Joe Mauer (prime) at catcher. Larnach's draft profile? Hits balls hard with potential plus power, can talk a walk, fringe corner outfield defense. He wasn't considered a sure fire MLB talent. Here is an EXCELLENT pre-draft analysis on Trevor Larnach http://dodgersdigest.com/2018/05/16/2018-mlb-draft-profile-of-1b-trevor-larnach-oregon-state-university/ It includes pre-draft rankings from a number of sources showing the Twins probably reached a bit for Larnach. It basically says Larnach was going to be fringy at the corners with a likely move to 1B where his bat was unlikely to play. He was drafted for his polish at college level rather than projectability and there was nothing to fall back on if his bat didn't play. Larnach pre-draft rank 2080 Baseball: 27 Baseball America: 27 ESPN: 47 FanGraphs: 13 MLB.com: 24 Perfect Game: N/A Scouting Baseball: 20 Btw, reaching is typical of this front office. They do a lot lot lot of reaching for prospects. Like this year. 2 of their first 3 guys were big to huge reaches based on their pre-draft rank and even Chase Petty was taken at his absolute highest rank position vs. a lot of sources ranking Petty much lower.

Baldelli chose to play Larnach at the corners as he's making out the lineup cards and choosing who plays from game to game. Sano can play DH or 1B. Kirilloff was his first choice to move to 1B instead of Larnach despite as Kirilloff is a much better corner outfielder. I do realize Larnach has virtually no time at 1B, it's still Baldelli's call on whether or not Larnach is a corner outfielder. I know folks are going to absolutely hate this, but Miguel Sano was probably going to be better in the OF than Larnach by the statistics. Even now, Nelson Cruz might be better in the outfield than Larnach, but I don't think it would have been worth the injury risk. Larnach is not a good option in the corner outfield spot. I don't think anybody is debating that. If Larnach has to worry about his defensive value, he won't be making it in MLB. I have no issues trading Larnach if the Twins think they can get good value for him right now, but if/until his bat wakes up, he's not going to bring much back.