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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Ober's been a bright spot this season for sure and I think there's no doubt the team is looking at him as a rotation piece next year. Given the lengthy research showing innings limits and pitch limits have no value, you'd think all the analytics oriented front offices would finally accept that, but it seems like the dark ages of arm wear myths will continue to reign supreme. That said, it seems like a lot of pitchers are running on empty as the season winds down. If the Twins have reason to suspect Ober is wearing down, giving him extra rest is the obvious answer.
  2. bean5302
    Glad to hear Alcala is doing better. Any "arm" related strain is stressful for a pitcher and I don't think anybody enjoys seeing guys who've put decades of work into their craft forced to sit and watch the games instead of playing them because they're hurt.
  3. bean5302
    Based on how Strotman has been performing, I think the Twins are actively working with him on his approach so I don't think they'd call him up and interfere with whatever they're working on. Moran is a no-brainer. Really don't understand the lack of a call up there. Relief arms on the 40 man are easy decisions. I'd also be interested in the Twins looking at Cano.
  4. bean5302
    Detroit view - Fast enough to play center field, excellent power. If he can OPS even .600, he's good enough as a 4th outfielder with potential to be far more and we're not aiming at competing this year.
  5. bean5302
    Neither Boyd nor Maggi are on the 40 man roster right now. At the moment, the 40 man has 46 total people, including 6 folks in the 60 man IL (Kirilloff, Garlick, Stashak, Smeltzer, Dobnak and Colina). Dobnak is about to come off the 60 man which could create a roster crunch of its own. Maeda, Canterino and Rogers are all potential 60 man IL additions, but adding any of the three wouldn't be fun to see. Maeda looks to potentially have some UCL damage, but they're still getting opinions. Canterino having an elbow strain after being shut down with a previous elbow strain sounds incredibly ominous. Rogers should be to the point where he's doing finger movements. I'd imagine more will be known about his potential to avoid surgery soon.
  6. bean5302
    You do the math then. www.fangraphs.com. Knock yourself out.
  7. bean5302
    While it's a down week for Palacios, I think he only started in 3 games and was used as a pinch hitter 3 times, getting on base 2x as a pinch hitter or something like that. No doubt about it, though, not his finest week at the plate. Sabato has been much better in August with tons of the expected power showing through. It looks like Sabato may have made a major change in his approach to not be so passive? The power exploded as the ludicrous walk rate tanked and the K rate remained the same. No matter how I slice it, though, K rates above 30% in the low minors say non-prospect to me. Pre-Aug = .185/.370/.290 OPS .660, 21.4% BB, 31.5% K August = .208/.339/.688 OPS 1.026. 11.8% BB, 33.9% K Matt Wallner falls into the same boat. His triple slash looks good, but the K rate is awful.
  8. bean5302
    I agee. I don't believe in his recent stats and I think it's too late to view Buxton as a prospect who took it to the next level. You're putting faith in the recent excellent performance at the plate as proof Buxton was still growing and did take it to the next level. It results in us having polar opposite opinions on him. September probably wouldn't change either of our opinions on the subject. Luckily, neither one of us have jobs depending on how Buxton performs or what contract he might sign.
  9. bean5302
    Yes. That's my reasoning. 25% of Buxton's hits in 2020 came from infield grounders. Make that 15% to be close to his average year. In 2019, his infield hit rate was 18%. Drop that to 12% (still good but simulating a lost step). Results: 2020 From .254/.267/.577 OPS .844 to .231/.244/.544 OPS .788. He literally drops over 50 points of OPS. 2019 From .262/.314/.513 OPS .827 to .247/.298/.498 OPS .776. Again, a 50 point OPS drop. I don't believe people realize just how unbelievably important Buxton's ability to beat that ground ball out by a step is to his game at the plate. He gets a lot of his OPS from those hits.
  10. bean5302
    The front office has no proven options at CF for next year and they probably don't have a great option the year after in the works, either and I'd like to see the Twins try and compete. I'd say the Pohlads qualify as "deep pockets" and decline doesn't mean Buxton is DFA'd next year.
  11. bean5302
    This isn't about his range in CF. I have no questions he'll continue to be a good center fielder. This has to do with his infield hits. Buxton gets so many of his hits by a single step. His home plate to 1B rate is ultra-elite. He's the fastest player to 1B in baseball, period, and that is a huge component to his value at the plate because he does have a large number of weak contact, rollover hits in the infield. It only takes a step and many of those "hits" turn into outs.
  12. bean5302
    The A's just lost their best starting pitcher and have a very rough schedule ahead. The Yankees have a bit of a rough schedule, and the Red Sox, Mariners and Blue Jays seem to have have 50/50 good/bad teams to finish out the year. Even though I'd like to see a shake up in the playoffs, I don't think the Blue Jays or Mariners are likely to close the gap since neither one of them has a leg up on schedule, but I'd probably give the Blue Jays the edge as spoilers for Boston or NY.
  13. bean5302
    Strotman entered 2018 as a borderline top 20 organizational prospect for Tampa and averaged 3.5 BB/9 vs. 8.4 K/9 in Regular-A ball in that 2018 season. That's not very good, but it's certainly possible to show a big rebound from something like that. It's just that Strotman hasn't rebounded. He's continued to have high walk rates year after year. You can blame it on innings and the UCL not feeling 100% "normal" in 2019, but it's pretty hard to buy that this year. Strotman has improved his walk rate a lot with the Saints, but it looks like it's coming at the cost of strikeouts and hits. Even with the Saints, Strotman's overally BB/9 is still 3.8, and that's likely to balloon against must better MLB hitters. Fangraphs and MLB have Strotman's command at 45 and 50, respectively. It's not like there's no hope for Strotman, but he owns a WHIP of 1.47 on the season in AAA and it's gotten worse since he seems to have concentrated on reducing his walks.
  14. bean5302
    Yes. I believe he's in decline because speed is so integral to his value. 245 plate appearances in 63 games. That's the last two years for Buxton. The max I'd go for Buxton is 3 years and $45MM.
  15. bean5302
    I am most certainly NOT all knowing LOL. Baseball Reference and Fangraphs are usually where I look and my opinions are rarely based on watching players because I don't trust my eyes at all. There are a lot of members on this site who scout players way more in person and they see much more than I do. Stats don't always tell everything, but I think they're helpful in avoiding emotional bias. When we got Strotman and Ryan, it looked like an absolute fleecing of arguably the best FO in MLB, and that's a red flag right away. I immediately started looking into peripherals and saw Strotman's ERA was an illustion at Tampa's AAA affiliate, but Ryan looks like the real deal to me. His BB, K and WHIP rates look like they'll play.
  16. bean5302
    He's not. He's a .250 hitter in decline with 20-25 HR power over a full season.
  17. bean5302
    I'd trade Buxton if there's an offer which impresses me and not look back. I'd like an servicable CF or SS with 2+ years of team control and a top 50 prospect. I don't think Buxton is capable of producing more than 6.0 fWAR peak or 5.0 fWAR avg in 150 games which will never happen in his career. Buxton is good for 60-80 games a year which means the Twins have to essentially carry a 27 man roster just to offset Buxton's constant injuries.
  18. bean5302
    Strotman has an extended pre-Twins history of not being able to throw strikes. I think the Twins already won th trade with just Ryan so there must have been a huge amount of interest in Cruz. Strotman hasn't put up BB/9 numbers lower than 3.4 since his time in Low-A in 2017. Over full seasons, not lower than 4.5 since A ball in 2018. I consider Strotman a throw in at the end of the trade negotiations.
  19. bean5302
    Observation was he was pitching hurt. Shaking his arm multiple times between pitches while not hitting his spots. Baldelli actually had to address that question, but blew if off as normal this season for Maeda. From my understanding even Glavine (MLB play-by-play) was noting it as unusual during the game, I guess.
  20. bean5302
    Very nice to see Soularie collect a couple hits. He's missed a ton of time this year and I'm looking forward to seeing his athleticism on display!
  21. bean5302
    Buxton's assignment to AAA probably has less to do with how he feels swinging a bat and more to do with whether or not he has his timing down. Having Buxton flail hopelessly away at MLB pitching doesn't do him or the Twins any favors because Buxton's peformance impacts his arbitration value making the Twins look like they intentionally wanted Buxton to play poorly. If you watched the game, how did his timing on his other trips to the plate look? (legitimately asking)
  22. bean5302
    I should point out, I actually like rivalry games and I do think the Brewers vs. Twins (which does happen every year) is a good thing, but it doesn't need to happen more frequently in my opinion.
  23. bean5302
    You mean it gets two people already at least partially interested in football somewhat more interested in 2 football games a year? The closest team to the Twins is 6hrs away. Not sure what you mean by defending the White Sox? Why would they need to be defended? I don't recall any trash can banging scandals or them being exposed for winning any trophies for beating their arbitration players down.
  24. bean5302
    Chris Parmelee a24 season 2012 - .338/.457/.645 OPS 1.102, but it's not really apples to apples. Parmelee skipped AAA in 2011 for his cup of coffee, raked at the MLB level and made the 2012 opening day roster. He was then awful for 1-1/2 months with the Twins before getting demoted to AAA where he obliterated the ball to the posted line. Miranda has never been to the MLB level and he's never had the benefit of seeing MLB pitching so he could identify areas he could improve which were hidden against MiLB pitching. That's also why I think even a month or two in MLB can be incredibly valuable. MiLB players don't have the polish MLB players have. As a batter, for example, MLB pitchers will expose weaknesses a batter didn't know they had because MiLB pitchers were never able to exploit them. I also think it's why so many AAAA players are created after a brief MLB stint (the Chris Parmelee's).
  25. bean5302
    Maeda was pitching hurt and the Twins were facing one of the best starting pitchers in MLB. Seems like a little extra on the rage meter in here.
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