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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Strotman has always walked a small army of players. It's bound to come back and bite you hard and his xFIP showed great luck for Tampa and poor luck for the Twins. Not sure about Woods-Richardson. He's certainly rested since he didn't pitch in the Olympics, but they have him off site right now on the development list. He's eligible to go back to the Wind Surge tomorrow.
  2. bean5302
    Your personal opinion vs. a metric constructed by actual results from literally 10s of thousands of batted balls. I'm not sure which I would rely upon more? It's percentage. You find one or even a hundred examples and it's still statistically insignificant.
  3. bean5302
    With SF taking the opportunity to extend Crawford (the best short term option on the market for the Twins), I honestly expect the Blue Jays to put forth a big effort for Semien and probably get it done before year end. That leave Baez who has some super scary peripherals when it comes to long term contract he will get. Are the Twins going to outbid the Yankees for Story? The historic projected shortstop free agent market may start drying up before we even get to free agency.
  4. bean5302
    xBA, etc does not take direction into account. If you hit a 100mph line drive, it doesn't matter which direction in the field of play it goes. Even if it's 2 feet to the side of a defender, it's almost impossible for the defender to grab it. Defenders and batters do not know exactly where their batted balls are going to travel and hard hit balls don't allow for the defender to move much before the ball hits the ground.
  5. bean5302
    I agree. Gardy, Molitor and Ryan didn't like Vargas and were quick to kick him to the curb. The Twins were packed with 1B/DH's already so Vargas didn't have a clear role on the team.
  6. bean5302
    The 50/50 ceiling assumes Larnach never reaches his projected potential. Larnach has not shown power. Larnach walks more and strikes out less, but his hit tool looks much worse. Similar OBP, similar ISO. Your "projection" is the "supposed to be" 90% version of Larnach, not the 50/50 chance or what he's been so far. Larnach's ISO = 127. Young's career ISO = 138. There's also the chance we've already seen the best Larnach will ever show at the MLB level.
  7. bean5302
    I was about to argue Martin's floor being equal to Lewis, but even though I'm concerned about Lewis, I honestly still do think Lewis has a higher ceiling. The floor is definitely far higher for Martin, though. Martin will absolutely make MLB and he looks like a near guaranteed starter at least. My viewpoint on the Twins' system is pretty much the same as I've read from analysts. Very deep with a lot of middle value talent, but thin in regard to elite talent. One of the reasons it's so hard to rank the Twins' system is the difficulty in debating a clearly superior talent between numbers 14 and 30, for instance. I'd say the same is the case in 9-14 and 3-8.
  8. bean5302
    If you really want to get fun with SS, Eduardo Escobar is a free agent. Sprint speed is still very good and virtually identical to what it was in 2016. His 5-25 foot speed is nearly identical to Byron Buxton this year (not joking) in statcast. Escobar is not elite in terms of 5 foot speed and quickness, but it's entirely possible he would be an adequate shortstop placed into the position.
  9. bean5302
    Story may not be looking quite as good as the other elites, but if he's truly interested in signing a 1 year contract, he'd take the QO. Story is on pace for about 3.0 WAR this year. Sprint speed, K rate, BB rate, barrel rate, hard hit rate, exit velocity, launch angle, pull, center, opposite rates. They're all normal for him. His HR/FB rate and line drive rate are down a bit with his grounders up a bit, but honestly, it looks a lot like luck this year with his BABIP 40 points below his career average. His max and average home run distance is normal, but his average distance is down a bit, but it's still top 25%. Either Story has been really lucky for 3 years in a row or he's been unlucky this year. I suspect most teams are going to evaluate him as such. With 1.5 months left, there's still some time for Story to pad his stats as well. I don't see a way Story won't get at least 6-8 years and $150MM-200MM+
  10. bean5302
    I should point out, I don't think there's anything to be mad about as Twins fans. The front office has made their call on the subject. They've seen all they need to of Nick Gordon and are seemingly preparing to move on after the season. Here's hoping they make the right call and another team isn't hugely rewarded with a legit starting shortstop for giving Gordon a better opportunity if the Twins do leave him off the 40 man.
  11. bean5302
    Right. It's so they can put him in as a defensive replacement if Simmons gets pinch hit for or gets hurt. Gordon has been on the roster for 83 games so far this year by my count. He's played in 37 of those 83 games and started at shortstop 0 times while appearing at shortstop in 1 game for 5.0 innings. The Twins haven't even had Nick Gordon playing consistent SS in the minors since his last demotion to AAA. On his most recent assignment with the Saints, Gordon appeared at SS, 2B, 3B, LF, CF and as a pinch hitter starting in only 70% of Saints games. He's below Drew Maggi and JT Riddle on the SS depth chart as both of those guys had more time playing SS than Gordon in his most recent stint. This thread was about next year's potential starting shortstops. If you're implying the Twins have any remote interest in starting Nick Gordon at SS in 2022, I just don't see any evidence to suggest it's a possibility. In fact, I think it's plenty clear the Twins don't view Gordon as a 40 man roster candidate at this point.
  12. bean5302
    I'm not sure I agree about Kennys Vargas getting too many chances and his numbers look surprisingly close to Sano's at the MLB level, but with way fewer games and opportunities. Vargas did have an awful age 24 season with 184 plate appearances, but he played better the next two seasons. The Twins cut bait on Vargas after a wRC+ 119 and 99 at ages 25 and 26 letting him spend an unimpressive year in Rochester at age 27 before he went to Japan. Ultimately, Vargas never really showed much potential after the MLB seasons with the Twins, but his raw power was absolutely on par with Rookers and better than Sano's IMHO. Interestingly enough, he's in the Mexican League this year .310/.418/.603 OPS 1.020, but while the Mexican League is listed as AAA level, I think most comparisons actually show it's A+ or something, I read somewhere... There's also another player in the Mexican League who may be a dark horse to get a MiLB contract as depth with the slight potential of returning to MLB. Addison Russell is hanging out down there. .319/.405/.494 OPS 900. Russell was never a good bat at SS, but he did play good defense.
  13. bean5302
    Do the Twins get a 5 yard penalty for having too many men on the roster?
  14. bean5302
    ...and he's on the bench for the game. Gordon is on the 40 man, he has options and he can provide bench utility.
  15. bean5302
    Gordon was being used as a utility player by the Saints. I think the front office views him as roster filler with options.
  16. bean5302
    Honestly, with all the logjammed talent, the potential the new CBA could change roster size, team control, universal DH's etc, trying to figure out how tight things are for the Twins before the rule 5 draft is kinda tough. I expect the Twins will move at least a couple players this offseason if the universal DH doesn't happen and maybe 3-4 if it does.
  17. bean5302
    Well, Lewis Thorpe throwing at 91 is a very big difference than Thorpe throwing at 88. If Thorpe is in the low 90s, he's worth a look.
  18. bean5302
    Buxton is more valuable than Sano. Between the two of them, Buxton is probably more productive at the plate, but Buxton also provides enormous defensive value when he plays. Sano is a boat anchor on the team in the field and should really be relegated to DH where his league average bat doesn't produce more than scrub value. Non relief pitcher players producing less 2.0 WAR hurt a team's chances at the playoffs and arguing Sano is a 2.0 WAR player as a DH at this point in his career is dubious. That said, I pointed out I have no "faith" in Sano. I didn't say Sano has no talent or that it's impossible for Sano to succeed. I just don't think he will. I believe Sano has the talent to be much better than he is, but the Twins are overloaded at 3B/1B/DH players as it is giving him few ironclad paths to production. If Sano were to drop to 225-230lbs, I fully expect he could still be an All Star caliber third baseman, but that is pure fantasy. At least I actually think Sano is trying hard right now to improve his game due to a wake up call when he essentially lost his starting spot, but the idea of Sano sustaining the effort just doesn't seem realistic to me.
  19. bean5302
    Why isn't Johan Santana an option? Side note, in regard to Thorpe, I thought I saw he threw an 88mph fastball in a quick video clip. If that's how hard Thorpe is throwing, no reason to see him at the MLB level. I voted for Joe Ryan.
  20. bean5302
    Duffey's been throwing a ton of fastballs right in the middle of the zone this year instead of staying to the sides of the plate like he did in 2020. His curve has expanded up higher and into the middle of the strike zone this year as well.
  21. bean5302
    To be equally fair, 81-81 wasn't going to get the Twins anywhere near the division crown. Most .500 ball clubs are sellers at the deadline.
  22. bean5302
    Yes, I did cut off 2017. You cut off 2016 when he could actually play 3B and still only produced 1.2 WAR so I could accuse you of lying with statistics. Then you could argue I cut off 2015, when he looked like a future All Star 3B. It's called supporting an argument. There are endless ways I could choose to critque Sano which would be more damning of his play. WAR was just easy, low hanging fruit which compiles almost everything together. In regard to your SSS arguments, Sano has never played more than 116 games in a season. Considering how much flak Buxton gets, it probably sounds surprising to people Sano has never been a qualified hitter for a normal season in his career. If we doubled his 2020 season, he'd still only have 1.0 WAR across a typical Sano full season and a wRC+ of 99 who is now a DH. He had 299 (300) plate appearances in 2018. That's not really small sample size. Values have already become pretty stable at that point. For the record, I'm looking at the trend and Sano's trend has been obvious. I typically look at the last 3-4 years for players because it removes luck or a season of playing hurt (like Polanco), etc. I don't look further back than that because it's not relevant. Players change over time and looking at what they did 5 years ago isn't relevant to the player's expected value today.
  23. bean5302
    To be honest, I thought it was more like a strawman wearing a jesters hat and a fat suit.
  24. bean5302
    Obviously concerned about a potential Balazovic injury at this point. Even if Balazovic isn't hurt, the Twins need to shut him down for a couple weeks. I can't help but think he's got some dead arm going on at this point and throwing hard with a dead arm is a sure fire way to get him hurt. I think Canterino is ready for AA at this point. With a little over a month left to play, he can certainly slot into Balazovic's spot while Balazovic rests up.
  25. bean5302
    I know you bring this up... but Saints games are more expensive than Twins games right now so by this logic, shouldn't the Saints be demanding the Twins demote players so the paying customers can get their money's worth?
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