bean5302

To clarify, the argument owners are making is lowering the luxury tax to $180MM will increase revenue sharing making a $100MM spending requirement obtainable for any responsibly operated franchise. I'm sure the evidence they're using here is the fact teams routinely exceed the current luxury tax threshold. I disagree that caps are good. It forces everybody into the same basic model and stymies player salaries. It leads to the very real version of draft picks refusing to sign for certain teams and insurmountable dynasties.

If Byron Buxton was producing at 50 WAR, I'd agree with you.

I never get past how many Twins fans believe catchers can slow time down and move like they're Neo in the Matrix around here. Jeffers blocked plenty of pitches spiked in the dirt yesterday. Any and every pitch spiked in the dirt which is blocked is 50% luck and 50% technique. When 100mph balls are spiked in the dirt, it's total luck in regard to the angle the ball bounces and it's at best a guessing game. The ball is traveling at 135-150 feet per second. It has to travel 3 feet to reach the catcher after it spikes off the ground, now traveling with a randomized trajectory. It reaches the catchers body (if it his the body) in 0.2 seconds. Your eye cannot blink faster than 0.1 seconds. The catcher cannot physically make any adaptation to block a pitch once it's hit the dirt and they've already committed to their guess at where the pitch will ricochet. I'm sure folks like to watch the slow motion replay as they play the Matrix theme in the back of their minds while imaging shockwaves behind the ball and the catcher floating off the ground, but here in real life, it doesn't happen.

There's no reason to sign one player when the one signing won't make the difference for the team. Donaldson is on pace for close to 3 WAR this year. He's been worth near his $21MM salary. It seems to me teams try to buy at $6MM per WAR but the average actual production is $8MM per WAR. Donaldson is right in between. If he finishes the year hot, he'll more than earn what the Twins were trying to buy. The Twins' market size suggests the team should carry an annual player payroll in the $140-150MM range right now. In 2019, they should have been in a position to push it over their sustained max like other teams almost univerally do. Maybe $170MM+? In any case. Free agent shortstops. I don't anticipate the Twins are going to do anything other than re-sign Simmons. Maybe an outside shot at Corey Seager. The owner is extremely risk averse when it comes to long contracts. Just how it is. Noah Syndergaard may well not become a free agent. The Mets are going to give him a QO and depending on whether or not he plays, his velocity if he plays and how effective he is, there's a fair likelihood he'd take it just to rebuild value and get the QO off the table forever. Syndergaard is reported as throwing mid 90s yesterday. If he pushes back up to 97-98, and does well in his return to MLB in a couple weeks out the pen, he'll likely decline the QO and seek a long term contract. He'll get at least 5 years $125MM from somebody in that case, but likely more. The Twins won't do it.

It's worth noting the current CBA doesn't expire for 4 months and this is the first offer to the MLBPA on the luxury tax. It's a first offer in what is expected to be a tough series of negotiations, but it sure seems like a good first offer. I think it's also very important the first offer is a good offer aimed at finding a quick and happy compromise because that's how successful negotiations work. The owners would be having a champagne party if the MLBPA accepted the very first offer made with no counters.

Lack of a 3rd pitch makes it virtually impossible to be a starter. Still, glad to see he's having success. For a guy drafted that late, it has to be a ton of fun!

Yeah, 150G Nope. Yep, 18 sec. Nope. Absolutely. Not sure about that one. I'm really leary of tanking. Nope. Sounds like Tim Keown doesn't understand why there is a commissioner and wants a 3 party system. That's neat, but the owners are not going to give up their control to some sort of neutral arbitrator.

This is an offer which gives the MLBPA something it really wants. Dramatically increased competition for its players. While I think the $100MM is a bit too high, I think it's also intentional. MLB wants to force the hands of taxpayers in Oakland and Tampa to build new stadiums. The $100MM threshhold will give both of those teams a compelling argument for why they have to leave if they don't get a new stadium. I still think it's a fantastic idea and close to what I proposed in a different thread. Tanking must be stopped. Rebuilds should not result in teams which are totally and completely uncompetitive for 4 or 5 years. Dropping the competitive balance threshhold to $180MM feels a bit like trying to find a way to reduce top player salaries as mentioned, but it would also prevent teams abusing the crap out of the system like the Dodgers from completely blowing past the tax threshold in an attempt to block other divisional teams from competing. I don't see the argument being valid in regard to limiting mid-value players. I think it is far more likely to limit the top value players from getting potentially team killing albatross contracts of 10-14 years and $350MM+. Having a couple super elite players on your team is not going to get you to the playoffs, let alone allow you to win playoff games. Those elite players are worth a lot, but you need a solid foundation. I feel like this offer is genuine and will probably be viewed as fairly refreshing and in good faith for addressing a major issue the MLBPA wants addressed. Team control is obviously the other major factor.

My point is they shouldn't care whether or not another team would claim him. He's taking up a 40 man roster spot and the chances he turns into a pitcher with any value at the MLB level, including a relief pitcher is virtually zero. Lewis Thorpe throwing at 88mph like he did in his last 2 appearances is not going to be effective at getting MLB batters out regardless of what inning you want him to pitch.

Agreed. Many players from the Rockies have gone on to be productive elsewhere. Matt Holliday, Nolan Arenado, DJ LaMahieu right off the top of my head. Raw counting stats get inflated at Coors, but wRC+ OPS+ and general batting factors like exit velocity and launch angles don't change just because a player is swinging a bat at a different location.

He's a tier 1 shortstop. I mis-stated his age, btw. He's 30 right now, he'll be 31 at the start of next year. He'll get 5 years after he records another 6 WAR season this year. His agent set the price for Semien at over $100MM to start the season.

Just checked in on Thorpe's performance to see he was yanked after 1.1 innings. I think Statcast was actually confused with Thorpe's changeup and fastball due to the velocities being the same. Fastballs 85-88mph. He should be DFA after the game regardless of whether or not he's injured.

Not sure what pursuing a FA shortstop has to do with giving up on Lewis. Signing a big name, tier 1, FA shortstop would be a radical departure from the Twins' front office/ownership's style. The Astros have already offered Correa 5 and 6 year deals worth $125MM+ before the season started and I'm sure they'll come to the table big before Correa is a free agent. The Blue Jays certainly have the inside track on Semien. The Yankees are going to be bidding on the best free agent SS on the market... Does anybody here actually believe the Twins are willing to go 5-7 years and shell out $150MM+ for a free agent shortstop? I mean... truly? Besides, say the Twins sign the least expensive tier 1 potential FA option, Semien, for 5 years. He's 32. Do you want him playing SS in 5 years? How about in 2 years when Lewis is likely either washed out or a starting SS? You just move Semien or trade him or whatever.

Wait.. what? You think a pitcher is more likely to give a batter something to hit with RISP? Aside from that making no practical sense because giving batters good pitches to hit would likely score runs. The absolute, hands down, number one scenario a batter will see nothing to hit is RISP (runner on 2nd, nobody on first with 0-1 outs). If there is a time when a pitcher is looking to induce the weakest contact possible or get a strike out while throwing absolutely nothing in meat of the zone, it's with RISP. I mean... pitchers will even walk in runs with the bases loaded rather than give a good pitch to hit.

I don't think it's necessary to move Palacios to the MLB roster, but find a spot where he can play shortstop. It's obvious Martin is a dramatically better prospect than Palacios so you cater to Martin's development, but you don't take a steaming dump on the head of your other players like Palacios to do it. There's nobody at AAA the Twins want playing SS at the MLB level. I made an error in my comment above, though. JT Riddle was outrighted to AAA so he's not taking up a 40 man spot. That said, it's the end of the season. Do the Twins really need 32 year old utility MiLB roster filler Drew Maggi and 29 year old utility MiLB roster filler JT Riddle playing every day in St. Paul? Like WTF? Logjamming talent in the minors for Maggi and Riddle. That's the real hair puller for me.

I would have moved him to AAA when they moved Steer up. It was a major roster crunch in AA at that point. Release JT Riddle which has the added bonus of clearing a 40 man spot.

I know it doesn't mean a ton, but all the minor league affiliates have winning records and AAA/AA are in contention for their division title. That doesn't happen unless there is real talent in the minor league system. That Quad Cities team for KC (60-29) .674 is scary, though. The AL Central is not going to be an easy place to win for the next 5 years, I don't think. Also, worth noting just because he's kind of my favorite underdog now, Palacios got back on base 2x again. 1 2B, 1 BB to increase his OPS to .834 and hold his wRC+ at 122. Looks like Martin has been moved back to SS, though. Palacios hasn't played SS in 4 games with all the starts going to Austin. They actually put Palacios at 1B. Guy hasn't had an error at SS in 21 games and his FP is like .981 at the position since early June. It's the equivalent of his age 23 season (discounting last year's lost season) and they start him at first base. I have to wonder how this impacts a player like Palacios. He's one of the best shortstops (performance-wise) in all minor league baseball and he's moved to 1B and I think it could be argued he's 3rd on the SS depth chart at AA now. I think I'd either be utterly pissed off and use this as motivation to hope the Twins leave me off the 40 man so I can get away from this franchise or I'd let this sink my confidence.

We were talking about Larnach's probable outcomes as a player. I chose Delmon Young as a 50% likelihood comp because Young was defensively limited in the outfield most of his career, along with pedestrian OBP and power numbers leading to a league average-ish bat and because Twins fans are familiar with Delmon. Delmon had a couple nice years in MLB, but was mostly just a veteran guy who filled a corner outfielder roster space cheaply for 6-7 years as a starter. I think that's what Larnach turns into 50% of the time. I also postulated Cuddyer is like a 97% Larnach. Likely near Trevor's absolute ceiling which is a 2-3 WAR corner outfielder with a respectable 10 year career as a starter. This debate on whether or not Larnach's peripherals and triple slashes, etc have or are going to match 100%, 94.324% or 78% is kind of pointless.

Best wishes for a super fast recovery!

I think Larnach was just overwhelmed by the difference between breaking balls at MLB and A+/AA. I have pointed out Larnach really didn't have any time above AA... but in truth, Larnach didn't even have 2 months of time at AA. Not even 200 plate appearances above A+ ball when the Twins called his number to start at the MLB level. In regard to Larnach's vaunted power stroke... he has not shown impressive power at any level of the game so far. His ISO at A+/AA was a quite pedestrian .144/.160. While his raw power is there, he is not a fly ball hitter and most of his offensive performance in the minors seems to have come from a very high BABIP on line drives and probably well hit ground balls. Larnach's batted ball profile may well look much more like Joe Mauer's than Justin Morneau's. Unfortunately, Larnach is not showing anywhere near Joe Mauer levels of plate discipline and pitch recognition.

The Twins do not consider Gordon a prospect. He's bench utility and MiLB roster filler. If you frame it in that perspective, what they're doing makes perfect sense.

It's not negative enough around here, I suppose. Kepler gets quite a bit of criticism in the comments especially for his low batting average and accused of selling out for the home run. He plays good to great defense, is cheap, under team control for several more years. Kepler has never been remotely close to producing negative value across a full season. Even now, Kepler sports an above average 106 OPS+ on the season and has been quite good recently, in August with an .813 OPS or wRC+ 121. Kepler doesn't need to be an elite hitter to provide value because he brings defense to the table and can even play center field. He's a 2.0ish WAR kind of player in RF these days and he'd be a 3.0+ WAR kind of player in CF. Here, lets get some kicks in! Garver is worth -37 runs a game because he can't reliably block a 100mph ball bouncing off the dirt 3 feet to the side of home plate! Sano only plays first base because the Twins trick him by laying a trail of cheeseburgers to the bag! He's an automatic out whenever it counts and no amount of above average hitting will convince me he's not the worst hitter in baseball! Polanco's glove is made from cast iron and he's secretly throwing 100 pitch bullpen sessions before game to wear his arm out! Donaldson's hamstring sounds like a bass guitar when he runs for the 1 game he's on the field per month and he's terrible compared to other All Star caliber hitters! Simmons is running around throwing feces like an angry monkey in an attempt to ward off COVID. It makes his bat too slippery and it causes him to make bad contact. His defense isn't that good, either. It's barely the best in MLB! Larnach had plenty of time to adapt to higher levels of pitching in AAA for those 3 games this year. I don't care if he didn't play in 2020! That's 3 games plus Spring Training! Buxton is more unreliable than a poorly maintained Italian car from the 1960s. Maybe if he'd stop trying so hard to catch balls in the field sometime he wouldn't always be hurt! On top of that, he has the audacity to want to be paid for his work! Everybody knows he's lucky the Twins would even offer him a contract! Kepler only ever tries to hit home runs and he doesn't have the power. He's only got 60 home runs over the past two full years worth of at bats! Rooker's garbage. He's had 123 plate appearances and I've seen enough. He needs to learn how to read a curveball. I mean, yeah, his K rate is lower than Sano's and Larnach's and some bums named Ohtani and Gallo and Baez, but still. He's not very fast so he'll never be an MLB caliber player. No... I do not want to consider the fact he has raked at every single level of the game and every year he's played. 100 plate appearances is enough to KNOW he should be DFA'd!

The call for bunt wasn't on, I'm sure. If Gordon takes it upon himself to try and drag a bunt (usually doesn't work) and isn't successful, he high fives the guys on the Saints in the dugout the next day, lol.

It's based on 90 foot splits on home to first base running without reaction time included. I chose 90 foot times because it is nearly the same amount of time the fly ball in question stayed in the air and it took into consideration acceleration time, not just top speed. As I noted my comment, I assume Rooker had an average reaction time, but reaction time is factored into "jump" time which is the amount of ground a player covers in the correct direction to the ball in the first 1.5 seconds from the ball off the bat. Rooker covers 30.6ft while the average fielder covers 33.0ft in 1.5 seconds. I used Jurickson Profar as the model for Rooker, but Profar covers2 feet more than Rooker on the jump at 32.8 feet in 1.5 sec. If that play was the average reaction time and jump for Rooker, you'd need to give the average left fielder an extra 2 feet on top of the 4 feet I quoted. Your eyeballs are broken, btw. Buxton covers 5 feet more than Rooker in the first 1.5 seconds alone. We can assume Buxton reaches top speed in 2.0 seconds which means 5 feet + 4.0 ft/sec * 2.0 sec = 13 feet. Now include the speed advantage of Buxton for the 1.50-2.00 seconds of run time and you come up with 15 more feet covered on that play. Buxton makes that catch standing up if the ball is at the wall in foul territory before promptly going to the DL for the rest of the year with a shoulder injury for running into the wall at top speed. The original comment from the original person starting the conversation was Rooker made a fantastic diving catch. Agreed. Rooker's catch was fantastic and exciting! A later commenter said they didn't want to see Rooker in the field and the original person came back and doubled down saying Rooker made a fantastic catch. It was at this point the conversation turned completely away from the excitement of the catch itself and into whether or not Rooker was good in the field in general. Then it was a whole bunch of nonsense about how metrics suck and aren't accurate because eyeball this and eyeball that. The ball which was hit spent four seconds in the air. That's why the xBA calculated it's an automatic out 99.4% of the time or whatever. It doesn't matter which direction the ball is hit because the 9 fielders can cover the entire fair ground in 4 seconds.

xBA should be used as a comparative tool for how well a player hits a ball. Different player running speeds, etc will impact how well the metric will predict a single result. It looks like the ball carried for about 4.05 seconds to me. Rooker doesn't have enough run data to really get a good sample, but I think his last year's data of 26.1 ft/sec is probably reasonable. That compares approximately to Jurickson Profar and if I make Jurickson Profar try to catch a ball, he'd hit 90 feet in 4.14 seconds. The median left fielder reaches 90 feet in about 4.00 seconds. Taking the median top speed into consideration at 27.4 feet per second, and tacking on 0.14 seconds to the total, the average left fielder would have covered an additional 4 feet of ground on that ball so it would have been the same as the ball dropping at Rooker's knee from his laid out position, assuming Rooker got an average jump on the ball. That's not necessarily an easy catch for the average left fielder, but it's one the fielder would definitely expected to make if they were standing where Rooker was when the ball was hit. The dive is only required because Rooker doesn't have the range.