bean5302
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Everything posted by bean5302
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Century Old Baseball Hobby in Jeopardy?
bean5302 replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I haven't been interested at all in baseball cards since I was a kid. I do find the single licensee platform to be the way the major sports, ultra especially, MLB have operated. It seems to me, this is just more of the same MLB policy. Short term gains without any vision at all costs. There has been a magnificent decline in baseball card brands over the past couple of decades. https://www.bbonly.com/baseball-cards-by-year-and-brand.php 2008 - 49 brands 2009 - 36 brands 2010 - 19 brands 2011 - 16 brands 2012 - 12 brands 2015 - 11 brands 2017 - 17 brands 2018 - 19 brands 2019 - 13 brands 2020 - 9 brands 2021 - 2 brands We've seen the same move in regards to television, etc. It's not without similarities across other sports or product lines, either. With the decline in market competition, gaining sole access to an entire marketplace (monopoly) has been pursued at length. Apple's iPhone was originally exclusive to AT&T and Palm's Pre was exclusive to Sprint, for example. The big names no longer do this as it's proven to be a disaster, but I suppose MLB's ability to offer a double monopoly (product market and product together) is enticing. Kinda like cable companies owning not only the lines that go to your house, but also the content you receive. -
9/1/21 - Kenta Maeda had Tommy John Surgery
bean5302 replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
So it's a hybrid process and they think putting the brace in may improve healing time. I'm not a doctor so I can't say much more about it. I know the brace/tape is supposed to stimulate collagen growth which, in theory, results in the ligament fully attaching to the bone faster. -
Twins = 3.8 fWAR and a near Cy Young starting pitcher in a season they went to the playoffs. Dodgers = 0.5 fWAR middle innings relief pitcher. Definitely equal so far. I'm not even sure why people want to debate this. Even if Graterol somehow becomes a pitcher who can actually strike guys out and hit his spots, he's also going to have to become a pitcher who shows up to Spring Training in good enough shape to be part of the team. On top of that, he's never going to catch up to Maeda's value added if Graterol remains a reliever and given his lack of commitment to conditioning and lack of a 3rd pitch, that's not happening. The Graterol Kool-Aid was strong on Twins fans sites, but ultimately, he's not the next Aroldis Chapman, just the next Jim Hoey. If Graterol has a 5.0 WAR career, I'd be surprised.
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- kenta maeda
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9/1/21 - Kenta Maeda had Tommy John Surgery
bean5302 replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I did. I suppose it depends on whether or not Maeda actually underwent Tommy John surgery, which is UCL reconstruction via replacement (historically without a tape brace) It sounds like Maeda didn't actually undergo what should be referred to as Tommy John surgery. Instead, he underwent UCL repair, unless it was some sort of hybrid. https://www.newswise.com/articles/new-surgical-technique-cuts-tommy-john-recovery-time-in-half I should have spent more time researching it. My fault there. -
9/1/21 - Kenta Maeda had Tommy John Surgery
bean5302 replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Please read the topic. -
That is exactly my thought on the Twins' plan. I'd bet money Simmons is back next year (not a lot of money, mind you).
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- jermaine palacios
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9/1/21 - Kenta Maeda had Tommy John Surgery
bean5302 replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Standard return times are 12-18 months. I suppose it's possible he could get some bullpen games in next September if everything goes almost perfect. -
They were just shifting him around the diamond when Martin was aquired for a few days before they moved Martin to CF. But yeah, it was after Speer was promoted to AA and Martin was acquired the crunch got really bad. Instead of promoting Palacios, the Twins elected to start spot starting him and using him as a pinch hitter. Meanwhile, JT Riddle of the OPS in the .500s and 32 year old Drew Maggi are in AAA. If the Twins don't put him on the 40 man, I'd hope they don't if I was Palacios, I certainly wouldn't return to Minnesota on a MiLB contract.
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Also, Varland is absolutely killing it this year. The fastball, curveball, slider combination is really playing well at A+ level, though there was a major drop off in his K rate from video game numbers 14.45 K/9 at Low A to a still very solid 9.89 K/9 after today's performance. Luck seems to be a factor in his overall numbers at A+ with his BABIP and HR rate being low. Fangraphs is showing a high 23% pop up rate and a crazy 38% pop up rate at Low A earlier this year, but of course, those numbers are super sketchy, especially considering his A+ line drive rate is only 5%. Still, it could explain the HR/FB rate being so low.
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- jermaine palacios
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Have to wonder if Palacios is nursing an injury. He hasn't been tearing it up quite as much this month, but he also hasn't been consistently starting at all. My take was either the Twins have seen all they care to see and aren't intending on giving him a 40 man roster spot or they've been giving him extra time off due to some unknown injury.
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Can The Twins Fill a Rotation for 2022?
bean5302 commented on Ted Schwerzler 's blog entry in Off The Baggy
Honestly, everything will depend on how competitive the Twins expect to be next year. When it was reported Maeda expected TJ, that meant the odds for having him back in 2022 were scant. I'd be surprised if Ober and Ryan weren't in the rotation. Winder could return to the Saints rotation any time if the original 2-3 week reported shutdown proves accurate. I'd think the Twins would be a little extra motivated to see him pitch again this year now that Maeda has gone down.- 18 comments
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Kepler's swing doesn't allow the bat to spend a lot of time in the meat of the zone. His eye is very good and his exit velocities, hard hit rates and barrel rates are a testiment to his eye. Ultimately, it's a very pretty swing, but a swing that lends itself to a lot of off center contact resulting in a pop ups and topped balls impacting his BABIP. Kepler's defensive prowess is undeniable. Despite not having elite speed, his jump and routes are outstanding. It allows him to not only excel at corner outfield positions but also adequately cover CF.
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Who gets the call on Wednesday, Sept. 1?
bean5302 replied to Squirrel's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Nice to see Ryan get the call. Giving him some starts at the MLB level will really help figure out how his stuff plays against the MLB hitters. -
I believe Royce Lewis was scheduled to meet with team physician, Christopher Camp around this time to get clearance to start hitting and lateral movement. So much on the line for him over the next 9 months or so. Nice to see Martin have a good couple of games. Every player will go through some slumps, luck fueled or otherwise, but the Twins really need him and Woods-Richardson to play well. Speaking of, getting tired of Woods-Richardson sitting on the developmental list. The developmental list is specifically defined as NOT a place to rehab injury, and it's his 3rd week there now. No reason for the Twins to be abusing the crap out of the new option.
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I love using Fangraphs for peripherals on prospects like Cabbage. Just at a glance it can sometimes tell you a legit prospects vs. a player with no MLB projection. Looking at Cabbage's peripherals reminded me a lot of Wallner at a glance and when I looked at them back to back, it sure looks like Cabbage and Wallner are essentially the same guy. Both Wallner and Cabbage are 30% better than average hitters at A+ and/or AA, but 30% better than average for outfielders with Rooker-like range and a 30-40% K rate doesn't project well.
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Larnach optioned; Gordon recalled
bean5302 replied to Otto von Ballpark's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
He's utility backup. Just using him to fill spots while protecting service time and roster spots for players in the minors. -
Who gets the call on Wednesday, Sept. 1?
bean5302 replied to Squirrel's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Since September counts towards service time and the Twins are looking like a team which is likely going to be doing a full rebuild, I don't think the front office is going to call up any starters or any high impact players. -
Who gets the call on Wednesday, Sept. 1?
bean5302 replied to Squirrel's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Since the Twins have booted Daniel Descalo and Keon Broxton, I guess that leaves Drew Maggi and Sherman Johnson. Johnson is a little young for the callup at only season age 30, but he recently technically had his 31st birthday and he's not playing very well which improves his odds greatly. Drew Maggi is playing a little too well, like almost servicable, but thankfully he's in his age 32 season so the Twins can call him up without worry about him having too much potential. -
I didn't find much of value in his take, either. Mostly catering to the angry mob. I'm sure it will be a popular podcast, but it doesn't provide a lot of value. I know everybody uses Tampa Bay as some sort of model of awesomeness, but nobody actually wants to follow the Tampa Bay model. In the Tampa model, the Twins don't even offer Buxton a contract and I guarantee they traded him. Tampa Bay does not hang onto expensive star players, ever. Tampa Bay has 11 4th or 5th place finishes in the AL East in the past 20 years. They're on pace to finish 1st for the 4th time in the past 20 years. They've never won 100 games, ever. Tampa Bay has no loyalty whatsoever and started their rise to competitive baseball with 10 consecutive 90+ loss seasons to build a farm system. If you have favorite players and want to keep them, you're not going to like the Tampa Bay model. Tampa Bay uses the model because it's their only choice. Nobody attends their games for multiple reasons.
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Is it too early to call Cavaco a bust?
bean5302 replied to Twinky's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I tend to agree, but lockdowns in California were hard core. I saw it reported on Fangraphs that Cavaco's weight seemed to be yo-yoing. Also, the number of poorly conditioned MLB players is long and there are plenty of examples from the Twins in recent years. -
Is it too early to call Cavaco a bust?
bean5302 replied to Twinky's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
To be frank, most of it has to do with Cavaco having 92 professional plate appearances before this year and knowing he was a full on project when he was drafted. Cavaco was a surprise and a reach by the Twins as they drafted him purely based on athleticism and projection. Cavaco did not participate in the 2020 alternate site. May - 82 PA .230/.305/.297 OPS .602 Jun - 35 PA .344/.400/.438 OPS .838 went on 10 Day IL Jul - 56 PA .271/.375/.438 OPS .813 came back from IL and 3 game rehab assignment Aug - 78 PA .173/.179/.173 OPS .353 He's only had one absolutely horrible month so far; this one. In June and July, Cavaco was showing a real improvement at the plate. Not sure if he's wearing down. Reports suggested his conditioning coming into the year probably wasn't very good so maybe? Cavaco's struggles at the plate, and even moreso in the field, are concerning. Too early to completely write him off. -
Minor League Report (8/29): First-Place Surge Find A Way
bean5302 replied to Nash Walker's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
The players chosen for the AFL will be interesting. I think pitchers might be in short supply due to dead arms.- 18 replies
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Dobnak to return Friday Sep. 3, starting against Rays
bean5302 replied to Otto von Ballpark's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Hopefully, Dobnak will show better stuff than earlier this year. It's been a forgetable year for him so far and nobody likes to watch the games rather than play in them. I heard Maeda is going to pitch on Wednesday, just left handed. He's working on the Jim Abbott glove transitions. He needs those escalators!!!

