bean5302
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Everything posted by bean5302
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Week in Review: New-Look Rotation
bean5302 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Bummer the Twins aren't in the hunt, but I think it's still fun to see prospects getting chances. I agree the Twins have spoken on Gordon and I think they have ample reason to doubt his ability to play at the MLB level. It's just a personal pet peeve of mine to see younger players who aren't given a chance but who are still locked down with team control. I remember another player who wasn't good enough to play shortstop a few years ago because he had no bat and questionable defense. Some fans might remember him. He played a couple years on the Twins after that. His name was Eduardo Escobar and he almost didn't get a shot to play because he was stashed way behind perennial MVP candidate Pedro Florimon. Ober is doing what he can to make a case for a rotation spot next year and Martin is a nice bright spot. Speaking of bright spots, Simeon Woods-Richardson and Joe Ryan should be headed back to the USA from the Tokyo Olympics soon. Honestly, such a bummer Woods-Richardson's number didn't come up after the rainout game scheduled with Puerto Rico, but I'm sure it was a blast anyway.- 37 replies
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- griffin jax
- bailey ober
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NIck Gordon Sent to AAA - Is He a Long Term Player?
bean5302 commented on LA Vikes Fan's blog entry in LA Vikes Fan
Absolutely true. Gordon, who has primarily played shortstop every single year of his professional MiLB career (including this one) can clearly not play shortstop. We know this because even though Gordon has the arm strength, quickness, reaction time and range to play shortstop, somebody on the internet wrote Gordon can't stick there one time. Thus... the book is closed. It's just the strangest thing the Twins keep having Gordon play SS almost exclusively... every year for 7 years now. Gordon's error rate has been bad at SS. Very bad. Gordon cannot play any defensive position with a bad error rate because he doesn't have the bat to make up for it (unlike Polanco). It'd be nice to see his skills at the MLB level rather than hear about his issues from an internet "scout." -
NIck Gordon Sent to AAA - Is He a Long Term Player?
bean5302 commented on LA Vikes Fan's blog entry in LA Vikes Fan
Polanco's fielding percentage is almost always among the worst in MLB... Arraez, on the other hand is almost always average. -
Universal DH is a lock for next year. MLBPA wants it, MLB wants it, competition demands it and most fans want it.
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Game Score: Astros 4, Twins 0
bean5302 replied to Lucas Seehafer PT's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I fully expect the Twins will call Ryan up, but not before he's in the country Strotman's AAA stats don't impress me in the least, but I could see the Twins giving him a few innings out of the pen, maybe? -
Scouting Twins Prospects: Cole Sands
bean5302 replied to Lucas Seehafer PT's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I expect the feel on Sands' ceiling will be well known by mid next year. He's been good with limiting walks since his return from the IL on 7/14, but it's such a small sample size with him throwing such a tiny number of pitches. (26, 29, 50, 65). He has been more consistent at generating swinging strikes over those starts as well and he's been pounding the strike zone, too. His previous starts were sporadic on swinging strikes every other game (6%-19%)with a fairly consistent strike rate of 60% or so. The last 4 starts have all been 10%-19% swinging strike rate with an average strike rate of about 70%. It's hard to say whether the improved performance is from pitching fewer innings and seeing batters fewer times or whether or not he's actually being a lot more efficient. Just have to wait and see if the Twins keep letting him ramp up the pitch count and watch the walks. Right now, Sands probably has a ceiling of 4-5 starter and a more probable outcome of setup man in my opinion unless he's able to increase his efficiency. In his last start, even with a 68% zone rate and a 15.4% swinging strike rate, he still averaged nearly 18 pitches per inning. -
How confident are you in the FO to turn this around?
bean5302 replied to cHawk's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
To add to the conversation of how quickly "ace" caliber pitcher ascend in the minors: deGrom - Draft a22, MLB a26, ace a26 Scherzer - Draft a22, MLB a23, ace a28 Cole - Draft a20, MLB a22, ace a24 Sale - Draft a21, MLB a21, ace a23 Greinke - Draft a18, MLB a20, ace a25 Verlander - Draft a22, MLB a22, ace a28 Wheeler - Draft a20, MLB a23, ace a30 Bauer - Draft a20, MLB a21, ace a27 Kershaw - Draft a18, MLB a20, ace a21 Strasburg - Draft a20, MLB a21, ace a21 I'd say typical ace caliber pitchers (consistent sub/near 3.00 ERA) take 1-3 years to make MLB. Most aces seem to be drafted after their college sophomore year; however, far more college pitchers are signed in general because it's pretty rare to see a high round high school pitcher drafted. It's also worth noting the stage teams are in when they promote to the big leagues. Are they competitive or are they rebuilding and manipulating service time? -
Game Score: Astros 4, Twins 0
bean5302 replied to Lucas Seehafer PT's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Who are the Twins going to take a look at instead of Pineda? Shepherd (28)? 5.88 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 5.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 at AAA Albers (35)? 4.15 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 1.0 BB/9 at AAA Strotman (24) 3.59 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 5.1 BB/9 at AAA Ryan (25) isn't back from the Tokyo Olympics yet. Duran (23) is on the IL with a UCL strain and won't likely pitch again until at least next year. Winder (24) is shut down for the year with shoulder fatigue Barnes (25) 4.24 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 at AAA is already in the rotation Jax (26) 3.32 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 at AAA is already in the rotation -
I'm not excited about Hicks either, but the Twins need a CF for a couple years. I have no faith in Martin as a CF based on his physical tool grades, and well, I just don't the front office having much in the way of direction. Royce Lewis has the athleticism for CF, but he's getting old without the experience to go along with the age and the most recent experience he has isn't inspiring. Hicks isn't terribly expensive and I'm sure NY would be willing to eat a big portion of the contract... or the Twins could take it on and sweeten the prospect return. That's provided NY is actually interested much in Buxton, which they may not be. In any case, that's the kind of trade I'd like to see the Twins make.
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Minor League Report 8/7 Walk-Off Winners
bean5302 replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
It's pretty simple in my opinion. Palacios is 24 and is a decent fielding shortstop who's maintained a cumulative .800 OPS throughout the entire season and 333 plate appearances now. His AA performance 2 years ago for Tampa showed strong enough peripherals with a 10% walk rate and 19% K rate and some bad luck with a .229 BABIP. Palacios is flashing plus power this year to go along with his plus base running and decent walk rate and while he's getting old for his level at 24, it's not like he's 26 or 27 and past prospect age. May - .311/.398/.478 .876 OPS June - .250/.348/.490 .838 OPS July - .221/.303/.364 .667 OPS Aug - .208/.321/.625 .946 OPS Either he's a prospect or he's not. He's rule 5 eligible and I'd be surprised if he wasn't selected in the rule 5 draft if left off the roster. Now, it's entirely possible Palacios will never pan out. His batting average is pretty ugly after all, and that 20% K rate is going to increase at MLB. It'd be better to know if the Twins are wasting shortstop talent or a 40 man roster spot when both are desperately needed. Honestly, I can't see a spot where we agree. I don't believe keeping a declining shortstop on an expiring contract playing every day in a lost season when there are two borderline, but potential MLB caliber shortstop prospects in the high minors who are both rule 5 eligible. There is no better time to look at the older borderline prospects. Gordon was in MLB until a few days ago. Riddle is blocking nobody. He's a journeyman utility player who's played 2B, 3B, SS and LF this year with a .555 OPS.- 11 replies
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- caleb hamilton
- austin schulfer
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Let's Realign the Divisions to Create Regional Rivalries
bean5302 commented on LA Vikes Fan's blog entry in LA Vikes Fan
I don't see it happening and this lack of multiple conferences would be unlike any of the other top 3 sports. Baseball enjoys a lot of competition right now, though a little less in recent years, but I think this design would see an even greater loss of competition. -
NIck Gordon Sent to AAA - Is He a Long Term Player?
bean5302 commented on LA Vikes Fan's blog entry in LA Vikes Fan
Nick Gordon has a stiff headwind to have any MLB career right now so I'm sure a Danny Santana career looks pretty good to him about now. Here's hoping at the very least, he can stay healthy in the personal life side of things. He's certainly been through a heck of a lot with the digestive tract issues and the bad case of COVID. -
Buxton doesn't generally produce at an MVP level so I can't see him being in the discussion at 120 games. I know fans here like to quote bWAR for Buxton because when his fWAR is reviewed, he's barely All Star caliber. In my opinion, bWAR is broken for Buxton. His defensive value and value at the plate just don't reconcile with his bWAR, and it's already been adjusted down once. He's just not that good. 150 games at center field for Buxton = 1.25 wins + 1.50 wins for elite defense. The rest is his bat which is a bit above average, maybe wRC+ 115ish which would struggle to see Buxton even at 5.0 fWAR.
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Minor League Report 8/7 Walk-Off Winners
bean5302 replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Palacios just continues to show he has nothing to prove at AA. Of course, Palacios can play shortstop in AA because the Twins have decided to move Martin to center field where he lacks the range to excel. I'm sure Palacios would be promoted except he's blocked by Nick Gordon at AAA so the Twins can get a good long look at young prospect Andrelton Simmons, our future franchise shortstop.- 11 replies
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- caleb hamilton
- austin schulfer
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Game Score: Astros 4, Twins 0
bean5302 replied to Lucas Seehafer PT's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
There are few teams I'd prefer beating than the Astros, but at least we took 2 of 3! -
St. Paul to Stardom: Louie Varland is the Real Deal
bean5302 replied to David Youngs's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I'd like to hear about Varland's off speed offerings and how they're progressing. I've seen full articles dedicated to his fastball velocity, but not much in regard to his slider or change up. Sounds like he leans very heavily on his fastball and mixes in the off speed stuff later, but the off speed stuff is going to be required to have success at the MLB level. As a 3 pitch guy, all 3 of the pitches need to be good to be able to start. Still, really nice to see him continue to have success, especially considering he was such a late pick. -
I saw that, too. The more I see written about Martin, the more obvious it is he doesn't have the legitimate ability to play center field at the MLB level. He's graded with 50 speed and 50 arm. Unless the scouting on his speed is way off, he's not going to offer decent defense in CF. I was thinking about this the other day, though. Maybe defense doesn't matter anymore at any position? Since so few balls are actually put into play now that we have such a high level of 3 outcome batters, having fielders who are well suited to play the positions to which they're assigned may not matter much.
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NIck Gordon Sent to AAA - Is He a Long Term Player?
bean5302 commented on LA Vikes Fan's blog entry in LA Vikes Fan
I'm also concerned about Arraez's knee issues at such a young age, but there are a few options for treating the issue. It doesn't have to be something which shuts him down across his career. -
I'd like to trade Buxton to a team offering a center fielder option and prospects back. I was intrigued when the Yankees said they were exploring Buxton before the trade deadline. I could see a creative scenario where the Twins Buxton for Hicks and a couple prospects.
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Top 5 Picks for the Twins to Target in the 2022 Draft
bean5302 replied to Jamie Cameron's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Kumar Rocker is an interesting discussion. Obviously huge upside, but with the also obvious elbow issue he seems to want to hide, it just doesn't look great from a physical or maturity level perspective. Rocker's options are pretty limited, but if he elects to take a year off, I'd be very concerned. His other options are to sign/play with an independent league or pitch overseas, but most of those leagues have similar seasons to MLB.- 14 replies
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- mlb draft 2022
- dylan lesko
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What are you excited to see for the remainder of the season?
bean5302 replied to wsnydes's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I'd be excited to see Miranda playing 3B and Gordon or Palacios playing SS at the MLB level. I'd also like to see Ryan starting at the MLB level with Gore, Cano and Moran pitching out of the bullpen. Getting Buxton back on the field soon and having him play the rest of the season. In the minors, I'd like to see Balazovic and Woods-Richardson get back on track and positive numbers for Martin at shortstop. -
NIck Gordon Sent to AAA - Is He a Long Term Player?
bean5302 commented on LA Vikes Fan's blog entry in LA Vikes Fan
I'm not sure why there's a perception Polanco is a good defender or that Arraez is a bad one. The stats and metrics suggest they're pretty even. Polanco at shortstop is a disaster, but the Twins played that disaster out season after season so maybe they'll do it again? Moving Gordon to AAA and having him play SS there is asinine as it just logjams Palacios who's 100% earned his shot at AAA/MLB this season. This front office creates more logjams than a mill pond. -
I'm optimistic Kirilloff, Rooker, Donaldson or Larnach can easily replace Sano and provide positive value.
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Sano gets hammered by fans because he's a detriment to the team most of the year. Slow start? Though true this year, it's not really the issue. Sano goes through long bouts of being unplayably bad followed by a couple weeks of home run derby in blowout games, followed by periods of drought. April - .111/.310/.244 OPS .555 WPA -0.653 May - .190/.261/.476 OPS .737 WPA -0.055 June - .254/.280/.507 OPS .787 WPA 0.323 July - .253/.349/.480 OPS .829 WPA -0.636 Aug - .188/.278/.313 OPS .590 WPA -0.187 Sano's WPA is pretty miserable across the entire season reflecting how many times Sano has severely hurt the team's chances of winning games because he's a guaranteed out when the opposing team really needs that out. Sano feasts on mistake pitches and an opposing team is going to limit the mistakes when it matters. Also, a league average bat at DH is hardly worth playing, and certainly not on a playoff team. A league average DH is wRC+ 120ish, not 105.
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NIck Gordon Sent to AAA - Is He a Long Term Player?
bean5302 commented on LA Vikes Fan's blog entry in LA Vikes Fan
Leave him off the 40 man at this point. The Twins' front office have made their feelings on Gordon clear, now stop jerking his chain and let him get a chance someplace else.

