bean5302

The 3 finger fastball could be filthy. Definitely, he'd have a wicked splitter.

A breakdown of Ober (18) 2014 Had impressive results out of his independed Christian high school, but wasn't drafted. (18) 2014 Attended a good, but not great college in College of Charleston (18) 2014 (Freshman Year) Very impressive pitching from the freshman 1.53 ERA 82 K, 19 BB in 106.2 IP (18) 2014 UCL tear ended his season. (19) 2015 he missed the season recovering from TJ (20) 2016 he had a good, but certainly not great, season 3.53 ERA, 96 K, 27 BB in 97.0 IP (20) 2016 23rd Round Pick by the Dodgers, didn't sign, returned to college (21) 2017 Took another step back in results during an injury riddled season. 4.53 ERA, 73 K, 11 BB in just 56.0 IP. (21) 2017 12th Round Pick as a Red shirt junior (4th year), (21) Pitched very well in rookie ball. 3.21 ERA, 11.3 K/9, 1.0 BB/9 in 28.0 IP. (22) 2018 pitched decent with 3.84 ERA, 10.6 K/9, 1.1 BB/9 in 75 IP in Low A. (22) 2018 Lost 3 months due to forearm issue (23) 2019 Dominated A+ and AA, but again, injuries 0.69 ERA, 11.4 K/9, 1.0 BB/9 across 78.2 IP (23) 2019 Spent 3.5 months on IL for UCL nerve issue, then spent another stint on the 7 day IL in Sept. (24) 2020 Lost season due to COVID shut down Having already had TJ and missed large sections of time in at least 2018 & 2019 for UCL and "forearm" related injuries. He's had a smattering of other trips to ILs through college and pro levels as well so it's hard to expect Ober to remain healthy. There are a lot of red flags here. All the injuries certainly contributed to Ober's stock falling and his low draft position, but his results in college declined each year as well. Ober didn't exactly light the world on fire in Rookie or Low-A ball through his first couple seasons in the minors, but he suddenly really turned it on in 2019. Now, having lost a year in 2020, and just now having turned 26, he's a borderline age for a "prospect." Part of that means he's been thrown to the wolves in the big show with mixed results. While Ober is consistently generating strikeouts and limiting walks, a lot of his punchouts are coming from called strikes. Through the middle of the season, Ober was struggling to generate misses and hitters were making a lot of hard contact including barreling up the ball at a high rate when they did swing. I love the control Ober shows, and pitch counts show semi-efficient appearances, averaging about 17 pitches per inning which would allow him to pitch 6.0 innings per 100 pitch outing. His track record is pretty spotty and having good control can often lead to dominance in A+/AA without having top tier stuff. Not sure where the sudden huge boost in movement came from this last game, but in order to secure a spot in the rotation, Ober will need to keep it up. Without that additional movement, MLB hitters are probably going to figure him out and relegate him to scrapping for that 5th starter position. That's assuming his elbow hangs in there.

Yep. You can win playoff games with luck, like the 1987 Twins did, but if a team wants a decent chance, it starts with the top of the rotation. The playoff pitching rotation and pitching staff don't look a lot like the regular season staff. The number 4 and 5 starters may not even pitch in the playoffs. It's about the teams' top 2-3 starters. In 2015, for example, the Royals sent two starters to the mound for the World Series who had season ERAs at or below 3.58. Young (3.18) and Volquez (3.58). Young pitched games 1 and 4, while Volquez pitched game 5 (missed the beginning due to his father's passing). The Royals received great starts all 3 times and won all three games. When it comes to the pitchers you listed... Cole has 1 ring, AL Championship 2018 which means he also went to the World Series that year. He was 1 year old the last time the Twins went to the World Series. deGrom also has 1 ring, NL Championship in 2015 which means he's also been to the World Series. He was 3 the last time the Twins went to the World Series. Neither Cole nor deGrom were born yet for the 1987 season. Santana was the winning pitcher the last time the Twins won a playoff game in 2004. He pitched game 1 and game 3 on super short rest (an example of why the 4-5 starters don't matter in the playoffs). Santana still pitched great allowing 1 earned run only to have Gardy waste the effort with bad bullpen choices. In 2006, his last playoff appearance, Satnana gave the Twins 8 innings of 2 run ball, but they still lost. If your starter gives you 8 innings of 2 run ball, you win that game 70 or 80% of the time. Unfortunately, Santana never went to the playoffs again.

I'm not too impressed with the development of hitting in the Twins' system under Falvey and Levine, though I hardly think the book is closed. I think it's pretty easy to make the case either way right now.

Saw the highlights. Arraez's throw was definitely off, but the fact he got a glove on that ball was pretty impressive. Arraez has a pretty solid glove overall, but it doesn't help when he's played 3B about 10 games a year since 2018. Gant spiked the ball hard 6" outside of and in front of the plate, 2 feet away from where Garver's spot was. Based on the stance, and the high bounce, Garver had virtually no chance to block that ball.

Yep, he's a young'in. It's why so many people are so bullish on him. You're forgiven for expecting the Twins traded for a 28 year old re-tread with poor control, though, hahaha

I noticed another issue with the minor league reports the last couple days. Miranda's batting line showed less than 3 hits per game... that just doesn't seem right?

For me, it's about production based on the award name. Awards that ignore production and focus on popularity have long been an issue in baseball. I'd feel differently if this was an award for "Prospect of the Month" but it's an award for Minor League Hitter of the Month.

Woods-Richardson has had a rough month, not a rough year and at only age 20 in AA after missing a year because of the COVID-19 canceled season. The general thought is missing a year of playing time is much harder on younger prospects because they have less experience/muscle memory and their bodies are still filling out. He could be tiring out or he could just be working on a pitch or pitches instead of focusing on results themselves. Woods-Richardson was owning high A pitching at age 18. That's extraordinary. Besides that, he was certainly getting results, pitching excellent through June 20th. 7 GS, 30.0 IP, 2.70 ERA, 6.3 H/9, 3.3 BB/ 9, 14.4 K/9 in AA. Oh, and apart from 3 games this year, Woods-Richardson has a 2.7 BB/9 walk rate. He's just not consistent yet. It's not like Woods-Richardson is guaranteed to turn into an ace pitcher that makes Twins fans celebrate the Berrios trade, but the potential is there.

Stroatman is a lottery ticket, IMHO. I don't expect him to pan out, but if he does, awesome!

Palacios is definitely a prospect which has rebuilt a lot of his value in my opinion. He's average age for the competition in AA this year at 24, but he's overdue for a promotion to AAA. I'd like to see him in MLB this year. He has more plate appearances in 2021 than the last 2 years combined. His walk rate is way up, and the past couple years (with not many plate appearances) showed some really horrible BABIP luck. If Palacios can hit .700 OPS at the MLB level, he can fill in at shortstop until Lewis or Martin is ready (if they make it). If Palacios can hold a .725 OPS, he could very well be a legitimate MLB shortstop.

It's been two years of physical maturing for Lewis so I'd expect him to showcase improved bat speed and power. I share the concerns about his bat, but 2 months of .900 OPS play at AA would go a long ways to allievating any concern. It's too early to make a judgement based on what very much looks like just a down year to me. Don't forget, at age 19, Lewis was holding his own at A+. He actually took a step back at age 20. His BABIP has seemed a bit low in A+ and AA considering his speed out of the box, but there was no jump in K rate between A+ and AA, either. There's a lot of good signs.

If I were to choose a shortstop from the list for a short term deal, it would be Crawford, provided he's available.

I'd certainly think it's high time Palacios was moved to AAA. I'd really like to see him playing shortstop on the roster in September. It seems like the Twins have moved on from Gordon and are now trying to transform him into a center fielder. Honestly, no friggen clue what the front office is thinking. Maybe they'll move Miguel Sano to center field next. He used to play shortstop, too. I suppose it's not shocking. After all, I seem to recall Gardy started Chris Parmelee in center field one time.

Top shortstop options are: Correa, Story, Simien are tier 1. Baez and Seager are tier 2. Crawford is tier 3 based on age. There are some other options who could provide stability, but no real value like Simmons, Rojas, Iglesias and Galvis. I think the combination of Polanco and Arraez needs to be addressed. Both are starting 2B, and while I think Arraez could play 3B, he's blocked by Donaldson.

That's good news. All the guys are throwing a whole lot more innings than 2020, obviously. Maybe the thinking is Winder was tiring out a bit and they're hoping a break will help him bounce back? Any news on Canterino? He was expected to come back any time now, right?

The take on Balazovic is about 2 weeks out of sync since he's has had two rough starts in a row. 8.1 IP, 10 R, 9 ER. 9 BB, 7 K, 3HRs Winder has also gotten knocked around in his last 3 appearances 11.2 IP, 8R, 8ER, 1 BB, 7 K, 4HRs. He hasn't pitched in 10 days and isn't scheduled to pitch today, either. I haven't heard anything about injury?

I see nothing to indicate the Pohlad family is willing to "spend money to make money;" I believe that is a foreign concept to them when it comes to baseball. I also feel strongly the Pohlads are not interested in building a World Series caliber roster as I believe their primary desire is to field a team built to win 85-90 games and rely on luck the rest of the way. Still, I hold out hope they will break the mold, make me eat crow and spend in free agency to address obvious needs for next year. Short term ace (like Verlander) plus a solid upper/mid rotation starter (like Stroman) along with a shortstop and cement their outfield.

My thoughts on Lewis vs Martin. Royce Lewis is near Buxton speed and should be a lot faster than Austin Martin. Lewis has a speed grade of 70 with an 80 grade speed out of the box to first compared to Austin's 50-55. That said, blowing out his ACL could have long term impacts on his speed. Even though return from ACL injury takes 9-12 months, the speed can take longer to come back, if ever. I mean, unless you're Adrian Peterson. I think Martin's potential ETA depends a lot on whether or not the Twins are willing to invest time in trying to make Martin into a shortstop. Since Martin doesn't have the elite speed optimal for a CF, spending time to try and get him to grade out well as a shortstop is worth it, in my opinion. Martin doesn't have a plus graded arm, so he'll have to rely on reaction time, a sure glove and a quick release. Polanco has a similar arm grade at 50 which is borderline for a SS. If the Twins do invest in the shortstop route, I'd expect Martin to be an ETA of 2023. If the Twins just want Martin as soon as possible, I could see him at the MLB level roster next year. My thoughts on Lewis is... who knows? If he's able to heal up quick and get back to his original full speed before the start of next year, he'd have to absolutely rake at AA/AAA and excel defensively to make the Twins roster in September 2022. I'd put him on the same basic timeline as the shortstop version of Austin Martin.

The Twins were deadline winners. Almost every trade they made was viewed highly favorably, but yes, there were a couple moves they didn't make which are a bit perplexing. Simmons and Pineda still being on the roster makes no sense to pretty much anybody and I'm sure there was a market of some sort for both of them. I don't agree the Twins should have burned it all down if they are truly going to compete next year. Buxton and Rogers are still extension candidates, Donaldson is controlled for multiple years and can slot into DH as needed. For all the talk about his injury risk, Donaldson is 4th on the Twins for games played and the only time he's missed significant playing time this year is a sore hamstring at the very beginning of a season which saw catastorphic early season injury rates across the board. Now, if the Twins wind up being their typical selves in free agency, they are not going to compete next year and not starting the full rebuild is a major mark against the team.

So you're saying Francisco Liriano level meltdowns? Hope we're able to fix that haha

Personally, I think the whole "mentor" thing is way overrated.

The only reason the Twins were able to get him as part of the trade is because of the ERA performance this year. Had Woods-Richardson been pitching like previously, he would have been untouchable so I like the move. Woods-Richardson has the pitches to be a top of the rotation starter. I haven't heard anything about a 5th pitch, but having 4 out of high school is exciting enough. I'm pretty sure I read that Woods-Richardson's walk rate might come down to control vs. command. Throwing strikes vs. throwing exactly where he wants to throw. If he's working on command, it would stand to reason he might be missing his spots, aiming for corners or something. Tough to say, but at at his age, he's got a good 2-3 years before it's time to make a verdict.

Going down the list for average fastballs for some of the greatest pitchers in the past decade sure does show an interesting trend. Cole and deGrom have both increased their velocity the past couple years and when you look at the "best" today, they're just throwing harder and harder. That said, guys like Verlander, Scherzer, Kershaw, Greinke, Darvish and Sale have all continued to dominate with stuff at or below 95mph. Both Kershaw and Greinke are highly successful at 90mph. Having movement, deception and location is still dominant. I'd be more focused on getting Woods-Richardson to focus on command more than adding 2mph or something like that. He's got 4 pitches. Use them. Also, love that the Twins now have several 4+ pitch guys in the system. Canterino, Enlow and Winder are all 4 pitch guys as well. 99mph - deGrom 98mph - Cole 98mph - Syndergaard 96mph - Wheeler 96mph - Price (peak) 96mph - Strasburg 95mph - Verlander 95mph - F. Hernandez (peak) 95mph - Sale (peak) 94mph - Scherzer 94mph - Darvish 93mph - Hamels (peak) 93mph - Halladay (peak) 93mph - Lincecum (peak) 92mph - Lee (peak) 92mph - Bumgarner (peak) 92mph - Johan Santana (peak) 91mph - Kershaw 90mph - Greinke

I mean... any suggestions of using Matt Shoemaker as a veteran mentor for younger Twins pitchers at this point is probably sketchy. Lemme think about how that conversation goes. Shoemaker "Yeah, I like the guys personally, but the front office and all their moneyball B.S. will totally screw you up. Basically, they're nice, but clueless. Don't listen to them."