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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Joe Ryan is going to earn $20MM in arbitration next year under the current CBA and what just happened with Skubal. The Twins have lost an enormous amount of leverage in negotiations if they were to pursue them because Ryan is going to earn a ton in arbitration now. Freddy Peralta will be a good one to watch to compare with Joe Ryan assuming the 2027 season happens. Right now, Peralta is asking for 7-8 years on his next contract. I think Jose Berrios' 7 year $131MM extension for Ryan would be ballpark-ish at this point after the Skubal decision. Maybe a little higher AAV now that it's 5 years later.
  2. bean5302
    Ty Langenberg is doing some fun stuff in AA. At age 24 he owns a 1.54 ERA and a 0.88 FIP through 3 starts and 11.2 IP. Striking out 36% of hitters and walking a miserly 2.1%. He wasn't going to push up the charts much based on the results he got last year in Cedar Rapids, but it's fun to see some guys start off hot and wonder if they figured something out. In their first taste of MiLB two of last years drafted pitchers have started off hot in Ft Myers. Reed Morning and James Ellwanger both own 0.00 ERAs and are striking out more over 33% of hitters so far.
  3. bean5302
    Kreidler is NOT a CF. 120 career innings played in CF at MLB with a little in the minors and no reason to suspect he'd be good there with neutral to slightly below average results in the tiny sample size and 50 grade speed. Plus, he's worse at the plate than Outman. FGDC projection for Gonzalez this year? .256/.313/.389 OPS .702 wRC+ 96. There's a reason Gonzalez is playing 1B. It's because he can't be expected to cover corner outfield effectively. Supposedly, he's worked hard on conditioning to become less of a statue, but there isn't a great place for him on the roster atm.
  4. bean5302
    Kreidler is a joke on Twins fans. When the Twins claimed him, it was just trolling. Even at SS, Kreidler is a boat anchor on a ball club trying to even be a .500 team. Kreidler on the roster sealed the deal for me kicking around the idea of season ticket packages. A joke to see him on an MLB roster. If Emma isn't ready, he likely never will be. The Twins just burned his 3rd option and he's entering his 8th year as a professional baseball player in 2026. For a guy who had a ton of trade value a year ago, the front office missed a great chance to capitalize. Roden's OPS is over league average, and at age 26, it's time. Roden's ceiling is Austin Martin with a little more pop. He's a fine choice to replace Outman.
  5. bean5302
    Considering the Twins don't have any obvious guy they'd want on the mound to close out a game, somebody is going to have to earn it. We'll see as the season goes on, but I'd wager there will be an established closer role by June. If there isn't, that's not a great sign for the Twins' bullpen. Relievers have talked for a long time about the closer role and the added pressure which comes with it. Some pitchers aren't suited for the mental side of things, and some pitchers aren't suited well from a "stuff" standpoint.
  6. bean5302
    Interesting to see Gabriel Gonzalez at 1B. He's on the shorter side so I'm not sure he's a great fit at 1B compared to other players. Just another reason to cast Outman off the roster. The logjam in the outfield being worsened by Outman makes no sense.
  7. bean5302
    It's not just 0-18, it's 0-18 with 10 strikeouts, terrible exit velocity and terrible plate discipline coming off a year he hit .134 with 148 plate appearances. Outman is not MLB caliber. He should have been DFA'd before the season.
  8. bean5302
    Wins in April mean just as much as wins in September. It's nice to see the Twins find some out there. Bell has looked like other hot start veterans the Twins have enjoyed in recent seasons. Without him, it's tough to say where the Twins would be sitting. Regardless of expectations for the rest of the season, it does feel a lot nicer to be 9-7 than say, 5-11. Even if it's tough to understand how a team with the individual player stats like the Twins have pulled that off, haha.
  9. bean5302
    .280/.350/.380 is about where I expect Martin could finish the year. He's not going to be a plus bat, at all, but he could be an above average bat. He can't cover CF, but sure, he can stand where center fielders stand. Given Martin's arm, he's ill-suited for RF, but his range should allow him to make up for some of it provided his defensive instincts have improved. Martin is never going to put together a season of 3.0+ WAR, but he could maybe eek out some 2.0 WAR campaigns if he remains healthy and is given ample playing time. As far as comments about him running more on the base paths, he's been caught 3 of the 5 times he's tried so far this year.
  10. bean5302
    Nice to see Matthews trending in the right direction. Also, great to see Kendry Rojas activated from the IL in St. Paul. While the MLB depth was considered a potential strength for the Twins before Lopez went down this spring, going past 1-2 starters at AAA exposed a pretty soft underbelly in the the Saints rotation quality. I also like to see how well Raya is responding in the bullpen so far this year. Lots of K's not a ton of walks and nearly 60% ground balls. Still only 5.2 innings, but it's good to see.
  11. bean5302
    It's going to be so tough to figure out which of them wins the MVP, amirite?
  12. bean5302
    You put this exactly how I was trying to type it out the other day.
  13. bean5302
    I don't think Brooks Lee has anything to prove or learn in AAA. He's not an MLB caliber starting shortstop, but he'd be a solid enough cheap utility infielder, IMHO.
  14. bean5302
    I was considering season ticket package again. Kriedler on the roster ends that instantly. It's insanity. It's nothing but trolling fans.
  15. bean5302
    Through 4/11 2023 Joey Gallo .278/.350/.833 OPS 1.188 2024 Carlos Santana .125/.222/.156 OPS .378 2025 Ty France .300/.364/.480 OPS .844 Probably a little early to be taking much from performances.
  16. bean5302
    Wallner doesn't get enough hate around here. I want him at SS so I can get entertainment from reading comments with people absolutely losing their minds in here. Better yet, if the Twins can defend the move by talking about Wallner's strong arm. I don't ever want to see Kriedler in an MLB game. Brooks Lee, for all his faults, is way better overall.
  17. bean5302
    Morris provides high quality short term injury replacement rotational depth IMHO. That said, if they can get high end relief value from him, I'm all for seeing him out of the bullpen.
  18. bean5302
    If Wallner makes that catch, it's on every single highlight reel for MLB. His last adjustment to change from looking over the right shoulder to looking at it over the left shoulder while running back put him out of position. Wallner made a near impossible catch look "possible" but he didn't make it. But 50% of this site absolutely hates the guy. So what can you do? LOL
  19. bean5302
    Average OPS on bunts in MLB is about .580. Obviously, that's going to be with 0-1 strikes as bunts can't seriously be attempted with 2 strikes. .290/.290/.290 OPS .580 wRC+ 60ish. Even a very good bunter isn't going to be very successful when it comes to dragging a bunt for a hit. Bunting is really a situational thing. Outman has the advantage of being a left handed hitter so he could potentially benefit from a strong infield shift, but you're only really going to see that when there aren't any RISP. With RISP, his chance at getting on base with a bunt aren't going to be very good and his chance for extra bases is really nil. Might be able to sac bunt a run in with guys at the corners so the 1B can't play in.
  20. bean5302
    Outman is DaShawn Keirsey 2.0 at this point, except not as fast and even more expensive and without options. I don't think the Twins would have a problem DFA'ing him and having him pass through waivers. It's clear Outman is working on his approach at the plate trying to cut down the strikeouts, but he's going to need regular plate appearances to make progress. It's better for him to try to learn how to hit in MiLB rather than at the MLB level. The question is do we want Rodon or Emma or Gonzalez up here sitting on the bench and playing defensive replacement while the Twins have other players as the primary left fielder? If a player is going to be sacrificed to the defensive replacement role, I'd rather it not be a higher ceiling guy.
  21. bean5302
    Excessive glove movement is considered a negative for framing, especially after the ball is in the glove. Jeffers and the Twins had an approach change, I think, last year when Jeffers was essentially setting up middle-middle for all pitches to help the pitchers throw strikes. Umpires adjust to framing techniques over time which requires catcher techniques to constantly evolve in order to maintain reputation as a good framer which may help explain why catcher framing is not repeatable from year to year. It's basically a junk stat, IMHO. ABS challenge proficiency is in its infancy and I can't imagine other catchers have a hard time with identifying the strike zone. The question long term is whether Jeffers is so good he can get an appreciable advantage over other catchers when he can only be wrong 2x per game? Also... is ABS challenge going to be a thing at all? Will MLB move to fully automated ball/strike systems in the future? If they move to full automation, catcher framing is worthless entirely. It shifts catcher defensive metrics hard towards pitch blocking, where he's pretty average-ish, and controlling the run game where he's definitely below average. Jeffers value as a catcher is really in his bat, his ability to be an adequate catcher, and his durability in an era where catchers are rarely asked to play full seasons worth of games.
  22. bean5302
    Provided he duplicates last year's performance, I'd say Jeffers is probably in line for a 3-4 year deal at $40-55MM or so. He'll be entering his age 30 season next year so longer term contracts for a catcher aren't likely materializing, and Jeffers isn't elite, he's just good. Changing his plate approach to improve OBP and contact is probably more sustainable than his previous high K, high power approach.
  23. bean5302
    Next up, Byron Buxton doesn't win the lottery... AGAIN!!! Buxton continues his 0-32 jackpot streak, and he deserves to win at this point. It's unfair. Buck's xwOBA is a miserable .250. It won't stay there and we don't have enough sample size to take really anything away from "expected" metrics. But, yes, his results are warranted based on his plate performance. He's popping everything up and not squaring up the ball much.
  24. bean5302
    I'll take the win, and the strong results from Ober. The Tigers were not hitting his pitches well at all, despite even more decline on the velocity. As noted above, after inning 3, Ober's fastball sat in the 87.x mph range a scary amount. Kyle Hendricks (4.76 ERA 86.6mph) and Trevor Williams (6.21 ERA 87.9mph) are the only starters out of 221 pitchers with more than 30 innings last year who managed lower than Ober's 88.1mph average yesterday. I don't think it's sustainable for him, but Ober will continue to get the call for a while. It would be really interesting to see him be successful as a soft tosser. I think it would also be good for the game in general.
  25. bean5302
    Twins expanding bad fielder model by continuing to move players from position to position as soon as they look like they're making progress. Zoll - We started to see player <x> smoothing out in his fielding at 2B, so we knew we had to get him to a new position which was completely different and would really make him look like he has rock hands as soon as possible. At all costs, we want to avoid having any position players on the team. We want 13 utility players kicking balls around the field and throwing gloves at grounders like little league. One of our biggest regrets, organizationally, was not being able to move Byron Buxton around the field during his MiLB career. We could have really messed his defensive game up by slotting him in at SS a little, maybe some catcher. But he came up through the previous regime. Best we could do was put him at DH sometimes. Super disappointing. Now he's established as a "center fielder." Honestly, it's one of the reasons we didn't want to extend him back in 2021. Buxton wanted to remain a CF, but Derek was insistent. "You have to play some 3B." Can't believe Buxton wasn't receptive. Oh well. We'll survive.
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