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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    It's encouraging Plouffe is giving Tom the thumbs up as far as I'm concerned. Plouffe has not been a patsy for the Twins front office in the past or the ownership. He's been openly and vocally critical of ownership many times. I'm not impressed with the roster construction of this team at all, but the roster construction is on Falvey and now Zoll, who I don't think has a job at the end of the year at this point.
  2. bean5302
    I think it's strange how his proponents ignore the fact he doesn't put the Twins in a good position to win ball games. Every run a pitcher allows makes a massive difference to the likelihood of winning a game. That's why the traditional 3 ER allowed in 6 innings isn't a very good performance. It's a 4.50 ERA. If a starter goes out and delivers 6 IP and allows 3 ER, the lineup can be expected to need to generate 5 runs to win the game. Similarly, if a pitcher can't at least get all the way through the 5th inning, it's exhausting for the bullpen... which can be expected to allow at least 1, but often 2 more runs in a game. A real quality start is a pitcher who goes out there, gives a team 5.0+ innings with an ERA below 4.00. Sim got demoted to AAA because he was struggling to do that. I believe he was down at 37.5% QS rate at that point. Not the worst ever, but bad enough to deserve being sent to AAA... on the Twins. 2025 = 45% (10 of 22) 2024 = 43% (12 of 28)
  3. bean5302
    I could see that working more frequently. With just one longer reliever, there's less danger of bullpen arms running out, but there's still the issue of... when do you need the long reliever? If Ober and SWR go 3 innings back to back, you can't use your long reliever again. If all 5 arms are good enough to go 6-7 innings for a week through the rotation, you waste your long guy. I think the theory is good if everything were stable. I just don't think there's ever a cop when you need one.
  4. bean5302
    Lewis was told in 2021-2022 offseason he was going to be the starting shortstop for the Minnesota Twins in 2022. Then the Twins unexpectedly signed Correa. Of course, Lewis wound up pushed off SS due to obvious rank behind Carlos Correa. Lewis was moved to CF to cover for Buxton, which worked out splendidly for all involved after Lewis met the CF wall with his not quite fully recovered knee. Lewis was again expected to be the starting shortstop for the Twins in 2023, but the Twins again unexpectedly brought back Carlos Correa. Lewis showed some defensive struggles in his 3rd Base play time after that relating to his throwing accuracy. In 2024, Lewis' continued defensive struggles with throwing after he loss of the first few months to a quad strain saw Baldelli bury Lewis in the depth charts behind Correa and the more polished, though less capable Brooks Lee. Lewis remained at 3rd, but was told he was going to be used at 2B to shorten up the throwing distance. That obviously went well. In 2025, Lewis showed a lot of progress at 3rd base and had a relatively healthy season for a change, but I don't know as he has the skills to play SS at this point, but his physical skill set should be substantially better than any other player who could potentially play SS who is also expected to be on the Twins' 26 man roster to open the season. So... maybe he could, maybe he couldn't? I KNOW Brooks Lee didn't have the skills to cover it, and it would be a major stretch to believe he would ever get fast or get a strong arm.
  5. bean5302
    First, I don't agree with the idea pitchers who are used to throwing 50-60 pitches can suddenly jump to 90-100 pitches effectively or without risk to injury. Second, it wipes out your bullpen in practice. If pitchers are used to being used every 4 days and throwing 50-60 pitches, they're not going to be available on 1 or 2 days of rest when one of the very few relievers you have left just do not "have it" one day. You never know when you need a bullpen to soak up 1 inning or 8 innings, and going from 10-30 pitches to 50-60 pitches to 90-100 pitches is not something pitchers can adapt to in short time frames.
  6. bean5302
    Canterino is not hurt again. He's still recovering from the same shoulder surgery he had last year. At the time of the surgery last year, Nick Paparesta said it was likely Matt would have a longer recovery than the 12 month typical time frame. Canterino had the surgery mid-March last year so expecting him back before the end of Spring Training this year was a long shot to begin with. I'm no Canterino simp, but I'm not going to be unfair to him, either. I think it's unlikely Canterino EVER sees the mound in a real MLB game. I believe the Twins signed Canterino 90% as a charity move to give him a chance to rehab while having his medical expenses and recovery paid by the team. 10% a just in case he actually comes back from shoulder surgery. The findings in Canterino's evaluation by Dr. Keith Meister was basically his shoulder ligaments were loose after having several shoulder strains and the ligaments needed to be shortened to tighten the shoulder up. That's a really big deal, and it takes a long time to recover from it. I wish Matt the best in his recovery, and there's always a glimmer of hope the work he does in the process to let the ligaments heal AND to strengthen his shoulder to the point he doesn't have the strains show up again successfully allow him to return to pitching without a career ending velocity loss.
  7. bean5302
    Royce Lewis' speed started to show substantial improvement later in the year. Even beat up, Lewis is substantially faster than Brooks Lee, has a stronger arm than Lee as well. Lee might not be able to outrun prime Chris Parmelee ('ol tree trunks)
  8. bean5302
    Oh SS is definitely more demanding from a physical skills standpoint. It's the injury bug thing I was talking about. There seems to be an idea players will magically be healthier if they switch to positions which require a lesser physical skillset to be an "effective" defender. 3B gets a couple fewer plays a game than SS, but the player doesn't need the speed as much. 2B gets more than SS, but the arm doesn't have to be involved, and accuracy can be way lower since the distance is so much closer. It's way HARDER to be a good shortstop than 2B or 3B because you need to be quick, fast AND have a strong arm an accurate throwing. 3B drops off the speed requirement, 2B drops off the arm requirements. Shortstop is reserved for the most physically gifted athelete on teams, generally. Even more so than catchers, but catchers require a lot of unique skills and insane leg endurance. That said, the player is going to use their skills at whatever position they play, and every position in the infield or outfield requires running, diving, throwing, etc.
  9. bean5302
    He's got no options so he'll either be in the rotation or the bullpen. It's his job to lose in Spring Training. As it stands right now, there are 4 spots which are pretty much locks in the rotation AFAIC. 1 Pablo Lopez (no options) 2 Joe Ryan (3 options has only 4yrs service time) 3 Bailey Ober (1 option has only 4 yrs service time) 4 Simeon Woods Richardson (no options) Leaving the 5th spot open for Taj Bradley (1 option) Zebby Matthews (2 options) David Festa (2 options) Mick Abel (2 options) Kendry Rojas (3 options) Connor Prielipp (3 options) Andrew Morris (3 options) SWR has a lot of fans around here with his smoke and mirrors results show. I'm not one of his advocates primarily because he hasn't demonstrated the endurance needed for a starter role despite a sizable sample at this point. That said, he got the results needed from a #4-5 arm when he was on the mound.
  10. bean5302
    I am consistent because I look at more than just the numbers I like. Yes, these kinds of fungible relievers do fall out of trees. Just because Zoll was willing to give up prospect capital money to get Banda doesn't mean other teams were. The Dodgers didn't DFA Banda expecting a big payout. They were hoping for a sucker and found one. These types of relievers get DFA'd all the time. Michael Tonkin has a better track record than Banda for example, he was DFA'd about 824 times in the last couple years, and he's on the free agent market right now. Want a better reliever? Danny Columbe is still available. Plenty of relievers on MiLB contracts with better track records than Banda like Scott Blewett.
  11. bean5302
    I haven't seen much supporting these kinds of assumptions, but they certainly seem widespread. As if SS is way less stressful than 2B or 3B. Same motions, just literally a couple fewer plays a game.
  12. bean5302
    Jeremy Zoll can get canned any time now. Any fan in the forum is apparently just as skilled as he is at identifying talent. The maximum amount of "mid" allowed for a move I can possibly generate. Banda isn't exactly "impressive" against lefties. He was downright abysmal vs. righties. A 5.66 BB/9? That 5.54 FIP and 5.07 xFIP are generous.
  13. bean5302
    Prielipp is definitely going to continue starting now that Falvey has been moved out of the way.
  14. bean5302
    Canterino has almost no sample size above the low minors, he walked everybody in sight at AA and was the beneficiary of a super low BABIP. His xFIP suggests he was hardly "dominant" he was just lucky. Prielipp actually had some substantial experience at AA, and despite being his first full season back from TJ, showed far better control than Canterino, and had much more impressive (dominant) expected stats. Something which could be projected.
  15. bean5302
    Prielipp had a failed TJ surgery 5 years ago which needed to be re-done. Prielipp doesn't have any injury problems.
  16. bean5302
    I think Falvey micromanaged with an iron fist.
  17. bean5302
    Great non-guaranteed signing. Not sure how many modern day Mariano Rivera's fans in here think are on the market right now, but it's zero, just for the record. This is the RP free agent market right now. Several are better than Chris Paddack, who just signed for 5x the league minimum despite deserving a MiLB contract, just in case anybody was checking. Hendriks needs to get some control back and an uptick for velocity. I doubt he'll be able to do it, but he's not under guaranteed contract. The upside is pretty huge, downside is negligable
  18. bean5302
    I'm sure Tampa Bay's coaches were trying to encourage Taj to improve his prep, and it goes to my concern he was just arrogant and uncoachable like I suspect SWR was. Seems like the trade might have been the move that hit home for Bradley to recognize his career was trending towards ending sooner than later, just like SWR having no options and coming into 2024 as a rotation long-shot was a wake up call for SWR his career was coming to a end soon. It's actually highly concerning for attitudes like that in the long run. Players who have to be motivated by outside forces can sometimes work hard for a year or two, get the big guaranteed payday and then coast again.
  19. bean5302
    Yeah, last year's 4.37 xFIP isn't good at all, but it's "passable" for a pre-arb player on team like the Twins as a #5. That said, Bradley's previous 2 seasons of xFIP were 3.62 (better than any significant starter on the Twins last year) and 3.83 (as good or better than any significant starting pitcher not named Joe Ryan last year) The far higher xFIP in 2025 is obviously related to Bradley's struggles with location. His K rate absolutely cratered and his BB rate increased substantially. Bradley needs to throw strikes, but without the strikes being meatballs.
  20. bean5302
    Grade = F Standard operating procedure for Falvey run front offices. Bullpen? Not addressed. SS? Not addressed. DH? Not addressed. Bunch of depth signings we don't need? Addressed.
  21. bean5302
    SWR was uncoachable until his last opportunity weeks before his career washed out in 2024 when he went to Twins coaches and asked for help. I don't know about his analytics knowledge. Your claim seems quite sensational, as if you're close personal friends with these players. In any case, if SWR can teach Bradley anything, it's to accept coaching. The Twins didn't make Ryan's fastball effective. It was his only good pitch when we traded for him. The added velocity came from adding even more extension, which was designed to improve his other pitches' performance. Tampa was in contention. They were 1.5 GB from the Wild Card. Yes, there's reason to be concerned Taj Bradley will be a Brandon Pfaadt. Very good stuff, but it just doesn't seem to convert to the scoreboard. The fact Bradley continues to throw so many meatballs and locate his stuff in the middle of the zone to get crushed is concerning. Tampa developed Joe Ryan, who didn't have exceptional "ride" on his fastball, it's performance was just attributed to being deceptive on his release point and arm angle. Aside from that, Tampa has a long history of developing high performing arms. I don't know why Tampa's front office was throwing in the towel on Bradley. Maybe he was uncoachable like SWR was for the Twins until his time ran out?
  22. bean5302
    Bradley's problem isn't pitch selection or quality. It's meatballs.
  23. bean5302
    Per MLBTR, looks like Verlander is headed back to Detroit. He was very good towards the end of the season so there's reason for Detroit to be optimistic about his value. At just $13MM, seems like a steal to me. Maybe he took a discount to make a trip back to where it all started for him. Tigers probably just got better, and I feel they were already favorites for the division. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/02/tigers-sign-justin-verlander.html
  24. bean5302
    If it's anything like previous seasons, that's not true. The team would be about 60-40 at the deadline so Falvey/Zoll could pretend it was a playoff team before they could utterly collapse in the 2nd half as the front office does nothing. 19-43 as the worst team in baseball rolls out busted up players desperately needing IL time and big gaps in the roster they pretend doesn't exist. I mean, the Twins do 79-83 with STYLE! LOL
  25. bean5302
    Paddack isn't replacing Adams or Klien, he'd be counted on to be one of the most commonly used pitchers at $4MM. 5.25 ERA or a 5.75 ERA? If a heavily used bullpen arm is that bad, does it really matter? At that point are we arguing whether the Twins win 55 games or 56?
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