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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Anderson has pitched 4.1 innings for the Twins. Things have looked pretty good with him on the mound, but 4.1 innings is nothing. He probably has THE worst fastball in all of MLB (excluding position players) so I'm not sure he can keep the results up. Let's give this some time before announcing the success of finding him.
  2. bean5302
    Culpepper is holding his own in AAA, but he's probably "adequate" at SS, and it's tough to say how Culpepper's bat will play at 3B. Culpepper is 100% a 3B if Houston is on the roster. It's pretty tough to predict what the Twins look like next year AFAIC.
  3. bean5302
    Kremer is a back end rotation starter and the Twins treated his acquisition as such. This is a depth move, and a pretty decent one. Ryan, Bradley and Prielipp look like bona fide rotation guys at this point, but I'd say only 2 of the 3 are worthy of trusting in the playoffs. The rest is awfully questionable. That's only 3 starters worthy of a rotation spot. Picking up a back end arm makes sense.
  4. bean5302
    "Baby Bro" Pohlad was not an owner. He was a spokesperson for ownership so I doubt Joe had much to do with setting the team's budget or pushing the ownership for more funds. Tom Pohlad is the controlling owner.
  5. bean5302
    This is so overdramatic. Buxton's injury has no impact on the Twins deadline plans, and I think that was outright proven already when the Twins took on the largest AAV reliever contract they've had since 2011 when Joe Ryan departed. The Twins are buyers.
  6. bean5302
    The vast majority of trades will be made Sunday or Monday. These are just the teasers. Picking up a reliever like Mintner signals the Twins are obvious buyers. It doesn't suggest the Twins are going to make a big change in payroll. I think the owners are probably going to get the hard salary cap this time around, and we may lose a lot of 2027 to get it, but with the cap will come a hard floor. The floor is going to be at least $150MM, but I'd wager higher than that.
  7. bean5302
    Reds would definitely say no. Guessing Kaelen Culpepper is maybe +30, Quick is maybe +10. Probably 20MM-ish of trade value short. Add Emma and you're probably there.
  8. bean5302
    Having both Tinney and Lackey plunked back to back is a little annoying. I like what I saw in regard to the strike zone control for our new prospects, though!
  9. bean5302
    Sabato isn't a prospect. He's got a ton of experience under his belt and he's capitalizing on mistake pitches which was core to his hitting philosophy. He exit velocity doesn't project well, he generates an extremely high rate of pop ups and has poor contact on balls outside the zone. He does recognize the zone acceptably well, and his raw power is real, but there's a reason his projection looks so rough.
  10. bean5302
    Way more telling than the prospects is the fact the Twins took on a reliever with an $11MM contract this year and spotrac is reporting Minnesota took on about $3.4MM of 2026 payroll as a result. It's not huge, but it's not nothing, either. A few more moves like this (and I do expect them to come at this point) would go a long way to quiet the speculation on whether the ownership is willing to put their money where their mouth is. Amick is a non-prospect. Agbayani is an interesting, but very back end of the prospect list guy right now. June 16, 2026 https://blogs.fangraphs.com/minnesota-twins-top-50-prospects/ 48. Bruin Agbayani, 2B Drafted: 6th Round, 2025 from Saint Louis School (HI) (MIN) Age 19.2 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr L / R FV 35+ Tool Grades (Present/Future) Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw 25/60 30/40 20/30 45/45 40/50 45 Bruin Agbayani (Benny’s son) signed out of a Hawaii high school for $380,000 last year rather than head to Michigan. He’s a physical, lefty-hitting infielder with great hand-eye coordination and barrel feel, but below-average bat speed. He had a 90% zone contact rate across 74 pro plate appearances in Fort Myers before he injured his shoulder and was put on the 60-day injured list in May. He was getting reps at both middle infield positions, but he’s realistically going to be limited to second and third base due to throwing inaccuracy and limited range at shortstop. Agbayani is a bigger kid without a ton of room on his frame for strength, and yet he doesn’t have big power right now. He needs to continue to make a premium rate of contact to retain prospect status as he climbs.
  11. bean5302
    Guessing Greene is about +$50MM in surplus value, plus up to 20% due to market right now. So figure $60MM surplus value. That's very high end (short of mega elite) territory. Emma + Abel + Hill + Keaschall might get it done.
  12. bean5302
    you have an extra space between "is" and "usually"
  13. bean5302
    Gomez has a 5.18 xERA, a 4.58 FIP and a 5.24 xFIP. He's getting soooooo lucky. Andrew Morris' xFIP suggests a bunch of regression too, but his other peripherals are good. I wouldn't want to lean on him as a setup or closer. I think the Twins need both a closer and a setup guy.
  14. bean5302
    I don't know about that. Houston's production at AA this year is better than Culpepper's was last year. Culpepper does not project as a plus hitter at the MLB level right now. He might be serviceable, maybe he'll exceed projections, but projection models look pretty similar for Houston and Culpepper at MLB.
  15. bean5302
    Dobnak is getting chase rates like his prime and he's in the ball park of where he needs to be with the ground ball rate so far this year in the minimal playing time we can review. The version of Randy Dobnak the Royals have seen is an adequate #5 rotation arm, but the stuff and exit velocities suggest it's just a matter of time. The Twins' lineup is looking awfully punch-less right now, though.
  16. bean5302
    Roden's results are terrible again this year, and his expected stuff isn't good, either. I'd like to see him get to 100 PA at least before he's relegated to MiLB roster filler and injury replacement depth, but I've almost seen enough, myself.
  17. bean5302
    You're laughing at the ridiculousness.... but Why is it any more of a stretch than Luke Keaschall in CF? Jackson has over 150 games in the outfield in MiLB including (a long time ago 9 games in CF). Jackson is as fast as Austin Martin and he has a strong arm. Under the Twins motto of "positional flexibility" I honestly don't see a big difference here. I too think that would be pretty crazy, but within Falzoll-land, not as much as I'd think, probably.
  18. bean5302
    If you're taking on a project and you're researching whatever it is. Does the project happen or start to happen before you do it? What if no trade gets made. Did a trade happen anyway on paper? Feels to me like you're just extra combative on this.
  19. bean5302
    Thanks for that. The source backing up the work which needs to be done is huge, and it was something I hadn't been able to find in my searches.
  20. bean5302
    It's a good article that just re-affirms that almost nothing happens until the actual deadline day. As much as fans might want to know what direction a team is heading, we're going to be in the dark until then, LOL.
  21. bean5302
    @Greggory Masterson I'm tired of hearing this when there is no source indicating Tinney's a poor defensive backstop. Tinney won the Gold Glove for best defensive catcher in college baseball. https://www.abca.org/ABCA/ABCA/Awards/Gold_Glove/2026.aspx https://www.burntorangenation.com/general/103255/carson-tinney-minnesota-twins-mlb-draft
  22. bean5302
    Hancock is a questionable playoff caliber starter. He's changed his slider and added a cutter this year which has paid dividends, but the scouting reports probably haven't fully caught up. He probably makes the Twins a little better at the back end of the rotation. Royce Lewis has like +8 surplus value (minimal.) Keaschall is probably like +30. They're going to be viewed dramatically different by teams. In any case, Hancock would not be my target. Moving the Twins from 1.8% to win the World Series to 1.9% doesn't make me interested. Gausman isn't going to cost a ton of prospect capital. He's at like +4MM surplus. He's the kind of starter the Twins should target.
  23. bean5302
    The AL West has won the World Series 3x in the past decade and send a team to the World Series 5x. The Astros, Rangers and Mariners are all consistently good teams. It's a solid division. You're right. No guarantees. Infinite mediocrity vs. going for it and a risk of falling on our face for a year or two. No risk, no reward.
  24. bean5302
    Brooks Lee is the same guy he was last year and the year before. Exactly the same player. Just like Javier Baez last year was wOBA .325 wRC+108 at the All Star Break, but with an xwOBA of .291, guess where he finished? (wOBA .293). Brooks Lee will finish this season well below average in production. He didn't change, he just had good luck. Brooks Lee swings soft, hits the ball soft, is aggressive chasing pitches outside the zone, and doesn't take walks. He's not Luis Arraez because Lee doesn't hit line drives and he strikes out 3x more often. This team is not close to a World Series competitive. It's not a .500 team. It's a sub-.500 team that only has a snowballs chance at making the playoffs because they play in the most embarrassing division in the history of professional sports.
  25. bean5302
    Because the Twins can't call 24 teams in MLB and tell them not to trade anybody to other teams in the AL Central. The Twins are not a playoff caliber competitive team right now. They're 9th in the AL in run differential and 20th in MLB. For every bad bounce you're going to argue for the Twins like 'Ryan Jeffers was out' (Twins went 25-22 with Jeffers out) or 'whatever player ate Taco Bell lettuce' there are two good bounces like Brooks Lee's expected production is .226/.285/.329 OPS .614 wRC+ 75ish, but through incredible luck, he's league average at OPS .729. You think that's going to continue? Ryan Kreidler has hit MLB average at SS. Josh Bell has been hitting like it's 2019 again lately. Those abberrations are not going to continue.
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