bean5302

Matthews has the stuff to be a #2, maybe even an ace, just not a Cy Young candidate right now. From Stuff+ This is Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray and Zebby Matthews. Which pitcher do you think has the best stuff? Matthews is the top line. Lopez is #2 Ryan is #3 Gray's 2023 is #4

Meh. Fans don't care about names on the roster. The Twins could trade Lopez or Ryan today and it would make no significant difference in attendance. The Twins signed Correa and Twins attendance was lower in 2022 than in 2021 relative to the league. Sure, it gets internet forums excited, but it doesn't really put butts in the seats. It takes a major investment, then results, then re-investment to generate excitement.

MLBPA didn't value arbitration eligible players in negotiations. Instead, they've always pushed for agreements which favored stars maximizing their big free agency contracts. I do think arbitration has been especially unfair to players who have down years entering into arbitration, but arbitration is part of overall competitive balance baked into the CBA. Without full revenue sharing, instantaneous free agency would render small and mid market teams entirely to be the Dodgers AAAA farm outlet. Pre-arbitration years are often where players adapt their game prior to entering their prime. Teams spending literally millions of dollars and the better part of a decade developing these players only to watch them leave to make the Dodgers into 17x in a row World Series winners the moment they're ready is equally unfair. The arbitration models are designed to keep costs under control for small-mid market teams who can't afford their payrolls to double as a result of having a few young core players having 1 good year. I don't think the next CBA is going to completely blow everything up for the entire financial side of baseball.

Could the Twins package up Ryan or Lopez? Sure, but I think Lopez only gets moved if the Twins are willing to sign a guy like Gallen to replace Lopez and just grab some cost controlled 2.0 WAR talent ceiling back to firm up one spot on the roster. I don't see a lot of good trade partners for Ryan at this point in the season if the Twins are looking to be competitive. What the Twins need back has to be MLB caliber talent so finding a trade partner who is both looking to add MLB talent (Ryan) and give up MLB talent when rosters are largely jelled already seems unlikely. I also don't think adding any substantial salary is possible without offloading some salary at the same time. I wrote up a blueprint the other day using this site's GM tool reflecting what the Twins "could" do to field a competitive team this year.

I mean... everybody can have an opinion, but Larnach is a league average bat. Wallner has always been far superior to Larnach in terms of production at the plate. vs.

Yes, buying a pass to all 81 games is a lousy deal if you're going to attend less than 20. Buying a season pass to Valley Fair is a bad deal if you're going to go once. In general, I'm sick of the whining about the cost of attending Twins games on this site from people who could come up with a list of excuses longer than a girl not interested in a guy that is asking them out. Twins games aren't expensive to attend. The problem is they haven't been very fun to attend.

Opening day payrolls: 2017-2025 101MM 131MM 121MM 128MM 125MM 131MM 141MM 128MM 146MM While the end of 2025 saw a payroll sell off, according to thebaseballcube.com, as of opening day, 2025 had the highest payroll in Twins history. The idea the Pohlads cut payroll in Falvey's final years is BS. I realize it's 2026 and this is the internet so I should expect misinformation everywhere, but the facts are the Pohlads allowed the highest payrolls in club history for the years prior to 2026. Last single year. Last two years. Last three years. Doesn't matter. Honestly, I do think the Pohlads had a chilling effect on the payroll earlier in Falvey's tenure. When the Twins missed out on guys like Yu Darvish and Zack Wheeler due to what was reported as pushback from ownership to give out longer contracts. That's partially on ownership, but also partially on Falvey to sell them on the idea. I think if the Twins would have landed Wheeler or Darvish, we may well be singing a different tune today, but then again, when given the opportunity to keep Gray, Falvey failed to recognize the value in having a playoff caliber rotation. Maybe that was the impact of Levine on his way out? In any case, Falvey was given a team with an outstanding, cost controlled young core and he failed to build a serious threat in the playoffs. The talent level on the current MLB roster is inferior to what he inherited, and the farm system is no better. Any GM would have been expected to rebuild the front office, scouting and analytics. The fact Falvey oversaw the bare minimum isn't impressive, just a "meets expectations" part of his review.

Here's your blueprint.

Yeah, useless if you plan on giving the pass as a gift. Gets you into the game for only fricken $3 if you're planning on attending.

I suspect the MLBPA will be weighing in on this for the next CBA. Players who sign MLB contracts and are then immediately DFA'd to try to get them through waivers and blackmail them to stay in the minors isn't a good look. Historically, the process plays out with the Dobnaks of the world, but to see it actively used to bait-n-switch players while handcuffing them is BS.

Your position is that the Pohlads sets the strategy and tasked Falvey to carry it out. Cardinals owners did dictate a strategy shift and a full rebuild with deep payroll slashing at all costs. I don't think that's the same for the Twins. Falvey didn't seem to know what the payroll was going to be. It feels to me like the Pohlads likely told Falvey to present options, and ownership selected the compete in 2026 strategy presented and Falvey failed to carry out the necessary moves to realistically follow through.

I think this has far-reaching consequences for all players in their final years of arbitration, especially. This changes everything about arbitration. The old method of linear graded increases is destroyed by this decision. A perfect example is Joe Ryan. He's making $6.2MM this year, but next year, it's likely he will now command $15MM+ in arbitration. Consider Royce Lewis, who if he turns back into who he was in 2023 could easily go from $6MM to $30MM in his final year...

Couldn't make it happen realistically in my modeling. That's +$15MM on the books without the bullpen being addressed yet. It's $44MM tied up in 2 pitchers, even assuming the new projections at Gallen is going to get 2yrs $42MM-ish. Also, what's Gallen's upside? He's probably treading water in the rotation swapping Ryan for Gallen, if we're being realistic after last season. I was trading Ryan to the Nationals for CJ Abrams and James Wood, but I decided the Nationals wouldn't make the deal with only 2 years of Joe Ryan control. Even though Ryan WAS coveted across baseball, the number of teams willing to part with MLB talent the Twins really need right now is very limited. Those teams are looking to compete already so they're likely not wanting to play musical chairs with the roster at this stage when there isn't much on the FA market.

Falvey was fired for a reason. Given a budget of $200MM, he'd find a way to sign 10 has-been scrubs for $100MM of it. Ownership does not determine the methodology. They don't choose the personnel. The reason the Twins and Cardinals look different is Derek Favley. Not Tom Pohlad. Pohlad may have given the direction on the budget and the ownership expectations. "You have $110MM and we expect to be competitive this year with that budget. Present your methodology, and implement the process." Falvey signed has-been scrub DH Josh Bell for $7MM (upside down contract in BTV) when he already had Trevor Larnach of the same value for $4.7MM. He kept both instead of Eugenio Suarez for $15MM. Tom Pohlad didn't make any of those types of decisions and they represent Falvey's failures of methodologies.

Given the abominable attendance at Target Field, the chances you'll be stopped by ushers, even for some lower level seats is pretty low. I've had to kick people out of my seats endlessly from 2022-2023 (left field bleachers) before springing for club level in 2024 before the bait-n-switch payroll cut was announced. So, getting into the stadium is as good as having seats in non-premium sections if you're willing to occasionally do the walk/slide of shame. There's also the ability to reserve seats in Truly On Deck. The overlook seats are actually a very solid view, right above section 101 at Club Level height so there are ways to make Twins pass work pretty well for people as of right now. Best season ticket deals remains the left field bleachers, row 8 IMHO. $20/game. *Pros: Seats are always dry, no strong winds, shaded, a surprisingly great view of the game (you'll know immediately off the bat if it's a HR, etc), able to look up and see the monitor for close up views of replays. *Cons: No ability to view main scoreboard. No cupholders, aluminum benches freeeeeeeeeeezing cold for temps below 60*, blind spot for plays at the wall, constantly getting up to let kids run down to the front to try and get balls between innings.

Tom Pohlad doesn't make personnel decisions. Are you advocating for firing Jeremy Zoll and changing his title from owner to: Tom Pohlad, President of Baseball Operations despite Pohlad specifically saying that's not something he's going to do because he's uncomfortable with it?

Probably more "Other Baseball" than Minnesota Twins talk, but if the Twins want a likely front line pitcher still, they can add Zac Gallen for much less. I don't see the payroll jumping to $130MM+ considering the Pohlad's messaging, and based on how Falvey made some questionable decisions with his budget again before being fired, it'd be awfully tough to work a $20MM+ pitcher into the rotation at this point. I actually tried to fit Gallen into my just recent blueprint, but it was a total house of cards situation.

Ride the bench here or play every day in Tampa. Which would you prefer? The Twins can provide Bell with plenty of incentive to accept a trade. Bell can waive the no-trade restriction, but the Twins cannot get back any player with more than a $50k contract value. Basically, the Twins can only get back PTBNL MiLB contract guys.

Sure, the Twins could have a whole bunch of players rebound or have a late year season Renaissance like Carlos Santana had for one season. It's just not likely. It's easy for me to take a look at each individual player, roll a couple Monopoly dice and hope double-digit totals. It's not far-fetched to see that happen a few times in 20+ rolls. But to never see any rolls below 5 or to see 10+ double-digit roll totals through the whole process is the concern people have.

Opening day payroll went from $150-130-140-110. The opening day payroll increased in 2025. The sell off dropped the season total payroll.

This is the ultimate TD writer's Derek Falvey = Alex Kirilloff piece. Any fan of Twins Daily knows Alex Kirilloff was destined to win the MVP award twice each season if it just wasn't for being injured. The writers conveniently ignore Kirilloff never had plus power, wouldn't take a walk to save his life and had no defensive value. He was basically later career Delmon Young. Derek Falvey has the same kind of cult following here. His trades often didn't pan out, his draft picks virtually never produced significant sustainable value for the team, and Falvey consistently squandered precious budget on low ceiling barely MLB caliber players in the interest of having mega-depth, a luxury on mid market teams. He was a bad GM who inherited an incredibly talented core and squandered it. Sure, he didn't have the luxury of a large market payroll, but ownership consistently ran payrolls by 30-50% higher than when Falvey started. Falvey inherited arguably the most talented, young core team in all of MLB in 2017 with just a $100M opening day payroll. Kyle Gibson, Jose Berrios, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, and Miguel Sano were all solid every day players and contributors for several years. Their talent was largely wasted and traded away to prop up Falvey's failed pipelines. Falvey's team missed the playoffs in 2018, 2021, and 2022 before the REAL scapegoat for poor performance (the one year 2024 payroll dip). Not sure how the 2024 payroll dip caused a ripple in time to impact the missed playoff teams in previous seasons? Anyway, The Twins rebounded payroll to $140MM in 2025, and even at it's lowest opening day rate, it was still tied for the top payroll in the AL Central in 2024. Despite that, the Twins missed the playoffs again in 2024 and 2025. Falvey was absolutely setup for success. Even with sub-par ownership, he had all the tools to get it done.

With the Twins being late into the 2025-2026 offseason and having now fired Derek Falvey for failing to meet ownership's new direction, it will take creativity and aggressive moves to put a team with a high floor and a playoff caliber ceiling together. Using an all-in mentality with a tough salary cap, I'm trading away high end Twins talent for multi-year, established quality players, not dumpster diving. The Twins start off with an absolute blockbuster of a trade with the Washington Nationals moving Emmanuel Rodriguez, Brooks Lee, Taj Bradley and Dasan Hill to the Nationals to get a return of (SS) CJ Abrams and (LF) James Wood. That's two 3 WAR caliber players with modest salaries in early arbitration/pre-arb status. The losses to the farm hurt for sure, but if the Twins can't do it with payroll, they've got to do it with talent. Next, the Twins package Trevor Larnach and Ricardo Olivar to Tampa in return for Yandy Diaz. Tampa gets their always coveted salary relief, a passable DH now, and a catcher/outfield prospect in the high minors. Finally, the Twins package Hendry Mendez to sweeten the deal for a team to take on Josh Bell's contract in return for a PTBNL. With a little payroll room now the Twins sign Michael Kopech to a $7MM AAV contract, and bring back familiar face Danny Coloumbe to solidify the top of the bullpen. With plenty of depth left in AAA for filling the starter spots when injuries crop up, I project this team to be worth about 88 wins with a ceiling much higher if a couple rebound seasons happen for players like Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner. Plus, there should be a little juice left in the tank come trade deadline time if the GM needs to pick up some talent. C: Ryan Jeffers ($6.70M) 1B: Kody Clemens ($0.80M) 2B: Luke Keaschall ($0.80M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($2.90M) SS: CJ Abrams ($4.20M) LF: James Wood ($0.80M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Matt Wallner ($0.80M) DH: Yandy Diaz ($9.00M) 4th OF: James Outman ($0.80M) Utility: Austin Martin ($0.80M) Utility: Tristan Gray ($0.80M) Backup C: Victor Caratini ($7.0M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($21.75M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($6.20M) SP3: Bailey Ober ($4.30M) SP4: Simeon Woods Richardson ($0.80M) SP5: Zebby Matthews ($0.80M) RP: Michael Kopech ($7.00M) RP: Taylor Rogers ($2.00M) RP: Danny Columbe ($3.50M) RP: Cole Sands ($1.10M) RP: Justin Topa ($1.00M) RP: Eric Orze ($0.80M) RP: Jackson Kowar ($0.80M) RP: Andrew Morris ($0.80M) POS: Carlos Correa Dead Money ($10.00M) Payroll is 2.09% over $110MM budget

You're in luck. He was a slightly below average RF in 2 of his seasons so far.

Well, while I dislike his results, as a fan I like the fact he has MLB experience since it gives me the opportunity to do some amatuer analysis on him. From a Stuff+ perspective, Kowar's problem is he throws his fastball too much. 60% of the time is way too much for an unimpressive pitch. The velocity is great, but the movement is sub-par, he doesn't get good extension so his velocity plays a lot lower than it is, and there is very little spin on it. He also tends to locate his fastball middle-middle too much. The changeup and slider are very good pitches, but he can't seem to locate the changeup. Not sure if the Twins can pick up on a repeating mechanical issue to get more consistency out of location of the pitch. There is quality to work with, but it needs revision. Getting better extension and improving mechanics for the changeup could help Kowar really be something. Sounds simple, but those are big changes.

Who among the Twins starters routinely faced TTO over the past 2 years (Twins)? Innings per game. SWR and Matthews are in the same boat as Festa over the past couple of years, and SWR especially had much more opportunity. I do think Matthews pitched to more hitters than Festa despite the lower innings per start count, but Matthews also puts a lot more guys on base than Festa. Ryan = 5.67 Lopez = 5.67 Ober = 5.60 Bradley = 5.22 SWR = 4.80 Festa = 4.70 Matthews = 4.68