bean5302

Let me put it a more direct way. Paddack is a terrible pitcher, and not just when he's starting. The 5.35 ERA across all of last year didn't get better out of the 'pen. The guy owns a 5.23 ERA and a 4.70 FIP over the past 3 years combined. The illusion of his 5.0 IP as a reliever performance in 2023 seems to be the sample size you must be considering relevant? Paddack can't strike anybody out, he doesn't generate ground balls, he gets hit hard in general and he's homer prone. He sucks, and it's shocking to me Miami signed him to an MLB contract because he sure as heck wasn't going to get signed by anybody else.

Tom Pohlad has stated there's still payroll capacity. Minnesota's projected payroll is about 50% higher than the lowest team in MLB, but it's likely going to remain soundly in the bottom 1/3rd. Probably 24th-25th.

His 7.82 ERA as a reliever last year was definitely impressive. Probably about as good as Urshela on the mound.

No kidding, so disrespectful to Royce... or is Royce hurt? Regardless, Urshela isn't an MLB caliber player. Not sure what this move is about at all.

Falvey gonna Falvey Zoll gonna Falvey

Here's what I make of the comments. Tom wants to improve attendance and he thinks the team being competitive will do that (as a prior season ticket holder, I will say it will not). The only thing which will make a difference in attendance is leading the division decisively throughout the entire year, IMHO, and the Twins are serious underdogs vs. the Tigers at this point. One of my biggest problems with the Pohlads is they cater to the wrong markets because they arrogantly think they understand the fan base despite having every metric and indicator they do not. Want to put butts in the seats? Good giveaways, and enough of them so everybody has a chance to get one. Focus on fan experience INSIDE the ball park. The surveys the Twins have sent out always focus on the parking/transit, safety around the park, entry into the game. Never on the quality of the experience DURING THE GAME. Focus on increasing the desirability of attending Twins games for people who do have disposable income now or in the near future. Stop concentrating on making 4yr olds happy. Great, glad you feel good about yourself, but 4yr olds have zero dollars today and zero dollars for another 15 years, and by the time 10 years has passed, baseball is considered lame, replaced by cool sports. Basically, make games fun to attend for the people paying to go there... That said, the disconnect between the Tom's comments about the team being competitive vs. the same 'ol, same 'ol dumpster dive AAAA depth mountain team Falvey always builds are more in context by the firing of Falvey.

Yeah, I do not get Larnach + Bell on the roster at all. Maybe Zoll will shake things up, but I would have expected that to have already happened. Zoll = Falvey, Jr. I expect.

Nobody likes them. I don't understand how Joe Pohlad could not have foreseen the problem. Minnesota is the "North Star State" but the North Star is the primary source of night time navigation for... mariners. That's what the cap looks like to me. Mariners.

Brooks Lee has always been viewed a non-viable shortstop at the MLB level. It was widely expected Lee would have to move to 2B due to lack of arm strength and poor range even at the time of draft. From the day he was drafted until now, the Twins are probably the only organization in baseball who would entertain playing him at SS. As far as his speed/range, when Lee came up, he was the same speed as he is now, and he's always had a stout lower body. I don't know as Lee is beefing up or staying the same, TBH. Those funky stats you're seeing are probably going to continue to be funky because you're getting into super small sample sizes. Brooks Lee's problem isn't "velocity" though it certainly isn't helping him he's among the softest hitters in baseball. He also has no plate discipline. Personally, I think fans of this site are just enamored with the name "Brooks Lee" and all the over-hyped excitement which came with his drafting. There's a chance he can address the multiple factors he needs to change in order to become a league average hitter at MLB, but projecting more than that feels unrealistic to me. In regard to Culpepper, yes, his defense is drastically better than expected. It was expected he was a non-viable SS, and now it looks like he might be good enough to stick there. Culpepper's RF/9 was 3.91 last year with a .962 fielding percentage in AA. Viable MLB shorstops are usually 4.00+ with a .970+ fielding percentage. Culpepper was not a good shortstop, but he might be "passable." Culpepper's bat is also suspect.

I think the Larnach comp is pretty fair. What Larnach is vs. what he was when he first came up. Both slow, left-handed "corner outfielders" with mediocre pop. That said, Larnach has significantly more raw power. If Larnach could take another approach change and stop hitting so many grounders, he could be a pretty impressive bat. Gotta get past that inability to hit lefties somehow, though.

He's not DaShawn Keirsey. Keirsey had zero years in the minors where he was impressive at the plate. He had a hot start at AAA in 2024 and one of the admins of TD seemed to really like Keirsey personally so Keirsey got pushed as a viable MLB player around here. Keirsey's bat had never been impressive in his MiLB career. His best performance was at age 26 in AA. He was a non-prospect. Roden doesn't have the speed to cover CF, but he's produced at the plate at a high level throughout the minors. Roden doesn't show big power, but favors a line drive approach which generates some XBH and pretty medicore power output. Unfortunately, his higher contact approach has been totally outmatched at the MLB level. At the MLB level, his walks evaporated and converted into strikeouts. He's going to need 300 or so consistent plate appearances to see what the Twins actually have. Personally, I'm not bullish on him.

The Twins are saying they will be competitive, and they're still hanging on to Ryan, Lopez, Buxton and Jeffers. So acquiring a shortstop would be sound strategy. Culpepper probably has a 25% chance to be a solid starter. A 10% chance of being as good or better than Abrams. Houston's chances are lower. He hit like Keoni Cavaco last year.

It’s not hard to find a 4.50+ ERA reliever on waivers. Being a good team’s cast off doesn’t move the needle for me wanting them. I think it’s a lot more likely people got focused purely on Banda’s ERA and not the chances that ERA is going to persist. The Dodgers, of course, recognize the low likelihood Banda will be a quality reliever which is why they DFA’d him. 8.45 K/9, 4.71 BB/9, a .227 BABIP, and a strand rate of 83% taken together just scream regression. Banda is not “something” or a “real live bullpen arm” he’s a magician who has likely run out of smoke and mirrors.

Pablo Lopez is like an $8MM per season bargain, but hardly extreme. He's worth less than Sonny Gray's value when the Twins acquired Gray. Maybe 20% of the league would consider taking on another $22MM in salary at this point in the offseason. Joe Ryan has one of the higher trade values for pitchers who are speculated as "available" and he's one of the better bargains on an expected production vs. annual salary for the upcoming season. He's not remotely close to the biggest bargain in SP right now. Skenes makes $800k right now and he's twice as good as Ryan in terms of value produced. Hunter Brown is better and cheaper with more team control, Bryan Woo is cheaper with more control, etc. In terms of raw value, even a guy like Gavin Crochet is worth more than Joe Ryan in trade value despite Crochet making $28MM per year because of the added team control, and Crochet at $28MM is twice as good of a deal than Lopez at $22MM.

Matthews has the stuff to be a #2, maybe even an ace, just not a Cy Young candidate right now. From Stuff+ This is Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray and Zebby Matthews. Which pitcher do you think has the best stuff? Matthews is the top line. Lopez is #2 Ryan is #3 Gray's 2023 is #4