Jump to content
Our first free agents ranking has launched, click here to see the top 40+ names in free agency! ×
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

bean5302

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    7,569

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    36

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Tracker: Picks & Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    It'll be interesting to see what happens given the double-surgery. I think Festa is done, but I don't see the harm in keeping him on the roster to get a look at him in the Spring Training. The Twins give away roster spots to bottom feeders every year under the Falvinzoll mantra. Who knows?
  2. bean5302
    He's on the 60 day IL so he's not really causing any issues, and he's certainly a better investment than Tristan Gray, Alex Jackson or Kyler Fedko.
  3. bean5302
    Yep. Young could be released today and I'd have no complaints. He's a total non-prospect. If he was striking out 35% of the time, it'd be dicey enough. Even worse is Young knows the zone well enough, he's just completely overwhelmed by A-ball pitchers. He knows a strike is coming, but can't hit it.
  4. bean5302
    It's cute you think all front offices perform well when compared to their peers. Welcome to my ignore list.
  5. bean5302
    Agreed. I consider Festa's career likely over.
  6. bean5302
    Alonso got $150MM. I gave a range well under that, but even so, I don't think teams care much about health from 4+ years ago. If Lewis qualifies at 504 PA this year, plays 140+ games the next two years, it won't block him from getting a 4-5 year deal or $20MM+ per year from my perspective. Of course, neither one of us knows how Royce feels about the organization at all. That'll make a pretty big impact on how excited he is to stick around long term.
  7. bean5302
    I don't really care much. Being upset at the tiebreakers for a sub-.500 team making the playoffs when the team didn't earn it anyway seems like a waste of time.
  8. bean5302
    I don't have any issues with Bauer, but he certainly hasn't looked great in the Mexican League recently and he sucked last year in Japan. Bauer made things pretty interesting to start the year in Indy Ball, but his fastball is frequently down in that 92mph range early in games. Against better (still not MLB caliber) players in Mexico, Bauer's been much less successful. He's probably the best starter on the team, but certainly not amongst the best starters in the league there. You'd have to look at a few things. One, is he good enough to be effective at the MLB level? That's pretty questionable. Two, is he good enough to push a different Twins starter out of the rotation? That seems far-fetched. Three, is he good enough to be a playoff rotation starter at the MLB level? Pie in the sky. MLB baseballs are different than Japanese, Indy League or Mexican league balls so Bauer would need to sign, show up to the team, adapt to different pitch movement for the baseballs and prove he's got enough in the tank before 9/1 to get called up. Putting aside his performance risk on a minor league contract (basically zero). Bauer is basically in the Kaepernick zone. There is a legitimate case by the league to argue Bauer's just not good enough, and there's a legitimate case that since Bauer is publicly willing to sign a no-risk MiLB contract and there's some track record to suggest he might be good enough that there's no good reason no team is taking a chance. Bauer's team mates have largely supported his return after he was exonerated again and again. I'm surprised the MLBPA hasn't gotten involved too much in this, but that probably speaks volumes in regard to the evidence they've seen.
  9. bean5302
    Ryan is expected to be weeks away. Just threw a small bullpen session recently.
  10. bean5302
    Is Royce Lewis on the Twins? Is Royce Lewis a 1B / viewed as a 1B? How does Royce Lewis view himself? How does Royce Lewis perform down the stretch? If he's healthy the rest of the season, he'll be close to 500 PA. If he hits like he has for the past 20 games, his season will end at a wRC+ 120ish with probably 2.5ish WAR. His stats have not "sucked." It's not like Lewis has ever posted a season below 1.0 WAR actual, despite missing a ton of time. A 150G season rate of 2023 = wRC+ 152, 5.9 fWAR 2024 = wRC+ 106, 2.0 fWAR 2025 = wRC+ 85, 1.4 fWAR 2026 = wRC+ 120ish, 3.0 fWAR (assuming he continues to hit like recently wRC+ 146 over last 20) Now, what Lewis is worth 2 years from now on the open market, I have no idea. If he keeps raking and stays healthy, he'll be entering free agency at age 30 with 3 consecutive healthy enough seasons. I'm guessing he'd probably get 4-5 years and $100MM+. In 2029, what he did 4+ years ago won't factor in the contract to limit it to less than that. I think he'd probably be in line for Alonso money. vs. What happens if Royce reverts back to a league average hitter who is hurt all the time? Obviously, he'd be taking a 1yr $6MM deal or something like that. It all depends on how Lewis views his future, where he plays, etc. In my opinion, his arbitration values will likely hinge greatly on his performance next year. Continuing his current production rate, I'd say $5MM, $15MM for $20MM over the next two years, but then again, you and I disagree on how the final year of arbitration will be viewed moving forward. You seem to believe the fair market value escalator will only apply to super elite mold breakers (like Skubal) while I think it will be applied universally. Provided Lewis believes in himself, over that 4 year period, he could expect to make $60-80MM vs. your $48MM offer. The kicker is Lewis would be entering free agency well over the hill at age 32 vs. at the tipping point of age 30. Giving up age 30-31 seasons would be pretty catastrophic to his free agency value IMHO.
  11. bean5302
    Nice to see Houston starting to come out of what was a pretty rough stretch. Looks like he's changing his approach to find out where the sweet spot of power vs. strike outs is for himself.
  12. bean5302
    It'll be interesting to see who the new GM and front office will prioritize after Pohlad fires Zoll.
  13. bean5302
    Lewis is a Boras client, and it's clear he's a believer in himself. I can't see him taking a discount now that he's been healthy.
  14. bean5302
    Since nobody who is or has been on the 40 man roster can be traded, the only trades worth potentially making are for swapping prospects. Prospects who are not and have not been on the 40 man this year. Meaning guys like Emma cannot be traded for MLB ready pitching, for example. That said, teams who would potentially trade MLB ready pitchers who are not on the 40 man are the same teams who wouldn't trade for a prospect. So basically, trades are out. DFA's of players who haven't established themselves as quality players? We don't have any of those who are regularly receiving playing time so it doesn't help.
  15. bean5302
    Zoll failed to address the major roster construction problem at the deadline which is consistent with the lack of awareness of this front office's history. Now, Jenkins' breakout is starting to extend too far to ignore. A couple weeks ago, it was a random couple of good games. As the games go by and Jenkins just keeps raking, the confirmation of him breaking out vs. having a little hot streak is being established. There are 26 (soon 28) roster spots, but only 9 spots in the lineup. Roden is easy to option to make room for Jenkins, but Roden doesn't play a lot. I think it makes the most sense to replace Keaschall (as probably the absolute worst defensive player in MLB) with Jenkins in the outfield, but there's no room at DH because the Twins have Bell there, and Larnach should be a DH. I don't think Keaschall is a huge downgrade over Larnach in LF. I guess move Keaschall to LF where his speed can play and he doesn't have to hold runners from advancing as often? Larnach gets starts at DH vs. righties and Bell against lefties.
  16. bean5302
    You're canceled again, Jack Morris!!!!
  17. bean5302
    Yeahhhh!!! Whomever this "clipped" guy is, he needs to go! I'm assuming you meant Culpepper somehow. But yeah, old school Twins came up perfect defensively, like Greg Gagne. Gagne's first 10 was at SS were like he was a sure fire Gold Glover. Except for the errors and bad play. Gagne had a -80 runs (literally) full season projection after his first season. Yeah. That's -8.0 WAR defensively.
  18. bean5302
    Good article. I've liked what I've seen from Kaelen Culpepper so far in terms of poise. He doesn't look overwhelmed, and he's had good production. With so few plate appearances, the metrics are bound to shift a lot still, but the bat speed is nice to see.
  19. bean5302
    apparently you and I learned different ways of counting as toddlers LOL
  20. bean5302
    Tinney needs work on his exchanges when attempting to throw out base runners from my understanding. That said, stolen bases aren't always the catcher's fault. Depending on the pitcher's methodology of holding runners or the pitcher's delivery or the type of pitch (a 75mph curve in the dirt vs. a 95mph high fastball). I've looked at a lot of their individual at bats. Lots of bad ump calls, and not a lot of pitches in the zone to hit. It's honestly tough to take a lot away from things at this point.
  21. bean5302
    Seems like people don't understand what Zoll said. Jenkins wasn't forcing the issue by producing or looking good enough to replace one of the existing starters, but he's trending the right way. I agree. Jenkins was barely an above average MiLB hitter in AAA by actual production, and well below average in terms of how balls looked coming off the bat until about 2 weeks ago (12 games ago). He was a no-power slap singles ground ball and pop up machine until something seems to have clicked just recently. It's nice he had a great game against terrible MiLB pitching. Last 12 games = .380/.436/.640 OPS 1.076, 9.1% BB, 18.2% K, wRC+ 174 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- prev. 12 games = .244/.358/.356 OPS .714, 15.1% BB, 13.2% K, wRC+ 90 BABIP .289 prev. 20 games = .263/.356/.434 OPS .791, 12.6% BB, 14.9% K, wRC+ 104 BABIP .351 Jenkins was pedestrian in performance and assisted with a higher than expected BABIP. Jenkins doesn't need to replace Martin and ride the bench 75% of the time. He needs to replace Keaschall, Buxton or Larnach.
  22. bean5302
    Development gets my vote. The Twins of Falvey era feel a LOT like the Twins of Ryan era. It feels like the organizational philosophy is about conversion to a method vs. highlighting what players are actually good at.
  23. bean5302
    wOBA is weighted on base average. It's kind of if you could reverse OPS into just OBP. I personally don't like the format because I think people understand what a good OPS is a lot more clearly than OBP. When you see an "x" in front of something it's going to be "expected." xwOBA is supposed to predict what should have happened, adjusted for the quality of contact. It's insanely complicated. i.e. if a player hit every single fair ball off their bat as a 120mph rocket line drive, they'd have an extremely high xwOBA regardless of if every single ball went directly to and infielder and was caught just by pure luck. O-swing is when a player swings at a pitch which is not in the strike zone. whiff rate is when a player swings and catches nothing but air, also called swinging strike rate. I'll try to be better at including that info in my posts.
  24. bean5302
    this is obviously click-bait garbage. As if there isn't enough BS on the internet.
  25. bean5302
    Feels like this is almost intentionally pessimistic. Fragoza's O-swing rate was 30.4% in Ft. Myers. Good for 17th of 48 qualified hitters in the Florida League which is 35th percentile, and not far off from a ton of other hitters in the 26-27% range. He wasn't bottom 20th percentile. Also, despite being more aggressive at the plate, Fragoza was better with a 40th percentile whiff rate. Meaning, relative to his peers, he makes better contact. Btw, there a ton of hitters at that level who simply don't swing. Any O-swing rate below 20% starts to to diverge into 2 types. Ultra elite plate discipline guys at the very top of the prospect charts and passive hitters who rely exclusively on meatballs. The overly-passive hitter is more common and far less likely to succeed at the MLB level than somebody with an O-swing of 30% IMHO. Fragoza is an international signing. If you've spent much time following those hitters, they tend to be aggressive at the plate, and Fragoza is doing a lot of damage at the plate with an outstanding .322/.398/.607 slash line which is certainly not going to encourage him to change his approach. Fragoza also swiped 19 bases in 21 attempts showing he at least has some base running savvy and probably some decent speed. He spent equal parts at 1B, 3B, RF, with less time in CF and LF. That is outright false. Many, many elite players in MLB had a hiccup year. The 2nd hiccup year is uncommon, though. Acuna sucked in AAA at age 20. Aaron Judge struggled to be average at AAA at age 23. Francisco Lindor had a hiccup at A ball when he was 18 and struggled again at age 20 in AAA. Mookie Betts only held his own in Low A back at age 19. Pete Crow Armstrong was only league average in AAA at age 21. Bobby Witt, Jr. sucked in Rookie Ball at age 19. Every single one of those players I picked had a league average or worse season at some level in the Minors. They're all MVPs or potential MVPs. Yordan Alvarez was league average at High-A for age 20. Dillon Dingler sucked at AA at age 22 and flopped again at age 24 in AAA. Otto Lopez was league average at age 20 in A ball. Kevin McGonigle was league average in A ball at age 20. That's the top 6 position players in WAR in MLB this year and a smattering of established super stars.
×
×
  • Create New...