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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I was thinking he finally figured it out as recent as yesterday. I forgot to look at his splits. Larnach is being utterly shielded against lefties. He's exactly who he was a couple years ago, a platoon DH. As a platoon DH, his value maxes out in the 1.5 WAR range. He's over that atm with a lot of left field positional value (where he's... playable) and some luck floating him. Still a valuable player to somebody, but his 400 PA ceiling limits how much he can really do for us.
  2. bean5302
    I think it took Larnach a long time to make the adjustments he needed to hit breaking balls. I mean, he was a guaranteed out vs. changeups at one point. When he made the adjustments, he lost his elite fastball hitting, but it appears he's finally found the combo this year. Larnach is just hitting everything now. That said, Larnach was billed a plus hit tool guy. Tinney's swing is considered a tough one to cope with breaking balls. Brent Rooker is probably a better comp for Tinney at the plate. Right handed hitter with lots of power, willing to take walks, but with quite a bit swing and miss. Rooker adapted his swing in his final college year and it did improve his ability to get to breaking pitches. He also had a significant hiccup in AA. Speaking of Rooker, done for the year after he couldn't play effectively through a knee tear after starting the season with an oblique injury.
  3. bean5302
    If Tinney can't adjust to breaking stuff, he'll definitely stall by AA. Tough to say how well he'll do.
  4. bean5302
    I haven't written Tait off. I just think there's good reason to move him way down the prospect list. I don't normally care much about age, but he was in Cedar Rapids at age 18 after more than holding his own in Fort Myers at age 17. That is significant. There's reason to believe he needs to learn a harsh lesson about the limits of his talents and how good the guys are he's going up against, learn to take what he's given in terms of pitches and exercise patience. If he's just over aggressive, he can easily correct. April had a strong start. May was terrible. June showed a much improved K rate, but it came with almost no walks while July has looked like May again, only worse. The way his results have been up and down suggest he's trying to adapt, but he may not have the patience to stick through the adaptation struggles. Perhaps the biggest issue for him at Cedar Rapids is Tinney and Lackey. Both Lackey and Tinney are likely able to play in High-A this year. There's no space for all 3, and AA is probably a stretch for any of them. One of them needs to be in Fort Myers.
  5. bean5302
    Oh, is that what you took from my comment? The K rate alone? Tait's performance is nearly universally bad. He's overmatched. Quentin Young? I call him a non-prospect, close the book, he's done. Release him tomorrow if you like. he's Keoni Cavaco with more power. A complete flop.
  6. bean5302
    50% pop ups, 16% whiff, 30% K rate. wRC+ 73. He's over-matched in terms of results.
  7. bean5302
    Tait drops out of the top 10 for sure for me. He's no where near Tinney IMHO. Khadim Diaw isn't really a catcher, and Jimenez is a non-prospect. Age doesn't matter after a couple years in a system. Prospects get to the big show (if they make it) in the following time frames. Int'l/High school signings make it to the big show in 2-3 years at the top end, and 4-5 years at the back end. College signings make it to the big show in 1-2 years at the top end, and 3-4 years at the back end. There were high expectations for Tait coming into this season on he heels of a .251/.322/.436 wRC+ 107 with a 9.0% BB and 19.3% K rate at 18 years old, especially after the dramatic improvement in K rate vs. the year prior at the same level as only a 17 year old. Unfortunately, Tait wasn't ready for Cedar Rapids. His line dropped to .216/.280/.420 wRC+ 73 line with a 7.4% BB rate and a 25.4% K rate. The power is real, but he's going nowhere if he can't make a major change to his plate approach. Tait's contact is abysmal with a near 50% pop-up rate on fly balls and he's fanning 16% of the time vs. low minors pitching. He's also not catching the more savvy base runners at High-A which is a disappointing. Tait is very inexperienced at this level, and he's facing much better talent than in Ft Myers. There are plenty of examples of younger players who have good pitch recognition, but need to learn to take what they're given at the plate rather than thinking they're going to be successful forcing results against ever more talented opponents. Here's hoping Tait is just hyper aggressive, and not incapable of pitch identification.
  8. bean5302
    1st Ballot HoF Bust 17 fWAR career with a couple All Star caliber seasons Lackey Probable HoF'er 16 fWAR career with a couple All Star caliber seasons Pretty solid list
  9. bean5302
    BR has Twins at #4. Top 10 Prospects 1. OF Walker Jenkins (Tier 1) 2. C Vahn Lackey (Tier 1) 3. SS Kaelen Culpepper (Tier 2) 4. OF Emmanuel Rodríguez (Tier 3) 5. RHP Riley Quick (Tier 3) 6. C Eduardo Tait (Tier 4) 7. LHP Kendry Rojas (Tier 4) 8. SS Marek Houston (Tier 4) 9. LHP Dasan Hill 10. OF Hendry Mendez Prospect Spotlight: RHP Riley Quick With a durable 6'6", 255-pound frame and a standout fastball-slider combination, Quick has quickly emerged as the top pitcher in the Twins farm system after going No. 36 overall in the 2025 draft. He has a 3.47 ERA and 74 strikeouts in 49.1 innings between Single-A and High-A, and he is still building toward his ceiling after a college career that was interrupted by Tommy John surgery. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/25454559-updated-mlb-farm-system-rankings-after-2026-mlb-draft
  10. bean5302
    Welcome to my ignore list.
  11. bean5302
    1. Kaelen Culpepper 2. Walker Jenkins 3. Vahn Lackey I think Jenkins and Culpepper are neck and neck. Jenkins lack of home run balls and the fact he's probably a much better fit in right field than center offset his outstanding contact and plate discipline skills. Culpepper brings more home run power to the table and he looks like he can handle a super premium position at short stop, but he chases too much, and doesn't swing enough at pitches in the zone. Still, he's managed excellent contact rates as well. Tough to say if he'll be too passive at the plate looking for a pitch he thinks he can drive. They're both in AAA and either one could get a call up. I think most draft picks have too much hype behind them to begin with both Culpepper and Jenkins being first round picks themselves in the past couple years who've moved through the minors well and are producing at MLB's door. Lackey certainly looks the part of an elite prospect.
  12. bean5302
    Clearly like a better version of Mike Trout, if Mike Trout played SS. Bobby Witt, Jr. better win the MVP this year, it's probably his last chance.
  13. bean5302
    I think it's tough to say based on the potential of losing 2027 and with so many teams close to the wild card this year. Regarding Jeffer's value, his walk and K rates were doing a lot of lifting for his plate value. Not sure how teams will view him. It's likely his power will be back by October when it really counts.
  14. bean5302
    Fedko was totally overmatched by MLB pitching. Was he pressing? Maybe, but there was utterly no signs of an MLB caliber hitter there. I don't understand the investment of fans in Fedko. DaShawn Keirsey, Jr. is a perfect comp. He's currently in the ATL organization at AAA with a .262/.314/.367 wRC+ 80. The International League is utterly devoid of pitching, and the shiny stats down there often don't translate to MLB. Guys who make it at the MLB level rarely struggle for multiple years in the minors like Fedko and Keirsey did. Fedko made it to the big show against all odds and with dubious qualifications. I think that's pretty awesome for him.
  15. bean5302
    3 is enough if you have 2 plus pitches. I think the Twins probably would like to see Quick actually having some command of his current pitches before adding more. At least I'd hope they didn't want another Marco Raya with 6 pitches that can't hit the strike zone. Quick doesn't have control or command. These are a couple typical at plate appearances. Quick will go 3-4 plate appearances in a row rarely hitting the zone, followed by 1-2 where he pounds the zone. It's impossible to tell how good his stuff is. ignore the egregious missed strike call in this one, but when you can't hit the zone, you're not getting the calls.
  16. bean5302
    Culpepper's injury struggles over the past month have thrown a wet blanket over what seemed like an imminent call up. This front office is pretty random, but Ben Ross' production at SS and his time in CF may well have him as the next man up. Ross is a slightly younger Kyler Fedko, but one who can cover SS. Personally, I'd DFA Gray and call up Ross.
  17. bean5302
    The "kid" has always creeped me out. These are grown adults. Like when Falvey called Kody Clemens a "kid" last year. Gross. Aside from that, "he's only 21" rings hollow. He was a high school draft pick and this is his 4th year in the system as a professional baseball player a Major League Baseball development program. Experience and age need to be evaluated together. The kind of experience and polishing of talent which happens in MiLB systems is superior to college programs. Winokur was good enough at Ft. Myers, but he didn't hit at Cedar Rapids across two years. The Twins are technically putting Winokur at SS 1/3 of the time because this front office doesn't care a bit about developing quality defense, he's in a "prove it" phase of his career. If he's able to hold his own at AA, he remains a lower level prospect. If he flops, he falls off the prospect radar.
  18. bean5302
    While the play on words is crafty, you can leave a 26 year old and a 24 year old who barely held their own in Cedar Rapids last year off my radar. Wichita is in a rough state these days. There's not much to be excited about on that team right now.
  19. bean5302
    I think it's a play on words "surging" players for the Wichita Wind Surge.
  20. bean5302
    @DJL44 Good luck in your war against the TD Hype Machine hahah. Houston's only got 79 plate appearance in AA, but it's impossible to ignore he's turned a corner in plate approach and power production. His bat is much better than expected. Even comparing Houston's A+ and AA performances against what he was doing in Ft Myers last year, he's walking way more, he striking out less (at AA compared to A ball), and he's generating more isolated power. The BABIP isn't supported by the batted ball types I'm seeing, and his power production is still below average, but it's nice to see the production. He'll have substantial value even as a league average hitter.
  21. bean5302
    The Red Sox are 1/2 a game back from the Twins in the Wildcard standings right now. Boston is one of 6 teams in the AL with a positive run differential at +26 compared to Minnesota's -16. The Red Sox feel like buyers to me. Story is nearing his return which is huge, and they're getting production from Seigler at 2B. You know who they could use? Trevor Larnach.
  22. bean5302
    Comping Sabato (ACC) to Tinney (SEC) is somewhat fair when it comes to plate approach. Both were viewed as power tool players with questionable ability to hit breaking balls. That's kind of the end of the comp, though. Sabato was universally viewed as DH with major doubts he could stick at 1B. Carson Tinney is a catcher (who actually plays catcher unlike recent drafted "catchers" by Minnesota) The Twins have been reaching in recent years by drafting guys who barely play catcher and pretending they're catching prospects. Catcher is by far the hardest position in baseball to learn. Tinney is viewed as a good framer with a strong arm. His bat went on hiatus in the wood bat summer league, but he managed to throw out 30% of base runners at least. I think it's worth noting that Tinney would have been #1 overall if there weren't questions about him. It's exceedingly rare to have a prospect with no questions. The Bryce Harpers of the world are unicorns. His size is a detriment to sticking behind the plate as the weight is going to put a major strain on his legs, lengthen his pop time, and slow his quickness. At 6'4" and 240lbs, he'd be in a lot better position dropping 20+lbs.
  23. bean5302
    I like Renfrow already having 5 pitches. Maybe I'm old school, but I see too many 1-2 pitch pitchers with a show-me changeup get drafted only to find out that "65 grade" plus pitch doesn't actually work against higher levels of competition, but their "45 grade" offering is MLB worthy. A pitcher who already has weapons in the arsenal to polish and develop under MLB-system coaching has a much higher floor.
  24. bean5302
    The thing which is pretty exciting to me is the speed. Now up to 27.7 ft/sec, right on the cusp of 60 grade. Considering it's dragged down still from early season, Lewis is probably a little quicker than that right now. I think he's still a plate approach work in progress. the expected BA and xwOBA is low because he's still not taking walks and his line drive rate is very poor, but he's made a lot of adjustments in the last couple years. I'm hoping to see him catch up to 4 seam fastballs as the year goes on. If Royce can return to form, it'll be huge for the Twins.
  25. bean5302
    Hey, I love the results. Doesn't change the fact he's not missing bats, and he's not generating pop ups despite being a fly ball pitcher.
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