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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    git gud was my thought pattern. Veterans are often cited as having some sort of veteran capability to teach players how to be better, but I've rarely seen any long term evidence of that. Even truly talented guys like Cruz aren't going to be able to sprinkle magic fairy dust on players to add talent, but the very same arguments are made for any and all veteran signings. It's like the tech definition of an expert shared with me years ago. Apparently "expert" means somebody who lives more than 500 miles away.
  2. bean5302
    You suggested Rooker and Sabato were comparable because somebody else would have treated them the same. Brent Rooker has apparently become the new David Ortiz around these parts. The cautionary tale who is used by fans to justify hanging on to any MiLB roster filler well past prospect age regardless of how little similarity exists. Sabato will be considered 27 for this baseball season.
  3. bean5302
    He's too close to free agency to get a big bargain on him like you're suggesting. The Twins extended Pablo Lopez for 4yrs and $73.5MM in a similar situation (though Lopez had more reason to take the deal because he'd be a free agent again at 31). Your numbers would drive a rift into the relationship and be seen as an absolute insult.
  4. bean5302
    Rogers being older and experienced isn't going to make any difference in my opinion. Justin Topa's 35 this year. Sands and Funderburk have several years of MLB experience. The grizzled veteran is another one of those "intangibles" usually used to justify bad veteran players' existence on the roster. We didn't see big growth when Joey Gallow was here. Nelson Cruz wasn't able to make Miguel Sano GG. Vazquez couldn't teach Ryan Jeffers how to be a good defensive catcher. There is no value in the grizzled veteran IMHO. We have coaches. There are plenty of veteran players who've been there on the team.
  5. bean5302
    The "cheap Pohlads" used the money from not extending Santana to extend Morneau, Nathan, Cuddyer and later Mauer. Santana was clear. He wanted the biggest contract a pitcher had ever received, and he got it. Sure, he deserved it, but the Twins weren't going to match that. The Mets didn't over use Santana, either. Santana averaged similar or fewer inning per start with the Mets than he did with the Twins, and the Mets gave him similar pitch counts to Minnesota. Santana broke down, and whenever Sananta had issues, the Mets shut his season down early to get him treated. If you're talking about the one game they let Santana go 134 pitches in the FIFTH year of his contract for the Mets' first no-hitter in club history, that's really digging.
  6. bean5302
    Comparing a guy who is now 27 and has struggled mightily and consistently in the high minors for 4 consecutive years except for a 165 PA sample size in AA to Brent Rooker isn't reasonable. Rooker destroyed AAA. Sabato couldn't hold his own there last year. Rooker made MLB in his 4th season despite that being in 2020. He had a .931 OPS with 20 HR in 267 PA in AAA at age 26. Sabato had a .741 OPS (wRC+ 86) with 14 HR in 264 PA at age 26. Sabato is a non-prospect and it's pretty ridiculous hearing his name as a potential contributor at this point. I'm pretty surprised the Twins haven't already released him.
  7. bean5302
    Zoll wants Prielipp in the rotation. Falvey has wanted him in the 'pen. What I took away from the discussion is the Twins will likely make a call on his direction after watching him in Spring Training.
  8. bean5302
    If I were to guess... it's because Falvey wants to try and salvage his job and he's convinced ownership there's talent on the roster which can carry the team back into the playoffs and new minority ownership gave the green light to keeping status quo with a year of getting familiar with and evaluating the Twins' operations. If the Twins were to have quickly sold to a new owner, I think it's extremely likely Falvey would have been fired and replaced this offseason. Since the ownership debacle dragged well into the offseason before the Twins pivoted, there may not have been enough time to dedicate to the sale plus a new GM/President search especially given the fake termination of St. Peter. Personally, I think the Twins should have fired Falvey after the trade deadline last year. No reason left to keep him at that point.
  9. bean5302
    Culpepper is #2 right now for me, but a distant #2. For me, grading prospects is about ceiling, floor and projectability. It's very difficult to project low minors players who are not absolutely dominant because there are so many single flaws which can be exposed. I'm not a pro scout so I have to lean heavily on scouting reports which are fraught with personal biases on how a player looks or what big time MLB player a prospect resembles in the mind of the scout. Lots of excitment around Gonzalez. Gabriel Gonzalez has a low ceiling in my opinion. He's not going to be a plus defender in the corners, he doesn't take walks so his OBP is capped, and he isn't going to be a plus power hitter. I love what he did last year to re-establish his status as a prospect worth note after a poor end to 2023 and an unimpressive 2024 season, but wRC+ 120 at AAA is league average at the MLB level (which is right where projection models place him wRC+ 89 to 100). I kind of view Gonzalez as mid-career Eddie Rosario right now. Gonzalez needs to improve his plate discipline dramatically or his speed/defense to raise his ceiling to be considered a top prospect IMHO.
  10. bean5302
    Dick Bremer will remain the voice of the Twins as far as I'm concerned. It's a shame the Twins didn't have more big games and national playoff attention where Bremer could have gotten more recognition.
  11. bean5302
    I mean, that was my conclusion when he was unceremoniously dumped by the Twins out of the blue as a sacrifice to the altar of saving St. Peter's job for another season.
  12. bean5302

    Pressly

    bean5302 replied to mnfireman's topic in Other Baseball

    I feel like I remember Pressly implying or literally stating Wallner was an easy out during the 2023 playoff series. Honestly, I feel like Pressly might be able to help the Twins hitters more than the pitchers.
  13. bean5302
    So there are 7 every day lineup players of 9, right there. Stanton could be forecasted as AAAA due to recent performances and injury history. Nobody else, IMHO. So that's 17 non Quad-A players, and I didn't even review their bench guys. The projection of all the Twins players/prospects reaching their potential is unreasonable to most people from what I've seen.
  14. bean5302
    Kaat pitched a very long time, but I think he was only the best pitcher in the rotation for one year with the Twins, in 1966. He was usually well behind 1 or 2 other pitchers in terms of bWAR, ERA, etc. I don't mind Kaat being in the Twins HoF, but Radke (45.6) pitching only until age 33 still has more career bWAR than Kaat's (45.2) 25yrs to age 44 in the league. Blyleven is on another level. Best pitcher in Twins history, hands down.
  15. bean5302
    Depends on what a person considers AAAA. I think it would be reasonable to call any position player or starter who might be expected to generate under 1.0 WAR (depending on the version you like) in a full season "AAAA" On the expected 26 man it's fair to project 9 of them: Larnach, Lee, Lewis, Martin, Outman, Jackson, Clemens, Wallner, and Wagaman at that level since they've all demonstrated that level (or very close to it) of performance recently. For the starting rotation, Bradley, Abel, Matthews, SWR, and Ober all fall into that category as well. The bullpen is everybody under 0.5 WAR, I'd say. There's not a single member of the bullpen where it would be unreasonble to have a +/- on their 2026 season of "AAAA." So regardless of whether your opinion is it'll be the Twins having to deal with a 26 way tie for American League MVP next year, forecasting the team as 1/2 AAAA seems like a reasonable opinion.
  16. bean5302
    Wong is not going to hit well enough to be in MLB. He had the abberation year in 2024, but his xwOBA was WAY lower than his actual. Not sure what having him adds to the Twins. If we're going to trade Jeffers, I'd prefer Wong isn't part of the package.
  17. bean5302
    Why would Rogers come to Minnesota at $2MM? I mean, it's probably pretty attractive to a guy who might be looking for a path back to closer money. The Twins have got just about nothing in the bullpen. Rogers had a nice rebound on the o-swing rate last year, but he might not be painting things quite as well as he was with a lack of called strikes. His slider velo has dropped way down, and that's hurt his high K rates. Still fairly effective.
  18. bean5302
    I don't care if the Twins players hit right, left or switch. I care whether they produce. It's a "general opposite handed pitcher hitting advantage" rather than a platoon advantage. Platoon advantages are only advantages on a 1 plate appearance at a time basis, and rarely more than 2-3 plate appearances in a game because the opposing manager can just nullify the platoon by switching relievers, but once a "platoon" player is added, you lose the original (better) player for the duration of the game platoon option because there aren't enough bench bats to continue responding to the relief pitcher changes. Time and time again we've seen Baldelli make platoon lineup changes at the beginning or middle of the game which puts Minnesota at a disadvantage late in the game. There are only 26 roster positions and 13 of them get eaten up by pitchers. That leaves 4 potential bench bats to play the platoon game, but there's usually a good reason they're on the bench and not in the lineup. Larnach is the perfect example of the "platoon advantage." He's so bad at hitting LHP, that if he's not platooned, he'll be a league average DH. If he is platooned, he's a 1.0 WAR DH. This is typical of our "utility." Plate appearances have to come from somewhere.
  19. bean5302
    SWR has been surviving on smoke and mirrors according to many advanced metrics. xERA is impressed with him, but SIERA, FIP and xFIP put him as a 4.50ish ERA guy. A 4.50ish ERA guy who can't pitch more than 4-5 innings is something which a playoff caliber team would like to upgrade, if possible. What I've observed is SWR loses velocity quickly, and his stuff isn't good enough to operate in the zone so his pitch counts climb quickly. When SWR has operated in the zone, he's gotten hit hard. Ober "was" a superior option to what SWR has been in terms of expected outcomes and a reliable rotation arm because his stuff was simply better. Whether Ober has declined (expected as he's now age 30+) or if his hip has truly healed and he's back to his previous self will probably determine a lot on who is the better option. Ober throwing 89 is not an MLB caliber pitcher. Ober throwing 91+ is a solid #4.
  20. bean5302
    WHY???? Bats left, fewer options, doesn't play SS. Why not just keep Fitzgerald? Is Falvey just trolling fans at this point?
  21. bean5302
    LOL, the lack of understanding how good Radke was is astonishing around here. He retired at age 33 and was borderline MLB HoF caliber player at that point with 45.6 career bWAR (above HoF Morris' career 43.6). Radke was just behind Blyleven in terms of pitching WAR for the Twins, well ahead of any other Twins pitcher. Radke's career Twins bWAR is 6th in Twins history, just ahead of Tony Oliva. During Radke's peak, he was a top 10 pitcher in baseball, even by fWAR standards. He pitched during the steroid era, including his last two years with torn rotator cuff and pitched his final season with, literally, a broken shoulder while still being above average. The guy is the most disrespected player in franchise history. Re: Viola not getting the kind of recognition he deserves, either.
  22. bean5302
    Blyleven takes the cake without question on this one. Even Johan couldn't match his contributions, and while Johan got the awards, the truth is Blyleven produced more value with Minnesota than even Santana did at his peak.
  23. bean5302
    Let's be honest. Jeffers is not part of the core of this team. He's an average-ish starting MLB catcher with an upside of about 2.5 WAR and a median of about 1.8 WAR and entering his last season of team control. His game power evaporated, but his raw power remains well above average and his improved plate discipline makes him less of a 1 tricky pony for improved projectability. That's fine and good, but unlike guys like Buxton, Lopez and Ryan who all have expected production at 3+ WAR with ceilings in that 4-5 range, Jeffers isn't a critical piece of the puzzle in a vacuum. Caratini should be pretty much a slot in replacement compared to what I would expect from Jefferst this year. I don't understand the signing of Caratini without trading Jeffers. It's bizarre IMHO.
  24. bean5302
    Rule 5 was put out there to help push teams to stop hoarding talent which was MLB-ready. The fact Culpepper is two years away from being Rule 5 eligible sets a reasonable expectation for where his development path should reasonably be. 1-2 years for elite prospects out of college who fly through systems, 3-4 years for high end prospects in general. 2-3 years for elite prospects out of high school who fly through systems with 4-5 years in general for high end prospects. Culpepper was drafted 2 years ago, and he wasn't viewed as an elite prospect at the time. He went 21st overall because there were some things he needed to prove. Taking 3 years to blast through the minors and make opening day 2027 would still be very fast.
  25. bean5302
    Larnach has been a success. Now with over 4 years of service time, he's made a career in MLB. Though he never materialized as a start player or even a guy you'd really want starting, his floor has been established as a "placeholder" type guy who is good enough to carry on the roster for cheap who won't be a black hole. That's still good. Miranda and Julien are part of a concerning trend with this team. Prospects who break out, then never recover after a sophomore slump. The one year wonders happen quite a bit in MLB, but the Twins don't seem to have anybody who doesn't fall off the map after a year. Wallner and Lewis need a bounce back badly. In any case, Culpepper has a long way to go to reach Julien/Miranda levels. Since Culpepper just turned 23 a few days ago, and he's not even rule 5 eligible until after the 2027 season, there's no urgency on him. If he earns it, he earns it, but that's a big step away.
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