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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    He's not having problems throwing strikes. 2.86 BB/9 is fine. 67% strike rate with a 50.1% zone rate in AAA. He's excellent on the strike rate (because of whiffs/fouls on balls) and good enough on the zone rate.
  2. bean5302
    Nobody expected Varland to blossom into this kind of production. He projected like a 3.50 - 4.00 ERA unspectacular reliever with the Twins. Varland, for years, gave up tons of very hard contact. Batters tee'd off with high barrel rates, squared up rates and hard hit rates. Now, he has low exit velocities, and he's baffling hitters by not allowing barrels with huge gains in command and better stuff by dropping bad performing pitches. The explosion of performance puts a lot of heat on the front office and pitching coaches, though. Varland ditched his sinker, brought back a much improved changeup and he's dominated. I've long felt the new front office was "meet the new boss, same as the old boss!" in terms of forcing players to fit into the mold of productivity the front office believes in at the team level. Will Varland be able to keep this up? Yeah. It looks like it (though he won't maintain the sub 1.00 ERA) Also... Brent Headrick. He's been great for the Yankees. I thought Headrick would struggle to provide any value out of the bullpen, but he's looking very solid. Anyway, as good as Varland has become, Rojas is still worth a lot more if he can lock down a rotation spot. If the Twins' front office had done their job and shored up the bullpen like they absolutely needed to, there would be a whole lot less frustration around here.
  3. bean5302
    John Lackey, catcher for 29 teams. C, RP, 1B, 2B, 3B, LF, RF for the Minnesota Twins. Maybe a little SS, CF, bat boy and clubhouse janitor mixed in... for the versatility!
  4. bean5302
    A failed starter is a pitcher who is either pitching so poorly in the rotation they're hurting their team's chances at winning without expectations there's much untapped growth or a pitcher who has reached the point of call-up and they don't appear likely to be able to provide quality service in the rotation so they're moved to the bullpen. Morris certainly wasn't doing a lot to make his case as a starter during his time in AAA. His peripherals and expected metrics looked uninspiring while putting up numbers which often looked a lot like Randy Dobnak. Morris pitching out of the pen has allowed his K rate to come up, but once the scouting reports get out on him, I wonder if that will stick.
  5. bean5302
    Correction, Bell will go hot for a month at random times.
  6. bean5302
    Rojas should be in the rotation.
  7. bean5302
    #1 - 5.0 WAR #2 - 4.0 WAR #3 - 3.0 WAR #4 - 2.0 WAR #5 - 1.5 WAR Elite RP - 1.75 WAR Great RP - 1.25 WAR Relievers are highly volatile. Consistently hitting 2.0 WAR is virtually unheard of, though it has happened for like the very pinnacle of relievers in all of baseball on occasion. The realistic ceiling for Rojas' value out of the pen is equivalent to a #5 starter. For whatever reason, a seemingly strange number of people on this site look at every single starting pitching prospect the Twins have and work diligently on arguments on how to convert them to a bullpen arm which will deliver minimal value.
  8. bean5302
    The now 28 year old Matt Canterino is probably done. His surgery in March of 2025 has a typical 12 month recovery timeline. Nick Paparesta said, at the time, Canterino would likely be a little longer because of how hard he throws and his injury history so when he wasn't ready for Spring Training, that was honestly expected. Now, though, it's July. It was expected Canterino would be ramping up by May or June. He's past expected at this point and no signs of him. Canterino also had some major red flags in his last significant playing time in AA. He was walking 6 hitters per 9 innings. His xFIP there was 4.61 despite the hype around the 13.14 K/9 and the sparkly 1.83 ERA he had.
  9. bean5302
    Gonzalez is a low-ranking prospect at this point. He can't play defense and he's really struggling at the plate. He'd already fallen far down the Twins prospect lists before last year's rebound campaign, but he's simply not making good contact. Good players rarely have multiple year hiccups. Before we get into the "oh, he's only 22!!!!" stuff, he's an 6 year MiLB veteran who had to be added to the 40 man to protect him from the Rule 5, and he's burning options. It's nothing like a 20 year old drafted out of college in year 2 at AAA. Emma can't stay on the field with an approach which doesn't obviously translate to the MLB level, and the Twins agree having burned all 3 options without a single game in the big show. The Twins aren't building around that, though he certainly could have a breakthrough. I think he's either going to be very good or unplayable. Roden has no business in AAA anymore. He should be playing every day at the MLB level, but again, you're talking about a guy who hasn't forced his way into MLB playing time yet at age 26 so betting on him is a little iffy. Wallner is clearly far down the depth chart. He's been raking for months in AAA, but the Twins have apparently seen enough. Jenkins is definitely in the long term plans, though. That's it.
  10. bean5302
    Seems pretty generous given Jenkins' often slow starts, quick promotions after short bursts of raking, and his relatively pedestrian results at AAA. Jenkins is probably better than absolute replacement level as a starting CF right now if he's got as much or more speed than advertised, but do the Twins want to start his clock burning time as a replacement+ player before he gets more experience and is potentially worth the starting job? As a corner OF, he might be able to duplicate a Kepler-like performance with a close to league average bat putting together 2 WAR campaigns with defense.
  11. bean5302
    Luck and SSS does not equal talent.
  12. bean5302
    Duran and Varland do not add 5 wins this year to the Twins to put them into a precarious first place in the division. The Twins have blown 11 saves so far (16th in MLB). The Twins relievers have pitched 317.0 innings, Duran and Varland combined have 70 IP so less than 25% of all innings the Twins relievers have pitched. Meaning other Twins relievers (who are bad) still have to cover 247 innings. Duran and Varland in the bullpen probably makes the Twins viable as a potential back end playoff team auto-scheduled for a quick exit. I guess I don't care if the Twins are a 1 and done playoff team. Been there. Done that for 20 years now.
  13. bean5302
    Why? There is nothing to suggest a now 27year old Austin Martin has some hidden breakthrough coming. After 500 PA in AAA which show him projecting as a pretty league average bat, and 700 PA at the MLB level confirming that. 1200 PA with the same basic outcome. Decent eye, lots of contact, no power, can't play a defense outside corner OF (or maybe 2B which the Twins abandoned).
  14. bean5302
    Again, not my numbers. Fangraphs' numbers.
  15. bean5302
    Glad he's been put into a position to hit where there were a lot of base runners. The point of the stats saying he has a league average bat is to say a good hitter would have 70 RBI instead of 56 right now if they were in Bell's spot in the lineup.
  16. bean5302
    There was a statistical analysis, but data is always growing and teams are continually looking for a market advantage. https://sabr.org/journal/article/the-statistical-mirage-of-clutch-hitting/
  17. bean5302
    Take it up with Fangraphs and fWAR 0-6 A 7-12 B 13-18 C 19-24 D 25-30 F
  18. bean5302
    Last year's 181 plate appearance high note is long ago in the rear view mirror. At this point, his 257 PA in 2024, and 2026 (coincidence) look like who he is. A below league average bat contact hitter who can work a count, but who has no power to punish mistake pitches and limited defensive value as a corner only outfielder. That's fine for MiLB depth, but it's not viable as an MLB player for a playoff caliber team. Not as a utility guy since he can't cover CF. That means he can't fit the utility 4th outfielder role. His bat doesn't play in the corners, 1B or DH. 697 PA is enough.
  19. bean5302
    A clutch hitter could exist. There are always exceptions, but in general, a hitter can't decide when they're going to be good. Furthermore, if a hitter "could" decide to be extra good when it was "clutch" then it would imply they don't try when it's not important. Same kind of clutch argument was used for Jack Morris by his proponents pushing for the HoF who argued Morris gave up runs when he didn't care. (debunked). For pitchers, clutch can exist due to stretch vs. windup technique or for hitters, if they were just really calm and collected at the plate. All business regardless of the outside stresses (Joe Mauer). The higher the stress of the situation, the more it would probably benefit a hitter or pitcher who was more in the zone and less anxious, in theory? For an entire team, historically, clutch hitting isn't a thing. However, Cleveland seems to be bucking that concept. Cleveland puts a lot of balls in play. Low BB rate, low K rate. It's not that they have a good BABIP (2nd worst in MLB from 2022-2026), but they also rarely GIDP. They're a pop-up and fly ball heavy lineup which isn't all that great on paper, but pop ups and FBs don't generate GIDPs and putting lots of balls in play seems to have an advantage? 2022 = 2nd +2.93 2023 = 5th +2.62 2024 = 11th +1.00 2025 = 1st +3.55 2026 = 18th +0.52 Basically, is Cleveland clutch because of a plate approach or is Cleveland clutch because of a passive strategy of the type of player they have on the roster?
  20. bean5302
    Last 3 starts 8.59 ERA, 9.29 xERA, 8.97 FIP, 6.04 xFIP. Not sure I'd called that effective.
  21. bean5302
    Larnach is a good route runner. He's always been slow to react and to accelerate. His slow reactions are what make him so poor in the field. At this point, his sprint speed is fine, but his burst acceleration is limited. Lefty out of the box to 1st base rank of 431 mlb players 10ft 115 15ft 142 20ft 167 25ft 201 30ft 206 35ft 229 40ft 239 45ft 243 The trend is he gets run down after a jump which comes from starting off in the lefty batters box.
  22. bean5302
    No excuses: He was sick? He was drained? He was "regression"
  23. bean5302
    By positions C - A 1B - D 2B - C 3B - C SS - F LF - A (#1 in MLB fWAR) CF - A RF - F DH - C SP - C RP - F
  24. bean5302
    Been watching to too much Provus LOL
  25. bean5302
    I don't know how you decide who is worth building around. Generally, players with good bats who are also good defenders aren't relegated to utility roles. The biggest knock against Clemens is his age and the potential he declines.
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