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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Honestly, I'm not a fan of this happening at all. Kepler represented a totally new market for baseball, and he was a fan favorite at the stadium, even if he wasn't always appreciated here in the forums. This suspension sucks for all of baseball.
  2. bean5302
    At this point, Zebby has the raw stuff to be excellent, but there are some guys who just do not live up to their expected stats. Brandon Pfaadt is the best cautionary tale I can possibly give on this right now. He's all projection. Should be better, but he's not. Arizona doubled, even tripled down on expected metrics when the extended him to a 5yr $45MM contract. The AAV isn't going to break any team's back on its own, but Pfaadt wasn't effective. He had always been ineffective. ERA 5.72, then 4.71 (extension), then 5.25 last year. It wasn't one blow up game, either. Pfaadt delivered my preferred metric I call QS2 (5.0+ IP, 3.99ERA or lower) only 45% of the time. That's passable if he didn't have 8 starts with an ERA over 9 where he basically eliminated any chance of his team winning a game. That's like -5 WAR right there as even a AAA replacement pitcher would go 3-5 over 8 games. The pitch which arguably wrecked his year was the curveball. You could say he had... trouble with the curve. Ha, I'm clever. That was the pitch which absolutely wrecked game after game despite stuff metrics saying it was solid. Matthews delivered a QS2 only 37.5% of the time. That's pretty poor. He was reliably ineffective. The pitch which was likely to wreck a start was a sinker he added, but the standard rough start is owed to... his highly touted as improved fastball. There is another much maligned pitcher in Twins history who had stuff and expected metrics which said he should be better than he was. Ricky Nolasco. I'm not saying the two starters are comparable in terms of how they go about their craft, just that there are enough instances of pitchers who should be better, but aren't that Matthews is no sure bet. Personally, what I've seen watching him is poor command despite good control. Joe Ryan suffered from that earlier in his career as well. Ryan refused to walk guys, instead challenging MLB hitters when he should have accepted he was beat in the at bat. Ryan is an exception to the rule as he's developed and mastered multiple changes to his arsenal. Hopefully, Matthews can stick with his impressive arsenal and just improve his feel for the pitches to allow him to improve the actual results instead of just the expected numbers.
  3. bean5302
    Different PEDs do different things. In Kepler's case, it's not like HGH or recovery PEDs, it was an anabolic steriod designed to build muscle. Anyway, I'd say Kepler's career is officially over.
  4. bean5302
    Never got released, didn't really struggle at the MLB level. 2020 xwOBA .395 (elite) in a tiny 21 PA 2021 xwOBA .341 (All Star caliber) across 213 PA, .933 OPS in AAA Traded by Twins to Padres 2022 7 PA with Padres, .990 OPS in AAA Traded by Padres to Royals 2022 29 PA with Royals, 1.199 OPS in AAA 2022 xwOBA .264 (terrible) in a tiny 36 PA across 2 teams, raked in AAA Royals DFA'd with the intent to sneak him through waivers based on timing of the move, but Oakland claimed him. The rest is history. Rooker has been the same hitter in Oakland as he was in Minnesota in 2021 in terms of expected metrics.
  5. bean5302
    Garlick stuck around through 2023. Rooker posted up +1.7 fWAR over the same period as Garlick had with Minnesota.
  6. bean5302
    Bill Smith is highly underrated through revisionist history where Wilson Ramos turned into a perennial All Star catcher. The return for Johan Santana was Carlos Gomez, who generated 15.3 bWAR through his 2013 team controlled years. Smith botched the following trades, but I often wonder how much Gardy was pushing for the moves. Still nowhere near as bad as Falvey's Rooker fail. Smith's later drafts were rough, but he drafted/signed a ton of talent, pushed the Pohlad's into spending big dollars through extensions of players like no other GM has ever done in Twins history (Mauer, Morneau, Nathan, Cuddyer). He made some shrewd signings too. I don't think Smith was a terrible GM in retrospect, but I also don't necessarily think was a great one, either. In the end, Smith got canned after the first bad year. Meanwhile Ryan and Falvey had leashes for days.
  7. bean5302
    I hate the way people throw Aaron Judge out there as if he's comparable. Utterly nothing like Emma. Judge owned a 23.5% K rate in AAA in his second go-round... and with good power. Even in his first exposure to AAA, Judge only struck out 28.5% of the time. Wallner's AAA K rate is 28.8%. I couldn't find a single instance of an International League player who's been successful with a K rate higher than Emma's in AAA, who currently owns the a bottom 6% of all AAA hitters (#50/836) between 2021-2025 with 200 PA. The list reads of a bunch of fringe AAAA and MiLB depth guys in their mid 20s to early 30s... and then Emma.
  8. bean5302
    Most recent contributors coming to mind... Luis Arraez (Terry Ryan) came out of Venezuela. Jhoan Duran (Arizona) came out of the Dominican Republic. Jorge Alcala (Houston) came out of the Dominican Republic. Falvey's had no success at signing an international player and having them produce at the MLB level yet. At least for the Twins.
  9. bean5302
    Take it up with Falvey. He's got a history of beating down players in arbitration. Maybe he wanted that championship belt again this year.
  10. bean5302
    Oh yeah, loved Kyle Garlick and how the Twins kept him over Rooker. That was a good call. The grand total of 0.4 fWAR Garlick brought to Minnesota over his 3 year tenure is hard to beat!
  11. bean5302
    It's hard to evaluate these players when it comes to their asset value to the Twins. It depends on whether or not the Twins are trying to compete, and what metrics are valued. Keaschall didn't hit in AAA, and he was below average at MLB with Luis Arraez like power (and walk rates) in the second half of his MLB stint. There's plenty to like with his speed and upside, but the way he's being touted almost like a guaranteed stud remind me of Danny Santana's future as a career All Star SS. Lopez's value all comes in the form of a playoff worthy rotation arm and a steady force for a competitive team's rotation. Ryan brings everything Lopez does PLUS trade value if the Twins pivot from trying to compete. Obviously Jenkins and Culpepper are all future value, but there is a chasm between the two when it comes to national recognition and expectations which drives trade value. Jenkins blew the doors off AA, but initially floundered at AA. Hopefully, Culpepper's AAA adjustment is far less severe. I don't think I'd have Culpepper in the top 5. Feels too bullish.
  12. bean5302
    I can't argue with "scoreboard!" so you've definitely got a solid point on real production by bWAR levels. I have a major issue with bWAR these days. I used to like it way more than fWAR until I looked at Jose Berrios for the Jays vs. Aaron Nola in 2024. Berrios = 2.3 bWAR on the back of 192.1 IP, 3.60 ERA, 114 ERA+ Nola = 3.7 bWAR on the back of 199.1 IP, 3.57 ERA, 117 ERA+ The disconnect makes no sense, and I've run into Baseball Reference broken logic before. Even so, you've got a stronger argument than me saying, I don't like bWAR.
  13. bean5302
    Well, I think I'm in a pretty good position with the evidence I presented vs. you just not wanting it to be true, haha.
  14. bean5302
    Emmanuel Rodriguez will need to do something pretty special this year to regain peak value. I think the Twins might be able to get a 4th option year on him based on how much time he's missed with injuries, and that could really help. While I'm not a believer, Emma did make substantial strides in K rate at AAA this year. It's still way too high, but he was able to get the rate down from 37% to 31%. He just doesn't show a lot of game power in AAA, though. An ISO of .166 (average-ish) this year and .130 (pretty light hitting) the year prior. Emma's not a super young prospect anymore, either coming into his age 23 season with 5 years of professional MiLB experience under his belt. We'll see what ST has in store. He's averaged an over 50% K rate in previous invites. That really needs to get down to 30%-ish to show the needed progress.
  15. bean5302
    It's circumstantial, but there are what I consider to be supportive of my position. First is in regard to his conditioning. SWR has demonstrated his endurance is lacking. He gets pulled after 4-5 innings regularly, often with a velocity drop corresponding with about 80 pitches thrown. It's often cited how SWR wore down late in the year in 2024 after 112.1 innings in the big show (125.2 IP on the season including MiLB) with a 2mph drop off for his average FB in his final 5 starts vs his previous 5. Last season, he also showed reduced velocity at the tail end. His 6 starts prior to his demotion to AAA in July averaged 93.7mph on the fastball. Despite the sparkly ERA, his velo was down to 92.8mph over his last 6 starts coming back to the big show to finish the season out. Second is his coachability. The Twins coaches had apparently given up on him in 2023. For 2 years there were comments from the front office and coaches about SWR's inability to repeat his mechanics and adjust. He looked absolutely cooked and he was down to his last chance coming into 2024. SWR had to go to the coaches to seek help and almost overnight, once he finally was willing to listen, his mechanics got better and he picked up 3-4mph of velo going from wash out to legitimate rotation prospect. SWR continued to struggle a bit with repeating his mechanics throughout the 2024 campaign, but that's only natural considering the lack of experience with the effort. Barely adequate. A 4.55 xFIP in 2024, 2 demotions to AAA due to performance problems last year (5/14, 7/28) and a 4.71 xFIP on the 2025 season while averaging just 4.2 IP per start. That's barely adequate in my book. I don't see him as a legit desired rotation option for a playoff caliber team going forward. Do other teams have worse pitchers in their rotation? Sure. Do they WANT those worse pitchers in the rotation? Absolutely not.
  16. bean5302
    SWR, front line starter! I don't think I've ever heard such a bullish take on the pitcher. Certainly not since he reached AAA several years ago. While SWR did have a great finish to the season, it came with an average exit velocity against him of 92mph (terrible), a 9% barrel rate (terrible) and a 40% hard hit rate (from Statcast, terrible) yet with a miserly .152 BABIP against. He did dramatically increase his K rates, and that's a positive, but he's flashed K rates before. With a track record of over 50 starts as a barely adequate #5 with uninspiring peripherals under his belt, it'll take a lot more than 3-4 lucky games chained together to get me on board. Especially given his history of seemingly having conditioning issues and being difficult to coach. Emma is a reach in the top 10 at this point as well.
  17. bean5302
    Oh really? I've let them off the hook have I? What season ticket package did you cancel? I upgraded my season ticket package in 2023 before the payroll cut announcement and paid $10,000 into the Twins in 2024 in terms of a season ticket package and game day expenditures. I canceled for 2025 and haven't picked up for 2026. How about you? I like realism in my evaluations because it lends credibility and it's easier to support. Making radical statements which are easily chipped away or contradicted like "Pohlads one of the worst owners in sports" when there are plenty of examples of ownership groups who are arguably worse just off the top of my head in MLB alone: more miserly (Guardians-Dolan), less successful (Nutting-Pirates), more predatory on fan bases (Loria-Marlins), more hated by fans (Fisher-Athletics) more misguided while being hands on (Moreno/Angels), more dysfunctional leadership wise (Reinsdorf/White Sox). The Pohlads are not good owners and I want them gone in favor of potentially better owners, but I'd rather have them than Nutting, Sherman, Morena or Reinsdorf in MLB any day.
  18. bean5302
    Wallner and Lewis can be expected to have a huge impact on the season. The Twins absolutely need them to excel if the team has any hopes of achieving the seemingly ambitious outlook ownership has for the organization. Wallner's defense needs to rebound as much as anything else. Brooks Lee hasn't demonstrated much with the bat, and I don't think he ever will since there are so many tools he's missing in his production profile. I also don't think it's reasonable to expect him to be a big producer so that puts more pressure on other players. I think Luke Keaschall could be far more key to the Twins this year than Lee. Keaschall has been willing to take walks, and enough pop to keep pitchers honest. Keaschalls speed means he's tough to double up and a threat to reach base safely on an infield grounder. Even considering his lower actual xwOBA, a league average bat at 2B would still be very valuable and it would be really nice to find a stable every day 2B.
  19. bean5302
    6'1" and 190lbs is not remotely wiry. That's final, full adult, MLB starting shortstop size. Miguel Sano was 6'3" and 190lbs when he was signed back in 2009. It's tough to gauge how likely a player is to stick at a premium position until after they get a couple years into their international signing.
  20. bean5302
    Oh yes. Definitely way worse than owners of say the Pirates, etc. The Pohlad family isn't remotely close to the worst. They're not good, either.
  21. bean5302
    Zebby needs to learn much better command of his pitches or he's going to the bullpen. If Matthews is able to demonstrate that mid-upper 3s ERA potential, he'll likely go to #1 this year. Ryan, Lopez and Ober lose 1/2 of their remaining control this year so their value goes with it. Buxton is probably at peak value right now as well. I find Lee's +30 (2nd highest for Twins, I think) to be a modeling snafu. There just isn't much high end asset value with the Twins entire system.
  22. bean5302
    I've felt Jim has moved towards the more conservative Carl Pohlad as Jim has aged. Bill Smith extended Morneau, Mauer, Nathan, and Cuddyer all to sizable contracts. As Target Field approached opening day, and for the first years of Target Field, there was definitely a different vibe about things. Yet, rather than capitalizing on the momentum, the Pohlads pulled back. It was never the same again, and while the family opened up the wallet in recent years, the spending quickly got pulled back again at the worst possible time.
  23. bean5302
    Lee shouldn't be entirely written off, but 700 PA in back to back seasons is getting to be a pretty solid sample size. There's a high degree of likelihood he'll never hit well enough to hold down an starting spot on an MLB team. I've seen enough of Lee already to want the team to be planning to supplant him.
  24. bean5302
    The Twins absolutely need to have a competent defensive shortstop to replace Brooks Lee in the starting lineup. Fixed that for ya.
  25. bean5302
    Honestly, though, I like this signing. On a MiLB contract, Arcia is excellent AAA roster filler, though I wonder if the contract includes an opt-out? Honestly, I think it's best for Arcia if the opt out is mid-year to give him some opportunity to work on his game with consistent playing time, though patience hasn't been his virtue at the plate. Also, this provides me some personal entertainment value wondering what's wrong with Arcia's stats when I continue to mistakenly input "Oswaldo" into the search bars of baseball stat sites. I think the signing makes even more sense if the Twins believe Kaelyn Culpepper is potentially close because there isn't much AAA ready talent for SS in the Twins' system. If Kaelyn doesn't look ready, Orlando is a much better backup option than Kriedler, IMHO.
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