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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    LOL Vallimont? Come on now. Lewis, if you squint and pretend, he could be a deep prospect, but not really. Eduardo Tait is really being tested in Cedar Rapids. Glad to see some production as it could help him if he's pressing, but he's got some work to do to adapt to better pitching. Here's hoping he can learn the plate discipline to make his skills play. LOL Vallimont? Come on now. Lewis, if you squint and pretend, he could be a deep prospect, but not really. Eduardo Tait is really being tested in Cedar Rapids. Glad to see some production as it could help him if he's pressing, but he's got some work to do to adapt to better pitching. Here's hoping he can learn the plate discipline to make his skills play. He's not changing my perspective at all.
  2. bean5302
    1987 Twins had to win only one single series to make the World Series, and the team had Bert Blyleven and Frank Viola who pitched 4 of 5 starts vs. the Tigers. Yeah, 3 days rest between starts for both. That's not happening in 2026. The 1987 World Series has both been the single best thing to happen for Minnesota Twins baseball history, and arguably the most damaging thing for the franchise as fans and owners bought into the idea it's all luck which has fueled decades of conservative mediocrity. There's nothing in common in the playoffs then vs. now. Getting lucky for a single series? That can happen. Getting lucky for 3 or 4 series' in a row? Far less likely. The 2026 team will likely need to win 3 series
  3. bean5302
    Me. IDGAF about Winokur. He's got Luke Keaschall's glove and Ryan Kreidler's bat.
  4. bean5302
    Worse chance for a bad team to beat a good team in a longer format, sir.
  5. bean5302
    The Twins could win the World Series this year after trading Joe Ryan and Byron Buxton for prospects. It's not "impossible."
  6. bean5302
    It's a trap. Believing a mediocre team that makes the playoffs has a legitimate chance to make, let alone win, a World Series is a trap. If the organizational goal is "World Series" then lightly chasing a division title with virtually no hope of advancing is a trap which will undermine the future of the franchise.
  7. bean5302
    Joe Ryan's tradeability took a complete beating with his arm fatigue diagnosis. It's going to scare the heck out of any suitor. It's such an unusual trade deadline scenario. How do owners view 2027? How confident are owners that baseball will be played or a new CBA will include a $150MM+ floor and full rev share? What will Arb 3 look like? Everything staying the same as the current CBA (I think that's kind of the best I can assume), I think Joe Ryan's value is probably $45MM, minus his outstanding salary for 2026 plus his projected Arb 3 salary. He's making $2MM the rest of this year, plus $20MM next year (have to assume that value in Arb3 based on Skubal). Forget about the mutual option. Ryan is not taking $12MM after the Skubal ruling. That'd be absurd. So surplus around $23MM? The rest is market thirst. Figure the +20% surcharge for market thirst equivalent to Berrios' deal and best case scenario, you're looking at a $30MM surplus and a deal similar to prospect in the 30-60ish range or mayyyybe two fringe top 100s. Exclude any team's top org prospect. Joe Ryan WAS worth more than double what he is now at last years deadline.
  8. bean5302
    I know. I think most people agree. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. Twins fan apathy is high.
  9. bean5302
    I think Wallner could bring back an org #6-15 reliever prospect as there's going to be somebody out there willing to bet on Wallner being the next potential Rooker. Bell probably doesn't do more than PTBNL due to the contract.
  10. bean5302
    He's still managing the K's dramatically better than he was in previous years, though I think it's debatable on how much of that is luck since his contact and swing rates remain pretty similar. His first pitch strike rate is way, way down and that's undoubtedly making a world of difference. I think he'll probably settle down below the wRC+ 80 range which is the minimally viable point for planned regular playing time, but much better than the below zero stuff he's put up in the past. That said, it's fast approaching Kaelen Culpepper time and Kreidler isn't going to be a guy who carries the Twins to the playoffs this year or in the future.
  11. bean5302
    Source, please. I saw this made up contract a few days ago with no actual source. It's attributed to Dan Hayes of the Athletic, but there aren't any linked articles and I can't find any article when searching for it. This appears to be more likely a Twins Daily made up rumor being treated as fact and A.I. models seem to be hallucinating.
  12. bean5302
    Wallner is no longer worth anything. The Twins have made it abundantly clear how they view him, and that's AAAA. It's not like other teams haven't noticed that. Other teams have to take the Twins' view of Wallner into account because the Twins are the team who should know him far better than anybody. Wallner is in the exact same boat as Rooker was a few years ago with the Twins. Wallner needs to play for a team who will give him 200+ plate appearances as an every day player, even if he's sucking, to determine if there's any value there as an MLB player. Calling him up doesn't help anything. Where's he going to play on a team full of left handed DH's who are already masquerading as positional players more than they should? If the Twins don't believe Wallner is MLB, they should trade him and get a mid level prospect.
  13. bean5302
    Teams cannot draft their way out of mediocrity. They either have to spend now or rebuild and spend later.
  14. bean5302
    I think this team is exactly where the vast majority of fans expected them to be. There have been ups and downs for the season, but this team is right where I thought it would be. 75-80 wins is almost universally where fans, analysts and models predicted this team. There haven't been any huge surprises, and the things which needed to happen for this team to truly be a contender haven't happened. The bullpen is managing to fail softly as in, it seems like they're not blowing games the Twins are actively winning, just pitching poorly overall. While the much lamented bullpen gets the focus, the Twins' rotation has actually been worse (25th vs. 24 in runs allowed) than the 'pen as of a couple days ago anyway. This is a Derek Falvey team. Relatively high floor, very low ceiling. A bunch of mediocre, might be good enough to play regular guys. No direction. No plan. Wasted resources.
  15. bean5302
    Sands started his latest rehab assignment on 7/7. So he could have been on the rehab assignment until 8/6. Still, he was clearly healthy, and MLB has made an example out of teams who use rehab assignments for roster management in recent seasons.
  16. bean5302
    I think it's fine to keep playing Keaschall every day at 2B so he can play a position his bat might be good enough to stick at. That's not likely going to be corner OF, though. If you're going to look at a SSS, you should at least be looking at the expected stuff. Anybody can get hot (or cold) for a month. Keaschall is holding his own at the plate. His xwOBA has been roughly league average June and July (almost identical June/July) after a terrible April and May.
  17. bean5302
    God forbid people have nice things. Hey, glad you finally got that project car together you've been working on for years! Must be so great to have that accomplishment wrapped up! Don't forget your wife died last week, though.
  18. bean5302
    So what you're saying is every single team in the league already has a solid starting catcher? Catchers are at a premium because the league has so few quality catchers. Jeffers probably gives a team with a strong need at catcher a couple more wins on their schedule. That's a big difference and why another team would potentially overpay to get Jeffers.
  19. bean5302
    Falvey was once again the smartest guy in the world when it came to developing catchers. He drafted non-catchers who played a game or two there once as true "catchers" like there was a market inefficiency to exploit. That was after he decided he was smarter than everybody else in general and the talent level at round 10 was the same as round 2.
  20. bean5302
    Nice start by Prielipp, but once again snakebit badly by the Twins bullpen tagging earned runs onto his stat sheet. Seems to be an automatic at this point. Seeing the runs come from almost everybody in the lineup is nice as well.
  21. bean5302
    Jeffers is an average starting catcher, which is definitely a solid asset, but he's not a cornerstone for a mid market team. Since 2021, of catchers with 1500+ plate appearances, Ryan Jeffers ranks 9th. Distantly behind the tier above him. I will never understand the desperate Twins fan who will do anything and everything to hang on to a name they recognize until every last bit of playable baseball has left their career behind.
  22. bean5302
    I've read very little on Tinney's defensive profile as everybody seems to focus on the potential swing and miss and the 70+ grade raw power forgetting he plays catcher at all. Prospect porch calls Tinney a good framer, and the one thing which is universally mentioned is he has a strong arm. https://prospectporch.com/players/carson-tinney.html When it comes to the pop time, a Texas baseball fan site has it listed at 1.80 sec, and his coach also praised his framing. https://www.burntorangenation.com/texas-longhorns-baseball/100337/carson-tinney-texas-longhorns-catchers Can Tinney improve at receiving? I have no doubt. Does that mean people should assume Tinney is woeful behind the plate like Jeffers was when he was drafted? I don't think I've seen a reason to accept that.
  23. bean5302
    The new playoff format has certainly cracked the door open a bit for mediocre teams to serve as first round fodder for good teams, but the Twins' fate doesn't feel connected to Boston at all to me. Does anybody actually believe the Twins had a true shot if they stayed on an 81-81 pace or worse? Some team is going to win some games. It's rare to see teams in the playoffs under 90 wins historically (except in the embarrassment to baseball AL Central). We should know soon what the Twins are going to do. Are they buyers or sellers or pretenders?
  24. bean5302
    Let me get right on your 100 hour analysis request of yours which you will summarily dismiss for an arbitrary reason if it supports my position.
  25. bean5302
    On to trades that work? There's no goal for the analysis. Trades are useless if there isn't an end goal. Based on Tom Pohlad's comments, the Twins are in it to win the World Series as soon as possible. First trade - It doesn't help the Twins at all. Like... at all, and it shoots the Yankees in the foot, too. Volpe looks like he's on the way out so the Yankees NEED a new SS. We don't need another infielder prospect. Lombard, Jr. vs. Kaelen Culpepper vs. Marek Houston. How much better is Lombard, Jr. than our other two high level SS prospects? I wouldn't rank him a lot higher, and I'm more concerned about a hitter who struggles against MiLB fastballs already than a hitter who "might" struggle against MLB offspeed/breaking stuff. I'd be surprised if Houston wasn't a top 100 prospect at the end of the year at this rate, and potentially top 50 with his defensive skills. Also, teams RARELY trade their very top 1-2 prospects. It just doesn't happen. Beyond that, you never trade a top rotation arm for a mid rotation ceiling starter. It's like this article is trying to find dollar value without purpose or considering the viewpoint of potential trade partners. Second trade - Ryan is arguably (probably) a #4 starter for the Mariners. He does not slide to the front of that rotation. Like, get &^*^ REAL. The homerism needed to make the comment that Ryan slides to the front of that rotation... Jeeez. 2026 fWAR and FIP last 2 years Woo - 2.7, 3.38 Gilbert - 2.6, 3.34 Kirby - 2.5, 3.31 Ryan - 2.5, 3.61 Under normal circumstances, a #4 starter would rarely pitch in the playoffs. I just don't see the value for Seattle on this. Seattle can't hit. They need hitting, not pitching. Third trade - Again, the Dodgers do not need Joe Ryan, but unlike Seattle, the infinite resources of the Evil Empire of the West, I'm sure that organization would like to add him as Ryan would be nice insurance and a solid #3 or #4 arm for them. Blake Snell is close to returning for them and Glasnow appears to be close, too. Ohtani, and Yamamoto are unquestionably better than Ryan with the habitually hobbled up Snell also clearly superior when he's healthy. Sirota is probably a better Center Fielder prospect than Walker Jenkins who is universally viewed as a better corner OF prospect than CF, and Sirota has the All Star plus potential with the power if he can stick in CF. Fangraphs is decidedly down on his fielding instincts while other sources praise him and think he's solid as a long term CF. That said, the number one rule of trading a front line starter is to get back a pitching prospect with just as much or more ceiling than what you're giving up. That said... would you trade Walker Jenkins for 1.5yrs of Joe Ryan if your rotation was already stacked? What else do you think the Twins could legitimately get? Maybe Zazueta or Serwinowski? The Padres are probably sellers not buyers.
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