bean5302

Are you saying April didn't happen and the games in April didn't count? He was bad in June and average in August as well. Josh Bell was also terrible in April in 2024 as he has taken a couple months to catch up to fastballs the last couple years. The trend strongly suggests Bell is cooked. Then again, Carlos Santana in 2024 was also bad in April and looked pretty cooked so maybe Bell could have a big late career year rebound out of the blue? My opinion is Bell is much more likely to be France than Santana, and probably more likely to be Farmer or Margot than Santana as well.

Josh Bell = 0.1 WAR last year and -0.1 WAR the year before. Definition of replacement level.

Lewis essentially missed 3 of 4 years with lower body injuries and the erosion of strength which came out of that is real. People are seriously overlooking the toll that takes on a hitter's power. Power comes from the legs and core, not from beefcake biceps. He'll rebound just fine this year if he committed to building back up. Lewis made sacrifices to stay on the field and play hurt. Correa and his $36MM salary made comments about how the young guys weren't working hard enough while he missed months with a sore foot and young guys were literally playing hurt. On top of that, Correa demonstrated a lack of effort on the field failing to run out an infield grounder which was misplayed. You bet it pissed Lewis off. I'm sure it pissed a LOT of players off. I don't think Lewis is a diva, he's just exuberant, and the kind of guy who could lift the entire sport up. He could learn to reign some comments in a bit (like the comments downplaying Schwarber's value), but he's honestly a breath of fresh air as far as I'm concerned. Lewis avoided arbitration with a salary well below projected multiple years in a row. He's been horribly mishandled by a laughably egotistical front office from not hiring competent coaches for defense, playing musical chairs with positions, breaking commitments, beating down players in arbitration (winning another coveted beat-down your players trophy belt, I'm sure) and having a manager who is trying to re-live his career vicariously through his players.

Typical Falvey move. Spend money to spend money. Make sure to add nothing while spending it, hope for career years out of the blue.

I would rather rebuild than go out there with a $110MM payroll. Why not just keep the payroll at $90MM? It's not like the $20MM makes any material difference to this team. Why you rebuild? Because virtually every single World Series team in the past decade has a rebuild which preceeded the World Series run. Small market, mid market, large market. Doesn't matter. With the exceptions of the ultra-market teams, rebuilds are almost required if you feel like ever sniffing a World Series. While free agent cost per WAR is about $8MM, the overall cost per WAR in baseball is more like $2MM (including free agency). That's why rebuilding is required. You have to start with a very good, cheap, cost controlled core, then add a few free agents on top because they're way too expensive to use exclusively. A replacement level team is projected to be about 45-117. 90 wins through free agency = 90 - 45 = 45 added WAR * 8 = $370MM in payroll. 90 wins through average cost = 90 - 45 = 45 * 2 = $90MM in payroll. The Twins have 2 years of competitive window left. 2026 and 2027. If they don't make the World Series in the next two years with the existing core, they will have burned every bit of trade value they've got on their biggest assets with nothing in return. This team lost 92 games last year with what was arguably the best bullpen in baseball prior to the trade deadline, plus Correa, Bader and Castro. Can we get real about how good this team was, and about the expectations of what the team might be in 2026? This is likely a very bad team. Fangraphs is bizzarely bullish on the Twins by predicting several career years next year. FGDC vs. Steamer Jeffers 2.6 2.3 * Clemens 0.8 0.6 Keaschall 3.2 2.6 * Lee 2.1 1.6 * Lewis 2.6 2.2 Martin 1 0.8 Buxton 3.3 2.9 Wallner 1.8 1.5 Larnach 1 0.8 18.4 15.3 Ryan 3.4 3.4 * Lopez 3.2 3.2 Ober 1.7 1.7 SWR 1.2 1.2 Matthews 1.7 1.7 * Bradley 1.4 1.4 * Abel 0.6 0.6 * 13.2 13.2 *Career year projected Total WAR (bullpen WAR is only like 2 for each) 33 WAR for the main guys for FGDC (78 wins) and 30 WAR (75 wins) for Steamer plus a BUNCH from the bench, I guess. This feels like a 75ish win team as-is. $20MM of payroll gets us, what, 2-3 more wins. So the Twins might be a .500 ballclub at $110MM or a 70 win ball club if they rebuild. It does not matter. At the end of the year, it does not matter. This team is a long shot to make the playoffs. If the team goes to $110MM and wins 75 games this year, then the team wins 75 games for the next 3 years. But, if they go down to 70 wins this year, they might go to the World Series in 2027.

I can't understand people not being excited about this. There's been a recent trend of the comeback of the dual role baseball player. It's exciting, fun and new. A throwback to a far bygone era at the earliest roots of the sport. To me, it's not about Joey Gallo, it's about the prospect of seeing more of these types of athletes and how much fun it is to bring something old, but exciting, back into the sport. Matt Wallner has a cannon arm. What if he's the next Shoehei Ohtani? (he's not), but how cool is this? The answer is it's super cool. Every player who makes this transition or player who is successful in dual role begins to change the sport. I love it.

Nobody other than the Twins would have put Brooks Lee at shortstop as a planned starter, but Lee also doesn't play SS if Correa isn't hurt. That really leaves 2 legitimate options for shortstop duty. Brooks Lee or Royce Lewis. Personally, I would have chosen Lewis 7 days a week and twice on Sunday from a skill standpoint, and to honor their commitment to the player to keep a potential future superstar happy; however, Lewis had his throwing issues AND he had a lot of lower body injury woes. Of course, Lee had his back issues... I mean, it's kind of 6 of 1, half-dozen of the other. Lee has the less error prone glove, but the Twins were enamored with his switch hitting and SSSS performance in AAA as they annoited him as a superstar in the making, but he's actually severely deficient in range, has an unacceptably weak arm, and the chronic back issues. Lewis had poor mechanics on his throws and was a little more error prone than Lee, but had a ton of lower body injuries. Lee can't hit. He needs a drastic approach change to be an MLB starter. Might be an acceptable utility guy at this point.

.748 vs .687 OPS is not remotely close. It's the slugging percentage that blows things out of the water. That's 2 WAR right there.

I'd hire a coach who understands how to coach defense... but that's just me.

If the Nationals trade CJ Adams, they'll be looking for prospects. Not arbitration eligble MLB players. Royce Lewis isn't going to be an interest for Washington if the team is rebuilding. If you want CJ Adams, it's Walker Jenkins you have to give up. Maybe a combo of Connor Prielipp, Luke Keaschall, and David Festa if you were trying to avoid parting with Jenkins.

CJ Abrams trade value +54 Royce Lewis trade value +20 This trade proposal is nonsense.

I'm glad Correa isn't on the roster. The fact it cost $10MM a year to get him off the roster isn't a great look, but we're saving $21.5MM, that's what this article should be about. The fact we don't have a guy stirring things up in the clubhouse by demanding effort from the rest of the players that he isn't putting in while simultaneously not playing well and being paid more than 20 guys on the roster combined wasn't helping the team.

Did Falvey also express disappointment Lewis wasn't asked to play at least 4 positions per game last year? Where's that coveted versatility? I honestly don't want to hear another word out of that talking head (Falvey).

McCusker didn't exactly tear up AAA towards the end of the year, and he was clearly outmatched against MLB pitching in his brief stint in the big show. I expect he'll clear waivers. I could see the Twins bringing him back on a MiLB contract.

I guess having 5 relievers with more than 20 IP each all with an ERA at 2.45 or better doesn't move your needle for "stacked"

Outman doesn't play for the Twins at AAA at all because he has no options. So the Twins can DFA and watch him walk now or they can keep him on the 40 man, watch his performance in Spring Training and either watch him walk or give him some leash. AAA depth charts aren't relevant to that discussion.

Yeah, it's a bummer not every single prospect who rakes in AAA turns out to be a good hitter at the MLB level. Outman seems like he's probably AAAA, and yet, there was another hitter not too long ago this team wrote off before he became a multi-year All Star with Oakland. Outman is worth getting a look in Spring Training and a little leash since the Twins don't have anything of likely higher value for LF.

Triston Casas He's not a starting caliber 1B.

Need 8 guys who can be starters. 6-7 guys who can start 20+ games. (Ryan, Ober, Lopez, SWR, Bradley, Matthews) 1 guy who can cover 5-10 games in a pinch (Morris, MacLeod, Festa, Abel, Rojas, Prielipp) Spring Training will probably tell us a lot. The Twins have just enough guys you'd feel okay about counting on for a starter's workload, but not much more than that.

It's not my rating. BTV had Stewart as a +6 trade value. That's right in line with what I quoted. Back end top 10 org prospect land.

Brock Stewart was worth a good org's top 10 prospect last year. Twins equivalent like Gabriel Gonzalez or Andrew Morris type.

Trade our unproven guys for stuff because we're "deep" on starting pitching? We've got 2 bonefide playoff team caliber starting pitchers on the roster. Lopez and Ryan. Ober +20 trade value SWR +16 trade value, very low ceiling. maybe an adequate #5 Matthews +18 trade value, should be better, but hasn't been Festa +12 not worth much due to health concerns Bradley +26 all projection Abel +10, about to wash out as a projectable starter Prielipp +15 lots of questions here, upside, by a very low floor. Morris +4 won't make it as an MLB starter I'm not sure these pitchers move the needle on a legitimate upgrade, it's just swapping guys who aren't likely big contributors for guys who aren't likely big contributors. Rearranging the deck chairs so to speak. Not sure why there's such an obsession with Casas around here. I see his name popping up frequently for years. If another team is trying to cast him off, why do we want him so desperately?

Kody Clemens owned a xwOBA of .330 last year, which corresponds with a wRC+ in that 110-115 range, mostly. 1B = 1.5-2.0 WAR LF = 2.0-2.5 WAR 2B = 2.5-3.0 WAR I think that's probably his ceiling. Adequate at 1B, solid at LF, plus 2B if his defense is solid at any of those positions. I think the Twins are going to be giving the keys to 2B to Keaschall and the logjam at LF probably means Clemens is a bigger lock for 1B and the dearth of guys we have there. His floor is obviously much lower, depending on how pitchers adjust to his successes, and how Clemens plays defensively. There really isn't enough history on him, and his age makes him harder to project and rely upon.

I'm not as bearish on Outman as others it seems. I don't have high hopes for him or anything, but he did go .289/.378/.592 OPS .970 11.7% BB, 30.3% K last year with the Dodgers AAA club in 333 PA. His sprint speed was 28.5 last year and he's got a cannon arm. In addition, it seems like there was some improvement in expected results (still bad). In any case, hopefully, he'll get a good look in Spring Training and turn things back around. I see his 2024 as more of a rookie Danny Santana kind of campaign where it was all smoke and mirrors, but I don't think Outman is a guaranteed negative WAR guy, either.

Jeffers is probably worth $30MM on a 3yr deal which would replace this season. Pretty similar to Vazquez when the Twins signed him, a little more due to Jeffers being a tick younger and a tick better, but with more risk. I'd imagine Jeffers would jump at that. I wouldn't want to go more than 2 extension years on Jeffers given how close he is to a single step back wiping his value out, and how limited his ceiling is.