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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Wong is not going to hit well enough to be in MLB. He had the abberation year in 2024, but his xwOBA was WAY lower than his actual. Not sure what having him adds to the Twins. If we're going to trade Jeffers, I'd prefer Wong isn't part of the package.
  2. bean5302
    Why would Rogers come to Minnesota at $2MM? I mean, it's probably pretty attractive to a guy who might be looking for a path back to closer money. The Twins have got just about nothing in the bullpen. Rogers had a nice rebound on the o-swing rate last year, but he might not be painting things quite as well as he was with a lack of called strikes. His slider velo has dropped way down, and that's hurt his high K rates. Still fairly effective.
  3. bean5302
    I don't care if the Twins players hit right, left or switch. I care whether they produce. It's a "general opposite handed pitcher hitting advantage" rather than a platoon advantage. Platoon advantages are only advantages on a 1 plate appearance at a time basis, and rarely more than 2-3 plate appearances in a game because the opposing manager can just nullify the platoon by switching relievers, but once a "platoon" player is added, you lose the original (better) player for the duration of the game platoon option because there aren't enough bench bats to continue responding to the relief pitcher changes. Time and time again we've seen Baldelli make platoon lineup changes at the beginning or middle of the game which puts Minnesota at a disadvantage late in the game. There are only 26 roster positions and 13 of them get eaten up by pitchers. That leaves 4 potential bench bats to play the platoon game, but there's usually a good reason they're on the bench and not in the lineup. Larnach is the perfect example of the "platoon advantage." He's so bad at hitting LHP, that if he's not platooned, he'll be a league average DH. If he is platooned, he's a 1.0 WAR DH. This is typical of our "utility." Plate appearances have to come from somewhere.
  4. bean5302
    SWR has been surviving on smoke and mirrors according to many advanced metrics. xERA is impressed with him, but SIERA, FIP and xFIP put him as a 4.50ish ERA guy. A 4.50ish ERA guy who can't pitch more than 4-5 innings is something which a playoff caliber team would like to upgrade, if possible. What I've observed is SWR loses velocity quickly, and his stuff isn't good enough to operate in the zone so his pitch counts climb quickly. When SWR has operated in the zone, he's gotten hit hard. Ober "was" a superior option to what SWR has been in terms of expected outcomes and a reliable rotation arm because his stuff was simply better. Whether Ober has declined (expected as he's now age 30+) or if his hip has truly healed and he's back to his previous self will probably determine a lot on who is the better option. Ober throwing 89 is not an MLB caliber pitcher. Ober throwing 91+ is a solid #4.
  5. bean5302
    WHY???? Bats left, fewer options, doesn't play SS. Why not just keep Fitzgerald? Is Falvey just trolling fans at this point?
  6. bean5302
    LOL, the lack of understanding how good Radke was is astonishing around here. He retired at age 33 and was borderline MLB HoF caliber player at that point with 45.6 career bWAR (above HoF Morris' career 43.6). Radke was just behind Blyleven in terms of pitching WAR for the Twins, well ahead of any other Twins pitcher. Radke's career Twins bWAR is 6th in Twins history, just ahead of Tony Oliva. During Radke's peak, he was a top 10 pitcher in baseball, even by fWAR standards. He pitched during the steroid era, including his last two years with torn rotator cuff and pitched his final season with, literally, a broken shoulder while still being above average. The guy is the most disrespected player in franchise history. Re: Viola not getting the kind of recognition he deserves, either.
  7. bean5302
    Blyleven takes the cake without question on this one. Even Johan couldn't match his contributions, and while Johan got the awards, the truth is Blyleven produced more value with Minnesota than even Santana did at his peak.
  8. bean5302
    Let's be honest. Jeffers is not part of the core of this team. He's an average-ish starting MLB catcher with an upside of about 2.5 WAR and a median of about 1.8 WAR and entering his last season of team control. His game power evaporated, but his raw power remains well above average and his improved plate discipline makes him less of a 1 tricky pony for improved projectability. That's fine and good, but unlike guys like Buxton, Lopez and Ryan who all have expected production at 3+ WAR with ceilings in that 4-5 range, Jeffers isn't a critical piece of the puzzle in a vacuum. Caratini should be pretty much a slot in replacement compared to what I would expect from Jefferst this year. I don't understand the signing of Caratini without trading Jeffers. It's bizarre IMHO.
  9. bean5302
    Rule 5 was put out there to help push teams to stop hoarding talent which was MLB-ready. The fact Culpepper is two years away from being Rule 5 eligible sets a reasonable expectation for where his development path should reasonably be. 1-2 years for elite prospects out of college who fly through systems, 3-4 years for high end prospects in general. 2-3 years for elite prospects out of high school who fly through systems with 4-5 years in general for high end prospects. Culpepper was drafted 2 years ago, and he wasn't viewed as an elite prospect at the time. He went 21st overall because there were some things he needed to prove. Taking 3 years to blast through the minors and make opening day 2027 would still be very fast.
  10. bean5302
    Larnach has been a success. Now with over 4 years of service time, he's made a career in MLB. Though he never materialized as a start player or even a guy you'd really want starting, his floor has been established as a "placeholder" type guy who is good enough to carry on the roster for cheap who won't be a black hole. That's still good. Miranda and Julien are part of a concerning trend with this team. Prospects who break out, then never recover after a sophomore slump. The one year wonders happen quite a bit in MLB, but the Twins don't seem to have anybody who doesn't fall off the map after a year. Wallner and Lewis need a bounce back badly. In any case, Culpepper has a long way to go to reach Julien/Miranda levels. Since Culpepper just turned 23 a few days ago, and he's not even rule 5 eligible until after the 2027 season, there's no urgency on him. If he earns it, he earns it, but that's a big step away.
  11. bean5302
    Miami hasn't been relevant in a long time, either. Indiana is showing Minnesota what a ranked team winning coach should look like. Sure isn't PJ Fleck.
  12. bean5302
    This site is designed to pay its writers and staff and the ads/popups are part of that process. The ads and popups can be difficult to navigate on mobile apps, but if you're logged in as a caretaker, the ads and popups aren't an issue. The topic really belongs in Twins Daily Questions About the Site rather than in baseball forums.
  13. bean5302
    and my comment had a lot more to do with the general perception of Culpepper around the site than this article in specific. Culpepper is presumed to be ready for the challenge and it's on the Twins to promote him fast enough is how I read it. The downvotes on my comment are enought to solidify my point IMHO. Culepper is already annointed as the next guaranteed SS superstar around these parts. He's an exciting prospect who has really turned some heads, but the way he's being projected is way too aggressive. His production at AA was not exceptional, he was not "great" he was "good" with Culpepper being the 59th ranked AA player with 200+ PA in terms of wRC+. Culpepper probably needs another full year of MiLB time to polish his game a bit and prove he's ready for the big show in AAA.
  14. bean5302
    and the leadership has been very short with their leashes. Have a bad 2 weeks to a month? Back to the minors you go! Even if that does please fans, it's not a great strategy, IMHO. I think a lot of this has to do with just how bad Falvey's roster construction has been. When the Twins have 5-6 poor performing hitters in the lineup and they're losing games, the pressure is on to perform or scapegoat.
  15. bean5302
    Unless Dominguez has a bad start to the year or gets hurt, in which case they may not be able to get out from under the contract so easy. Both are high risks with a reliever like Dominguez.
  16. bean5302
    I get being angry, but you're comparing 3 completely and entirely different ownership types. The Pohlads signed off on a 6yr $200MM contract for Correa. They signed off on 10yrs and $285MM for Correa before Carlos initially signed with the Giants before that. The worst thing about the Pohlads is keeping Falvey employed.
  17. bean5302
    High end prospects are always substantially younger than their roster-filling MiLB non-prospect competition. Players who have the talent don't typically stay long at those levels. It's not so much Hill's polish vs. other player polish, it's the fact Hill went from high school to competing against talents who are better than the best NCAA teams in the country. It's a huge leap and Hill's stuff still played.
  18. bean5302
    Three Twins prospects last year in AA. Two forced their way into AAA and struggled immediately. The third ended the year in AA. Tanner Schobel Walker Jenkins Kaelyn Culpepper If Culpepper is the savior and next guaranteed big ticket, he should really be hitting more like Walker Jenkins in AA, and less like being indistinguishable from Tanner Schobel. Culepper had a really great season and far exceeded expectations from a lot of prospect scouts, but this site is way too bullish on him being ready right now or likely before 2027 IMHO.
  19. bean5302
    I know what you're saying. Even I'm not sure at this point, lol. MLBTR is a very good source!
  20. bean5302
    Hill has a very high ceiling right now, but we probably won't really know a ton about him until he gets to AA. The combination of super high K and high BB rates can either mean Hill's stuff is truly outstanding or he's just feasting on inexperienced and unpolished hitters willing to chase outside the zone. He'll be potentially an exciting prospect to follow this season!
  21. bean5302
    I was pretty sure the 2022 CBA changed a rule regarding that. If Jackson went to arbitration, it wouldn't be guaranteed. If he settled to avoid arbitration, it IS guaranteed. At least from my understanding.
  22. bean5302
    This is why I like BTV. Ober's value is higher than SWR despite having a lot less control and a higher salary because Ober projects as a much better pitcher. BTV has been a very accurate site when it comes to assessing how teams might match established players and well known prospects up in terms of value. If you're adding Lee, Wallner or Lewis, they're the headliners, not Ober/SWR. The Cubs would jump at a Royce Lewis & SWR or Ober trade.
  23. bean5302
    Castro has the tools to excel at 3B. If the Rockies choose to deploy him there consistently, I believe Castro will become an asset at the position. It's a nice contract given how last year ended up.
  24. bean5302
    0% chance. There's no incentive for him to accept the assignment. Since the contract was signed to avoid arbitration, the contract is guaranteed. If he refuses the assignment, any new team can pick him up and Jackson is still guaranteed at least as much as the Twins contract. This means any other team can sign Jackson for MLB minimum, but the the Twins will have to pay the balance and Jackson goes to the big show.
  25. bean5302
    Agreed. This very much feels like a Jeffers trade is coming now that Realmuto is off the market.
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