bean5302

The fact Falvey wasn't able to quell concerns about ownership is a problem. Managers shouldn't be reporting to owners.

Cardenas was good to great for the 3 years he played for the Twins, and he had 2 other years in his 16 year career where he was good. Other than those sporadic seasons, he wasn't really starting caliber.

Using things like FIP or xFIP to predict a pitcher's future performance without history supporting the correlation is a bit dangerous. Not all pitchers perform up to or down to the advanced metrics. Brandon Pfaadt is what appears to be becoming a messy example. Matthews' barrel rate is way too high and he struggles with hard contact like Varland struggled as a starter. I'm also concerned with Matthew's ability to stay healthy after adding so much velocity. Just have to see how he evolves, I think. There's certainly upside, but there's definitely work to be done as well.

Spotrac says 2yrs $14MM, but I'm not sure a team will go 2 years on him right now. The bigger question to me is... why? Hoskins has a ceiling of what, like 1.5 WAR at this point? Why not just give Larnach a glove for 1yr and $5MM?

Hunter declining to continue the discussion is a huge red flag against Falvey. No ifs ands or buts. Hunter interviewed with the Angels and he's clearly interested in managing, even for a team in a perpetual mess situation like the Angels. Hunter's just not interested in working for Falvey. The only way you turn down an opportunity even before you can get an offer is when the hiring manager presents a a basket-load of "absolute nope" during the initial discussions.

I think there's an issue with the front office and management at play here. Lewis has clearly been unhappy for a while. If you don't believe your employer has your back and best interests at heart, wouldn't you be resistent to their input? Buy-in is critical, and nobody gets buy-in from their employees without making it clear how the adjustments are going to benefit the employee. Lewis' comments have suggested to me he doesn't trust the team, and he doesn't believe they're putting him in a spot to be successful. It reads like he's turtling up to protect his own future. In regard to who he is, I think a lot of what Royce will be able to do depends on whether or not he's finally able to put those ACLs and leg injuries behind him. Where he's not playing hurt or scared of aggravating injuries at the plate or on the base paths.

Rooker only got 200 PA with the Twins, and 85% of pitcher innings are against RHP. The only season Rooker got a significant look with Minnesota was 2021. vs. RHP - .684 OPS vs. LHP - .695 OPS Like Rooker, it's not about Wallner's numbers. It's about how he got his results, and identifying major weaknesses in his game. Like Rooker, Wallner does not have a consistent weakness to certain pitches which can be exploited. You know, 2strikes = slider, guaranteed strike 3 (Sano). Wallner also covers the plate well enough despite the seemingly consistent criticism on the site. There are very few hitters in MLB who don't have 3 below average sectors in the 9 sector strike zone. Wallner is not Eduoard Julien or Miguel Sano. I also feel it's odd to see the criticism of Rooker and Wallner while I'm far less likely to read the same kind of feelings towards Larnach. Larnach's career year was 2024, and in that career year (only season he's generated more than 0.7 fWAR, he produced 1.4 fWAR to tie Matt Wallner's 2025...)

Best is awfully subjective here. Correa has no more post-season heroics than Gagne so I'm not sure why Correa gets extra credit here. Gagne OPS'd 1.187 vs. Detroit in 1987. He's a big reason the Twins advanced to the World Series. Zoilo Versalles had the best single season with Smalley's 1978 after that. I guess "best" to me is the shortstop the Twins could count on year in and year out to be a solid every day player or better. 2.0+ WAR. Using fWAR. Tiebreaker = consecutive seasons 2.0+ fWAR, then best single season, I'm not counting trade seasons. Gagne 4x (50%, excluding the 30 PA total in '83-'84) Smalley 3x (38%) Cardenas 3x (100%) Versalles 3x (43%) Bartlett 2x (67%) Correa 2x (67%) Polanco 2x (29%, excludes 20 PA total in '14-'15, and '23 where he was 2B)

I'm pretty confident Wallner is the next Rooker. He was better with runners on than bases empty last year, and pitchers absolutely pitched around him because most of the Twins lineup was useless. Wallner will rebound. The level of hate for Wallner on this site reminds me a lot of the negative comments about Rooker back in the day... and the complete unwillingness for the haters to accept they were absolutely dead wrong after that. Being right on the internet is critically important to the ego, you know, haha.

In order to rebound, they needed to have been good to begin with. The .275/.330/.475 line isn't impossible but it would absolutely be shocking. Lee's career xBA is .245 since he doesn't hit a lot of line drives and he's not quick enough to generate infield hits on the tons of balls he pounds into the ground with his "geared for power" swing. Assuming Lee's Max EV is reflective of his raw power, he might have 50 grade power with his game power probably being more like 40. A 200 ISO (top 20% of all MLB hitters) isn't something you generally see without 60+ grade power for a poor runner like Lee. .275 AVG (top 20% in baseball, accomplished by heavily reducing grounders from 44% to 35% and converting them into line drives from 20% to 25% and fly balls 29% to 33% and adding 2 ft/sec to his sprint speed) .330 OBP (increase BB% by 33% from 6% to 8%) .475 SLG (top 20% in baseball, accomplished by increasing swing speed from 70mph to 75mph) No problem. Easy off season regimen.

Wallner was better with runners on base than bases empty. .195/.291/.471 OPS .761 wRC+ 109 bases empty .217/.348/.452 OPS .800 wRC+ 124 runners on .177/.329/.323 OPS .652 wRC+ 89 RISP when it came to RISP, Wallner got junk to hit because pitchers were afraid of him and pretty much nobody else in the Twins' lineup. Wallner walked 17.7% of the time with just a 24.1% K rate Wallner had a whopping 79 PA with RISP last year. Just 35 PA with high leverage. The negative narratives TD posters spin up about him just never hold up to scrutiny.

Missing from this article is the familiar 2nd half performance drop for Joe Ryan. 4.67 ERA, 4.59 FIP, though his xFIP remained extremely consistent throughout the season. 3.70 first half, 3.69 second half. Ryan didn't earn his super sparkly ERA in the first half, but he didn't earn the rough ERA in the second half either. A reason to non-tender him? Something happens which will prevent him from pitching prior to arbitration due date. Barring such an unexpected catastrophe, he must be tendered. Joe Ryan has cemented himself as a back end #2 type starter, I think.

Prielipp had TJ. The surgery wasn't successful and the Twins drafted him out of college during Prielipp's initial recovery period. He had to have a followup UCL procedure early. Once he recovered, he's been reliable while being stretched out. He's been on the 7 day IL one time in the past two years because of a blister. I don't know where people come up with their impressions on his health. He made 23 MiLB starts last year and would have probably made more if the Twins weren't being extra careful with his work buildup. Prielipp's last start was 6.0 innings. Starters are 3x more valuable than relievers, and about 5x more rare. Putting him the 'pen just because the Twins are weak on the bullpen is a waste.

I see some comments about how Torii Hunter was a great resource for Royce Lewis. I guess that doesn't move the needle much for me since I'm not all that impressed with Royce's production. Love Royce Lewis, but if you're going to use a reference, at least use a successful one.

Average middle reliever, he's fair to keep at $1.3MM. 1 WAR does not equal $8MM of value by any stretch of the imagination. 1 WAR for $8MM is the going rate for free agents when you divide their salary by WAR. 1 win will cost $1.4MM in MLB salary ($3.5B / 81 wins / 30 teams) AAA replacement cost is $760k and will provide 0 wins. 1 WAR = 700k by that thought process. Cole Sands is not a free agent.

Lee was given regular playing time all year and he struggled all year, not just at times. He also struggled consistently in 2024 for what was a fairly signifcant portion of plate appearances. I'm not sure this article makes a lot of sense in general, but Lee was not a good player. While there is some hope, Lee's ceiling is pretty low. I think 2 WAR every day 2B is probably the absolute limit for Lee's potential. Lee's at 712 PA at the MLB level now. It's not a small sample size.

He delivered negative value and was hurt most of the season. Why spend $300k when you don't need to? I'm pretty sure Tonkin will take a guaranteed deal anywhere, and I'm also thinking he probably has to accept a MiLB deal with an invite next year.

Who to hire has to be a question of what can a manager do to add value? Fundamentals coaching/instruction Team strategy Gameday strategy Personnel management https://www.si.com/mlb/twins/minnesota-twins-news/torii-hunter-wants-to-manage-and-the-twins-should-let-him I don't know how good Torii Hunter or any other special assistant is at any of those things.

Probably not an investment I'd make. I don't think he's likely to be healthy going forward and his results in 2024 didn't carry forward. I don't see a reason to sign a guaranteed contract for -0.1 fWAR.

The Twins have run double the Pirates' payroll. The objective of the team, according to the ownership is the World Series. Nobody is looking to Pittsburgh on how to do that. This article is pretty much rage baiting.

You want the Pohlads making roster construction decisions?

Larnach is no longer an outfielder. He spent over half his time at DH last year and honestly, he only played in the outfield as a way to get a platoon lefty bat into the order when Wallner was out. It's highly likely Larnach is just a wRC+ 100 DH. He's an easy non-tender because he could be signed at or very close to league minimum after non-tendering. Despite his heavy platooning, his wRC+ 103 would rank 27th of 30 DH's with 1500+ plate appearances from 2021-2025.

Harrison Bader would be my vote. From a guy who needed to take a 1yr $6.25MM contract because of a far below league average bat and injury woes, Bader had his healthiest and most productive season at the plate for his entire career.

Brooks Lee is squaring up balls in the sweet spot of the bat at a high rate. Your note about swinging harder is critical. If he had more bat speed, his "barrel rate" (which requires a certain exit velo) would be higher. His squared up rate (when he hits a ball with 80% of the maximum exit velo possible) is in the top 1/4 of all MLB hitters. Lee's max exit velo suggests he's got juice in the tank, but he's trying to maximize contact vs. generating more power. If you look at where Lee is currently, it sure seems like there might be some opportunity to sacrifice some higher quality weak swing contact for some lower quality harder swing contact. Harder swings = more exit velocity. His current approach is non-viable at the MLB level so making the adjustment might be his only hope.

I understand having a favorite player or an optimistic outlook, but there is plenty of data on Brooks Lee. The sample size is beginning to grow at SS, and I've watched more than a handful of games. Objectively, Lee's average throw from SS was 80.7mph last year. Adequate for a 2B, but one of the worst arms you'll see as a regular shortstop. The average runner in baseball reaches about 27 ft/sec down the base path. The average throw from SS is about 130 feet. At 80.7mph or 121 ft/sec, the throw arrives in about 1.074 sec. An average SS 85.7mph arm (129ft/sec) would get to 1st base 0.938sec. 1.074sec - 0.938sec = Brooks Lee's throw reaches 1st base .136 seconds later than the average MLB SS. Runner traveling 27ft/sec x .136sec = 3.7 feet. That's what Brooks Lee's arm gives up relative to the average MLB shortstop. A bang-bang out play becomes an easy infield hit by almost 4 feet if Brooks Lee is throwing the ball. Lee's performance at the plate looks an awful lot like early Trevor Larnach. Lee was an easy out vs. changeups and slider variants. Considering those two pitches are amongst the most popular in baseball, it's not a projectable profile. When Lee does make contact, his bat speed is pretty slow so he doesn't generate much power. In summary, Lee is one of the worst runners in baseball, he's got one of the weakest arms for an infielder, he doesn't generate power at the plate, and he doesn't take walks or have good plate discipline. He's generated 0.0 fWAR the past two years combined. There is some reason to suspect an approach/swing change at the plate could generate more of the needed power as his max exit velo is 110mph (a little above average), but his ability to identify pitches is average at best. There's not much to be optimistic about in regard to Brooks Lee. He looks like another highly touted, but failed prospect to me.