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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Wallner's been given a pretty short leash, historically. As have some other young sluggers with the Twins in recent history. He got demoted fast in 2023. He got demoted fast in 2024. Calls to demote him come quick. Not saying he didn't need the demotions.
  2. bean5302
    Austin Martin is way outperforming expectations right now. Not my expectations, the metrics. Adjusting his walk rate to a reasonable level and his xBA you get .257/.337/.366 OPS .703 wRC+90 based on his terrible base running this year.
  3. bean5302
    There's reason to be cautiously optimistic about Houston hitting well enough to punch a ticket to MLB. He's in Cedar Rapids and basically holding his own at the plate as a 22 year old college draft pick who made it to junior year. He honestly needs to make it to AA this year if he's going to stay projectable. Average high level prospect promotion path from college is 2-3 years before MLB.
  4. bean5302
    The dichotomy here is hilarious. Send Wallner down... Lee hasn't been given a fair shake, LOL. Lee is a terrible defender who has never hit and has 80% the total plate appearances as Wallner. Lee's been allowed to play terribly for extended periods of time and has never been given a reset in AAA, meanwhile, Wallner has a bad 2-4 week period and he gets demoted.
  5. bean5302
    Which is why I wanted to get both Outman and Wallner off the roster. If we want a pinch runner, we should at least call up somebody fast.
  6. bean5302
    Wallner needs a change of scenery. His sprint speed is in the toilet this year, he's totally outmatched at the plate and not seeing the ball well. He'll either get his head in the game or wash out of the game. Emma should get the call and play every day as Outman gets DFA'd and Wallner demoted.
  7. bean5302
    Jon Rauch through his first 16.0 IP in 2010 = 1.69 ERA, 2.77 FIP Varland is absolutely melting faces this year. There was nothing to suggest he was capable of this kind of performance, and I do not expect it will continue, but he's certainly earned everything he's produced thus far with pinpoint control to go with very good stuff. I didn't like the Varland trade as part of everything else, but on its own in isolation, getting Rojas was worth it.
  8. bean5302
    Balls in play drop in for hits when Buxton is in center field which well above average MLB center fielders catch for outs. Buxton is fast. It doesn't make up for him not getting good reads off the ball. He doesn't start running until well after an average center fielder does. DRS 2024-2026, UZR (2024), OAA 2025+ all reflect Buxton being about average. Matt Wallner was "fast" for a right fielder back in 2023. He was still bad at fielding.
  9. bean5302
    Better to follow a process and determine if results are consistent with what you expect the results to be, especially in small sample sizes. Last year, Clemens was just as good for the Twins as Josh Bell is right now.
  10. bean5302
    Yeah his xwOBA and BABIP seems to be reflecting bad luck, even if Clemens winds up trailing expected by 10-15pts throughout his career, he's been solid enough at the plate.
  11. bean5302
    I can't get on board with the "Buxton doesn't need to play well because #intangibles" mentality which seems to come from his fans. Buxton is an average center fielder at this point since he's made a conscious effort to protect his health rather than recklessly risk it, and since he isn't elite reading the ball off the bat, he'd need to risk his health to be a plus defender. That's totally fine. CF has been roughly the same value as 3B or 2B in terms of position in recent history which means it's a plus value defensive position and he's certainly good enough to play there. His real quantitative value comes from his bat and that's been the case for the majority of his career.
  12. bean5302
    You mean having 9 bullpen arms pitch per game and forefeiting every other game because the team has no pitchers isn't a viable strategy?
  13. bean5302
    Yeah, I think he just needs desperately to develop a shorter memory if he's going to make it in MLB.
  14. bean5302
    Varland was nothing special while he was here. He wasn't good enough to stay in the rotation, and while his velo played up in the bullpen, he wasn't dominant. I expect the regression monster is coming for his stats sooner than later, especially when the scouting reports catch up to his knuckle curve. Never forgiving the Twins for trading Varland seems so extreme. I don't get the legendary status he seems to have acquired around here.
  15. bean5302
    Not at all understanding the continued concern with Prielipp's "injury history" which really amounts to 1 injury. UCL replacement in 2021, and the surgery failed, but it wasn't discovered the surgery failed until 2023. He underwent a UCL brace to strengthen the ligament. That's about it. There is no storied injury history. It was a common injury and the surgery didn't take so it had to be revisited. There's also no reason to be concerned about him throwing 80-90 pitches. He ended last year with a 6.0 inning start as I recall. I don't see a reason to be concerned for Prielipp going 140 innings this year.
  16. bean5302
    3B doesn't need the range so they don't need the speed. The glove is obviously important, but a 3B is involved in a lot fewer plays/outs than SS, and the 3B has fewer types of plays and responsibilities. Gonzalez doesn't have the range to play OF, but he's got a cannon arm. He's either a DH, 1B (a little lacking in reach) or 3B. Only 1 of those positions honestly makes sense for his bat limitations as an everyday player.
  17. bean5302
    Gotta be honest, I think Wallner needs some tough love at this point. I've been pretty defensive of him, but he honestly is just terrible at the plate. It looks like he's just guessing at pitches rather than seeing them and he needs to get out of his own head. "Figure it out or end your MLB career here and now. We're sending you to St. Paul in hopes you can get out of your head and start trusting in your eyes and following a process." should be the message he gets. Nice to see Prielipp successful. It was raining all day out there so I'm not sure how much that played into making control more difficult. Regardless, a lot of run support and it started fairly early which was great! I was in club level since I picked up a ticket for $20, but it was a terrible turn out. Maybe 5,000 fans in the stadium. Drafts at 34 was closed by the 5th inning.
  18. bean5302
    Seriously. I do wonder whether Gabriel Gonzales could learn 3B.
  19. bean5302
    Combined no hitters are meaningless to me. Nothing more than the equivalent of a participation trophy. Glad they have value to somebody, but I only care if somebody goes the distance. Obviously, that is kind of not a thing in the minors as it's really not what the minors are for, but it's what the game was about. Zebby clearly reaching back for an extra couple mph again. Only threw 1 curveball in the game.
  20. bean5302
    Boston is fine. They have a good shot at the playoffs with a very talented roster. They just fired the manager and a bunch of the coaching staff as a shake up/wake up call. The Blue Jays, Orioles and Red Sox have started cold and I don't believe for a second that Tampa has the roster to compete in that division through the rest of the year.
  21. bean5302
    Yes, and Falzoll put no effort into replacing the outgoing arms. Also, this team isn't young. C = 29 1B = 33 2B = 23 3B = 27 SS = 25 LF = 27 CF = 32 RF = 28 DH = 29 UO = 29 UI = 30 Util = 30 BC = 32 only 2 position players under age 27 on the team. SP = 30 SP = 30 SP = 25 SP = 25 SP = 25 rotation is pretty young RP = 35 RP = 35 RP = 32 RP = 29 RP = 28 RP = 28 RP = 28 RP = 24 Bullpen is old
  22. bean5302
    Wonder what the "encouraging news" was? Given Falzol seems to treat injury news like players on the Twins are NFL quarterbacks where opposing teams change entire strategies around them, I'd say the encouraging news was a partial tear and the possibility Abel could avoid surgery exists. Rest and rehab never works.
  23. bean5302
    Even though I seriously question his ability to keep it up, Ober has delivered quality outcomes recently.
  24. bean5302
    I think it's obvious the Twins don't have faith in Culpepper's stuff at this point, but there's no reason not to have him in AAA. Batted ball type below AAA is pretty questionable, but Culpepper's got a 30% line drive rate against (absolutely terrible) and his xFIP down there is 4.28 suggesting he's due for a lot of home run regression, too. He could at least eat some innings at AAA, though.
  25. bean5302
    I agree with Richie. The concensus was the bullpen was an obvious need and Falzoll failed to address this obvious point of desperation despite the means to do so. The Twins needed a couple high ceiling/high floor guys. Reliable, better than adequate bullpen arms. They went dumpster diving for cast offs instead. Banda's track record was well established as poor quality in my honest opinion. It seemed like I was in the minority of expecting him to be a virtual guaranteed poor performer, but to me it seemed pretty predictable. Topa is fine as mid innings eater. Rogers has lost more velo and without a 4 seamer, he's unable to strike anybody out. Funderburk's having the same issue as always. Same issue as Marco Raya. Unable to hit the broad side of a barn with pitch. 7.00 BB/9? That's crazy. Morris is not a hard thrower by bullpen standards. 96mph is maybe average for a reliever? While the sparkly 10.29 K/9 looks good, the reality is a very pedestrian 23% K rate. His K/9 is propped up by the 1.86 WHIP. He's been awful in 2 of 3 games. 3.0 IP with 2.00 WHIP, 1.1 IP with 3.75 WHIP, 2.0 IP with 0.75 WHIP. Tiny sample size, though. Acton. He's a cast off, but maybe? The Athletics didn't want him. The Rays didn't want him. The Marlins didn't want him. Before the Brent Rooker comments... unlike Rooker, it's not like Acton did anything in AAA the past few years to inspire optimism. Sands is fine as a middle reliever. The fact he was looked at as a likely closer tells a grim story for the Twins bullpen. Orze. The regression to the xFIP feels destined to occur. He's got MLB hitters reeling a little, wondering at what is coming, but I just don't think it will be long before the scouting reports catch up.
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