bean5302

Berrios was not a rental. He was under team control through 2022.

Marek Houston is a little better than league average now after a big game. He's showing an increased plate discipline required for his modest power output. I think he should move to AA after the All Star Break if he's able to continue to build on his performances. As a defensive specialist at SS, he could be knocking on the door before the end of next year. That's one other reason I think it's time for Culpepper. Need to see him play SS at the MLB level.

I also think it's time for Kaelen Culpepper now. His defensive metrics aren't blowing me away, but they look adequate. He's not nearly as error prone as Twins SS prospects of the past, and his overall RF/9 looks competitive or better than most SS's in the league. He's at 3.90 RF/9 where I typically feel 4.00+ is required to be adequate and 4.25+ is where the good SS's live, but it's a pretty small sample size and pitching in the International League is a joke. Like an Oprah show where everybody gets a HR. I'd option Gray and call up Culpepper.

Here's hoping Lewis isn't expecting to hit 2HR per game at the MLB level and he's able to lay off bad pitches he won't be able to contact or drive. If he's willing to be more patient, I believe he'll be good. as far as where he plays, who knows with this team.

Revisiting the Berrios trade, I think Berrios' production means less than what the Twins got back in return. The Twins were in the drivers seat for the most coveted starter in MLB (other than Scherzer who was part of an enormous package with Trea Turner). Berrios was viewed as the most valuable trade target started in MLB as an absolute workhorse, playoff caliber starter who was more than a rental. BBTV rejected the trade as lopsided in favor of the Twins as I recall. Martin + SWR was like +55 and Berrios was like +40ish. In any case, what COULD the Twins have gotten vs. what DID the Twins get? The Twins were looking for MLB ready or near MLB ready players who could help the team as soon as 2022. Both Martin and SWR were in AA in 2021. Unfortunately, SWR's aversion to coaching and adjustments meant he was delayed until 2024, and even then, he provided modest value by 3.0 fWAR across 2 starter seasons featuring multiple demotions due to performance problems. The BaseballReference dart board of value, which makes no sense to me currently, pegged SWR at a substantially more valuable 4.1 bWAR. Austin Martin has not provided any substantial value IMHO. When it comes to Martin, he was done dirty by a Twins front office which I don't respect. I personally believe players should be put into positions where they can be successful in the field, which means they have the physical skill set to succeed, and they should learn that position inside and out becoming naturals. The Twins front office seems to follow the same belief that a few TD posters have. Sandlot baseball, folks, draw straws to see where you play today, it doesn't matter. The sandlot baseball strategy doesn't resonate with my life experiences suggesting you need a lot of repetition to become good at something, and my feeling seems to align with many quotes from MLB players who've changed positions over the years. I've been very impressed with Martin's arm this year. Now several years removed from a UCL tear that shut him down starting March 2023 which was treated with the dreaded rest and rehab approach, Martin's throws from the outfield suggest at least a 55+ grade arm. I think he could have value at 3B or 2B where looked solid in his last consistent work in 2023. I don't think Martin's bat will play well at the corners. Martin seems to lack fly ball tracking skills or situational awareness as he approaches walls in the outfield. I'm not sure he plays a static position enough to improve his comfort. For the record, players have stated how much harder it is to over RF/LF than CF in terms of instincts as ball flight paths are far more difficult to predict as they slice more and there are more angles to adjust than CF where it's more about athleticism, I guess. Anyway, I don't think the Twins are going to give Martin a static position so I think he'll continue to provide thin value overall. I don't think there's any doubt the Twins could have been more successful in acquiring players of far more real world value production, but I think they did okay. It's not like they got nothing at all, and on paper they fleeced Toronto at the time.

I've done this a few times, but Berrios stat line across the season in 2022 is not valuable. First, Toronto won 60% of the games Berrios started. Second, you can see (green) starts where Berrios went 5.0+ IP with an ERA of 3.99 or less or (yellow 6.0-6.2 IP allowing 3 ER for a QS). Then there are the orange games where the game wasn't really out of hand. I haven't done a breakdown recently but as I recall an old post I did Berrios had a few blowup games where he was absolutely shelled, but overall, he was far better in terms of wins/losses than what the ERA would imply while pitching 172.0 innings in a full season. Berrios was not treated like an ace. The Twins were throwing $80MM figures at him which is why he wasn't interested. The Blue Jays signed Berrios to a #3-4 money contract. Lets revisit what pitchers are making, shall we? Elite Ace = $35MM+ #1 = $30MM+ #2 = $25MM+ #3 = $20MM+ #4 = $15MM+ <-- Berrios at $18.7MM #5 = $10MM+

WHIP of 1.35 is fine. xERA 3.80, FIP 3.75, xFIP 4.18. Looking at his last 3 rough starts, 9.42 ERA, 5.06 xERA, 2.97 FIP, 4.67 xFIP. Nothing really stands out as bad over a 3 game stretch save for the ERA. Exit velos, hard hit, barrels, etc all look fine. The BABIP of .420 is wayyyyy too high. It seems like a lot of bad luck. Twins fielders don't help. His stuff looks good, but he's struggling with locating the his breaking stuff. Not unexpected, especially given Prielipp is just learning the curveball. He was not ready when the Twins called him up, but he was needed. More encouraging, there are flashes. His fastballs are mediocre, but there are flashes of him being able to locate them expertly. His slider is a borderline 60 grade pitch at the MLB level, and the curve could be a 70+ grade offering. Prielipp has some weapons.

Even Joe Mauer struggled to learn 1B. One of the most gifted athletes in the history of modern sports. It took Mauer 3 years at the position, a position he started playing after he was already well established as a likely Hall of Famer and after he'd won a few gold gloves at catcher before he was good at playing first base. I find your position to be filled with so much hubris it's difficult to accept you're not trolling.

I have it on good authority guys like Tristan Gray and Ryan Kreidler are practically Ozzie Smith in the infield and Willie Mays in CF. We have 1337 defense.

Can Lewis catch a ball? Yes Can Lewis step on a bag? Yes Does Lewis instinctively know where to position himself? No. Does Lewis instinctively know when to scoop, when to block, when to come off the bag? No. Does Lewis instinctively know when/how to hold a runner at 1B? No. Does Lewis instinctively know what his role is backing up other fielders? No. Does Lewis instinctively know the sequence of fielding? No. It's not a question of catching a baseball and stepping on a base for a force out. It's the repetition of different actions and sequences which are not committed to memory which will make Lewis a bad 1B. Positional flexibility is a joke. There's a reason the Twins suck at defense (which is spelled correctly there despite the red squiggly line under the word). They don't develop it. Players making transitions to new positions have made comments about learning a new positions, especially in the infield, repeatedly over the years. It's hard. Aside from that, Lewis is a better fielder than Brooks Lee, IMHO. 1B is a position where you put bad fielders with big bats.

Fedko is NBD at AAA. He's "good" for that level, not great. Pitching in the International League is "Animal Food Drop Water" to quote the French in Monty Pythons Holy Grail.

There are some very positive indicators in results the past couple of games. I care more about the strike out rate than the walk rate at AAA, and Lewis had a few games in a row where he was just absolutely hacking away. I reviewed the pitch by pitch results from game logs and it wasn't just the results. The plate approach needs to be there because the results will not come at the MLB level. I believe Lewis can be an All Star, but he absolutely will not be an All Star if he doesn't take what pitchers give him instead of trying to force it. Good approach first. Then refine, and adapt, and refine. The approach comes first.

it's true. Fedko could add or subtract between 0.1 and 0.2 WAR per year over Outman based on the 25 PA they'll get, lol

What this means is projection tools can't account for SSS or unexpected breakouts. It does not mean projection tools aren't worth noting. There's a reason projection tools exist. They cost money. Somebody is literally paying for that data.

that was a lot of question marks. Lewis is not a good hitter at the MLB level without changing his approach. Lewis probably hasn't changed his approach yet. The journeyman roster filler guys who replaced him in the starting lineup are playing BETTER than could be reasonably expected.

First off, Happy Birthday to Royce Lewis! Lewis was hyper aggressive when he came back from the IL. He's shown league average pitch recognition, though he's always tended to be aggressive at the plate. Honestly, he's struggled against fastballs in recent seasons. His timing needs adjustment as does his "new" plate approach. Lewis was not helpful to the team when he was demoted. The expected metrics also showed Lewis wasn't league average at the plate. If he hasn't made the adjustments he needs to make, and last time I checked, he hadn't, then he's not going to be substantially better than what the Twins have. What was the point of the demotion if not to get him right? Was there some belief that Gray and Kreidler were legitimate MLB starting caliber players? Also, where is Lewis needed? Lee is at 3B now (not that he's any good at it), the Twins are trashing Lewis' value moving him all over the diamond having him stand where different positions stand. He played 1B last night. Is he moving back to SS without playing it?

They need to trade him if they're trying to make him a 1B.

I saw that. Seems like the malice part probably came from the interpretation they attempted to flee the scene. An awful situation.

This season's DaShawn Keirsey please stand up! Keirsey through June 4th, 2024 (called up just before then). a27 - 213PA - .302/.390/.538 OPS .928 wRC+ 135, 12.7% BB, 23.5% K, ISO .236 (Keirsey) vs a26 - 199PA - .287/.372/.561 OPS .933 wRC+ 134, 10.6% BB, 21.6% K, ISO .275 (Fedko) Projection tools have Fedko well below league average at the plate for good reason. He's 26 and he's moved very slowly through the minors with multiple hiccups along the way. A college draft pick who is going to make an impact typically takes 2-3 years. Fedko is in year 6. That's plenty of time to polish, polish, polish what talent a guy has. It takes more than polish to be successful at MLB, though. It takes talent. Both have to be there. His xwOBA in AAA is dramatically lower than actual wOBA, his EV is good for AAA, but projecting it to MLB puts him probably bottom quartile (88mph-ish). I don't have any problems playing Fedko 2x per week for 3 plate appearances or whatever Outman would get, but I don't see any real upside there.

If guys are able to locate well, they aren't going to have high walk levels. It's the opposite for Hill who appears to have no command or even control. Hill feels like he's following a pattern. No idea where his stuff is going and low minors hitters will swing at junk. He's literally one of the elite worst pitchers in all of the minor leagues when it comes to walks. Spin rate is worthless if the mechanics used to generate that spin aren't repeatable and the pitcher has no idea where the pitches are going. Low minors hitters are already exposing his issues. Best case scenario, Hill seems a long way off.

12K s in 13.1 innings is below leage average. 6 walks in 13.1 innings is bad. and that's why we don't use ERA to determine if a pitcher is good across a handful of innings. But hey, feel free to travel back in time and bet on Andrew Albers winning the Cy Young in 2013 after his first start or two.

SWR was traded to the Blue Jays for cash.

Not sure where this perception comes from, but I don't see anything suggesting Morris is good in short or long outings. In his last 11 outings, and 9.1 IP, Morris has 2 wild pitches, 1 hit by pitch, 5 walks and 5 runs allowed.

Speaks volumes about how the entire league viewed him. Worth a waiver claim flier and that's about it. The Twins basically moved Toronto to the front of the claim list for a Snickers bar and a case of Gatorade.

Lots of changes in the minors in recent seasons. 40 MiLB teams eliminated MLB full organizational roster down from 180 to 165 Different effort levels for pitchers More veteran/journeyman who are good in MiLB due to wage/living situation changes and increased signing bonuses.