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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Radke was lights out in the 2nd half. Pitched to a 2.84 ERA in his last 10 games. Bonser was very good in the 2nd half after he was recalled as well, but not as good as Liriano who Bonser was tasked with replacing in the rotation. That 2006 team was absolutely loaded. If Liriano doesn't go down, the Twins had a good shot at winning the World Series.
  2. bean5302
    I have it on good authority from many experts here on Twins Daily that no team ever loses money... Actually, I don't think the negative cash flow is a problem at all because it's easy to wipe $25MM from the payroll. I suspect it's only an issue for buyers who don't understand the market. The cash flow/operating income for MLB teams are not usually all that positive according to the published estimated numbers.
  3. bean5302
    While I agree he might do well with an assignment to get his swing back, but the truth is most successful teams the Twins are saying they want to emulate let younger guys like Lewis play every day and struggle through the terrible points. This team has handled Lewis extremely poorly in my opinion. It might be they're trying to bridge the failures of management at this point. I'm not sure what's eating Lewis. Might be just injury fear at this point or mechanics. I'm not sure AAA will help with that because he wasn't hitting in AAA when the Twins called up him up, clearly not ready.
  4. bean5302
    More info at SI https://www.si.com/mlb/twins/minnesota-twins-news/twins-sale-gaining-steam-potential-buyers-reportedly-touring-target-field I get the feeling the Pohlads are gripping the fact fans are done with them owning the Twins and they're more willing to negotiate the price. If the family comes to the realization they're not going to be able to turn things around with their name on the franchise, it puts them in a big bind.
  5. bean5302
    Dehydration can significantly impact muscle strains, muscle pain, aggravate concussions and trigger migraines. It was a brutal scorcher today, and it's fine with me if they didn't want to stress test the heck out of Wallner's hammy or Buxton's noggin. Seems like Wallner's bat is ready, and it sounds like Buxton is expected to join the team for the Seattle series. I think they should be getting both guys back. It wasn't a terrible start for Lopez, and the bats put up 68 runs in 13 games over the streak (5.23 per game) which is at the top of the league with a bunch of journeyman AAAA or hobbled up guys in the lineup. That's obviously not sustainable. Win some. Lose some.
  6. bean5302
    and watch him hit 17 home runs in Safeco... er T-Mobile Park while staring down Mitch Garver and mouthing... "What, you can't do this here? Man, that sucks!" Something like that.
  7. bean5302
    The pitching staff has has basically been universally at their career bests when the lineup was a catastrophe. A bunch of career years lining up can happen (see 1987, 1991) over a full season, but I feel pretty confident the batters are going to need to figure it out and score more runs steadily for the Twins to make the playoffs, let alone win 100 games. I find the second option there to be pretty far-fetched right now.
  8. bean5302
    1. Make it illegal to ask about pre-existing conditions so, essentially, universal guaranteed insurability. 2. Create a "government plan" which is universal and require private health insurers to offer the exact plan. Cap this plan's cost more aggressively than the 80/20 ratio currently required due to its simplicity. 3. Include automatic health insurance enrollment in the government plan in unemployment compensation if the unemployed person isn't already covered elsewhere. 4. Require employers to provide an employer sponsored health insurance plan or contributions to private insurance in addition to wages through some sort of insurance savings plan or whatever. Like an HSA. 5. If an person does not have health insurance and racks up medical debt, the government pays the debt to the provider using a medicaid fee schedule, then collects from the delinquent individual through the IRS/wage garnishment. That's what the AHCA should have looked like IMHO.
  9. bean5302
    I see Ryan as 10th in fWAR 12th in FIP , but tied with 2 other guys for 7th in bWAR and in sole possession of ERA+ just ahead of 2 guys who are 1,000% more likely to make the team (deGrom and Skubal). Ryan's on the cusp, but if things were voted on today, I doubt he makes it because of so many big names around his performance.
  10. bean5302
    He whiffs way too much in the zone for my taste. His pitch identification skills seem a bit lacking. When I look at his plate approach pitch by pitch, it just seems like there are endless ways for an MLB caliber pitcher to exploit him. I need to go back and see how MLB pitchers on rehab assignments have potentially pitched him.
  11. bean5302
    I wonder what the Twins intend with Pierson Ohl? Past due for AAA now, but he gives up too many hits to project well. Seems like he's staying in the zone way, way too much. 71.2% zone rate here in 52 pitches, 37 were in the zone. In MiLB, seems like Ohl's stuff is good enough to generate a lot of foul balls from pitches in the zone, but it actually just leads to him being surprisingly inefficient considering how much he pounds the zone. Those foul balls won't stay foul in MLB, either. He'll get himself destroyed throwing 71% in the zone, though Ohl's locations look pretty good most of the time. Should be able to find some space in the AAA rotation by bumping Raya and/or Lewis.
  12. bean5302
    Fedko is following the pattern of struggle, do well, struggle, do well on back to back years at the same level. Generally, it's synonymous with iffy prospects and Fedko is already 25. It's great to see him hitting so well, but he's never shown this kind of power production. He's literally doubled his best ISO's of his MiLB career so far. It's not unheard of for game power to explode at age 24-26, but he looks like a pretty late bloomer. There's a lot of moving pieces right now in the Twins' system with Wallner set to be activated any day. Outfield Options for St. Paul DaShawn Keirsey, Jr. - 26 man Emmanuel Rodriguez - 40 man Jeferson Morales - a26 NR (Intl sign Venezuela 2016) Daulton Shuffield - a26 NR (10th round 2022) Austin Martin - 7 day IL Hamstring (probably back soon) Shuffield can play IF, same with Austin Martin, who might be better at 2B than as a corner OF option, but who the Twins shift around is totally up in the air to me.
  13. bean5302
    Emma doesn't have a great eye at the plate in my opinion, but it's not terrible, either. Pitchers are throwing him absolute junk because there's no reason to stay in the zone against him. I've long suspected Rodriguez would struggle against better pitching, and while he is walking in AAA, MLB pitchers won't have to throw "junk" to get him out IMHO. Swinging strike 3 down and away (changeup) and up and away (fastball) to frame his 4 plate appearances where pitchers felt comfortable throwing him a ball in the dirt on 3-0 counts in the middle two plate appearances. I've been watching the box scores against him recently. Could be a really cold spell, but seems consistent.
  14. bean5302
    Lower K rate in AAA than Low A. It's hard not to see progress there overall or look at how his results have changed as he's moved up the ladder. He's definitely gotten better, and we're dealing with a sample size over the course of 1,000 plate appearances. The bar was DaShawn Keirsey, Jr. 1.6% BB, 33.3% K. The guy at .115/.143/.164 wRC+ -20. When Keirsey is getting regular playing time, I think it's reasonable to want him on the bench or in AAA vs. McCusker, but I also would have liked to see McCusker stay in AAA a little longer.
  15. bean5302
    Nobody is a lock on the Twins for some reasons previously noted. First, pitchers don't get votes from fans. Second, the season is still young so regression is going to happen for both Twins players and league players so there are going to be some big swings in results columns/value. Third, the Twins don't have a strong fan base to vote for them. Fourth, the team doesn't have any popular superstars on it. In regard to who deserves an All Star nod at this point in the season, there will need to be 12 pitchers and 20 position players: OF x6 - Buxton gets the nod as deserving here, but he's not going to be a starter because he's not winning a popular vote. 1B x2 - None. 2B x2 - None. 3B x2 - None. SS x2 - None. C x 2 - None. DH x 1 - None. Open x 3 - None. SP x 7ish - None. RP x 5ish - Duran. When it comes to starters, Skubal, Eovaldi, Crochet, Bubic, Brown, Fried, Woo arguably all better than our guys, and if we change up the vote to rely on ERA, guys like Mahle get the nod. When it comes to relievers, Jax is a tough sell with the ERA, but I could see players/managers putting him in because of the luck factor in SSS.
  16. bean5302
    Holland's bat was weak to terrible in the minors until last year in a SSS with a career MiLB wRC+ 72. Arcia's had solid years of production at the MLB level, but he was rough last year. He's a MLB career wRC+ 77. Holland may well make Vazquez look like an MVP at the plate. Hitting? That's debatable, but I'd lean towards probably not. Fielding? Absolutely night and day. Brooks Lee can't handle SS. It's a moot point, though. Arcia signed an MLB deal with the Rockies already.
  17. bean5302
    Sabato was left off the roster and exposed to rule 5 and he's still in AA. The former first round pick's batting line features a .352 BABIP when his career number is .272, and it's not like Sabato is hitting for power. It does not make sense to compare McCusker to Sabato for a lot of reasons, not the least of which was Sabato was a supposedly polished first round pick who's had years of the best coaching and instruction in the world while McCusker was undrafted and has needed to rely upon coaches equipped with far fewer capabilities. It shows in the way they've progressed. Sabato has largely stalled out while McCusker has continued to get better and grow as he's moved up levels. It's not like McCusker is any kind of guaranteed MLB caliber player, but he's got a lot higher chance of being valuable than Sabato.
  18. bean5302
    The Ishbia's did walk away, then bought a greater share in the White Sox, which is not a negotiation tactic. Not sure what soured the Ishbia's so hard towards the end of negotiations, but it's pretty clear the Pohlads botched it. It sounds like the Pohlads want to roll their debt into the sale and bury it. They've moved down to $1.5B, but even then, rolling $400MM of negative equity into the sale puts the actual price at more like $1.9B. https://www.minnesotasportsfan.com/minnesota-twins/rumors-team-sale-update-potential-buyers-losing-interest/ https://www.si.com/mlb/twins/minnesota-twins-rumors/report-potential-minnesota-twins-buyers-being-turned-off-by-price
  19. bean5302
    65-70% strike rate is pretty normal. It's not like Matthews was throwing 70% of his pitches in the zone. In fact, he was throwing just 48.1% "strikes" which is below average. On the season he's at 52.6% zone rate, which is middle of the pack. I'm not sure where the narrative Matthews pounds the zone comes from. I guess it's because his stuff is close enough to the zone or good enough to get MiLB hitters to chase or that he can throw a strike if needed. It's pretty clear Matthews has plenty to work on when it comes to command. Joe Ryan had a problem with not issuing walks when he needed to earlier in his career. To avoid the walk, he'd throw a challenge pitch and his stuff wasn't really good enough to pull that off. Baldelli talked about it as well. I think Matthews might be in the same boat. He doesn't have overpowering stuff, but he does have pitches which are good enough to get it done. He'll need to learn better command and when to make that challenge pitch vs. when not to. It'll pay off down the line if he's able to get those things in order.
  20. bean5302
    I do not hate the Pohlads or have disdain for them. I hate the way the team has been run, especially in recent seasons, and that's the responsibility of the Pohlad family. The most recent information in the media suggests the Pohlads aren't being reasonable in their selling price which further irritates me. Trying to roll the Pohald Family business debt into the Twins while simultaneously asking for top dollar just isn't realistic. All that said, it's not like I wish them any ill will personally. I'd like them to get rid of the team and sell it to new ownership who might manage the business better.
  21. bean5302
    I meant it when I said your "eye test" might be a lot more valuable than the limited metrics I have to go on. It wasn't me being sarcastic. There aren't enough quality metrics out there on Gasper to make a strong case in his defense.
  22. bean5302
    Paddack will be a salary dump to make room for a different acquisition at best, IMHO. Nobody is giving up a decent prospect for him.
  23. bean5302
    I think everybody is happy with the results Paddack has been getting. I'm over the moon with it, to be honest. It's just not going to stay that way. He's going to end the year with a 5.00 ERA or so.
  24. bean5302
    Jenkins is out until at least June. There's been some coverage of it, but it's easy to miss since it's been a while. https://www.si.com/mlb/twins/minnesota-twins-news/twins-top-prospect-walker-jenkins-can-t-shake-nagging-ankle-injury
  25. bean5302
    Noticed the Saints replaced Wallner in right field with Morales in the top of the 8th. A little concerning considering the Saints were down 10-4 so it's not like it was a hold the lead type of a defensive substitution. Camargo's right forearm strain is also concerning. I may not believe he's going to be an MLB caliber player, but it'd be no fun to see him end his season with a UCL injury. Hopefully, it's just a minor muscle strain issue that'll clear up fast. Baker continues to do well in AA, overall. Allowed a run in a labored 4th inning, but left the game after only 58 pitches. As a MiLB rule 5 pick, Baker is about as good as you might hope. Seems like there's a chance he could find his way into the bullpen even if a spot in the rotation seems a bit of a stretch. Doncon should be moved back up soon. It's clear he's wasting time in Ft. Myers at this point.
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