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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    It was theoretically impossible for a human being standing where Wallner was standing the moment the ball went off the bat to catch the ball. Savant said this was a 10% of the time catch (for anybody, not just Buxton) and shows it on his fielding map https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sporty-videos?playId=336f5c50-bf81-3d94-a06b-3bd5852988ad If you're saying Wallner made it look close, that just says Wallner truly made an elite effort to field that ball. Wallner apparently with an effort so great it makes Byron Buxton look like Brent Rooker.
  2. bean5302
    It was not even recorded as a possible attempt for any fielder in the game by Baseball Savant. It was so far out of the realm of possibility it's not even in consideration for the potential a fielder could have made a play on it.
  3. bean5302
    As I suspected. This hit doesn't even show up on Matt Wallner's potential grid of plays. There was no chance of catching the ball. Juan Soto's line out shows up at 22ft, 3.4 seconds on the grid so it's up to date.
  4. bean5302
    .750 expected batting average on that ball. I don't see Byron Buxton making a play on that if Buxton was in RF, but Savant will update with the expected catch percentage tomorrow. Then again, low hanging fruit. Wallner is going to take heat on any and every play he doesn't make at this point. Upper deck home run? Do you even jump, bruh? lol
  5. bean5302
    Blyleven - practically everything for a multi-year qualified Twins starter. All of these are practically untouchable.
  6. bean5302
    As of 2025, players on the active rosters (26 man) born outside the United States. United States excludes territories. The percentage of non-US states born players dropped to the lowest since 2014 this year down to 26%. https://www.mlb.com/press-release/press-release-opening-day-rosters-feature-265-internationally-born-players
  7. bean5302
    Scouting reports get out when pitchers add new pitches. Joe Ryan has seen a number of changes to his arsenal over the years which were initially successful and later got hit hard as scouting reports caught up. SWR's stuff doesn't grade out well in terms of Stuff+ or PitchingBot. It's not surprising hitters have figued it out now that they know what to look for.
  8. bean5302
    @tarheeltwinsfan@JADBP @JD-TWINS Across all outfielder who played MLB and had at least 600 plate appearances from 2023-2025, ranked by wRC+ (offensive runs created), but will also likely align closely with OPS+ in case you like that metric better.
  9. bean5302
    Jenkins is hitting balls pretty hard, but he's driving them into the ground. He's over a 50% grounder rate with low line drive rates which is why his production stats are rough. Like others, I'm hoping he starts getting a little more under the ball to generate some line drives and quality fly balls instead of the infield choppers.
  10. bean5302
    Super oversimplified: This is DRS, except there are 100s of lines instead of a few. So many lines that there are zero balls in play which land in areas in like a full season so it's prone to wild overcompensation. Especially if a fielder makes a play in an area well outside expected or misplays balls which should be easy. It's just like UZR except UZR has fewer lines and doesn't have "unlimited" multipliers like DRS. So if a player makes a great play with UZR, it doesn't influence their fielding score as wildly. This is OAA. No matter how bad the positioning of the fielder, it cares about how far away the ball was hit. A fielder who positions themselves well doesn't get credit for the plays they made because they didn't have to move.
  11. bean5302
    From 2023-2025 Wallner is the 7th best hitting outfielder in the entire game with 600+ PAs. Just behind Mookie Betts and a few spots ahead of Byron Buxton. Ditching him after 82 PA is too premature to be rational.
  12. bean5302
    Yes, but he's an average defender by the metric used by fangraphs (outs above average). Guess he's solid in the field... or defensive metrics are utterly worthless at this same size.
  13. bean5302
    Under 50 PA is absolutely nothing. 100 PA is barely anything. Under 200 PA isn't a decent sample. First off, Larnach isn't going to continue to hit like this. He won't continue to walk 30% of the time, and a lot of those walks will turn into Ks. He's a league average hitter if he's not protected from lefties and he's a DH in year 2 of arbitration. Like 99% of fans on this site were exacerbated he was tendered a contract last year. Larnach isn't part of the Twins' future. At his absolute peak, he's a 1.5 WAR 65% of the time player. Wallner could be. There has yet to be a season where Wallner's worst at the plate isn't as good as Larnach's best, even if Wallner isn't shielded from lefties like Larnach usually is. Emma and Roden were both basically below average hitters before getting ahold of Philadelphia's AAA pitching staff this past week. I realize they've had 5 good games now so it's time to start the immediate roster shuffle and all..
  14. bean5302
    Rodriguez has really been on a tear over his last 5 games, but I'm not sure how projectable a 35% BB rate is. Honestly, the Twins are out of time with him. It'd be a good value to get Emma some regular plate appearances at the MLB level soon. While I'm not as down on Wallner as others, he sure hasn't hit well at all through his first 20 games. He's totally outmatched at the plate right now. It's like he's guessing at pitches rather than reading them. Outman should be DFA'd, Wallner's honestly earning a demotion for Emma to be called up to play RF. Can't imagine the Twins are going to show more than about 10 additional games of patience with him.
  15. bean5302
    Why not sign Dylan Bundy out of retirement?
  16. bean5302
    This is terrible news. I don't see Abel missing less than 4 starts, but at least the issue wasn't immediately off the mound and his velo didn't show a big drop at the end of his last start. The fact this is "elbow inflammation" looks really bad, though. Rojas was up to 50 pitches and pitched 3.1 innings in his last outing. Prielipp was up to 76 and pitched 5.0 innings in his last outing. I think there's a fair shot Zebby gets the call even though the Twins have had him working on his sinker. He threw 96 pitches last time out.
  17. bean5302
    I'm not debating whether Morris belongs in the rotation or the bullpen. I challenged the assertion Morris was "cooked" because he threw 28 pitches already. Then, when the OP's position changed to Morris would be better as a rotation guy because his stuff doesn't move, I challenged that logic. I have never believed Morris was being groomed for a middle reliever mop up guy since I don't think teams ever invest effort into grooming that worthless roster position. I think he's been viewed as short term injury replacement depth or possibly a #5 rotation arm, but it's entirely possible he could be the 26th man on a roster as a middle innings mop up guy.
  18. bean5302
    RNG Jesus giveth, RNG Jesus taketh away. Keaschall's xwOBA last year suggested he should have been about a league average hitter with xwOBA 39pts lower than actual. His expected performance last year also makes sense given his actual performance in AAA last year and AA the year prior. He's still inexperienced and the numbers will trend back up as he looks like he's now unlucky by 43pts of xwOBA. If we're talking about hard hit and barrel rates, Keaschall's right in line with the same percentages of MLB hitter as last year right now. 2025 2026 Keaschall is going to need to adapt. To become the kind of hitter people around here seem to think he can be, he'll need to make a lot of improvement at the plate, but it's very early yet this year. I don't consider a sample size under 200 to be very valuable.
  19. bean5302
    So the argument isn't that Morris was cooked because he threw too many pitches, it's that Morris was cooked because his stuff doesn't work in small sample sizes? Furthermore, because he doesn't have any good breaking/offspeed stuff, he would do better in a longer outing starting games in the rotation where he'd be dramatically more exposed? I'm not following that logic at all.
  20. bean5302
    Complete and utter waste of resources. SOP with Falzoll. There are other depth bullpen options at AAA. Choosing to gut the extremely thin depth in the rotation is asinine.
  21. bean5302
    Fixed that for ya.
  22. bean5302
    Morris is a starting pitcher who literally just moved to the 'pen a couple weeks ago. He threw 70 pitches in 3.0 innings on 4/12. He could have thrown 70+ pitches, no problem.
  23. bean5302
    It's worth considering San Diego city has a land area of 375 sq/mi. $108k median household income. Minneapolis and Saint Paul combined are 110 sq/mi. Compare to Hennepin county with a land area of 607 sq/mi. $95k median household income. Expendible income in the Twin Cities is probably higher, but property values are higher in San Diego (dramatically so). That said, the stadium is only leased by the Twins, not owned. The Twin Cities has plenty of expendable income. Need a product worth spending on. The Wild, for example, sell out despite dramatically higher priced attendance. The Vikings sell out. The Wolves and United are well attended, too.
  24. bean5302
    Houston's got the glove, but he's going to need to hit to make it to the big show. He's not going anywhere with a K rate nearly 30% in high-A, but he's got time yet this year to put things together. Speaking of all glove SS prospects, what happened to Noah Miller this year? Looks like it's unlikely to stay (not a single barrel, lots of pop ups), but fun to see. .324/.437/.465 OPS .902 wRC+ 143 in his first 87 PA with the Dodgers AAA organization.
  25. bean5302
    Yes, I reviewed defensive stats from the minors at SS over the past 3 years in the International league. The stats available aren't comprehensive. They're pretty rudimentary. Fielding percentage and RF/9. Kreidler graded out as good. Not exceptional. In 875 innings or so as a SS with Detroit AAA over the past 3 years, Kreidler manages about a .965 fielding percentage and 4.25 RF/9. The fielding percentage is not good, the RF/9 is good, but not great. Even professional scouts are terrible when it comes to the eye test when it comes to outfielder speed. Reviewing Kreidler's Baseball Savant page, it shows his sprint speed has dropped from barely 60 grade (28.2 ft/sec) in 2023 which is about the bare minimum for acceptable CF coverage down to 27.4 ft/sec last year. Continuing the trend suggests Kreidler is about league average when it comes to speed. He's not going to be a good CF. Outman can cover CF. Kreidler cannot. Neither should be on the roster.
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