bean5302

I think everybody is happy with the results Paddack has been getting. I'm over the moon with it, to be honest. It's just not going to stay that way. He's going to end the year with a 5.00 ERA or so.

Jenkins is out until at least June. There's been some coverage of it, but it's easy to miss since it's been a while. https://www.si.com/mlb/twins/minnesota-twins-news/twins-top-prospect-walker-jenkins-can-t-shake-nagging-ankle-injury

Noticed the Saints replaced Wallner in right field with Morales in the top of the 8th. A little concerning considering the Saints were down 10-4 so it's not like it was a hold the lead type of a defensive substitution. Camargo's right forearm strain is also concerning. I may not believe he's going to be an MLB caliber player, but it'd be no fun to see him end his season with a UCL injury. Hopefully, it's just a minor muscle strain issue that'll clear up fast. Baker continues to do well in AA, overall. Allowed a run in a labored 4th inning, but left the game after only 58 pitches. As a MiLB rule 5 pick, Baker is about as good as you might hope. Seems like there's a chance he could find his way into the bullpen even if a spot in the rotation seems a bit of a stretch. Doncon should be moved back up soon. It's clear he's wasting time in Ft. Myers at this point.

There are some exceptions like Joe Mauer, but I don't think "clutch" hitters are better because they take it up a notch or something. They're probably better because they slow it down and play normal. They take "professional hitter" type of at bats rather than trying to hit a 5 run home run, feeling the energy. Kirk Gibson's famous HR off Eckersley was just Gibson fouling off pitches away and holding off on pitches well outside until Eckersley made a mistake leaving a ball over the middle on the 7th pitch or so of the at bat. Eckersley famously hadn't allowed a HR in two months finishing runner up in the Cy Young to our own Frank Viola so Eckersley wasn't a guy to make a lot of mistakes. If the batter can stay focused, and unstressed as possible, they'll potentially have an advantage over a pitcher feeling the moment and being distracted. We saw that from Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa in the 2023 playoffs. It didn't always work, but Lewis and Correa were really the only hitters who made the Astros pitchers throw strikes as I recall. The rest of the lineup was taking tons of unprofessional, hectic at bats. Swinging away when they shouldn't have been, and it made it easy.

He's off on timing. Not sure if it will suddenly come back or not, but he's making a lot contact rather than striking out. The hit tool is there, but he's looking awkward so I have to wonder if he's healthy enough to be playing.

Using a single peripheral metric or even a couple can paint an inaccurate picture of potential regression because they all have flaws and outliers. ERA is king over multiple full seasons in my opinion. Paddack's ERA is 3.98 this year. It's 4.33 lifetime. On to some of the metrics. FIP and xFIP ignore batted ball data treating all batted balls (except home runs) the same, and all ballparks the same. In general, it works pretty well at a glance because "most" pitchers will be fairly accurate to these metrics. FIP thinks ground balls are the same as line drives and xFIP thinks an infield pop up at Great American Ballpark (Cincinatti) is the same as warning track fly balls at Oracle (San Fran). Paddack's FIP and xFIP are 4.64 and 4.96 while being at 4.09 and 4.02 lifetime. Metrics like SIERA look at the type of batted ball like pop up, line drive, grounder or fly ball, and adjusts for the ballpark factor. xERA takes detailed batted ball information like exit velocities, launch angles, etc. into account, but ignores the park factors. SIERA treats a 120mph 500ft towering home run the same as a 80mph soft fly ball. xERA treats T-Mobile (Seattle) like Coors Field (Denver) for batted balls. His SIERA and xERAs are 4.23 and 4.90. Lifetime 4.02 and 4.26, respectively. Then there are metrics like strikeout percentage and walk percentage. If a pitcher strikes a ton of guys out and doesn't walk anybody, they're going to be expected to be dominant as there will rarely be guys on base to do damage. 16.1% and 8.8% for Paddack is terrible for K rate and pretty poor for walk rate. K/9 and BB/9 are nice to glance at because they're easier to understand, but if tons of guys are getting on base, it dilutes the /9 rates down. Metrics like FIP, xFIP, SIERA, xERA, K/9, BB/9, K%, BB%, Exit Velocity and BABIP are all designed to replicate the "eye test" for the most part. Except an "eye test" which is totally unbiased and observes every single walk, strike out or batted ball for a pitcher. It's like circumstantial evidence in a case. When all the evidence corroborates a story, the chances the evidence is wrong is lower. Looking at metrics and using them as projection devices can be largely opinion based. Which metrics a person values or doesn't value, looking at the peripherals and adjusting the picture, adding the history of a player or changes to mechanics, etc to the equation. I guess... metrics turn people into professional scouts who can watch every single game, every pitch, every batted ball in a way. To me, folks who intentionally mislead about the value or lack of value of metrics are basically pointing to Ben Revere hitting a home run as proof he's a power hitter. There are also instances where the "eye test" can be argued against metrics. @chpettit19 watched a game or two where Mickey Gasper was the catcher in AAA and believes Gasper just looked like he was doing a poor job. With the limited metrics available, it looks like Gasper is "adequate" behind the dish. @chpettit19's eye test might be a lot more valuable than the metrics I can see because those metrics are so limited in that case, but he's also strongly personally biased in my opinion. YMMV on how valuable his accounting of events based on his eye test is or how valuable the limited data is in supporting Gasper's credibility as a potential depth catcher.

I don't think it's any revelation the Twins' depth at SS is non-existent. There's Carlos Correa and then a bunch of guys who have no business at the position, but have been asked to play it in recent years. Orlando Arcia is a defensive specialist at SS with a bat that has trended down in the last couple of years, but it hasn't been unplayable with any significant sample size considering his defense. At least not unless you track it all the way back to 2018. The only real SS the Twins have who is MLB-ready is Will Holland. Holland is great defensively by all accounts, but he's barely been able to hold his own at the plate in the minors until just recently. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/05/braves-dfa-orlando-arcia-activate-ronald-acuna-jr.html Would it be worth signing Arcia to a MiLB contract for depth protection with Correa being less reliable in recent seasons?

3 or 4 bad starts? 4.40 ERA good value? 0.5 WAR per season for a starter is not good. That's also not what the Twins paid for him. They also paid Taylor Rogers and Brent Rooker.

Paddack is Kevin Correia circa 2013 is what the article is saying, and it's dead on point. While guys can stay lucky for the entire year, it's not normal to see it happen. Paddack getting results is great for the Twins, and he's gotten it done several times when the Twins felt absolutely desperate. I don't expect this to continue, but I'd love to swap his contract for something at the trade deadline if we can pull it off, and our depth allows for it.

Bailey Ober's keeping runs off the board by generating tons of pop ups, and he generates those pop ups by staying in the zone. MLB batters make a lot of contact against Ober's pitches outside the zone, and batters have been hitting a lot of line drives off him this year. Both Ober's pitch and Duran's pitches were good. Ober set Fermin up with sweeper/slider upper-middle, then sweeper inside, then went to the changeup that moves 3B side, the opposite direction of his previous pitches at the bottom edge/ outer-middle of the zone. Ober would have probably liked it to be a little further outside by a couple inches to be perfect, but still good. Duran's threw 2 - 100mph fastballs that rise 12" and move inside towards the batter to paint the upper-inside corner with 2 strikes. The first strike swinging, the second strike foul. Now Fermin is on timing with the fastball. The last pitch was an 88mph knuckle curve down out of the strike zone down-middle, and the curve moves towards 1B away from the batter while dropping 2 feet more than his fastball. Duran wants the curve to look like a strike to get the swing at a pitch out of the zone with little chance of contact, but use the 12mph difference to generate either a foul if there is contact. Fermin was on the curve. Good pitch. A little lower would have been a great pitch. Throwing junk to the best hitters on the planet, and just hoping the catcher blocks it with a runner in scoring position? That's a bad pitch, even if it works.

I could have just pulled some random quote out of my backside and tried to pass it off as fact, I suppose. Instead, I took 2 minutes to look up some data and type it out. It'll help other people who are wondering why Adams isn't higher in the depth chart. FYI, just got in from taking the bike out for a test ride to make sure everything is in order after swapping in a new battery. It's nice out today!

I think he's got a lot of pitch options and his stuff moves pretty well, but not being able to have control of pitches feels like a mechanical issue to me. When guys are good, I think they can just rely on movement until they get into AA, and especially AAA. Seasoned hitters can lay off non-competitive pitches, even if they move really well, and a lot of guys at AAA have MLB experience. With Raya being unable to locate his pitches with any kind of regularity, he's not going to be successful at the MLB level. Kinda feels like Alcala, right?

It'll be even more interesting to see if he does well whether or not the Twins will logjam him behind a group of career MiLB roster filler guys.

Kody Clemens is really bringing some attention to himself. Must feel like a dream to a guy on the verge of washing out of MLB. His "average" exit velocity is 96.8mph right now which is basically at career best for Aaron Judge despite Clemens having like 55 grade power instead of 80 grade. Like every ball is being barreled, haha. None of this makes sense, but it is fun to watch.

Keirsey needs to be twice as good as the best center fielder to ever play the game to justify his roster spot...

The Tides came to swing.. at anything and everything. Raya was missing the entire strike zone map, and spiking pitches with regularity, but the Tides were still aggressive against him vs. just taking a ton of walks and crushing the forced mistakes. Luckily, Raya had professional catcher, Micky Gasper, behind the plate to block all the spiked pitches. Seriously, though, where is this power coming from? Gasper's never been a power threat in the minors, but he sure is making it known he can put a ball over the fence in AAA right now. Emma managed 3 walks, but his is how they were pitching him... By the way, Weston didn't have trouble hitting the strike zone against other batters I was reviewing, he was just throwing junk to Rodriguez. It's good for guys with elite stuff to have some hiccups, IMHO. Connor Prielipp and Dasan Hill have gotten reminded that every hitter can capitalize on a mistake this year.

Over-stretching is far more likely to result in a hammy pull than not stretching.

No, it doesn't, and no, Adams' numbers aren't better than Varlands. a24 - AA Adams - 108.0 IP, 3.67 ERA, 3.34 FIP, 3.58 xFIP, 9.08 K/9 (24.5%), 2.33 BB/9 (6.3%), 42.5% GB, 13.4% IFFB Varland - 105.0 IP, 3.34 ERA, 4.40 FIP, 4.30 xFIP, 10.20 K/9 (26.4%), 3.34 BB/9 (8.7%), 41.2% GB, 18.2% IFFB The numbers at age 24 were very similar between the two. Varland missed more bats, walked a few more, and generated more pop ups than Adams, but Adams allowed fewer fly balls. a24 - AAA Adams - 19.0 IP, 5.21 ERA, 6.46 FIP, 5.90 xFIP, 4.26 K/9 (11.4%), 3.32 BB/9 (8.9%), 50.0% GB, 21.7% IFFB Varland - 21.1 IP, 1.69 ERA, 2.29 FIP, 3.38 xFIP, 11.39 K/9 (32.1%), 1.27 BB/9 (3.6%), 35.3% GB, 22.7% IFFB No contest. Adams was virtually unplayable last year in AAA as he couldn't generate any swings and misses while generating only 1 good line for a starter in 4 attempts, though his last appearance was limited as he was out of the bullpen. Varland was lights out dominant. At age 25, Varland was almost immediately pitching for the MLB club, and holding his own until the scouting reports started getting out. You're allowed to have your favorite players and just decide they're going to be great, but don't come to a factual debate only armed with feelings.

Lewis wasn't remotely close to ready when the Twins called him up. Given how much of ST he missed and how long he was out, it's pretty clear he should have undergone a long rehab starting off at the lower levels. Anyway, here we are. Lewis is my favorite player on the team, but I'm not sure what to do about the issues at this point. The grabbing at the hamstring and keeping him in the game during at bats is inexcusable. I can't fault Lewis for being careful, and I'm not sure how far away he is from being near 100% or getting his timing back, but he's making a lot of adjustments. Maybe it all comes together tomorrow or maybe it never comes together. Wallner is on record as saying he was ready to be back with the team months earlier than the Twins called his number again. I don't want that to be the case with Royce.

Many people are more concerned with him striking out 33% and walking 5% since we're dealing with just a 23.0 inning sample size. Both are outstanding. The elevated BABIP against and his propensity to give up the gopher ball are not currently concerning me because of the sample size.

He wasn't showing as much XBH power earlier this year, but the ISO has been tracking up recently. The strikeouts have tracked up with the increased power production, too, though. I'm sure he'll be in AA before the end of the year at this pace, but he didn't even have 150 PA post draft last year. There's been plenty to work on. Playing a half a season at AA would still be moving up quick.

Adams doesn't profile as a likely MLB rotation option. He doesn't strike a ton of guys out, and he doesn't have a truly elite ground ball rate. Exit velos for Adams at AAA this year are 90.3mph which probably becomes 91-92mph at the MLB level. He projects more like a somewhat lower ceiling version of Louis Varland.

I do not understand Keirsey's continued presence in the lineup now that Castro is back. Wallner can't return soon enough.

To be blunt. Who cares about the defense of Winkel or Camargo if they have a .100/.125/.125 OPS .250, 5% BB, 60% K line at the plate at the MLB level? Fighting over which of the two players is a -3.5 WAR vs a -3.0 WAR player at the MLB level isn't a game I'm interested in playing.

Raya was doing well in 5-6 inning appearances last year, but that was in AA, and he wasn't actually dominant, just good. He's now in AAA and burning MLB options on the 40 man. The stuff that was working in AA has seemingly hit a wall versus more seasoned hitters. Raya's last outing featured non-competitive pitching with him frequently missing far outside the zone, sometimes failing to get a pitch anywhere near a strike 80%+ of the time. Regardless of how good a pitcher's stuff is, even AAA hitters aren't going to swing at stuff a foot out of the zone. Six pitches is great, if a guy can throw them. Raya can't hit the strike zone with any regularity this year. Correlation is not causation. Starters are far more valuable than relievers and it's rare for a team to draft a "relief pitcher" because there is nothing to fall back on if things don't pan out. Starters who get injured or can't handle the workload or don't have the stuff to succeed at higher levels move into the bullpen. Starting is harder on pitchers and more likely to lead to injuries and breakdown.