bean5302

Yeah, well, I think not adjusting WAR for innings pitched is intentionally manipulative. Top 100? Is that what makes stud pitchers? Where are the Cy Youngs for Jordan Balazovic and Josh Winder? OHHHHH THERE AREN'T ANY. Lets give all our guys participation trophies. That's what's important in the Also Ran league. Also, there's no chance in hell I'm using bWAR for a pitcher in the modern era. Their current methodology is total junk. I'm not really a fan of fWAR's "what should have happened" stuff, but at least I can back into it to make sense.

Jenkins is out until at least the end of May. Continuing ankle soreness. He got a cortisone shot a couple days ago.

Gen Alpha apparently hates Ohio. Ohio skibidi toilet, etc. Whatever. I agree with them after this insane rainout series. Guess it gives Royce Lewis a couple extra days to rest without him trying to overdo it. Scary about Dasan Hill. Calling his start to the season impressive is a major understatement. The quick glance coverage of the MiLB action is awesome!

The more I think about it, the more it would have been fun for the Twins to start Dobnak for this game. Dobber vs. Dobber on the mound.

It was a bit cathartic. You compared Falvey's Twins system to the success they had in Cleveland. They're not comparable. #4-5 pitchers grow on trees in the offseason.

Twins career, starts 5.0+ innings, ERA 3.99 or less. Bundy, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, Lopez, SWR, Festa, Matthews 61% 57% 54% 52% 45% <-- Dylan Bundy 44% 38% 33%

I don't think anybody has worked harder or been more successful in changing their repertoire than Joe Ryan. He pushes out major changes to his arsenal every year, and the changes are usually a little better than what he had before, but every year, it seems like the scouting reports catch up to the changes by mid season. 1st Half vs. 2nd Half ERA 2022 - 2.99 vs. 4.14 2023 - 3.70 vs. 6.09 2024 - 3.21 vs. 4.88

Twins have some of the lowest ticket prices in MLB. It's not the cost. It's the product (game day experience).

Pardon me if I'm not on the one back end starter developed in the past 8 years is a real accomplishment train. Bailey Ober, a #4 starter looking out over the precipice of sustainability. End of the story. That's all the established rotation success the front office has in draft/development across Falvey's entire tenure. SWR? We traded the best pitcher drafted/developed by the Twins since Brad Radke to get him, but SWR was already in AA 4 years ago. Joe Ryan? We got him MLB-ready. The only ace caliber pitcher we've had is Sonny Gray, who we acquired for our #1 draft pick, and then we let walk after winning our first playoff game in 20 years. Want to compare to Cleveland and what they put into the rotation? Trevor Bauer (Cy Young). Shane Bieber (Cy Young), Corey Kluber (2x Cy Young), Tanner Bibee (future Cy?). Now, Cleveland didn't draft/develop all these guys, but they all got established in Cleveland. Okay, Joe Ryan dark horse Cy Young can be compared here, then. Yeah, that Joe Ryan with his 3.1 fWAR career high. About 1/2 what a Cy Young winner actually produces. Festa? Yeah, he looks like he might pan out as a back end guy. Matthews? He got clobbered in his only MLB experience and he's getting smoked again in AAA. Matthews has okay stuff, and the velo helps his stuff play up. Sounds an awful lot like Louis Varland, eh? It's great to look at starting pitching prospects and exclaim how amazing they're going to be in a year or two. It's tradition here at TD. All the Twins mediocre ceiling starters are a guaranteed Cy Young waiting to happen. Jhoan Duran <-- bullpen Brusdar Graterol <-- bullpen, traded Cade Povich <-- traded Chase Petty <-- traded Tyler Wells <-- lost in rule 5, probably bullpen Kohl Stewart <-- washed out Landon Leach <-- washed out Josh Winder <-- washed out Jordan Balazovic <-- washed out Stephen Gonsalves <-- washed out Lewis Thorpe <-- washed out Fernando Romero <-- washed out Tyler Jay <-- washed out Chris Vallimont <-- washed out Blayne Enlow <-- washed out Matt Canterino <--- This guy is a perfect example. He's got 30 innings at AA like 4 years ago where he walked 6 batters per 9 innings, and the fans are still hung up on him. Cue the next group of guaranteed studs (chance of being an MLB starter) depth like Morris (5%), Lewis (1%), Culpepper (5%), Raya (1%), Adams (0%). Then, harder to quantify/further away we have Dasan Hill, Charlee Soto, and Connor Prielipp. Living the dream down there of future Cy Youngs in the making. Just like every other MLB team fan base, except those fan bases have probably all been more successful than the Twins, who were better at drafting/developing pitching under Terry Ryan than Derek Falvey.

Clemens, Keirsey, Funderburk, Adams, Camargo, Bride... it's not hard to find some low hanging fruit on the team.

Sure. Might be as many as 13 games. You're right.

A rebuild? As it stands, this team has under a 10% chance for winning the division right now and we're setting records for poor attendance. The farm has a bunch of talent which is either scouted as mediocre or injured absolutely just all. the. time. Like all the time. Does it matter if the Twins lose 90 games or 95? They're already bad, and if this continues to the deadline, just how much worse is the team if they "rebuild?" What positions are we confident will deliver 3+ WAR this season? Maybe Buxton depending on how much time he spends on the IL? In the rotation, probably Lopez? Ryan and Ober combined have done it once in their careers. The term "rebuild" gets tossed around here like somebody yelling "shark!!! shark!!!!" at a popular children's beach in Florida trying to scare the crap out of people whenever some fan favorite (read: any player with more than 1 successful year on the team) has their name mentioned as a potential trade chip to fix this broken franchise. This Twins team looks very much like a team that needs a rebuild, and the only surplus value the Twins look to have is in the pitching staff.

Alcala had a 3.24 ERA last year, dude. In his only other full season, he was also solid. He's got 12 appearances this year. While he's not getting results, it's pretty clear his "stuff" isn't the issue. Obviously struggling with location, but unlike a guy like Varland, Alcala doesn't give up a ton of hard contact and exit velocities.

Fair vs. not fair is the problem. Society has changed a lot in terms of what is and is not acceptable. A lot. Look no further than Tommy Lasorda and how his attitude and style was accepted by the players and the league in his final years. In the 80s and 90s, managers could still get away with getting physical with players during angry disputes.

Tom Kelly's management style from the 80s and 90s would never work today so he'd really have to change his approach and communication style with the players who he famously pretty much hazed if he didn't like somebody. It seems like he regrets being so harsh when you read his retrospectives. Attitudes and communication styles have changed a lot since the 1990s in general People change along with them. https://www.twincities.com/2012/09/05/former-twins-manager-tom-kelly-i-took-the-game-of-baseball-very-personal/ Kelly would also have to change his approach to the game and coaching in general or the Front Office would can him. https://shamasportsheadliners.com/kelly-iffy-on-managing-in-2018-baseball/

If there's no fixing him, I'd rather he succeed elsewhere. If he can rebuild some value, I'd like to see it happen. Low leverage only at this point, though. With a quick hook, too.

Yeah, would have ended the inning 1-1. Tough not to find fault with that play by Julien. The long standing conventional technique would be to lean over and field the ball on the run or dive for the stop because it prevents the ball from getting past the fielder, period. Julien's technique, that I've seen him use many times, is to knee slide while fielding. It puts him in a bad position to view the ground ball and at what seems like an awkward angle to field it, but it's kind of a combo move. It provides him with a somewhat better chance of stopping the ball from going into the outfield if he mishandles it (didn't work here) than fielding the ball on the run, and it provides him with a faster throw than a full dive. Devers was out by a mile even if Julien dove. Bad instincts, bad technique, bad situational awareness in this case. Does the fault lie with Julien or the Twins' coaches for having Julien use that technique?

Alcala needs to be off the MLB roster. I don't think he's tradable anymore, and with his stuff, I'm hesitant to DFA him and watch him turn into the next Yennier Cano.

Rankings from 15-30 are pretty much interchangeable. It's not like there's a huge difference between them as they're all long shots to be valuable at the MLB level. Adams' average exit velocity is near 90mph in AAA, and he doesn't miss bats so that's a big problem. It's not going to get better at MLB, and I think Lewis has a higher likelihood of his pitches working out of the bullpen than Adams does as Lewis misses bats at a higher rate so there's less damage from hard hit balls to begin with. Neither one of them is going to be an MLB starter nor are either one of them likely going to be a dominant reliever. Cory Lewis is ranked higher by Fangraphs, MLB, Prospects1500, too so if you're surprised with my rankings because you feel strongly Travis Adams should be higher, you could always vent some rage at the entire collective MLB scouting base :)

Ricardo Olivar, yes. 33% split between LF/C/DH. Not sure why he's not catching more. Jeferson Morales, no. Hasn't caught a single game. I'd swap Olivar (AAA) with Camargo (AA), and release Cartaya soon or send him to Ft. Myers to work on his stuff and maybe rebuild some confidence. Cartaya wasn't good at AAA for the Dodgers, but he was never like this. Not sure why people are so obsessed with tanking Prielipp's value, but it sure seems like a trend here.

Sure do! Lets take a look at them, though. Mickey Gasper has a 1.417 OPS at St. Paul. Let's get that MVP candidate up here!!!! Oh... wait. Austin Martin, .978! Then again... IL and we know what Austin Martin isn't (good.) Well, maybe that Anthony Prato guy! .978 OPS! Oh... but, I think we're all pretty sure he's not going to keep that up and he's probably a MiLB journeyman type, though, honestly, maybe he's not worse (or much better) than one of our waiver wire type guys we picked up recently? When a .750 OPS is pretty much league average, an .800 OPS in the minors isn't all that impressive, though I'd absolutely 100% fast track Patrick Winkel to get a look at him and hope this is a big bounce back year for him so we can DFA/release Vazquez mid season.

Just doing the quick update since not everybody wants to sit through a 1hr podcast. Keaschall is 6-8 weeks. Rodriguez is day to day, not yet on IL. Jenkins' ankle is still sore, got a cortisone shot. Won't be back until at least end of May. Charlee Soto hitting the IL with triceps strain. Not expected to be too long.

Tigers. No question about it. I will root against the Dodgers if they're playing anybody.

I don't think the Twins' system is short on talent, but it seems everybody on the list has big red flags. The top end talent is a bit questionable.

This is how I voted: 1 Luke Keaschall Looks totally legit at the MLB level from a production and tools standpoint. 2 Walker Jenkins Injury prone, excellent hit tool, average power w/o room to fill out, corner OF 3 Connor Prielipp Elite stuff, injury risk, control/command issues. Bullpen risk, but #1 starter potential. 4 Charlie Soto Looks dominant in A+ already, multiple potential plus pitches, seems durable. 5 Dasan Hill 4 pitch lefty, dominant out of the gate A-ball a19. Sky's the limit. Building a floor. 6 Kyle DeBarge Hit/Power tools look good at A+, defensive results at SS dramatically improved. 7 Kaelyn Culpepper Hit tool great at the plate, limited power. Better at SS than expected. Could advance fast. 8 Emmanuel Rodriguez Power tool not playing against polished pitchers. Injury prone. High risk. 9 Marco Raya Good stuff, weak command, likely bullpen arm due to durability concerns. 10 Andrew Morris High velo, but can't miss bats. Back end rotation ceiling, probable BP. 11 Carson McCusker Huge power, but questionable contact/hit tool. Defensive liability in corner OF. 12 Brandon Winokur All the athleticism, but bat may not play. 13 Payton Eeles Great story and good hit tool. Below average power. Questions defensively. 14 Cory Lewis Middle relief ceiling. 15 Gabriel Gonzalez Bat keeps improving, but limited overall ceiling/athleticism. 16 Ricardo Olivar Twins desperate for catching, hampering progress with OF. No power, all hit tool in AA 17 Rayne Doncon Good, not great tools across the board. 18 CJ Culpepper No plus pitches so far, but looks like potentially a back end rotation piece. 19 Eduardo Beltre Huge ceiling, but DSL numbers are sketchy to project. 20 Daiber De Los Santos Billed as premium SS defense with great tools. Super young, but could pan out.