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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    That's the worst idea possible IMHO. Ober's at the edge of sustainability right now with his 90mph fastball, and Ryan's value is the highest it's ever been. Both of those pitchers will be 30 next year and the Twins still have 2.5 years of team control. Trading 6 years of Festa or Matthews to keep 2.5 years of increasingly pricy Ober or Ryan who bring double the return at the moment? Either Falvey's development pipeline exists or it doesn't.
  2. bean5302
    Paddack has negative value. Trading him sounds fine, but the Twins could only expect to get a little salary relief back or maybe a 40 man roster burden guy.
  3. bean5302
    Duran has the highest velo in MLB. His "diminished" velocity is the same as it was in his rookie season and last year. I can see it now. Duran throws a 103mph fastball some game this year. Next game, he only hits 101. TD writers recap "Jhoan Duran's decreased velocity, and how he learned how to pitch with this crippling disability."
  4. bean5302
    Top 30?? ROFL, this site...
  5. bean5302
    Baseballtradevalues recently: Joe Ryan +68 Pablo Lopez +47 Bailey Ober +54 Simeon Woods Richardson +20 Chris Paddack -2 I'd prefer trading Ober as I don't think he's going to age as well as Ryan, but the Twins' rotational depth isn't nearly as strong as people seem to think. Matthews has dropped velo and is struggling recently. Raya needs to be moved to the 'pen. There rest of the AAA rotation is just not good enough to be in an MLB rotation. As far as the Orioles go, they're hosed already. 7.5 games back from the division and only a 7.2% playoff chance. They're 10 games under .500. One starter isn't going to fix that. Bradish is 2nd half at the earliest and Rodriguez isn't coming back any time soon since he's on the 60 day IL.
  6. bean5302
    Here, I've made a chart which more accurately shows a timeline of how Miranda has performed using xwOBA in 10 game samples and his career with an MLB average line. The sustained dip from 120-160 games was when Miranda was playing with the shoulder injury which required surgery at the end of 2023.
  7. bean5302
    I think it's clear with this front office and manager, both Julien and Miranda are pretty done with the Twins. To add some perspective to the chart in the article, but it's still a bad chart as it doesn't reflect time very well because of all the non-baseball months being smashed into it.
  8. bean5302
    I'm not concerned about anything in here. Varland is a middle reliever, Stewart's sample size is impossibly small and Jax has proven he's got the stuff. Bader is a defensive specialist with a questionable bat, and that's why he took a $6MM deal. I'm not counting on his bat carrying the team.
  9. bean5302
    Arraez's career xBA is .302. He knows exactly how to make the most of his swing.
  10. bean5302
    Sabato is a non-prospect, but he looked just as good as Amick out of the gate. @Cody Schoenmann the reason you're taking so much flak is the SSS with a .500 BABIP and .105 ISO. Adjusting the BABIP down to a still aggressive .350, and the number of HBP from 6 to 2 (about the top 10% in MLB last year and add 1 BB to make up for the loss of 4 HBP)Amick's numbers drop to .237/.364/.342 OPS .706 wRC+ 100-ish. If we take the BABIP down to a more reasonable .300, we get to .203/.333/.308 OPS .641 wRC+ 80-ish. You're being way too aggressive on Amick's projections based on the outlier metrics and the SSS.
  11. bean5302
    100 plate appearances is not nearly enough to warrant a call up. It wasn't for Brooks Lee last year when he utterly tanked at the MLB level, and it's not enough for McCusker to prove he's ready. He was average at the plate last year in AAA, and he was very raw for a high minors prospect when Twins brought him in out of Indy ball. The intensity of the judgement of player value based on SSSS around here is a little much. It's like being at the early season Wild games listening to fans screaming "shoot it!" every time a Wild player gets to the blue line. I'd expect these are the same fans are the ones who were screaming for Mickey Gasper and DaShawn Keirsey to get their chance to start on the 26 man throughout Spring Training.
  12. bean5302
    ...and if Martin was hiding his underlying soreness or issues re-aggravating his hamstring is on him. If the hamstring was truly 100%, it makes no sense to see it strained again like this. Obviously, this is totally speculatory, but it wouldn't surprise me the hamstring was feeling a bit of a twinge or was "tight" and Martin was pushing hard to get an opportunity to be back with the club. Similarly, there's a history of Royce Lewis pushing to get back onto the field to the point trainers and medical staff have started to ignore what Lewis says. I have serious reservations about the qualifications of the Twins' medical staff and trainers at this point. These injuries are happening way, way, way too frequently. Either the staff is medically incompetent or they're not competent in their communication style. All that aside, Martin is a replacement level player. He's got about a 1.0 WAR ceiling on him.
  13. bean5302
    Amick aside, Thomason is hitting well this year despite struggling a bit at same level last year. A late round senior college pick struggling in lower A ball last year was going to put him off the radar. As a late round senior pick, Thomason is old in age and experience for a legit prospect in the FSL, though you'd have to expect he'll be promoted quickly if he continues to perform. 100 plate appearances is nothing, but Thomason has been consistently productive this year.
  14. bean5302
    No he's not better than Aaron Sabato. a22 A+, Amick vs. Sabato .342/.475/.447 OPS .922 wRC+ 168 15.2% BB, 26.3% K, .105 ISO, .500 BABIP vs. .253/.402/.613 OPS 1.015 wRC+ 166 19.6% BB, 33.0% K, .360 ISO, .297 BABIP
  15. bean5302
    LOL, what?? I think it'd be fair to disclose any close personal relationships to Amick here, man.
  16. bean5302
    I can't agree with that. I hate watching robotic, spreadsheet games. Hate them with a passion because the games are boring. Also the accuracy rate for MLB umpires is about 94% with the majority of the "missed" calls being missed by a fraction of an inch. The run value differential represents the situation when the "missed call" was made, and the pitcher's reputation and movement of that pitcher's repertoire has as much to do with "catcher framing" as the catcher themselves. Right now, 28 teams in MLB are at a +/- 0.1 runs per game. Complaining about umpiring to me is like when the Vikings lose a game 9-0 and fans complain about a blown holding penalty in the 2nd quarter when the Vikings were at their own 36 yard line. If your team doesn't play well enough to overcome a 0.1 run disadvantage, they didn't play well enough to win; they just left it up to a coin flip.
  17. bean5302
    I'd prefer giving him one thing at a time. Work on his plate discipline and keep hitting. Working him out at 1B over the offseason? Sure, if there is potential value there. The Twins are short on good outfield options next year. Larnach is not a great option and Bader and Castro are highly likely to be free agents leaving only Buxton and Wallner as likely starters on the roster. McCusker gets scouted poorly in the outfield, but it's very hard to use the "eye test" on big guys like Wallner and McCusker because their size makes them look more awkward than they are. In terms of RF/9, McCusker's metrics look pretty solid. The data doesn't care if the pitcher has a weird delivery or the fielder's legs don't churn as fast.
  18. bean5302
    Hopefully, Correa is figuring things out. His line is improving, but it's been mostly singles on high BABIP, and he hasn't taken a single walk in the past 10 games. Barreling up that home run was definitely nice to see.
  19. bean5302
    I'd be surprised if Keirsey was on the 26 man at the end of the month. Dedicating a roster spot to a good, but not great, pinch runner and defensive replacement isn't optimal.
  20. bean5302
    Have you seen his BABIP? It's consistently super high. Then I looked at his line drive rates... Consistently an astronomical 30% the past 2 seasons. The high K rate is generally associated with a very poor AVG/OBP, but if McCusker is able to hit 25%+ line drives at the MLB level, his OBP is going to stay over .300. Not sure what to make of him, but some experience and success can see big drop offs in K rates after a couple years. Jeffers was at 37% K in his first full season, now at 17%. Larnach down from 35% to 19%, and Rooker from 33% to 25%. With how much progress McCusker has made already, I think it's possible he could take another step forward in plate discipline. If he keeps it up through May, he needs to get a call.
  21. bean5302
    He's super rusty. Missed a lot of ST, he wasn't hitting in AAA, but the Twins called him up anyway. We'll have to see how he gets everything put together, but if the organization is committed to keeping him up, it'll likely be a week or two.
  22. bean5302
    I find his line last year in low-A unimpressive for a 2nd round all bat college hitter, he's still in the low minors, his BABIP is .500 and his ISO is a very poor .105.
  23. bean5302
    Matthews was sitting at 97-99 through ST and into the start of the AAA season. He was at 95-96 on Sunday. Could just be a sensor, but given the walks and hits, it's eye opening.
  24. bean5302
    This is what I see. Not sure if that's what you see, but the formatting should be fixed.
  25. bean5302
    No he hasn't. Lewis had a severe quad strain last year out of the gate. It wasn't hamstring related. 2021 - Torn ACL 2022 - Torn ACL 2023 - Oblique Strain 2023 - Hamstring Strain 2023 - Quad Strain 2024 - Quad Strain 2024 - Hip adductor Strain 2025 - Hamstring Strain The dual ACL reconstructions resulted in a weakening of all the muscles, tendons and ligaments in Lewis' leg. Doctors told him he'd be especially susceptible to additional strains in his leg, and that subsequent strains before he fully recovers would continue to slow the process of fully healing and strengthening his leg. The hip and quad strains are much more severe than the hamstring issue, but I do feel like the trainers have some issues at this point. Like... it's a bit much at this point. The constant aggravation to his soft leg tissue robbed him of a ton of his athleticism last year. I don't know as I believe Lewis could ever be healthy at this point, but if he can make it a few months without another lower body injury, maybe the cycle could be broken?
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