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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Yeah, I think DFA / Release for Alcala. I've defended him enough this year, but he just won't listen to coaches and get his mechanics in order to throw strikes. No idea where the ball is headed.
  2. bean5302
    Twins pretty much back to full health at this point. Exciting!
  3. bean5302
    Raya's K rate isn't bad, but it's not really impressive since Cedar Rapids, either. I doubt he'd K more than 18-20% of hitters at the MLB level.
  4. bean5302
    ...and yet the good 'ol blackout policies still remain. The Twins were the free game of the day recently. Decided I would tune in, but nope, blacked out without me having the special subscription. F-MLB's television policies to hell. Forever.
  5. bean5302
    Inning 1 - 18 2 - 17 3 - 10 4 - 11 5 - 11 6 - 15 7 - 11
  6. bean5302
    It is different. The broadcast just shows a 2D box while I think Gameday considers the 3D strike zone. I don't hold any of the above calls against the ump at all. Unless a ball is more than 1/2 way in or out of the zone, it's just too small of an error to really care about. Keep in mind, a baseball is less than 3" in diameter.
  7. bean5302
    Nope. That ship has sailed. The Twins called him up too quickly before he was ready and he struggled with rust and trying to adapt to MLB caliber pitching right out of the gate. Lewis has been getting better and better. The last few games, Lewis has been making good contact and hitting the ball hard. He's really getting close at this point, just needs a few of those hard hits to go over the fence rather than being robbed and a couple of those near miss pop ups to be line drives as his launch angles improve. Demoting him at this point is probably just wasting him as he's starting to get strong signals he's ready. Send him down, watch him immediately OPS 1.500 in AAA for 2 weeks to call him back up would be awfully annoying.
  8. bean5302
    Didn't get squeezed. My comment above. Fans will be fans and remember everything they don't agree with, but rarely think about good calls. Umpiring in MLB has gotten better and better.
  9. bean5302
    It's great to see Buxton and Correa on the ball after coming back from concussions!
  10. bean5302
    Went back and looked at every single pitch thrown by Matthews in the GameDay Boxscore. There was one pitche where I'd need to have blown the image up to see whether or not they caught the slightest hair of the strike zone which was called a ball, and three strikes which were called "balls" on the extreme corner catching maybe 1/4"-1/2" of the zone. Here is every single call the ump "missed" or might have missed where there were over a dozen pitches which were literally on the line that the ump correctly called a strike. The ump appeared to be excellent to me.
  11. bean5302
    Miranda at least has the injury excuse to fall back on as he was playing hurt to end last year and the hand sprain and rust could have slowed him out of the gate in AAA, but at least he's shown some signs of life as of late. Julien... there's not much excuse for him at this point. Time to move him, I guess, though I don't think he has any real trade value. I just don't see any upside for him in the Twins' system. He's broken at this point. I think the Twins should send him down further to try and regain his swing. It's a brutal move, but he's not going to succeed at AAA. All the K's and absolutely no power.
  12. bean5302
    I don't think they "need" to bring in this depth, but they feel they might have potentially identified a market where they can produce value. Guys like Eeles, Dobnak, McCusker, etc. have produced talent which has impressed at least at the upper minors levels with no real investment. With drafted players through round 10 getting at least $187k in terms of "slot," Indy leagues represent a pool of semi-proven talent for dirt cheap where the Twins might be able to strike gold.
  13. bean5302
    In regard to the Twins and my thoughts on their playoff chances, I just have no idea with this team. The pitching is going to regress a lot. Fangraphs has the team projected at 86 wins right now, and that's rarely enough to make the playoffs. What typically happens is a few teams make a second half run as they bolster while some weaker teams sell off. I don't anticipate the Twins making any significant changes at the deadline at all. The team won't be under new ownership by then. So much of what happens with the Twins depends on other teams both inside and outside of the division. I'd give the Twins a 40% shot maybe?
  14. bean5302
    BaseballReference's latest formulas for WAR are a mystery to me. They don't seem to follow any obvious logic so I don't trust them much at this point, but I'm pretty sure you'll find your answer there. BBRef doesn't believe in the Twins' production because of their underlying run generation formulas.
  15. bean5302
    Not even close. Not even remotely in the ballpark. You want to get real? Festa + Matthews + Jenkins + Keaschall + Prielipp Something like that would be fair-ish from a value standpoint. Skenes is +126 in BTV right now, and typically, you pay a little more of a premium when you're sending multiple players for a single great one. Jenkins is probably overrated at +65 Festa, Matthews and Keaschall were each around +20 with Prielipp as a +5-10ish.
  16. bean5302
    That's great. If he can trust the players to manage themselves, I guess all he does is fill out lineup sheets. Seems like the Twins can improve their books a little by getting Baldelli off of them?
  17. bean5302
    Probably a few things going on with Lewis. Lewis didn't just hit well for 1/2 a year. He was a monster. He was hitting breaking balls, fastballs and covering a ton of the strike zone. The one year wonder guys almost always do it off pure luck despite glaring weaknesses. The Danny Santana's of the world, rocking their .400 BABIP despite 50% ground ball rates. Royce Lewis began that way in 2023, but within a few weeks, Lewis was even better and earning it. His health and potential mechanics are the issues. He's going to be elite when he's on the field and healthy. Not sure that will happen a whole lot, but Lewis didn't get his success through the batters equivalent smoke and mirrors. I assume the above comment about two players treated differently are Eddie Julien and Royce Lewis. Julien always had glaring weaknesses against breaking pitches and major portions of the plate. Julien was always following a razor thin path in terms of sustainability, and he's going to need to make major adjustments to his approach in order to succeed. He's also going to need to believe in the process.
  18. bean5302
    I don't know as I agree with our first rounders being injury prone in general under Falvey. 2017 - Royce Lewis (Yes) 2017 - Brent Rooker (No) 2018 - Trevor Larnach (No, but started off as a yes in MLB) 2019 - Keoni Cavaco (No) 2020 - Aaron Sabato (No) 2021 - Chase Petty (No) 2021 - Noah Miller (No) 2022 - Brooks Lee (Yes) 2023 - Walker Jenkins (Yes) 2024 - Charlee Soto (No) 2024 - Kaelyn Culpepper (No)
  19. bean5302
    That's an understatement. They're considered one of the weakest teams to have ever won a World Series. I'm not saying the 1987 Twins team was great, just that a bunch of good luck and unexpectedly great seasons all together can result in a championship. Just not something anybody should expect. Now the 1991 team was great. It also relied on a bunch of career years together. Tapani, Erickson, Morris, Aguilera, Mack, Knoblauch, etc etc etc.
  20. bean5302
    Watching how Jenkins is impacted in terms of athleticism going forward will be important. This is the second season in a row where he's missed 3 months of training/working out with a leg injury. Royce Lewis was once blistering fast, now he can barely outrun anybody. Jenkins really needs to find a way to stay healthy.
  21. bean5302
    That "debt" is not guaranteed. It hasn't been earned yet so it's not debt. Trade, death, retirement, violations of player conduct, etc. can all void those potential future expenses. Ohtani would be a different story as he has earned some of the contract which is deferred, but those deferrals were likely pre-funded. The debt in this case, as was mentioned above, includes other Pohlad Company investments and businesses where loans were taken against the Twins. It's not like businesses (and people) don't do this kind of stuff all the time so I don't get the rage in the comment further above, but it's a major sticking point because the Pohlads want to roll the debt into the purchase which adds $425MM to the real cost of the team. Like trading in a car which has a bunch of negative equity, but the the owner wants full trade in value and for the dealer to pay the loan off.
  22. bean5302
    Hrbek, Gagne, Brunansky, Puckett, Viola, Berenguer all had the best or close to the best years of their careers. I think you're way overestimating the talent level of this rotation based on recency bias.
  23. bean5302
    MiLB contract = not rostered.
  24. bean5302
    Eeles played 27 games at SS last year.
  25. bean5302
    Gabriel Gonzalez fell way down the prospect list last year where he was hobbled up quite a bit. It's true that he's clearly chunked up a ton from the 165lbs he was listed at (doubt he's under 215 now and at 5'11" listed), but there are plenty of of slow or poor corner outfielders who thrive on contact rather than game power like ahem, Trevor Larnach or Alex Kirilloff did. Gonzalez's hot start at AA is very highly encouraging. It's great for him and the Twins. What I see from his plate appearances was okay yesterday. First at bat, double right on the first pitch in the upper/away part of the zone. Second at bat, 3 pitches real close to the same location, 2 fouls, and another double. Third at bat, promptly plunked. Fourth at bat was the interesting one. Pitches 2, 3 and 7 were all pretty close to his earlier doubles. You can see the at bat should have ended on pitch 5 with a strikeout looking, but he kept the plate appearance alive for another couple pitches pulling off a single. Final at bat was first pitch for ball 1 (caught the low/away corner, should have been a strike), then promptly swung at and singled on a pitch pretty much in the exact location as his single from the previous at bat. Not sure why the pitchers are working Gonzalez so hard on the far side of the zone, but they were really pounding it there yesterday. Gonzalez has so far shown good plate discipline in AA in a very limited sample size. He's limited in ceiling due to his conditioning, and I do find it concerning to be struggling with condition at his age, but I think it's more of a yellow flag than a red one.
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