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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    He may never find his way into the big show again. That's true. If he does, it's going to be because his bat looks like it will play. I don't think it's something which is going to be justified based on his ability to stand at different positions on the field is my point.
  2. bean5302
    Not panicked. He's at AAA for a repeat in his 3rd season. Elite HS draft picks generally make the big show in 2-3 years. He's still on track. The constant injuries are a bit concerning. The ceiling feels capped based on his swing type and power as a result, but it's early on.
  3. bean5302
    Atrocious, huh? Lets pretend that statement is accurate. Why would the Twins even welcome an atrocious hitter in the lineup? DH is worth 2.0 WAR less than 3B in a full season. 1B is worth 1.5 WAR less than 3B in a full season. RF and LF is worth 1.0 WAR less than 3B in a full season. It would be nonsensical to have a hitter who is so bad they can't be used at 3B regularly receive plate appearances while holding down a negative value defensive position. There is only 1 position in baseball where it's potentially worthwhile to pencil an atrocious hitter into the lineup. The argument Royce Lewis is a defensive catcher on par with the best catchers in the league is so obviously ludicrous I'm assuming you're certainly not implying that. Or maybe shortstop? It's not great to have an "atrocious" hitter at SS, but the Twins made due with Brooks Lee and Andrelton Simmons in seasons recent enough to remember. It's a stretch to have an atrocius hitter play there, though, unless they're like, Ozzie Smith. I'd also be shocked if you had the opinion Lewis would be such a gifted fielder there now that his decline in quickness and speed would likely be severe limitations on his range. Simply put, your argument doesn't make any sense. In order for positional flexibility to add to a players value, they have to hit well enough to justify penciling them into the lineup on a regular basis at negative value defensive positions OR they need to be exceptional defenders at premium positions. If Lewis doesn't hit well enough to justify playing him at 3B, he doesn't hit well enough to have him on the roster, period.
  4. bean5302
    Banda's latest changes don't have much sample size, especially given all the changes. Not just to the leg lift, but also to the pitch types and the velos the last two outings. It seems like this is the kitchen sink approach as he's on the edges of his MLB career ending.
  5. bean5302
    I don't think it's reasonable to ignore everything in pink to focus only on his ERA for two seasons with the Dodgers. Banda was fringey when he was young and in his prime. 2024 is honestly the outlier. That's the only season where he got solid results AND his results were largely expected. 2018, where he pitched 14.2 innings, was the only other time his results and expected results were acceptable for a bullpen piece.
  6. bean5302
    per baseballcube, 2017 1st round draft. https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/draft_year/2017/ 1. 4.6 fWAR. That's a success. Not a home run, but a success. 2. 10.2 fWAR. 3. 9.1 fWAR 4. Fail 5. 1.9 fWAR 6. Fail 7. 1.4 fWAR 8. Fail 9. 2.0 fWAR 10. Fail 11. 4.8 fWAR 12. 4.2 fWAR 13. 10.6 fWAR 14. Fail 15. Fail 16. 5.3 fWAR 17. Fail 18. Fail 19. 3.3 fWAR 20. 9.5 fWAR 21. 1.5 fWAR 22. Fail 23. Fail 24. 8.2 fWAR 25. Fail 26. Fail 27. Fail 28. Fail 29. Fail 30. Fail 31. 10.5 fWAR 32. Fail 33. Fail 34. Fail 35. 8.7 fWAR - Brent Rooker 36. Fail Lewis has superior value over 26 of the 36 first rounders. 72nd percentile so far. Fail is anything under 1.0 career fWAR
  7. bean5302
    As I recall, the expectation was Emma was only going to be out a couple weeks so he wouldn't need surgery, and he was set to return from the IL when he aggravated the injury. That could have been one of the 56x he's hurt hurt his thumb sliding, though.
  8. bean5302
    I think that proposal honestly hides the underlying cause we're seeing so many injuries by encouraging potentially bad practices to continue, and I think it favors the big money teams who can afford to stash MLB-caliber talent at the top of the minors.
  9. bean5302
    I'm not sure what the intent of the article was, maybe just entertaining reading, which I think it is. I'm wishing Jax all the best, and I'm hoping he's successful in his return to starting bid, and that the return continues to bear fruit long term despite recent flash in the pan results we've seen in MLB. The thing I took away was the Twins could have converted Jax a couple years ago and reaped the rewards. It's a bummer the Twins weren't willing to do so when they had a need for starting pitching, but that's the choice Falvey made. In regard to the trade, I don't think it's reasonable to take much away from it. Taj Bradley was uncoachable in Tampa and he wouldn't have been successful without the wake up call being traded to Minnesota gave him. This is similar to how SWR got his wake up call after the 2023 season watching everybody else pass him on the depth charts as his clock was ticking, and SWR was approaching DFA candidate status.
  10. bean5302
    As far as moving Lewis around the field now that he's looking adequate defensively? Sure. That makes sense (lots of sarcasm). This article is more like an angry writer seeking revenge for having been wronged by Lewis not being a superstar. Lets haze him!!!! Garbage writing.
  11. bean5302
    Where does the need to create and propagate this utterly false narrative come from? Lewis came up as a SS. He was told he was going to play multiple positions when the Twins signed Correa in 2022. Lewis went out and played CF as requested. In 2023, Lewis was told he was going to be the Twins starting SS. Correa got re-signed and Lewis was told he was going to move to 3B. No tantrums. No complaints. He played 3B. In 2024, Lewis was asked about 2B and he said learning the position on the fly while injured, in a slump, in a playoff chase scared him a little. He didn't refuse to play 2B. In fact, he did play 2B. For whatever reason, a substantial contingent of fans on this site just have to create false context around any trepidation a player has about any change. It honestly disgusts me. Same BS that Max Kepler refused to play CF. Never in his career did Kepler say he wouldn't play CF. He preferred right field. That's not "I refuse to play CF." But not to fans here. Amazing the fans didn't lose their mind when Griffin Jax wanted to try starting again. OMG, he refuses to pitch out the bullpen!!!!!!!!!!!!! It's just such BS. Rafael Devers refused to play 1B for the Red Sox. That's what a refusal looks like.
  12. bean5302
    It's the opposite of "missing 90 days." To count for a full season, they just have to be on an active roster for 90+ days. Basically, if the player is active 90 days in a season, they get a full season. I think the 7 day IL still counts against the "active roster" Emma was added to the 60 day IL on 7/23. If that was retroactive to 6/9, the Twins probably get a 4th option year. If the move wasn't retroactive, I don't think they do. I couldn't find any notes about the IL trip being retroactive.
  13. bean5302
    Judge has 3 right field home runs this year, 6 if you count the center field homers which are to the right field side of dead center. He has 17 on the season. @jkcarew please provide me with the source for easy lookup. In the top 30 HR hitters, Woods looks to be the only guy with more opposite field home runs than pulled home runs. Of course, I didn't get out the protractor for Bryce Haper and Sal Stewart who are spray hitters/center field homer guys. Look at the hits spray charts. Don't even look at the name or the bats R/L. 90% of the time, you can tell whether a hitter bats right or left just by the heat map. 5% of the time, they're a switch hitter. If it makes you feel better to argue semantics, I suppose?
  14. bean5302
    Lewis needs to do more than punish AAA pitchers. He needs to punish them in a way which demonstrates he can do more than hit mistakes. His approach needs to be better, and he needs to stabilize that approach. I wouldn't call him back up until mid June. He needs to form the habit of making better decisions at the plate, and he needs to better understand the gravity of making bad decisions (not playing in the big show.) Lewis is my favorite player. I want him to get his swagger back, his confidence, and to stop being so panicked at the plate. If that happens, I think he'll be at least All Star worthy, and could be a big face of the franchise. The guy has crazy charisma, and this team desperately, desperately needs a fan favorite like him.
  15. bean5302
    I looked at that last year, and it seems like he's been active enough. I think this is his last option year.
  16. bean5302
    Nobody hits oppo tacos at the MLB level anymore, dude. Nobody. It virtually never happens because of pitch velocity and swing design needed to counteract the increased velocity. In any case, I agree with you that Lewis' plate approach is the key. Stop swinging at junk is his #1 directive. Show he can catch up to mid 90s fastballs on the outside edges of the plate is #2. Make contact on stuff outside the zone is #3.
  17. bean5302
    Seems like Brian Dozier hit about 100 career home runs at 350 feet. Target Field left-corner is 339, left-center is 377.
  18. bean5302
    This is his final option year and the Twins haven't believed in him enough to give him a single plate appearance at the MLB level. That speaks volumes. Like an entire old school set of Encyclopedia Britannica worth of volumes. The walk rate is great, but I haven't noticed him having some exceptional eye at the plate as he swing at a lot of stuff out of the zone. It seems the MiLB scouting report is throw him junk and you'll probably get him out, but if you mess up and throw him a meatball, he'll hurt you. Emma has absolutely lousy contact rates which is another thing. If he's so great at pitch identification, he shouldn't be a windmill out there. O-Contact is an abysmal 33% this year in AAA. Z-Contact isn't good at 77%. Eddie Julien looks like Tony Gwynn compared to Emma. I think Rodriguez has done everything he could to get himself a long look at the MLB level, but there are 2 problems. One, he very clearly doesn't know how to slide into a base. It's mind boggling how a guy can wreck his thumb once a month because, I guess, he must use this thumb as a braking device for his whole body. Two, the Twins' front office has so many questionable talents on the team, but are apparently trying to win the team, cannot afford to put a potential AAAA talent into the lineup every day even if struggling for a couple hundred plate appearances. In short, he's got the power, he's got the athleticism and speed to play a premium defensive position, but he's incredibly injury prone, and I don't think he'll make enough contact at the MLB level to produce.
  19. bean5302
    No it's not elite, even if Twins Daily writers want to declare him to be the next coming of Ozzie Smith. There's nothing I can find in Kreidlers recent history to suggest he's anything more than adequate.
  20. bean5302
    I think his work to change his approach this offseason has messed up his timing. He hit a couple bombs, but his approach in the first 3 plate appearances was trash. 2 of first 3 PA came against Cole Ragans who just overwhelmed Royce. Lewis has struggled to catch up to fastballs. That's not the end of the world. Buxton looked washed for the first couple months of last year against fastballs, too. It happens, but Lewis has just been desperately hacking away at everything. He's got to learn to take what he's given.
  21. bean5302
    I can't agree with your take at all. Skubal's ruling showed the following. 1. Player performance in Arb2 season directly correlates with Arb3 salary. 2. What the player is currently making is irrelevant. The CBA had the provision that free agency value is supposed to be considered in the final year of arbitration. Arbiters proved they cared about free agency value, and not the salary the player was earning. The Tigers submitted a $19MM figure for Skubal, which was a $9MM jump and nearly double what he was previously making. Huge increases already. It's about the precedent in the contract negotiation. There's no way arbiters can make a ruling like they did with Skubal and say it only applies to the best pitcher in the game. Only 1 player in the game gets to follow this new precedent. This precedent will even be used for Trevor Larnach. It changes everything.
  22. bean5302
    First, Culpepper taking Cole Ragans deep on a "good" first pitch is way more impressive than Royce sending two bombs against a MiLB roster filler type guy. Second, Royce's results were impressive, but the approach shows the problem he's been having. He's missing on fastballs. PA1 - three straight fastballs 1. Okay to take. 2. Missed on a meatball. 3. Popped up a pretty hittable pitch. PA2 - Bad bad. Swinging at everything. 7 pitches, only 1 was a strike, swing at 5 of them. Struck out on a slider in the dirt. PA3 - Home run, but behind on fastballs again, which is a big problem he's had this year. PA4 - Okay! Here's what he needs to do. Not swinging at trash, punishing a hanging curve. PA5 - YES. Please more of this. Not swinging at trash, take what pitchers give you. So honestly, only the last 2 PA for Lewis were good, and Williams is MiLB roster filler while Cerantola is a cut above that, probably has the ability to be a plus reliever in the big show.
  23. bean5302
    Way too much emphasis being placed on Buxton's remaining 2 months of full no trade clause. I believe he will 100% waive it to go to a team he likes if he thinks the Twins are going to rebuild. Starting 11/1/2026, Buxton no longer has a full NTC. He has to submit a list of 5 teams to which he could be traded with no approval necessary. Also, while fans on this site love Buxton, he's a very polarizing players across the whole of Twins territory. His long injury history combined with the big contract mean he's also disliked by a lot of people. It's worth noting history suggests fans will just find a new favorite player after their favorite guy is traded, retires or leaves for free agency. While it's not the popular opinion, it's one supported by attendance over and over again. Fans attend games and spend money for the team and the overall opinion of the franchise direction, not the name on the jersey. Attendance went UP after Kirby Puckett retired. Attendance went UP after Joe Mauer retired. Attendance went UP after BOTH Torii Hunter left and Johan Santana was traded. The Twins' problems aren't impacted by moving Buxton or Ryan or anybody else they could move on this team. It's a bottom of the barrel fan experience right now. The Pohlads have misread the situation. Fans hate them and aren't even willing to give them a chance at this point, and I don't think even if they boosted spending to $150MM+ that fans would buy in for them. I don't see how the Pohlads can win fans back. A new owner instantly changes a lot, but they'll have to spend to get fans on board expecting a new experience.
  24. bean5302
    I'm not sure what talent people are talking about. Trade value for virtually all our guys is suspect. BBTV has paywalled their site down so hard I no longer use it at all, but I'd say Buxton is probably about a +30 value at this point. Joe Ryan's value is highly questionable at this point due to Skubal's Arb3 ruling. Ryan is probably in line for a $20MM pay day through arbitration if he remains healthy. As a 3 WAR kind of pitcher, maybe 4 WAR for a desperate partner, his surplus value would be hamstrung quite a bit. Maybe +25 at this point? Not trading him last year was the biggest mistake this front office has ever made, IMHO. Ober's tough to gauge. I don't think his results will continue as the league adjusts to his new methodology. Ryan Jeffers may be worth more because of his injury TBH. Keeping up that outstanding wRC+ 166 production line would be unbelievable given his one outlier season capped at wRC+ 136 and his career wRC+ 112. Jeffers is looking like a totally transformed hitter at this point in his age 29 season, and teams may be willing to bite on that. The hamate bone surgery has about a 100% success rate so I think teams will be all aboard. Still, he's a rental, and if traded this year, he's ineligible for a QO. His value is going to be fairly limited. Josh Bell is a DFA / release candidate. Not a trade candidate. He's at -0.4 fWAR right now.
  25. bean5302
    Man, I wish some of you guys could be GM for a day (not of the Twins) so I could watch you absolutely ruin a franchise in under 2 weeks, LOL
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