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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I mean... they sorta changed managers. Shelton is widely regarded as Baldelli v2.0. Honestly, Falzoll has failed miserably when it comes to tender/trade opportunities on a consistent basis. The Twins have been stuck with players they really shouldn't have wanted on the roster at the price they cost vs. other depth options who could have replaced them. Kepler, Polanco, Farmer, Larnach, it really doesn't end. Same 'ol, same 'ol.
  2. bean5302
    Except they're not. Outman making the team is pretty much proof of that. The guys the Twins cut were MiLB contract guys with invites. That stuff happens every year.
  3. bean5302
    Bowman hasn't been a full season guy on a roster since 2017. Doesn't strike anybody out, walks a lot of hitters. His spring training looked good so he might get a chance some place or he might wind up back in St. Paul on a MiLB contract.
  4. bean5302
    The quality of the depth may be poor, but there's plenty of it. The Twins have 1/2 a dozen options they could call on to cover 3B in a pinch if Royce Lewis hits as poorly as Brooks Lee is going to hit.
  5. bean5302
    You can literally say that for pretty much every starting position on the field.
  6. bean5302
    Roden was optioned this evening so Outman is a virtual guarantee. The 13th roster spot for position players is probably going to come down to Martin vs Gray.
  7. bean5302
    The same Marek Houston who made Ryan Kreidler look like a legitimate MVP candidate last year? .152/.220/.239 OPS .459 in Cedar Rapids (low minors) Marek Houston? Royce Lewis at SS is better than Brooks Lee at SS, IMHO. Btw, Brooks Lee isn't exactly tearing it up in ST, though he does have a lucky .341 BABIP helping him out.
  8. bean5302
    Funderburk had some outstanding results a couple years ago, too. His debut was more than just simply dominant. He was in a different league striking out over 40% of batters (14.25 K/9) while allowing just 1 run across 12 innings. All memory of his 2023 debut was quickly erased in 2024 where Funderburk's Achillies heel surfaced. He's been unable to hit the broad side of a barn and while getting MLB hitters to chase great stuff is possible, getting them to chase terrible pitches, even with great movement, is almost impossible. I don't have any faith in Funderburk.
  9. bean5302
    It's physics. It's based on physical and mathematical laws, not 2 pitchers. The 2 pitchers were used as an example. I'm more impressed with Driveline's published findings based on mathematical law than your personal opinion so I'll stick with Driveline.
  10. bean5302
    Driveline's article talks about it. Basically, there are ways to get efficiency from throwing motions. Longer levers (arms) require more torque/power to accelerate them, but that's offset by higher relative velocity (same throwing motion over the same amount of time for a long arm means the hand/baseball is traveling faster). There's also an inherent PERCEIVED velocity as the taller the pitcher is, the longer their legs and arms and the closer to the plate they can be when they release the ball (extension). It doesn't make the ball travel any faster, it just makes it feel faster.
  11. bean5302
    Definitely no change in philosophy. There have been plenty of MiLB contracts handed out to former veterans with ST invites where the players didn't make the roster in recent years. Nothing to see here. A change in philosophy would be DFA'ing an MLB contract player who was performing poorly in spring training.
  12. bean5302
    I don't know. I'm fine with Abel vs. Matthews going to Abel. 88mph Bailey Ober is still as good or better than Chris Paddack.
  13. bean5302
    Right, the REAL problem is Brooks Lee should be the guy we're talking about as the backup, utility infielder. The Twins had to work hard to find guys who will make Lee look like a starter.
  14. bean5302
    No, the point is tall pitchers don't have any major inherent advantage in velo. It is NOT a significant advantage in achieving velocity. I even linked you to Driveline's analysis and gave you examples of short (6'0") pitchers near the top of the MLB starting pitcher leaderboards. If you'd like to provide some credible source which conflicts with Driveline's analysis, please feel free.
  15. bean5302
    Kriedler's bat disqualifies from him any MLB team's roster. Literally the kind of hitter you'd expect to see promoted directly from Cedar Rapids. It's insane any team would consider him. At all. There is no amount of defense which could ever justify putting a Twins jersey on him. I cannot fathom the move to even give Kriedler an invite. Arcia is probably fine to start with as a backup. The Twins can get a feel for Culpepper in AAA for the first couple months while Arcia plays well enough as a backup utility guy. If Arcia is hitting absolutely unbearable after the first month or two, you just release him.
  16. bean5302
    Lewis has a 12.5% barrel rate. He's hitting balls hard enough, they're just finding gloves.
  17. bean5302
    Hendriks may have been trending better in velo, but better still wasn't good, and he's appeared in seven games at this point. His last appearance was against Boston. 1.0 IP, 2 BBs, 2 Hits, with 3 hard hit batted balls in play. Unlike your traditional ST player, Hendriks was playing for a roster spot. He had to bring his A game. With pedestrian swinging strike rates, poor chase rates, struggles throwing strikes and diminished velo, I guess the Twins saw enough to tell Hendriks he was not going to make opening day. I'm sure Hendriks asked for his release as a formality and the Twins granted it.
  18. bean5302
    Royce Lewis at 88.4mph average exit velo is fine, just not great. He's got a 12.5% barrel rate and a 37.5% hard hit rate with a ridiculous .045 BABIP. Calls for him to be optioned aren't warranted. Keeping Outman despite making mostly poor contact with lots and lots of Ks, plus his history doesn't make sense to me. Even in Outman's rookie year which was good, the expected metrics suggested it was mostly luck. Emma's going to be burning his 3rd option now without a single PA at the MLB level. I don't believe in his success at the MLB level, but keeping Outman over him and seeing what you've got? These are NOT the kinds of moves a team expecting to be competitive makes. Too bad Hendriks just don't have it. What a rough way to end his career :( Keeping Urshela? Like... REALLY???????
  19. bean5302
    You can look at all of Emma's previous ST's too. 2024 was 24 PA and a 54.2% K rate. He's very likely gonna K 50% at the MLB level. I also think you're right the Twins need to play him (or trade him). This is Emma's last option year.
  20. bean5302
    Next time you go to a stadium with a speed pitch game, find a random tall person and ask them to throw their hardest. If they can't hit at least 93mph, ridicule them relentlessly. Throwing 93 is hard. Really hard. Height doesn't really matter for pitch velocity. https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2016/06/pitcher-height-comparison-velocity-elbow-injuries-mechanics/?srsltid=AfmBOoqgTETs-R370YXnhYSyaF0RbGa9luPkj78aukaPq5fpi9u5PUbm Luzardo is 6'0" and averaged 96.4mph on his fastball last year. Skubal is 6'3" and averaged 97.7mph. There's a higher ratio of pitchers who are in that 6'6" range at the top of the chart, but just in general, MLB teams look for tall guys as starters now.
  21. bean5302
    Ober's in a lot of trouble right now. Obviously, ST stats are clean because players are working on things. That's how a guy like Mickey Gasper rocks 1.000 OPS' in Spring Training, after all. Coupled with the drop in velo, there are some glaring concerns. That chase rate is not playable. 22.6% O-Swing and 85.7% O-Contact says Ober's not fooling anybody at all. He's being forced to work in the zone more despite not getting the first pitch over for a strike. If that's just a function of him working on stuff, which it shouldn't be for a veteran like him, then fine. If it's Ober's real stuff, he's absolutely cooked as a starter.
  22. bean5302
    What I've read is things were "collaborative" which had led to me believing Zoll's opinions were highly valuable when Falvey agreed with them. Falvey feels like the type of guy who hires a yes man or brown noser who has an echo chamber for feedback. Just my feel for things.
  23. bean5302
    Joe Mauer was a first ballot HoF'er for a reason. His hit tool was 80. Excellent eye at the plate and pitch recognition and a line drive approach fit him best. Even in the twilight of his career, Mauer's average exit veloicty was 90+mph. Max exit velos look to have been about 108mph. Jenkins seems to have more raw power than Mauer did based on that 110mph exit velo, and he hit 107 in Spring Training. It's totally unfair to compare Jenkins to Mauer, btw. They're not even remotely close to the same hitter. We'll get a much better feel for who Jenkins is as a hitter with the improved metrics available at the AAA level, I expect. There's no question Walker Jenkins is going to be in MLB, it's a question of when. Given how inexperienced he is, and how his body could change as he ages into his 20s will clarify his true ceiling. Also, whether he's truly fit to cover CF vs. the corners will have a big impact.
  24. bean5302
    Emma is going to strikeout 50% at the MLB level. If the power shows up. .150/.250/.400 OPS .650 with a 10% BB and 50% K rate. wRC+ 80ish. He'll near or hit 300 strikeouts in a full season.
  25. bean5302
    Fedko's a non-prospect, but he had a great performance at AA last year, and Kala'i Rosario is fringey so I think the Twins probably just wanted to get a closer look at them to see if anything's been overlooked. I don't believe either had even a 1% shot at making the 40 man, but this spring invite may have influenced how the team will view them throughout the year even if they put up good seasons. Schobel's a comp-B pick from 2022, with a slow promotion cycle (not sure why the article think he's been challenged by the Twins... just challenged to hit). Promotion, struggle, repeat, looks better in his 2nd or 3rd go 'round. Also a borderline non-prospect at this point entering his age 25 season. He really needs to shine this year quickly in AAA if he ever wants to have his number called.
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