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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Winokur is going to look awkward. He's super tall and lanky which is going to make his movement look slow and awkward as his stride length and speed will be dramatically different from your typical 6'0" SS. Being 6'6" tall means he's going to need to stay very low so he can overcome the leverage his height will have in inertia. I'm glad to see everybody at TD has already slotted every SS prospect in as a future MVP and all that, but it's pretty rare to see them work out in reality. Especially with a team that doesn't know how to coach fundamental defense.
  2. bean5302
    Willi Castro can stand at a lot of positions. Doesn't mean he can effectively play them. He's also struggled against lefties throughout his career. He's above average as a hitter, but really he only hits well as a lefty in his good seasons (he had an elevated ISO this past year against lefties which makes his 100PA sample size look good)
  3. bean5302
    A.I. response? I'm only asking because if a player is drafted and signed, they're almost guaranteed to be playing in the minors at some point and the variance between 17.6% and 10.0% is impossible as a result.
  4. bean5302
    Then no team should have a hitting coach by this kind of position. They don't matter. The hitting coach plays a fundamental role in aligning the organizational philosophy and talent with an action plan to get the most out of the talent. I think Popkins did exactly what Falvey asked of him, then he was essentially fired because the front office's hypothesis was poor. Not saying Popkins was the greatest ever or something, but he's certainly chucking eggs all over the faces of the Twins' management.
  5. bean5302
    Why are Twins fans like this? Bichette was drafted as a 2B. Bichette continued to play a little 2B in the minors. Bichette didn't get thrown under the bus by the Blue Jays. Lewis had never played on the 2B side of the field, and for the record, Lewis DID play 2B when he was assigned the position. He didn't say he wouldn't play 2B. Max Kepler didn't say he wouldn't play CF. I just don't get why TD posters need to make this stuff up.
  6. bean5302
    I tend to look at things this way. Teams probably need to find 2-3 every day 26-man roster players per year to stay competitive, and the majority of that needs to come from the draft.
  7. bean5302
    I've gotten this question a lot when I review Twins drafts. When it comes to answering how the Twins fare vs other organizations, many hundreds of hours of work is the answer. Unless there is a tool out there (should be proprietary versions for MLB organizations at least) https://community.fangraphs.com/success-rate-of-mlb-first-round-draft-picks-by-slot/ https://www.researchgate.net/publication/358010336_Major_League_Draft_WARs_An_Analysis_of_Wins_Above_Replacement_in_Player_Selection
  8. bean5302
    We'll give him honorary "Life Most Destroyed" by playing for the Twins. Honestly, Nishioka's experience was truly brutal. Fall from stardom, marriage fell apart, lack of manager support, horribly injured early in his time on a dirty play and spent the rest of his time in the minors. He forefitted the rest of his contract in shame for having not held up his end of the bargain and slinked back to Japan.
  9. bean5302
    Leo Cardenas 1969-1971 (3.0yrs) = 10.9 fWAR, 11.1 bWAR Carlos Correa 2022-2025 (3.5yrs) = 10.8* fWAR, 10.4bWAR *added 0.2 fWAR for 2025 consistent with bWAR ratio of season WAR for Twins vs. Astros
  10. bean5302
    Everything depends on strategy. I don't really trust Falvey can build an effective one. Quotes from owner representative Joe Pohlad suggest there could be a rebuild coming in which case, yes, Joe Ryan 100% SHOULD be traded for whatever the team can get, not just "made available" On the other hand, ownership statements carry absolutely zero credibility now. It was already weak since the Pohlads just simply will not do their job and hold the front office accountable. Nobody in professional gets the kind of leash Falvey has gotten. It's absolutely ludicrous a GM/President of Baseball Operations or whatever the heck you want to call him can be given so many resources, so much support, so much inherited talent and then produce nothing noteworthy year in and year out in what has been the weakest division in the game for a decade. If Ryan is traded, the trade needs to happen in December so Falvey doesn't screw it up yet again by overpricing, then waiting too long before finding himself out of suitors who can really pay. I don't think Falvey has the talent for his position so I believe ownership will need to provide him a specific deadline to move Ryan or Falvey absolutely will fail again like he did with other valuable, controllable, established talent like Dozier, Kepler and Polanco. The risk of holding onto Ryan into camp reporting date is gargantuan.
  11. bean5302
    I'd agree he looked like he was starting to regain his swagger. His sprint speed still being 45 grade instead of 70 grade on the season suggests he's not quite all back yet. It's going to take a great offseason and hopefully his confidence will come back. It takes a while after injuries like that (or even smaller ones) before the confidence in your body returns.
  12. bean5302
    The fact Falvey wasn't able to quell concerns about ownership is a problem. Managers shouldn't be reporting to owners.
  13. bean5302
    Cardenas was good to great for the 3 years he played for the Twins, and he had 2 other years in his 16 year career where he was good. Other than those sporadic seasons, he wasn't really starting caliber.
  14. bean5302
    Using things like FIP or xFIP to predict a pitcher's future performance without history supporting the correlation is a bit dangerous. Not all pitchers perform up to or down to the advanced metrics. Brandon Pfaadt is what appears to be becoming a messy example. Matthews' barrel rate is way too high and he struggles with hard contact like Varland struggled as a starter. I'm also concerned with Matthew's ability to stay healthy after adding so much velocity. Just have to see how he evolves, I think. There's certainly upside, but there's definitely work to be done as well.
  15. bean5302
    Spotrac says 2yrs $14MM, but I'm not sure a team will go 2 years on him right now. The bigger question to me is... why? Hoskins has a ceiling of what, like 1.5 WAR at this point? Why not just give Larnach a glove for 1yr and $5MM?
  16. bean5302
    Hunter declining to continue the discussion is a huge red flag against Falvey. No ifs ands or buts. Hunter interviewed with the Angels and he's clearly interested in managing, even for a team in a perpetual mess situation like the Angels. Hunter's just not interested in working for Falvey. The only way you turn down an opportunity even before you can get an offer is when the hiring manager presents a a basket-load of "absolute nope" during the initial discussions.
  17. bean5302
    I think there's an issue with the front office and management at play here. Lewis has clearly been unhappy for a while. If you don't believe your employer has your back and best interests at heart, wouldn't you be resistent to their input? Buy-in is critical, and nobody gets buy-in from their employees without making it clear how the adjustments are going to benefit the employee. Lewis' comments have suggested to me he doesn't trust the team, and he doesn't believe they're putting him in a spot to be successful. It reads like he's turtling up to protect his own future. In regard to who he is, I think a lot of what Royce will be able to do depends on whether or not he's finally able to put those ACLs and leg injuries behind him. Where he's not playing hurt or scared of aggravating injuries at the plate or on the base paths.
  18. bean5302
    Rooker only got 200 PA with the Twins, and 85% of pitcher innings are against RHP. The only season Rooker got a significant look with Minnesota was 2021. vs. RHP - .684 OPS vs. LHP - .695 OPS Like Rooker, it's not about Wallner's numbers. It's about how he got his results, and identifying major weaknesses in his game. Like Rooker, Wallner does not have a consistent weakness to certain pitches which can be exploited. You know, 2strikes = slider, guaranteed strike 3 (Sano). Wallner also covers the plate well enough despite the seemingly consistent criticism on the site. There are very few hitters in MLB who don't have 3 below average sectors in the 9 sector strike zone. Wallner is not Eduoard Julien or Miguel Sano. I also feel it's odd to see the criticism of Rooker and Wallner while I'm far less likely to read the same kind of feelings towards Larnach. Larnach's career year was 2024, and in that career year (only season he's generated more than 0.7 fWAR, he produced 1.4 fWAR to tie Matt Wallner's 2025...)
  19. bean5302
    Best is awfully subjective here. Correa has no more post-season heroics than Gagne so I'm not sure why Correa gets extra credit here. Gagne OPS'd 1.187 vs. Detroit in 1987. He's a big reason the Twins advanced to the World Series. Zoilo Versalles had the best single season with Smalley's 1978 after that. I guess "best" to me is the shortstop the Twins could count on year in and year out to be a solid every day player or better. 2.0+ WAR. Using fWAR. Tiebreaker = consecutive seasons 2.0+ fWAR, then best single season, I'm not counting trade seasons. Gagne 4x (50%, excluding the 30 PA total in '83-'84) Smalley 3x (38%) Cardenas 3x (100%) Versalles 3x (43%) Bartlett 2x (67%) Correa 2x (67%) Polanco 2x (29%, excludes 20 PA total in '14-'15, and '23 where he was 2B)
  20. bean5302
    I'm pretty confident Wallner is the next Rooker. He was better with runners on than bases empty last year, and pitchers absolutely pitched around him because most of the Twins lineup was useless. Wallner will rebound. The level of hate for Wallner on this site reminds me a lot of the negative comments about Rooker back in the day... and the complete unwillingness for the haters to accept they were absolutely dead wrong after that. Being right on the internet is critically important to the ego, you know, haha.
  21. bean5302
    In order to rebound, they needed to have been good to begin with. The .275/.330/.475 line isn't impossible but it would absolutely be shocking. Lee's career xBA is .245 since he doesn't hit a lot of line drives and he's not quick enough to generate infield hits on the tons of balls he pounds into the ground with his "geared for power" swing. Assuming Lee's Max EV is reflective of his raw power, he might have 50 grade power with his game power probably being more like 40. A 200 ISO (top 20% of all MLB hitters) isn't something you generally see without 60+ grade power for a poor runner like Lee. .275 AVG (top 20% in baseball, accomplished by heavily reducing grounders from 44% to 35% and converting them into line drives from 20% to 25% and fly balls 29% to 33% and adding 2 ft/sec to his sprint speed) .330 OBP (increase BB% by 33% from 6% to 8%) .475 SLG (top 20% in baseball, accomplished by increasing swing speed from 70mph to 75mph) No problem. Easy off season regimen.
  22. bean5302
    Wallner was better with runners on base than bases empty. .195/.291/.471 OPS .761 wRC+ 109 bases empty .217/.348/.452 OPS .800 wRC+ 124 runners on .177/.329/.323 OPS .652 wRC+ 89 RISP when it came to RISP, Wallner got junk to hit because pitchers were afraid of him and pretty much nobody else in the Twins' lineup. Wallner walked 17.7% of the time with just a 24.1% K rate Wallner had a whopping 79 PA with RISP last year. Just 35 PA with high leverage. The negative narratives TD posters spin up about him just never hold up to scrutiny.
  23. bean5302
    Missing from this article is the familiar 2nd half performance drop for Joe Ryan. 4.67 ERA, 4.59 FIP, though his xFIP remained extremely consistent throughout the season. 3.70 first half, 3.69 second half. Ryan didn't earn his super sparkly ERA in the first half, but he didn't earn the rough ERA in the second half either. A reason to non-tender him? Something happens which will prevent him from pitching prior to arbitration due date. Barring such an unexpected catastrophe, he must be tendered. Joe Ryan has cemented himself as a back end #2 type starter, I think.
  24. bean5302
    Prielipp had TJ. The surgery wasn't successful and the Twins drafted him out of college during Prielipp's initial recovery period. He had to have a followup UCL procedure early. Once he recovered, he's been reliable while being stretched out. He's been on the 7 day IL one time in the past two years because of a blister. I don't know where people come up with their impressions on his health. He made 23 MiLB starts last year and would have probably made more if the Twins weren't being extra careful with his work buildup. Prielipp's last start was 6.0 innings. Starters are 3x more valuable than relievers, and about 5x more rare. Putting him the 'pen just because the Twins are weak on the bullpen is a waste.
  25. bean5302
    I see some comments about how Torii Hunter was a great resource for Royce Lewis. I guess that doesn't move the needle much for me since I'm not all that impressed with Royce's production. Love Royce Lewis, but if you're going to use a reference, at least use a successful one.
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