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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    My biggest issue is he may very well not have the stuff. Lower minors hitters will chase 45 grade MLB stuff. Upper 90s velo alone is often good enough to get a pitcher through A+. AA sees an adjustment to that, and AAA hitters spit on a lot of bad pitches more aggressive, less experienced players try to force into play. It's hard to tell if a pitcher actually has "stuff" or if the hitters just aren't polished enough at the level so they're too aggressive chasing pitches which are easy for high end talent to lay off.
  2. bean5302
    3 singles, 2 walks and honestly an fielding error on Tristan Gray which allowed the 4th run to score on what should have been an inning ending double play. The announcer says it wasn't well played by Bradley because he didn't look back the runner at 3rd, but that was a guaranteed double play if Gray is actually in position or ready to field the ball. Gray with another fielding error leading to a run in the 6th. With a decent fielder out there, Bradley leaves with 6.0 innings and 3ER. Laweryson threw 7 of his first 8 pitches as fastballs and the White Sox jumped on them. His 6th pitch he served up an 83mph meatball changeup which got quickly deposited in the seats. Not gonna make it throwing 80% fastballs in this league. All that said, the Twins made Fedde look pretty good. The White Sox scattered 5 hits and a walk, and last time I checked, 0 runs doesn't win many games.
  3. bean5302
    Not sure what the Twins have Dasan Hill working on, but regularly walking 20-30%+ of hitters in A+ suggests he'll be absolutely annihilated at AA and AAA. There are 290 pitchers in A+ this year with 20.0+ innings pitched. He would be, literally, the WORST walk rate pitcher in the entire Northwest League. Dasan Hill's walk rate is the 13th worst at that level (bottom 5%).
  4. bean5302
    Josh Bell is in decline based on his historical pattern. His actual results this year are close to what you'd expect. Based on a 20% quintile Excellent/Good/Average/Below Average/Poor 1-5 scale, whatever you want to call it red/pink/gray/lt blue/blue. Red/pink gives way to pink/blue. His walk rates have declined, his power has declined, exit velos... all the signs are there. Doesn't mean he won't rebound a little in production, but considering he hasn't had actual results much above MLB average since 2022, I think it's a little optimistic to expect much from him.
  5. bean5302
    Martin was never going to sustain a 20.0% walk rate or a .387 BABIP given the thin line drive rates. Things are just regressing to where they should be. His xwOBA and actual OBA are right in line with each other now. Just have to see if he can sustain the overall line now or if it'll fade a bit more back to where it was in 2024. Just like Brooks Lee's xwOBA which is a dismal .272 suggests he's in for a world of regression. It takes 300 PA or so before things really get to a sample size large enough to feel some comfort. Lee's production through 225 is surprising considering the limitations in his plate approach and batted ball data.
  6. bean5302
    Too small of a sample size to take anything away from it. He only had 52 PA vs. lefties, and there are reasons to look at his big results vs. lefties as unsustainable.
  7. bean5302
    Morris results: Wild pitch. Single (Lee playing deep with a runner on 3rd... like why?) Strikeout Wild pitch Strikeout Hit by pitch I mean... Lee playing deep with nobody out and runners at 2nd and 3rd doesn't feel right to me, but 20/20 hindsight, I guess. The runner is out at first with nobody advancing worst case scenario there if Lee is playing the bag, and there's the potential throw out at home. Runner probably scores on Morris' second wild pitch anyway. In the end, Twins win!
  8. bean5302
    Simeon Woods Richardson isn't "only 25 years old." This is his 9th season of professional baseball. He's beyond his minor league control, and beyond all his MLB options. This isn't some college draft pick who had a setback in their first exposure to MLB. He doesn't miss bats when hitters swing, and hitters only swing when the pitch is in the zone because his stuff rarely fools hitters. That's not terrible for a sinker-baller whose game is to feast on bad contact by generating 50-60% ground ball rates, but Sim is an extreme fly ball pitcher. The profile is not sustainable. On top of that, Sim's velo and fastball started falling over at 70-80 pitches and he was frequently a 4.0 inning starter which isn't a starter at all. Successful relievers always have a plus pitch. They can narrow down their arsenal to their best 2-3 pitches and reach back for a little more velo maybe. In SWR's case? He doesn't have a single average pitch this year by movement and velo, let alone a plus pitch to get outs. Doesn't have the velo, doesn't have the movement, doesn't have the deception, generates tons of fly balls... that's not a great profile for a reliever, either.
  9. bean5302
    Lots of hard contact? Check Low K rate? Check Medium/high walk rate? Check Below average stuff across the board? Check Yeah, I'll pass on SWR #2
  10. bean5302
    While it's great Sim was able to get balls to inexplicably find gloves instead of seats, his metrics have always suggested he was living on the edge and he was overdue for this kind of regression. His fans tend to point to what I consider a completely broken metric (bWAR/rWAR). My opinion is based on 2024 Nola vs. Berrios who had largely identical ERA, ERA+, RA9, yet had massive differences in WAR. I've discovered nonsensical WAR values in Baseball Reference previously only to see him adjusted in subsequent years due to positional value duplication, etc. Buxton's 2017 is a good example where I believe his WAR value has been adjusted/reduced 2x over the years due to calculation errors and adjustments. Baseball Reference made a change to pitcher WAR value in recent years, and I really don't care for it. In any case, Sim doesn't have any good pitches and he can't throw strikes or they'll get destroyed. That's not a recipe for a pitcher with sustainable success built into his profile, and that has ALWAYS been SWR's profile. Aside from that, last time I checked, you can't substitute his lucky performances from previous years into current games, and the current games are the ones the Twins are playing. If you want to trot an 8 ERA guy out there, I think you'll be amongst the "nobody wants to see that" group. Perhaps there are a cluster of 0.001% die hard Sim fans who believe he's going to suddenly start getting results again.
  11. bean5302
    There are going to be a lot of really PO'ed fans. I mean REALLY PO'ed. Great job, Pohlads.
  12. bean5302
    He's holding his own on the season in total, but quickly regressing to the player he has been. First 95 PA = .333/.484/.431 OPS .915 Next 93 PA = .205/.247/.295 OPS .542 Defensively, he's only been playable in left field.
  13. bean5302
    They're all low K rate pitchers which makes it harder to get out of jams. I think fringe level pitchers might often own ERAs higher than FIPs, but it's purely speculative. So... tough to say correlation vs. causation.
  14. bean5302
    I don't see Lewis as ready. He's still hyper aggressive and swinging at junk. He owns a 4.2% BB to a 33.3% K rate over his past 5 games. Nobody gives a rat's behind if he can demolish AAA pitchers. He needs to demonstrate the approach needed which will allow him to compete against MLB caliber pitchers who can actually throw strikes vs. International League pitchers who have become absolute trash in recent years.
  15. bean5302
    SWR has been utterly awful. He was not wanted or needed, period. Nobody should be saying they actually wanted to see Sim on the mound in the big show. What can be argued is maybe there's something in the tank from the bullpen the Twins could have tapped into. Sim is not and never has been an MLB caliber rotation arm in my opinion. He's gotten results, but it's taken a fair bit of luck and a whole lot of kid gloves yanking him after short inning starts which tax the bullpen. It's also worth noting the Twins optioned him last year after his poor performance forced him off the roster. He simply does not have the stuff. He has never had the stuff. Sim has always had to rely upon pinpoint locations at the very edges and corners of the zone. This is exactly what I expected out of SWR which is why I've felt he belongs in the 'pen if he's going to make it. We'll see if he gets claimed. I think he will, but I've been wrong about that in the past where I'm a Twins fan so I see potential in Twins players who are fringy. If Sim goes unclaimed, well, that is virtually irrefutable proof Sim isn't viewed as an MLB level talent.
  16. bean5302
    Agreed. Also, Berrios has been so much better than he's gotten credit for around here. Toronto has been willing to hang him out to dry when he doesn't have his best stuff, but the Blue Jays won something like 60% of their games when Berrios was on the mound for them in those first 1.33 years.
  17. bean5302
    Some Minnesota Twins starters. SWR, Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer, Randy Dobnak, Chris Paddack. 4.89 ERA, 4.66 FIP, 4.70 xFIP 4.56 ERA, 4.49 FIP, 4.57 xFIP 4.71 ERA, 4.60 FIP, 4.82 xFIP 4.88 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 4.25 xFIP 4.86 ERA, 4.51 FIP, 4.30 xFIP Not in order. Just random. Most were in their 20s when they pitched for the Twins.
  18. bean5302
    I feel pretty strongly another team will claim him if he makes it to that point. I wonder if the Twins are planning to see if they can trade him as part of this move because the team is also thinking he'd get claimed and this was just a way to make a more efficient marketing effort.
  19. bean5302
    It works? MLB has substantially more parity than the NFL, NBA or NHL already.
  20. bean5302
    Lee can't hit and he can't field. I don't understand the support he gets here. It's seriously mind boggling. He's a AAAA guy or utility bench piece.
  21. bean5302
    I do think the Twins should have moved him to the bullpen because I don't think he'll clear waivers. Maybe the Twins have a trade they're trying to pull off? There are some teams who are going to look at his results the past couple years and conclude he's at least worth checking out, I would think. Here's a link to the article on MLBTR. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/05/twins-designate-simeon-woods-richardson-for-assignment.html
  22. bean5302
    The MLB owners are absolutely trying to sow dissent in the union. I feel like the owners proposal is more pandering to fans than the 90% of MLB/MiLB players in the first offer, though. The salary cap/floor is the piece which will be the most difficult hurdle to get over, and I think getting the framework in place will let the rest of the pieces fall into place. In regard to the second paragraph, the Royals already locked Witt, Jr. up for 11 years, but the MLBPA will be pushing for maximum flexibility when players want it, and minimum flexibility for teams. The MLBPA won't want anything which makes it so the Pirates have some sort of advantage to keeping Skenes, for example. Skenes should be able to choose where he wants to play, and nobody wants to play in Pittsburgh (at least right now). MLBPA's dream is every single contract is fully guaranteed, has a full NTC, and every single year of a contract is a player opt out at any time during the year and the ability to negotiate with other teams while under contract, etc.
  23. bean5302
    1. There's a general idea of what MLB makes, combined, in terms of revenue. I don't think it's particularly valuable or warranted for MLB to "open their books" considering MLBPA was happy to make their proposal without books being opened. Aside from that, how many thousands of hours of review would it take to truly get to the bottom of detailed accounting records for 30 companies, all with different owners operating in different states, each bringing in hundreds of millions in revenue? I don't see how a detailed financial audit of MLB by the MLBPA would be valuable. 2. I'm not sure how much more revenue you think there is to share (with the TV revenue being included) or why MLBPA would care if there was full revenue sharing. They currently don't care. I also think this is counter-productive. There should be incentive for trying to make a good game day experience, and I think teams who work to provide a good experience would be vehemently opposed to funding teams like the Twins who suck at it. That said, I think a 100% revenue share is required if there is a tight floor/ceiling because there has to be one from a math standpoint. 3. I don't actually care about the gap. I don't think the MLBPA cares about the gap, either. I care about competitive balance, and forcing a tight floor and ceiling hasn't improved competitive balance in any of the sports. It seems to put teams into a long term competitive position (either good or bad). 4. Deferred contracts are already reduced to NPV at a rate of 4%, if I recall. 5. I don't think MLB cares about the minimum. You could make the minimum $5MM, but it would mean big contracts would be moved to the endangered species list. The MLBPA would absolutely hate this. 6. I don't think MLB cares about the MiLB minimum, either. The MLBPA needs to balance where they want the money to go. If MLB teams spend more on the minors, they can't spend as much on MLB players. I think there is a general lack of understanding by fans of compensation for MiLB players. 7. I don't think it's necessary to consider the max length of contracts allowed. Contract length is dictated by market experience. We've already seen contract length tightening as a result of some bad big contracts. A salary cap will quicken the adjustment. Other than the Dodgers in recent seasons, the competitive balance in MLB is excellent, IMHO. Certainly better than NHL/NBA/NFL which have seen a decade of dynasties where 1-2 teams in a league basically make the championship series/game every single year.
  24. bean5302
    Not well enough to run full speed, jump into the air and body check them with an unpadded shoulder.
  25. bean5302
    Or the Twins could choose to get to the $174MM floor using better players than they have rather than just extending all the guys on the roster.
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