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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I don't have TikTok, either, but I saw the iPhone vs. Android joke clip somewhere. To give you reference, Android devices are (were) detecting when users were taking photos of the moon and substituting the camera for a telescope stock image of the moon. It became a running joke, and I find the clip pretty funny.
  2. bean5302
    1 & 2 are basically saying he needs better pitches. That's probably true. His location+ is already near elite, it's just MLB batters won't chase Sim's stuff.
  3. bean5302
    Have a source for that? Caught 17% of base runners last year (same as Winkel). Agreed, there's too many passed balls, but same rate as Cartaya last year, and better than Camargo. It feels like... we've got some coaches for that as well.
  4. bean5302
    You mean 0.1 sec before he crashes into Correa or did your eyes see something in the zoomed out TV angle I didn't on my 32" 4k monitor? Maybe you were watching on an Android device?
  5. bean5302
    Since the All Star Game last year, SWR has made 19 starts. His ERA is 5.14 and his FIP is 5.00 over that span, and he only had 3 games during that stint last year where his fastball really deviated from normal. Many pitchers benefit from a lack of scouting reports when they debut, then the scouting reports come out and the wheels fall off. Across 3 seasons 2022-2024, there were 154 starters who threw at least 200 innings. Of that list, 13 had an ERA of 5.00 or higher, and their contract status (signed/current) UFA / UFA - Noah Syndergaard MLB / MLB - Brandon Pfaadt - ARI (4.05 FIP), 5yrs, $45MM MiLB / MiLB - Adrian Houser - AAA, MiLB Contract, converted to reliever. MLB / MLB - Trevor Rogers - BAL AAA (4.42 FIP), Arb2 $2.6MM MLB / MLB - Ryan Feltner - COL (4.35 FIP), Arb1 $2.275MM UFA / UFA - Zack Davies MiLB / MiLB - Dakota Hudson - AAA, MiLB contract, spot starter MiLB / MLB - Chris Flexen - CHC, MiLB contract, made the team at 1yr $1.25MM, converted to reliever. MiLB / UFA - Carlos Corrasco - MiLB contract, released by NYY. MLB / MLB - Austin Gomber - COL, Arb3, $6.35MM UFA / UFA - Alex Wood UFA / UFA - Jordan Lyles MiLB / MLB - Patrick Corbin - TEX, MiLB contract, this is hard to even fathom, but he's starting again. The track record isn't great for those guys to stick in an MLB rotation, unless you're pitching for the Colorado Rockies.
  6. bean5302
    Don't we have coaches for that? All he needs to do is beat out Camargo and Winkel to get a year long 26 man spot. I don't even know what Gasper actually does bad behind the plate? LOL. I do know he was pushed down the depth chart by the NYY who had top catching prospects rising through their system past Gasper, but I haven't seen anything to suggest he's terrible or anything. Giving Gasper some time behind the plate in St. Paul might be a good thing. I do know his arm is considered pretty weak so maybe the Twins, who don't care about stopping the run game, are concerned he won't be able to control the run game? https://soxprospects.com/players/gasper-mickey.htm
  7. bean5302
    I don't know as I'm so bullish on his youth. While his physical age isn't too old at 24, this is his 8th professional season, and his 4th season where he's seen action at the MLB level. Sim's slow progress on improving as a pitcher due to his lack of commitment to address long standing mechanical issues saw SWR make only 1 appearance in each of 2022 and 2023. Without his effort to reach out to the coaching staff last spring, and his subsequent new found commitment to stick to the long advocated adjustments, he'd already have watched his ship sale as a rotation piece. If he stays in St. Paul for 20 days, which I think is likely, he'll have burned his last option. That makes Sim a trade candidate or a bullpen candidate. Without options, he's not going to be injury replacement depth. I think a team desperate for pitching on a budget would likely pony up something of value for SWR. That said, I also don't think the Twins are in a position to pull the trigger on a trade right now as the depth in AAA gets awfully thin if Festa is added to the rotation.
  8. bean5302
    I love Prielipp's stuff. His ceiling is far higher than most guys in the Twins' system. The MLB umpire accuracy rate is 95%. In the first inning, that ump was 80% accurate. Trying to pass that off as normal is not reasonable. Prielipp's talent is well established. Whether or not he'll be able to stay healthy or keep fooling hitters as he progresses are different matters.
  9. bean5302
    Seems likely Correa winds up on concussion protocol. Looked like he was nearly knocked out with the shoulder to the back of the head. Scary stuff. Hope it's as minor as it can be.
  10. bean5302
    If it's "Buck's ball" he needs to call it. Correa cannot see him, and only noticed a charging Buxton just before impact. Either player had a play on it. Buxton ran 100 feet for that ball, Correa moved 15 feet.
  11. bean5302
    Personally, I have never had high expectations for Raya, Morris or Lewis. Raya's been coddled since year 2 with the club, and he's often struggled to impress with results as a starter. Morris doesn't have the stuff to miss bats, and Lewis has the knuckleball, but he's best in the bullpen, I'd think. Prielipp isn't struggling IMHO, he wasn't getting calls yesterday and his expected numbers look good. Considering his health is bar far the greatest concern, the fact he's going out and throwing 50+ pitches every start is awesome. Dasan Hill had a tight upper back so he was pulled on 5/3. As of right now, it's pretty much a non-issue. He's not on the IL, and I wouldn't expect him to miss any more starts. It was reported on 5/8 that Hill was probable for making his start on 5/10, but the Twins skipped it as a precaution, I guess. I'd expect to see him start this weekend. I think you're a little overly pessimistic is what I'm saying, haha.
  12. bean5302
    Yeah, it's frustrating. Those "balls" should have been called strikes, but if the umpire is enforcing a tight strike zone, the pitcher is at a huge disadvantage.
  13. bean5302
    No idea, but they'll just slap him back on the IL if he's not ready by then, right?
  14. bean5302
    @jorgenswest Tons if you're actually trying to quantify if a player has increased their high effort average swing speed. There are some errors in the data set which can mess things up, but in Kody Clemens' case, his max effort swing speeds remain about the same, he's just not taking soft swings as frequently. It's best to look at the bat tracking charts on Baseballsavant to compare previous seasons to current in this case. The chart does show a much smaller, but significant boost to his upper range swing speeds. Since Baseballsavant isn't loading properly right now, you might not be able to see it. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/kody-clemens-665019?stats=statcast-r-bat_tracking-mlb
  15. bean5302
    Over the past 16 starts Festa (career) vs. Sim Festa: 16 GS, 77.1 IP, 4.31 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 3.67 xFIP, 10.71 K/9 (27.6%), 3.26 BB/9 (8.4%), 1.32 WHIP. QS = 6.25% (6.0+ IP, 3 ER or less) QS2 = 37.5% (5.0+ IP, 3.99 ERA or less) Sim: 16 GS, 76.0 IP, 4.97 ERA, 5.21 FIP, 4.92 xFIP, 8.05 K/9 (20.4%), 3.67 BB/9 (9.3%), 1.50 WHIP. QS = 6.25% QS2 = 31.25% Festa is better in every single metric, many dramatically better, except old school QS, where they're tied. Even if he wasn't, it'd be worth taking another look at him because SWR's line is not MLB worthy.
  16. bean5302
    I don't think I need to really heap on by detailing out Miguel Sano's long list of poor decisions and potential character issues. If you don't think he was a divisive figure in the clubhouse or that he was trying his best, I think you're abjectly mistaken. Suffice to say, his decision making and immaturity were major contributors to him falling far short of his potential and disappointing Twins fans. Miguel Sano made $36MM as a Twins player. It's not exactly chump change. He did provide some highlight reel home runs, and with 7 years in MLB, you'd expect it. I hope he's been humbled and is now making better decisions, and I hope he has a great life moving forward.
  17. bean5302
    Sim can't get through the 5th inning and he's been a #6 caliber starter for about a year now. I think he just permanently lost his rotation spot to Festa.
  18. bean5302
    Prielipp was at 49 pitches. Since the Twins are limiting him to about 50-60 pitches a game, he wasn't going to head back out. Whew, Prielipp got a little hosed based on gameday. Here are the batters he faced in inning 1. 6 missed strike calls. 2 very borderline balls called.
  19. bean5302
    SWR's last 100 IP in MLB (99.2). 21 GS, 99.2 IP, 4.97 ERA, 4.68 FIP, 4.67 xFIP, 8.31 K/9 (21.0%), 3.70 BB/9 (9.3%) 3 Quality Starts 7 Starts 5.0 IP, Under 4.00 ERA (competitive games) Stuff+ 90 (poor) Location+ 103 (very good) Pitching+ 94 (below average) He rarely has a "competitive" game, and has an ERA of basically 5.00. If the Twins believe SWR can improve a step, he can spend the next few months in AAA. If not, they should see if they can get a desperate team to buy high on him.
  20. bean5302
    The real question is what happens when Rocco's custom magic 8 ball assigns multiple players to the same position now that the extreme shift is banned. Does Rocco just shake it again or does the player get to choose?
  21. bean5302
    Clemens' top swings didn't change much in bat speed. He really just cut out the slow swings for the most part. Also, his production in 2024 was not "lousy, even for a bench player," but the expected metrics do say he should have been lousy. He went .219/.258/.447 OPS .706 wRC+ 92 at the plate in 2024 with a 24.2% K rate. Twins players who were worse at the plate. Vazquez, Lee, Margot, Julien, Kirilloff, Farmer. Twins players who were essentially on par: Kepler, Martin. Clemens has solid exit velocity, and probably a tick above average raw power, and he's been able to handle 2B defensively so there are some tools in the shed. His unwillingness to take free passes cripples his production. The biggest change in a SSSS this year is he's laying off pitches out of the zone better rather than committing to a desperate, awkward, slow swing at a ball he can't even touch which results in a bump in bat speed. Can he sustain it? I mean... he's 29 so probably not, but there's a chance.
  22. bean5302
    OAA career: 1B +4, 2B +4, 3B -2 UZR/150 career: 1B +1.7, 2B -2.8, -3.2 Fielding Pct: 1B .998, 2B 1.000, 3B .925 If you're going to randomly make stuff up to trash talk a player, you're going to get called out a bit.
  23. bean5302
    Buxton could make the All Star game via vote if he stays healthy this year. Top 6 outfielders in each league get the nod, Buxton is #8 in fWAR right now, #4 in the AL. Here are the standings atm for the AL outfielders. Obviously major changes can still happen due to injury or performance since voting won't even close for round 1 for another month. 1. Judge NYY 3.9 WAR, 100% lock. 2. Abreu BOS 1.7 WAR 3. Kwan CLE 1.7 WAR 4. Buxton MIN 1.6 WAR 5. McKinstry DET 1.3 WAR 6. Rodriguez SEA 1.3 WAR 7. Meyers HOU, 1.2 WAR 8. Arozarena SEA, 1.1 WAR 9. Langford TEX, 1.1 WAR 10. Springer TOR, 1.1
  24. bean5302
    I guess I'd just rather have Raya out of the bullpen. He sure doesn't look like a starter at this point. Several of our pitchers have options.
  25. bean5302
    He's on the IL.
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