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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Keirsey needs to be twice as good as the best center fielder to ever play the game to justify his roster spot...
  2. bean5302
    The Tides came to swing.. at anything and everything. Raya was missing the entire strike zone map, and spiking pitches with regularity, but the Tides were still aggressive against him vs. just taking a ton of walks and crushing the forced mistakes. Luckily, Raya had professional catcher, Micky Gasper, behind the plate to block all the spiked pitches. Seriously, though, where is this power coming from? Gasper's never been a power threat in the minors, but he sure is making it known he can put a ball over the fence in AAA right now. Emma managed 3 walks, but his is how they were pitching him... By the way, Weston didn't have trouble hitting the strike zone against other batters I was reviewing, he was just throwing junk to Rodriguez. It's good for guys with elite stuff to have some hiccups, IMHO. Connor Prielipp and Dasan Hill have gotten reminded that every hitter can capitalize on a mistake this year.
  3. bean5302
    Over-stretching is far more likely to result in a hammy pull than not stretching.
  4. bean5302
    No, it doesn't, and no, Adams' numbers aren't better than Varlands. a24 - AA Adams - 108.0 IP, 3.67 ERA, 3.34 FIP, 3.58 xFIP, 9.08 K/9 (24.5%), 2.33 BB/9 (6.3%), 42.5% GB, 13.4% IFFB Varland - 105.0 IP, 3.34 ERA, 4.40 FIP, 4.30 xFIP, 10.20 K/9 (26.4%), 3.34 BB/9 (8.7%), 41.2% GB, 18.2% IFFB The numbers at age 24 were very similar between the two. Varland missed more bats, walked a few more, and generated more pop ups than Adams, but Adams allowed fewer fly balls. a24 - AAA Adams - 19.0 IP, 5.21 ERA, 6.46 FIP, 5.90 xFIP, 4.26 K/9 (11.4%), 3.32 BB/9 (8.9%), 50.0% GB, 21.7% IFFB Varland - 21.1 IP, 1.69 ERA, 2.29 FIP, 3.38 xFIP, 11.39 K/9 (32.1%), 1.27 BB/9 (3.6%), 35.3% GB, 22.7% IFFB No contest. Adams was virtually unplayable last year in AAA as he couldn't generate any swings and misses while generating only 1 good line for a starter in 4 attempts, though his last appearance was limited as he was out of the bullpen. Varland was lights out dominant. At age 25, Varland was almost immediately pitching for the MLB club, and holding his own until the scouting reports started getting out. You're allowed to have your favorite players and just decide they're going to be great, but don't come to a factual debate only armed with feelings.
  5. bean5302
    Lewis wasn't remotely close to ready when the Twins called him up. Given how much of ST he missed and how long he was out, it's pretty clear he should have undergone a long rehab starting off at the lower levels. Anyway, here we are. Lewis is my favorite player on the team, but I'm not sure what to do about the issues at this point. The grabbing at the hamstring and keeping him in the game during at bats is inexcusable. I can't fault Lewis for being careful, and I'm not sure how far away he is from being near 100% or getting his timing back, but he's making a lot of adjustments. Maybe it all comes together tomorrow or maybe it never comes together. Wallner is on record as saying he was ready to be back with the team months earlier than the Twins called his number again. I don't want that to be the case with Royce.
  6. bean5302
    Many people are more concerned with him striking out 33% and walking 5% since we're dealing with just a 23.0 inning sample size. Both are outstanding. The elevated BABIP against and his propensity to give up the gopher ball are not currently concerning me because of the sample size.
  7. bean5302
    He wasn't showing as much XBH power earlier this year, but the ISO has been tracking up recently. The strikeouts have tracked up with the increased power production, too, though. I'm sure he'll be in AA before the end of the year at this pace, but he didn't even have 150 PA post draft last year. There's been plenty to work on. Playing a half a season at AA would still be moving up quick.
  8. bean5302
    Adams doesn't profile as a likely MLB rotation option. He doesn't strike a ton of guys out, and he doesn't have a truly elite ground ball rate. Exit velos for Adams at AAA this year are 90.3mph which probably becomes 91-92mph at the MLB level. He projects more like a somewhat lower ceiling version of Louis Varland.
  9. bean5302
    I do not understand Keirsey's continued presence in the lineup now that Castro is back. Wallner can't return soon enough.
  10. bean5302
    To be blunt. Who cares about the defense of Winkel or Camargo if they have a .100/.125/.125 OPS .250, 5% BB, 60% K line at the plate at the MLB level? Fighting over which of the two players is a -3.5 WAR vs a -3.0 WAR player at the MLB level isn't a game I'm interested in playing.
  11. bean5302
    Raya was doing well in 5-6 inning appearances last year, but that was in AA, and he wasn't actually dominant, just good. He's now in AAA and burning MLB options on the 40 man. The stuff that was working in AA has seemingly hit a wall versus more seasoned hitters. Raya's last outing featured non-competitive pitching with him frequently missing far outside the zone, sometimes failing to get a pitch anywhere near a strike 80%+ of the time. Regardless of how good a pitcher's stuff is, even AAA hitters aren't going to swing at stuff a foot out of the zone. Six pitches is great, if a guy can throw them. Raya can't hit the strike zone with any regularity this year. Correlation is not causation. Starters are far more valuable than relievers and it's rare for a team to draft a "relief pitcher" because there is nothing to fall back on if things don't pan out. Starters who get injured or can't handle the workload or don't have the stuff to succeed at higher levels move into the bullpen. Starting is harder on pitchers and more likely to lead to injuries and breakdown.
  12. bean5302
    Space for potentially better players? Camargo is not a prospect. .212/.258/.319 wRC+ 49 in AAA this year and .212/.290/.403 wRC+ 72 last year. He's just taking plate appearances from other players who might have the ability to be backups at the MLB level. Love what he's doing catching base runners this year, but he's not going to play at the MLB level. Winkel may well be the best defensive catcher in the system, but again, he's not going to play at the MLB level. He started out hot in just a handful of plate appearances this year, but quickly regressed back to his 37% K to 0% BB ratio at the plate. Having both Winkel and Camargo at AAA just blocks other guys who might be serviceable as emergency depth or even as a backup. Things are just going to get worse when Cartaya needs a spot in AA if that happens. Unless these guys are Austin Hedges behind the dish, bluntly, they're just MiLB roster filler. They're not going to help the Twins, and if they're not going to help the Twins, why are they at AAA blocking other guys who look like they maybe have a shot?
  13. bean5302
    That's what concussion protocol is supposed to address. The 7 day IL is to ramp up baseball activities while continuing to review for any concussion related symptoms. Still don't know squat about concussions overall, but it's a good step.
  14. bean5302
    It's a function of the new CBA for MiLB and higher pay, IMHO. Players who aren't good enough no longer have a real incentive to move on to the private sector. It puts the onus on the teams to declare "enough" and release guys. Sabato is good enough to hold down a MiLB roster filler position in AA or probably good enough to play Indy Ball or make it in the Mexican or Korean leagues if he wants to continue playing.
  15. bean5302
    I'd be fine DFA'ing Vazquez so Baldelli can't use him and promoting Cardenas to MLB for that matter. Cardenas is 25. Sink or swim. I'm sick of the Twins log jamming players until they have gray beards.
  16. bean5302
    Larnach has been far better lately, but his swing is too flat right now which is eating into his power production. He's never had what I would call an "upper cut" swing which typically results in a lot of home runs, though he got close to it in 2023. The most profound adjustment Larnach has made was last year to cut down on his enormous K rate. His walk rate dropped by 30%, too, but he just wasn't an MLB caliber player while he was striking out 35% of the time. I'm not sure how things will finally pan out for him. He's got very little defensive versatility with a mediocre arm and poor speed so the bat will have to carry him. I do think calls to move him to 1B are a fairly good idea, and at 1B, his bat might be "good enough."
  17. bean5302
    Yep. Looks terrible this year, but even more pointed on why the Twins should have traded Miranda instead of clinging to assets they didn't trust and then going out and getting an ultra bargain basement AAAA guy on a MiLB contract to overtly supplant Miranda. Bush league.
  18. bean5302
    a25 Cardenas (C) - .243/.391/.419 wRC+ 128 (16 games 144 innings caught 36% CS) a25 Cossetti (C/1B) - .211/.341/.394 wRC+ 106 (14 games 113 innings caught 12% CS) a23 Olivar (C/OF) - .298/.367/.450 wRC+ 124 (13 games 106 innings caught 25% CS) For whatever reason cannot be comprehended, the Twins are desperate to retain Winkel and Camargo rather than releasing them or pushing them lower in the system. Cardenas and Olivar have both controlled the run game well, with Cardenas being well above average. Olivar is the only prospect among them due to age, but Cardenas has some history of hitting well (was bad last year.).
  19. bean5302
    Anyway... Ty France is making $1MM / yr. He's producing fine for that amount of money. France was brought in on a MiLB contract with an invite, and he made the team in part because the organization doesn't have any faith in Miranda. France's offer was practically the same as Mike Ford got. With all the injuries, it could be worse, I suppose. The Twins have $80MM tied up in Correa, Buxton, Vazquez, Bader, Castro and Jeffers. That's plenty of cash for a mid-market team.
  20. bean5302
    I think it's clear Prielipp is following Raya's use path from last year. If the organization was developing him as a reliever, Prielipp would be pitching 3x a week, one inning at a time rather than 1x per week for 3.0-4.0 innings and 50 pitches at a time. Falvey's been clear he thinks Prielipp will be in the 'pen eventually, but Falvey's not the pitching coach or involved in the day to day development process of prospects. The people who are involved want Prielipp starting, and that's absolutely the right call for a guy with potentially 3 plus pitches because those guys are your upper rotation options if they can stay healthy. https://www.mlb.com/news/connor-prielipp-impressing-at-double-a-after-dealing-with-injuries
  21. bean5302
    Carlos Correa began baseball activities. I think he'll be back at the minimum 7 days. Buxton is a little behind him, apparently. https://www.mlb.com/news/carlos-correa-byron-buxton-concussion-il-progressing-after-collision
  22. bean5302
    Not normal, can't imagine it's related to a promotion. The development list was designed as a tool to remove guys from the competition roster while allowing them to stick with the team. It lets them continue to practice and work on issues outside of a game environment or going onto the IL. The actual rules are pretty undefined so teams can pretty much use it for anything, and it wouldn't surprise me if the Twins were using it for roster manipulation. A player has to stay on the list for 7 days. It might be more related to other roster moves while the Twins figure out who belongs in AA since Prielipp just pitched. The Twins have used it before with pitchers to build them up (like SWR after we acquired him).
  23. bean5302
    I get what you're saying. Castro wasn't elected and he wasn't really a default choice by the team (Correa), Castro was an alternate for the default. Kind of a round-about way to make it to the All Star Game. That said, Castro's performance at the point voting ended was All Star worthy, and he was selected by MLB, not the Twins if I understand correctly. Carlos Correa got a $100k bonus as a result of making the All Star Game so that might have influenced the Twins' decision making? Castro was at .274/.361/.448 wRC+ 133 while owning 2.7 fWAR, which was 13th highest in the American League among position players. Given he played pretty much everywhere, he'd have been electable for nearly any position.
  24. bean5302
    France hasn't been good as a 1B, but he's been... borderline adequate as a bench player. While his expected metrics are higher, I don't see a strong link to his batted ball data and a surge in production the xwOBA would suggest. That said, France isn't being paid the kind of money a starting position player in MLB should be making. France is being paid to be a bench bat. Offensively, his production is right on par with last year thanks to almost nothing other than singles. Defensively, he's okay, and thankfully, last year's defensive train wreck was a total aberration.
  25. bean5302
    Royce Lewis' dirt slow 25.6 ft/sec sprint speed, and the frequent clutching at his hamstring after swinging at pitches tells a very different story about how he's been feeling. As far as Brooks Lee, if people are hanging their hopes on him to carry the team, that's going to be tough. I just don't see much signal he's a better than average MLB bat.
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