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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Seems pretty generous given Jenkins' often slow starts, quick promotions after short bursts of raking, and his relatively pedestrian results at AAA. Jenkins is probably better than absolute replacement level as a starting CF right now if he's got as much or more speed than advertised, but do the Twins want to start his clock burning time as a replacement+ player before he gets more experience and is potentially worth the starting job? As a corner OF, he might be able to duplicate a Kepler-like performance with a close to league average bat putting together 2 WAR campaigns with defense.
  2. bean5302
    Luck and SSS does not equal talent.
  3. bean5302
    Duran and Varland do not add 5 wins this year to the Twins to put them into a precarious first place in the division. The Twins have blown 11 saves so far (16th in MLB). The Twins relievers have pitched 317.0 innings, Duran and Varland combined have 70 IP so less than 25% of all innings the Twins relievers have pitched. Meaning other Twins relievers (who are bad) still have to cover 247 innings. Duran and Varland in the bullpen probably makes the Twins viable as a potential back end playoff team auto-scheduled for a quick exit. I guess I don't care if the Twins are a 1 and done playoff team. Been there. Done that for 20 years now.
  4. bean5302
    Why? There is nothing to suggest a now 27year old Austin Martin has some hidden breakthrough coming. After 500 PA in AAA which show him projecting as a pretty league average bat, and 700 PA at the MLB level confirming that. 1200 PA with the same basic outcome. Decent eye, lots of contact, no power, can't play a defense outside corner OF (or maybe 2B which the Twins abandoned).
  5. bean5302
    Again, not my numbers. Fangraphs' numbers.
  6. bean5302
    Glad he's been put into a position to hit where there were a lot of base runners. The point of the stats saying he has a league average bat is to say a good hitter would have 70 RBI instead of 56 right now if they were in Bell's spot in the lineup.
  7. bean5302
    There was a statistical analysis, but data is always growing and teams are continually looking for a market advantage. https://sabr.org/journal/article/the-statistical-mirage-of-clutch-hitting/
  8. bean5302
    Take it up with Fangraphs and fWAR 0-6 A 7-12 B 13-18 C 19-24 D 25-30 F
  9. bean5302
    Last year's 181 plate appearance high note is long ago in the rear view mirror. At this point, his 257 PA in 2024, and 2026 (coincidence) look like who he is. A below league average bat contact hitter who can work a count, but who has no power to punish mistake pitches and limited defensive value as a corner only outfielder. That's fine for MiLB depth, but it's not viable as an MLB player for a playoff caliber team. Not as a utility guy since he can't cover CF. That means he can't fit the utility 4th outfielder role. His bat doesn't play in the corners, 1B or DH. 697 PA is enough.
  10. bean5302
    A clutch hitter could exist. There are always exceptions, but in general, a hitter can't decide when they're going to be good. Furthermore, if a hitter "could" decide to be extra good when it was "clutch" then it would imply they don't try when it's not important. Same kind of clutch argument was used for Jack Morris by his proponents pushing for the HoF who argued Morris gave up runs when he didn't care. (debunked). For pitchers, clutch can exist due to stretch vs. windup technique or for hitters, if they were just really calm and collected at the plate. All business regardless of the outside stresses (Joe Mauer). The higher the stress of the situation, the more it would probably benefit a hitter or pitcher who was more in the zone and less anxious, in theory? For an entire team, historically, clutch hitting isn't a thing. However, Cleveland seems to be bucking that concept. Cleveland puts a lot of balls in play. Low BB rate, low K rate. It's not that they have a good BABIP (2nd worst in MLB from 2022-2026), but they also rarely GIDP. They're a pop-up and fly ball heavy lineup which isn't all that great on paper, but pop ups and FBs don't generate GIDPs and putting lots of balls in play seems to have an advantage? 2022 = 2nd +2.93 2023 = 5th +2.62 2024 = 11th +1.00 2025 = 1st +3.55 2026 = 18th +0.52 Basically, is Cleveland clutch because of a plate approach or is Cleveland clutch because of a passive strategy of the type of player they have on the roster?
  11. bean5302
    Last 3 starts 8.59 ERA, 9.29 xERA, 8.97 FIP, 6.04 xFIP. Not sure I'd called that effective.
  12. bean5302
    Larnach is a good route runner. He's always been slow to react and to accelerate. His slow reactions are what make him so poor in the field. At this point, his sprint speed is fine, but his burst acceleration is limited. Lefty out of the box to 1st base rank of 431 mlb players 10ft 115 15ft 142 20ft 167 25ft 201 30ft 206 35ft 229 40ft 239 45ft 243 The trend is he gets run down after a jump which comes from starting off in the lefty batters box.
  13. bean5302
    No excuses: He was sick? He was drained? He was "regression"
  14. bean5302
    By positions C - A 1B - D 2B - C 3B - C SS - F LF - A (#1 in MLB fWAR) CF - A RF - F DH - C SP - C RP - F
  15. bean5302
    Been watching to too much Provus LOL
  16. bean5302
    I don't know how you decide who is worth building around. Generally, players with good bats who are also good defenders aren't relegated to utility roles. The biggest knock against Clemens is his age and the potential he declines.
  17. bean5302
    The Pohlad family traditional philosophy seems to be: Goal = .500 Reach Goal = Win the division World Series = All luck.
  18. bean5302
    First off, Brooks Lee has been a success. He's made MLB and even if he moves into a slot of a utility infielder until he starts getting a little expensive, he provides a solid floor. TD opened with an omg omg omg omg omg omg Brooks Lee fell alllllll the way to the Twins at #8! Lee was potentially a first overall pick!!! type of message. Except Lee wasn't a potential number 1. He was drafted right about where he was expected to go according to mock draft sources, but the TD hype machine was working so hard smoke was coming out. Fans bought in, and that's where a lot of this comes from IMHO. This century? I mean, I guess. By the raw numerical odds, a team can only win the World Series once every 30 years and make it once every 15. The Twins were pretty exciting to watch for a 5 year period between 2006-2010. I believe the 2006 team would likely have won the World Series if not for injuries to Brad Radke and Francisco Liriano. A lot of fans were pretty excited at the start of the Falvey era as well, but the 2020s? Rough by any account.
  19. bean5302
    If the Twins can find a taker for Ober.
  20. bean5302
    The spring doubters were absolutely correct. Matthews sucked for his first 4 starts in AAA, then has been inconsistent since. I'm a fan of his story and I like seeing him have success. He's not improving. He's getting improved results. Last 5 starts 3.82 ERA, 5.22 xERA (his pitches are getting clobbered), 4.86 FIP, 4.53 xFIP. Matthews has a lot in common with Varland in terms of his problems.
  21. bean5302
    Fedko can cover CF or be a defensive replacement or pinch runner. Sabato can't do anything other than swing the bat. Speaking of Fedko (this year's DaShawn Keirsey, Jr.) he's not doing anything to push for more plate appearances.
  22. bean5302
    25 is pretty dang close to peak. xwOBA doesn't dislike pulled home runs, it doesn't grade favorably when the home runs clear the fence by barely enough. Lee's been jusssssssttt eeking over fences this year. A lot of those home runs wouldn't be home runs at many parks. Aside from that, Brooks Lee has been pretty much in line with wOBA vs xwOBA during his career. I'm not seeing the data to suggest he's going to beat the expected metrics.
  23. bean5302
    Why? Even if he made every available start for the rest of the year and went 6 innings every start he'd finish at 160 innings. Of course, that'd be pretty unreasonable. He'll likely end up at 150 innings or so if he's making every start. When the Twins have traditionally limited a player, they've done so early in the season, building the pitcher up over time to a full workload. I don't see how the Twins would be letting Prielipp near 100 pitches a game on a regular basis if they were worried about the work load. I'd imagine the Twins would much more likely skip a start for him if he shows signs of wearing down.
  24. bean5302
    "we" are, are we? Shelton has had Prielipp pitching 6.0 innings in 4 of his last 5 starts with 4 of those 5 having at least 93 pitches thrown. I see nothing to indicate the Twins are limiting him. Piggy back a 6.0 inning starter?
  25. bean5302
    I don't recall Keaschall ever being compared to Trout, but Trout comparisons in general are insane. Trout produced more than 4x Buxton's career value through age 29. Aside from that, Lee is absolutely "better" than he was at the plate, but he's still not looking like somebody who will be even average. He's also "better" as a 3B than he was as a SS, but he's not going to be a good 3rd baseman. He's not rangey and his arm is very weak. Lee's also been a TD golden child for a long time. Not until this year did fans stop the endless excuse making, but still, writing glowing articles about him feed the need of people to live in their bubble. That's what people want to hear and TD is a fan entertainment site.
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