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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Again, not my numbers. Fangraphs' numbers.
  2. bean5302
    Glad he's been put into a position to hit where there were a lot of base runners. The point of the stats saying he has a league average bat is to say a good hitter would have 70 RBI instead of 56 right now if they were in Bell's spot in the lineup.
  3. bean5302
    There was a statistical analysis, but data is always growing and teams are continually looking for a market advantage. https://sabr.org/journal/article/the-statistical-mirage-of-clutch-hitting/
  4. bean5302
    Take it up with Fangraphs and fWAR 0-6 A 7-12 B 13-18 C 19-24 D 25-30 F
  5. bean5302
    Last year's 181 plate appearance high note is long ago in the rear view mirror. At this point, his 257 PA in 2024, and 2026 (coincidence) look like who he is. A below league average bat contact hitter who can work a count, but who has no power to punish mistake pitches and limited defensive value as a corner only outfielder. That's fine for MiLB depth, but it's not viable as an MLB player for a playoff caliber team. Not as a utility guy since he can't cover CF. That means he can't fit the utility 4th outfielder role. His bat doesn't play in the corners, 1B or DH. 697 PA is enough.
  6. bean5302
    A clutch hitter could exist. There are always exceptions, but in general, a hitter can't decide when they're going to be good. Furthermore, if a hitter "could" decide to be extra good when it was "clutch" then it would imply they don't try when it's not important. Same kind of clutch argument was used for Jack Morris by his proponents pushing for the HoF who argued Morris gave up runs when he didn't care. (debunked). For pitchers, clutch can exist due to stretch vs. windup technique or for hitters, if they were just really calm and collected at the plate. All business regardless of the outside stresses (Joe Mauer). The higher the stress of the situation, the more it would probably benefit a hitter or pitcher who was more in the zone and less anxious, in theory? For an entire team, historically, clutch hitting isn't a thing. However, Cleveland seems to be bucking that concept. Cleveland puts a lot of balls in play. Low BB rate, low K rate. It's not that they have a good BABIP (2nd worst in MLB from 2022-2026), but they also rarely GIDP. They're a pop-up and fly ball heavy lineup which isn't all that great on paper, but pop ups and FBs don't generate GIDPs and putting lots of balls in play seems to have an advantage? 2022 = 2nd +2.93 2023 = 5th +2.62 2024 = 11th +1.00 2025 = 1st +3.55 2026 = 18th +0.52 Basically, is Cleveland clutch because of a plate approach or is Cleveland clutch because of a passive strategy of the type of player they have on the roster?
  7. bean5302
    Last 3 starts 8.59 ERA, 9.29 xERA, 8.97 FIP, 6.04 xFIP. Not sure I'd called that effective.
  8. bean5302
    Larnach is a good route runner. He's always been slow to react and to accelerate. His slow reactions are what make him so poor in the field. At this point, his sprint speed is fine, but his burst acceleration is limited. Lefty out of the box to 1st base rank of 431 mlb players 10ft 115 15ft 142 20ft 167 25ft 201 30ft 206 35ft 229 40ft 239 45ft 243 The trend is he gets run down after a jump which comes from starting off in the lefty batters box.
  9. bean5302
    No excuses: He was sick? He was drained? He was "regression"
  10. bean5302
    By positions C - A 1B - D 2B - C 3B - C SS - F LF - A (#1 in MLB fWAR) CF - A RF - F DH - C SP - C RP - F
  11. bean5302
    Been watching to too much Provus LOL
  12. bean5302
    I don't know how you decide who is worth building around. Generally, players with good bats who are also good defenders aren't relegated to utility roles. The biggest knock against Clemens is his age and the potential he declines.
  13. bean5302
    The Pohlad family traditional philosophy seems to be: Goal = .500 Reach Goal = Win the division World Series = All luck.
  14. bean5302
    First off, Brooks Lee has been a success. He's made MLB and even if he moves into a slot of a utility infielder until he starts getting a little expensive, he provides a solid floor. TD opened with an omg omg omg omg omg omg Brooks Lee fell alllllll the way to the Twins at #8! Lee was potentially a first overall pick!!! type of message. Except Lee wasn't a potential number 1. He was drafted right about where he was expected to go according to mock draft sources, but the TD hype machine was working so hard smoke was coming out. Fans bought in, and that's where a lot of this comes from IMHO. This century? I mean, I guess. By the raw numerical odds, a team can only win the World Series once every 30 years and make it once every 15. The Twins were pretty exciting to watch for a 5 year period between 2006-2010. I believe the 2006 team would likely have won the World Series if not for injuries to Brad Radke and Francisco Liriano. A lot of fans were pretty excited at the start of the Falvey era as well, but the 2020s? Rough by any account.
  15. bean5302
    If the Twins can find a taker for Ober.
  16. bean5302
    The spring doubters were absolutely correct. Matthews sucked for his first 4 starts in AAA, then has been inconsistent since. I'm a fan of his story and I like seeing him have success. He's not improving. He's getting improved results. Last 5 starts 3.82 ERA, 5.22 xERA (his pitches are getting clobbered), 4.86 FIP, 4.53 xFIP. Matthews has a lot in common with Varland in terms of his problems.
  17. bean5302
    Fedko can cover CF or be a defensive replacement or pinch runner. Sabato can't do anything other than swing the bat. Speaking of Fedko (this year's DaShawn Keirsey, Jr.) he's not doing anything to push for more plate appearances.
  18. bean5302
    25 is pretty dang close to peak. xwOBA doesn't dislike pulled home runs, it doesn't grade favorably when the home runs clear the fence by barely enough. Lee's been jusssssssttt eeking over fences this year. A lot of those home runs wouldn't be home runs at many parks. Aside from that, Brooks Lee has been pretty much in line with wOBA vs xwOBA during his career. I'm not seeing the data to suggest he's going to beat the expected metrics.
  19. bean5302
    Why? Even if he made every available start for the rest of the year and went 6 innings every start he'd finish at 160 innings. Of course, that'd be pretty unreasonable. He'll likely end up at 150 innings or so if he's making every start. When the Twins have traditionally limited a player, they've done so early in the season, building the pitcher up over time to a full workload. I don't see how the Twins would be letting Prielipp near 100 pitches a game on a regular basis if they were worried about the work load. I'd imagine the Twins would much more likely skip a start for him if he shows signs of wearing down.
  20. bean5302
    "we" are, are we? Shelton has had Prielipp pitching 6.0 innings in 4 of his last 5 starts with 4 of those 5 having at least 93 pitches thrown. I see nothing to indicate the Twins are limiting him. Piggy back a 6.0 inning starter?
  21. bean5302
    I don't recall Keaschall ever being compared to Trout, but Trout comparisons in general are insane. Trout produced more than 4x Buxton's career value through age 29. Aside from that, Lee is absolutely "better" than he was at the plate, but he's still not looking like somebody who will be even average. He's also "better" as a 3B than he was as a SS, but he's not going to be a good 3rd baseman. He's not rangey and his arm is very weak. Lee's also been a TD golden child for a long time. Not until this year did fans stop the endless excuse making, but still, writing glowing articles about him feed the need of people to live in their bubble. That's what people want to hear and TD is a fan entertainment site.
  22. bean5302
    Bell is making a significant amount for a maybe league average hitting DH. The new team would be responsible for about $4MM including the $1.25MM buyout. 1) Team has to be a competitor 2) Team has to have little payroll capacity so they can't afford a good option 3) Team must be unwilling to trade quality prospect talent to acquire a good player 4) Team must have an absolute black hole at DH Just because Bell is "hot" today doesn't mean he's going to be hot tomorrow and teams know this. 6/14-6/21 was his "hot streak" where he went .462/.517/.769 OPS 1.286 wRC+ 257 across 7 games. Great! Trade him! Only his 6 games since are .150/.227/.300 OPS .527 wRC+ 43. Looks like we missed our shot. For teams to bite, they're going to need to see a month of consistent performance before the deadline. Not 1 or 2 hot streaks for 5 games each surrounded by 20 games of not so good play. Even then, nobody is going to buy Bell being a highly desirable target. The Twins overpaid for him from Day 1 so the best the team can hope for is to get out from under his contract with a PTBNL, IMHO.
  23. bean5302
    While it's fun to watch Lee be successful at the plate, I don't see any realistic sustainability of even an average MLB hitter based on his approach. Baez through 2025 ASG = .275/.310/.442 wRC+ 108, wOBA .325, xwOBA .291 and then the wheels came off. Obviously a totally different hitter, but that's how regression works. Brooks Lee's performance looks a lot like Javy Baez's hot 2025 start. It's just a matter of time before Lee's results tank.
  24. bean5302
    TD Hype machine on overdrive, Keaschall was barely holding his own at AAA when the Twins called his number. Then his first 7 games at the MLB level were great and fans jumped on board the hype machine at warp speed. His rehab assignment in AAA was poor, and the Twins recalled him. Once again, the first 20 games at the MLB level were great before pitchers stopped throwing him challenge fastballs. Keaschall's production fell off hard but fans seem to think the all fastballs version of Keaschall was the real Luke Keaschall and the AAA and post August 2025 Luke Keaschall was the imposter. Brooks Lee was similar. TD Hype Machine maxed out, initial success, then he struggles. Looks bad in AAA, but people think he'll turn it around.
  25. bean5302
    Aaron Sabato is good-ish at AAA. He's got a wRC+ of 127. I'll admit, the pitching in the International League is so abominable that it's hard for a hitter to show whether they're ready because no matter who is out there, it's tough to OPS like 1.000+, but Sabato's AVG/OBP/SLG wOBA and wRC+ project pretty poorly. Sabato is probably just having a nice career AAA year. Maybe he'll get a Sept call up to get a couple PA in the big show as a pat on the back before he chooses a different career path.
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