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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Tough to say what the Twins are expecting on Sands. He's sitting at 93-94mph instead of the 95-96mph from the previous 2 years. Kinda more like he was initially. If he's feeling good, the Twins are going to need to use an option to keep him in AAA or recall him in the relative near future. Pitchers max out at 30 days on the rehab list, but once a player is healthy, you can't keep them there for performance issues. He's made 4 appearances for 5 innings pitched in the past 11 days. I'd expect him to make one more appearance in a couple days after throwing 14 pitches yesterday, and if there aren't any health related issues, the Twins will need to make a call.
  2. bean5302
    Second year in professional baseball, at the lowest full season level, striking out nearly 45% of the time over 300 PA. There's no realistic path to improve to a projectable prospect. Pitchers don't hit any more, and haven't hit since like 1990 in any MiLB league, and pitcher would be the only position you could have that K rate at that level and be a prospect.
  3. bean5302
    Fly balls are literally bouncing off his glove in the outfield. That's beer league softball stuff for real. He has the wheels to get there, but knowing when to open and close a glove? You learn that on the sand lots and fields with a tennis ball and a little league bat as a kid. I've seen guys with a major case of the yips and throwing issues. I can't ever remember seeing the kind of glove Luke Keaschall has at the MLB level.
  4. bean5302
    Mauer was an average runner to his age 30 season, maybe a bit above average. He was 2nd on the Twins in 2005 swiping 13 bags. I think it's as much precautionary (hey, do you want to risk an injury to arguably the best catcher (or potentially player) in all of baseball to try and steal 2B?) as it is Mauer's athleticism. I would expect the Twins would be careful with Lackey on the base paths as well, even if he DOES have the athleticism. The writer is correct. Lackey's profile doesn't look anything like Mauer's. Mauer was a first ballot hall of famer and one of the greatest catchers of all time. Probably in the top 5 in his prime, and debatably one of the 3 greatest in MLB history given the context of eras behind Carter and Bench. In terms of peak production value, Mauer exceeds Yogi Berra and is just behind PED era players Piazza and Pudge. A 2-3 WAR Starting catcher would be an outstanding result for Lackey. Anything above that is gravy.
  5. bean5302
    Austin Martin has the same skill set as Keaschall, but with a better arm. Matt Wallner also had a similar skill set as Keaschall. Neither one of those players is going to be a regular in Center Field. Keaschall's glove is made of cement. Among the worst fielders I've ever seen in my life.
  6. bean5302
    I want to make it clear. I'm not saying Walker Jenkins couldn't turn into an absolute stud. I'm saying there's no reason to expect he's actually ready to be an every day contributor to a MLB team "today" based on the production he's shown compared to other players in the same league he plays in. In the International League, he's better than an average AAA hitter. He's not raking. He's not dominating. He's not in the top quartile of hitters there. He's wRC+ 118, ranked 80th of 286 players with 100+ PA, which is 72nd percentile. top 5% = 145+ (these guys are dominating) top 10% = 134+ (production says these guys are ready, advanced metrics might disagree) Sabato = 133 Fedko = 129 Kreidler = 128 Wallner = 127 top 20% = 124+ (these guys are probably ready) Culpepper = 122 Ross = 121 Jenkins = 118 top 30% = 115+ (these guys are "better than average" minor league hitters) top 40% = 109+ (pedestrian, little case for being MLB contributors at the plate) median = 103 The Twins don't really have a place for him to play right now. He needs to be playing every day, which I think is absolutely critical to a player without years of MLB experience who can just get back into form quickly. My honest expectation of Jenkins' 95% ceiling is peak Max Kepler a24-a29. wRC+ 105ish, elite defense in right field, 2.5-3.0 WAR. I don't see anything in his performance up to now which suggests his ceiling is higher, that's all optimism.
  7. bean5302
    It sure would be amazing! Oh wait, he had that combo on the roster for years here and the season kept ending before the playoffs...
  8. bean5302
    Walker Jenkins pretty much = Austin Martin with a little more pop, but endless injury woes from a stat sheet standpoint. He projects as below average at the plate in MLB with passable defense in CF because he supposedly has better instincts, but best suited to right field.
  9. bean5302
    Your comment reads like only trade your assets if you can rip somebody off and get them to pay way more than the asset is worth. I'd rather the Twins evaluate players based on how much value they have to the Twins and how much value the team thinks they're getting back rather than sitting in a dark office petting player cards whispering "my precious" to every player on the roster.
  10. bean5302
    1) Bullpens are easy to build. Just have to spend a little money. Guess what the Twins learned for the scenario? Falvey needed to go, now. It was the most important lesson this franchise could have learned as Falvey was the single biggest problem in the organization. 2) "Prospects aren't guaranteed" isn't a new lesson. Everybody in baseball knows this. I feel like the writer should also know this? What was guaranteed is a high degree of likelihood what the Twins got back in their trades made them better this year. 3) Correa's trade savings were 100% reinvested. The budget for 2026 was established before the end of 2025. If Correa was still here, the Twins would still be spending $105MM or whatever it is. Correa would just be eating $32MM or whatever.
  11. bean5302
    Also, I think the Twins should keep Joe Ryan and put him in the bullpen. He'd be an elite closer and solve all of the bullpen woes on his own! Plus, it keeps him healthy and prevents him from wearing down like he does every single year in the second half! We hadn't had that take of converting a successful starter into a reliever for Joe Ryan yet, just pretty much every other rotation arm so I felt that was overdue.
  12. bean5302
    Tom Pohlad is not the GM. A decision he might make is whether the the Twins are buyers or sellers based upon the budget made available. What Zoll does with the budget is not where the Pohlad family are going to be involved. Beyond that, it would be utterly stupid if the Pohlad family did start forcing their opinions into roster construction.
  13. bean5302
    Okay... didn't know we were changing the subject.
  14. bean5302
    Yeah, he really is on his last legitimate chance he can generate on his own. After this point, it's all luck if he can't stick. If he gets demoted for not being able to hit, I think another organization will be Roden's only shot. He'll be behind Wallner on the depth charts, and Wallner hasn't gotten a chance after months of raking. It's pretty clear Wallner is viewed as MiLB roster filler at this point, and the Twins do not believe he can adjust to MLB pitchers being able to hit spots on the inside of the plate.
  15. bean5302
    Caught fly balls more than 5 feet away from where he was standing when they got launched? Roden's far from a can't miss prospect, but he's not a Fedko, either. Viewing Roden, he's never had a hiccup, never performed under a wRC+ 133 at any level of the minors. The Blue Jays treated him mostly like a toss in for Varland. I think his performance at the plate probably has Larnach's current production as an absolute ceiling, but Roden may be able to cover CF. Honestly, the question here isn't Roden replacing Larnach. It's a question of can Roden play LF and hit well enough to be an every day 2.0 WAR kind of player? Fedko needed to rake out of the gate. Not struggle to make contact with every pitch you see. Fedko's swinging strike rate was 20.5%. His swing rate outside the zone was 40.5%. That's... Listen. Miguel Sano's swinging strike rate was 16.0% over his career and never topped 19.1% in any full season. Swinging strike rate over 15.0% is practically unplayable, Combine that with his O-swing rate of 40% (MLB average is like 28%) and that is really, really, really bad.
  16. bean5302
    Well, in some cases, just a guy you can put on the bench and not play unless you have to.
  17. bean5302
    Seems like the Twins frequently are by some analysts, yet the Twins rarely actually produce anything of value.
  18. bean5302
    I guess I don't think the Twins typically have 3 fide Cy Young winners/candidates in the rotation, arguably the best farm system in baseball and a $300MM payroll. It's easy to use this approach when you have unlimited resources.
  19. bean5302
    He's had one UCL injury. He had a failed first TJ surgery which required an internal brace follow up. He's only had one significant injury in his career. Surgical intervention is not 100% successful, and Prielipp just happened to get the short end of the stick. He's not Brock Stewart or Matt Canterino or Josh Winder. Drew MacPhail in 2025 https://www.mlb.com/news/connor-prielipp-impressing-at-double-a-after-dealing-with-injuries
  20. bean5302
    I believe what you're saying is true, but also the desperation and backfill has impacted things, too.
  21. bean5302
    I think it's a factor of desperation. Falzoll didn't address the bullpen, Festa and Lopez are out, SWR flopped, and the Twins have been forced to reach into the minors hard, the waiver wire, anything and everything to get innings that don't wipe the team's chances of winning. That has led to a vacuum at AAA -> AA -> A+ where the backfill has resulted in early promotions and guys who aren't ready. Plus a lot of guys in the minors returning from injury.
  22. bean5302
    Prielipp should not be managed via a seasonal innings cap if he's healthy. He's not going to get to 150 innings this year, and if the Twins are capping him lower than that, they're just being paranoid. While Prielipp's "innings pitched in competitive game settings" has been low, it's not like he's been laying on a sofa waiting for his arm to heal before he can throw the ball. There is evidence 4+ days of rest for starters is critical, and there's a 22% improvement in 5 days rest for arm injuries according to Gemini in some quick searching I did. There is no statistical improvement documented for more than 5 days rest. There is evidence going over 100 pitches in a game increases injury risk. There is evidence pitching more innings (over 6) in a single game increases injury risk (resting in the dugout and needing to warm back up impacts, etc). There is evidence less than 5 days of rest between starts increases injury risk. There is zero evidence suggesting a seasonal innings limit has any impact on injury risk.
  23. bean5302
    Better case to platoon Bell for a different team since he can't hit lefties, even if he has the platoon advantage from being able to stand in the right handed batters box and he's been league average at the plate for years. He's been bad against lefties for years now. A blip this year doesn't erase who he is to me.
  24. bean5302
    I don't think anybody knows how much of the decision making process is Falvey. Same issue as when Thad Levine was here. Regardless, arguing Zoll needed more time to figure out how to be a GM falls on deaf ears over here. If Zoll didn't need more time, he still did everything just like how the team has been run under Falvey so he's incompetent as a GM. If Zoll did need more time, he was incompetent as a baseline to start with because he'd already had years in the role.
  25. bean5302
    If athleticism, strength and work ethic was all that was important for players, we wouldn't see 95% of draft picks wash out without making an impact at the MLB level.
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