bean5302

Trying to get as close to 30 catchers as I could each season. The number of qualified catchers at that PA varies a bit. 350 could return 28 catchers or 15 in any season. btw, Median is also average, just not as highly used as Mean :p

Goldschmidt probably has another year of solid league average bat in him. Maybe a brief rebound, but he doesn't project like a Nelson Cruz.

Okay, let's look at this from a homer perspective, just because the negativity around here is a bit much even for me hahah. C - Ryan Jeffers 2.5 WAR (free agent year performance) 1B - Trevor Larnach 2.0 WAR 2B - Luke Keaschall 3.0 WAR SS - Kaelyn Culpepper 4.0 WAR 3B - Royce Lewis 5.0 WAR LF - Austin Martin 2.5 WAR CF - Byron Buxton 5.0 WAR RF - Walker Jenkins 4.0 WAR BC - Jackson 1.0 WAR UO - Roden 1.0 WAR UI - Lee 1.0 WAR Util - Clemens 0.5 WAR SP1 - Lopez 3.5 WAR SP2 - Ryan 3.5 WAR SP3 - Ober 2.5 WAR SP4 - Matthews 2.5 WAR SP5 - Bradley 2.5 WAR Spot - Abel 1.0 WAR Cl - Festa 2.0 WAR 8th - Prielipp 1.5 WAR BP3 - SWR 1.0 WAR BP4 - Topa 0.5 WAR BP5 - Sands 0.5 WAR BP6 - Funderburk 0.5 WAR BP7 - Rojas 0.5 WAR BP8 - Morris 0.5 WAR That's 54 WAR = 99 Wins!!!

Ryan Jeffers is not above average. He's below average, technically. fWAR 2025 = Rank of 26 catchers with 350+ PA (15 of 26) 42% 2024 = Rank of 32 catchers with 300+ PA (22 of 32) 31% 2023 = Rank of 31 catchers with 300+ PA (14 of 31) 55% He's been a pretty durable, below average defensive catcher with a league average-ish bat in potential decline. That's a solid profile for a reliable starting catcher, but it's not great or above average. I've always been annoyed by these "the Twins owe mediocre player <x> something." Jeffers doesn't even have a ton of trade value. +12 on BaseballTradeValues.com. It's fine. He'd be expected to bring back something of value or he could potentially be packaged to get a little more from somebody, but he's not going to change the Twins' farm system or something. Appreciate him for what he is, but as is history with Twins fans, any player who is with the team for more than 2-3 years becomes "special" just based on the older history of this team being nothing more than a farm system for competitive clubs.

For the comments about not rebuilding, what is the ceiling of the current roster without the rebuild? vs. what is the ceiling of the players we have coming up now or could acquire? This team lost 92 games last year with Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Byron Buxton and a lot of talent which was cast off at the deadline. What does the 2025 team look like as-is? The players the Twins traded were worth 10 WAR for Minnesota last year. This team with Lopez, Ryan and Buxton is potentially a 100 loss team as-is. Established veterans worthy of starting positions for a playoff caliber team. C - Jeffers 1B - Nothing 2B - Nothing SS - Nothing 3B - Nothing LF - Nothing CF - Buxton RF - Wallner DH - Nothing BC - Nothing UO - Nothing UI - Nothing Util - Martin? Almost every single position is a question mark with a floor well below starter caliber (2+ WAR). I'd argue 1B, 2B, SS and LF all have below replacement level potential floors. SP1 - Lopez SP2 - Ryan SP3 - Nothing SP4 - Nothing SP5 - Nothing Regardless of how fans feel about Bailey Ober, he's 30 and couldn't crack 1.5 fWAR last year with declining velo. SWR can't seem to handle a real starter's workload, and he has FIPs only a #5 workhorse could get away with. The rest of the options are just as sus in a realistic view. Closer - Nothing Setup- Nothing RP3 - Sands RP4 - Topa RP5 - Nothing RP6 - Nothing RP7 - Nothing RP8 - Nothing With the complete bullpen completely ravaged by Falvey's deadline moves, there's virtually nothing left a playoff caliber team reasonably could count on. There's nothing to "blow up" on this roster. Only potential and some aging short term assets. If the Twins are going to go all-in, sure, there's reason to keep Buxton and Lopez, maybe even Ryan. But standing pat means missing the playoffs already. This isn't likely a good team. I mean, there's certainly potential to be great, but it's just not likely they'll be good.

Almost every team to make it to the World Series has undergone a significant rebuild/reconstruction in the past decade. You either do that or you have an exceptionally high budget or both. The problem is I don't really think "Falvey" burning it down helps. The Twins have deserved only 1 playoff appearance in Falvey's entire tenure, and that's 2019. Otherwise, the team has been gifted playoff spots in what was the worst division in baseball. Since 2017 (changing now with the expanded playoffs) an 87 win team has less than a 10% shot at the playoffs. The Twins have only 1 season under Falvey with more than 87 wins. The teams he's built just aren't very good. They're "competitive" but not strong. He and his front office have not good enough to recognize and develop talent. Topping it off, Falvey's fresh out of Bill Smith and Terry Ryan drafted talent to trade away or prop up his poorly built rosters so there might not be a lot of rebuild quality on the horizon. I expect a Falvey rebuild looks an awful lot like a White Sox rebuild. We're hosed so long as Falvey remains in his position.

Plus the potential to be first in line to purchase the team or a path to increasing their stake or controlling interests etc. All kinds of potential perks. Could be anything. The ability to never allow Deshawn Keirsey to play a regular season game again might be at the top of my list of asks.

You're repeating what I posted.

Not really. The debt doesn't directly hurt running the team since it has nothing to do with the team; it just restricts the owner's overall financial situation. Where the debt really hit hard was in selling the team to try to get out from under it. If the Pohlads sold the Twins for $1.5B, that's $1.5B of pure gain. Taxes on that would be like $600MM. Net is now $900MM - $500MM of debt repayment = $400MM total net sale. Not enough to allow the Pohlads to do whatever it was they wanted to invest in next, I'm guessing. So that's why they've backed away from the sale. It doesn't really change their financial position/options enough. The Pohlad family appears to be extremely risk averse when it comes to running companies in the red to grow market base, and they've made what I feel are poor decisions based on fear.

False narrative entirely in this article. Buxton didn't change his tune on the Twins until (basically) the offseason. Buxton was the one in the locker room getting the players on board with the trade deadline moves. Buxton's willingness to waive his NTC didn't occur until it became obvious the Twins might rebuild.

The Twins' "debt" has nothing to do with the team's operations. The debt was acquired through other business transactions and failures where the Pohlad family used the Minnesota Twins as collateral. As a fake example, the Pohlads use the Minnesota Twins as collateral to secure a $500MM loan in 2015 to buy a whole boatload of JC Penny stock before it went bankrupt. Now the Twins have a $500MM loan and no assets = the Minnesota Twins are $500MM in debt. So whatever investments the Twins purchased with the loan the Pohlads took against the team could have tanked in value or the Pohlads could have taken out another $100MM in secured loans to finance other debt or investments last year. Has nothing to do with the team's operating expenses or profits.

Buxton being willing to waive his NTC probably depends on what the Twins look like after winter meetings and the direction they're going towards the end of the month. Baseball Trade Values has Buck at about +20 so like was posted above, he's not bringing back a haul on his own. In regard to what he's worth to the Twins, that probably depends on whether or not the Twins are blowing it up (if they trade Buxton, it's likely they are). Winning 65 games with Buxton vs. 60 games without him doesn't matter much.

We don't agree on a lot of stuff, but 100% on this one. Also, I'd take the Pohlads (incompetent as they are) over Glen Taylor 7 days a week, and twice on Sunday.

Elite eye is a bit optimistic. Last 5 BBs and last 5 Ks 9-21 - K5 First pitch whiff in the zone. Second, strike looking. Took outside ball. Whiff strike 3 in the zone. 9-21 - K4 Took 2 strikes looking, then a ball, struck out swinging on a pitch in the zone. Whiffed on a high ball nearly outside, took a pitch inside for ball 4. 9-18 - K3 Wild pitch ball one. Whiffed close to middle/middle on a change, strike 1. Watched strike 2 upper edge. Pitches 4-5 way inside. Pitch 6 whiffed on a changeup solidly in the zone, strike 3. 9-13 - K2 Way high, ball 1. High whiff strike 1. Watched outside corner, strike 2. Whiffed in the zone, strike 3. 9-10 - K1 Meatball looking, strike 1. Way low away, ball 1. Way outside/high ball 2. Foul on an outside pitch, strike 2. Whiff on a pitch in the zone, strike 3. Last 5 BBs 9-20 - BB5. Two pitches WAY up high, swung at borderline inside, took a walk on the 4th very bad pitch. 9-18 - BB4. Ball 1 edge of outside. Ball 2-3 way out of the zone. 9-17 - BB3. Swinging strike 1 inside edge. Took a good pitch, ball 1. Next 3 pitches, not close for a walk. 9-17 - BB2. Called strike 1, good take. Gifted a ball on a pitch in the zone. Ball 2 in the dirt. Ball 3 just low. Ball 4 in the dirt. 9-14 - BB1. Ball 1, way out of the zone. Strike looking low, okay. Strike swinging top/outside corner of zone. Ball challenge (won). Fouled off a bottom edge pitch just in the zone. Ball 3 was low. Ball 4 very low.

1. We don't know if the Twins have tried to move him and every other team has the same opinion of him I have. 2. It's not like I'm infallable or something, and there's an absolute derth of CF prospects who can hit in this league so it's entirely plausible the Twins see or think they see something I don't. 3. He's only 23 next year. Many years of experience, but still plenty room to improve. Rodriguez put up a wRC+ of 135 last year in AAA as a 22yr old, but it came with a .400 BABIP and a walk rate north of 20%. Neither of those are likely at the MLB level. Just have to see how the Twins value him, I guess.

Sonny Gray's contract was heavily backloaded. He only got paid $10MM in his first year from the Cardinals so that's a big part of this. Essentially, Boston bought Gray for 1yr and $21MM or 2yrs and $41MM. With Gray's FIP in 2024 being 3.12 and 2025 being 3.39, it doesn't bode very well for older veterans. That said, Dylan Cease just got $200MM.

.150/.250/.300 with a 10% BB rate and 50% K rate. That'll be Emma in the big show, in between his frequent IL trips. He's already burned 2 options and hasn't made an appearance. He's been utterly overwhelmed in his last two spring trainings. I wouldn't put Emma in the top 10 for Twins prospects. Even AAA pitchers throw nothing but junk at him because he'll swing at it. His walk rate is propped up by pitchers not even trying to hit the zone. That's been my view of him anyway. Make a mistake, and Rodriguez can hurt you, but if you don't make a big mistake, he's an easy out.

extra post - wouldn't load.

extra post - wouldn't load

Martin has also been slow to develop with years of uninspiring play at AA-AAA, no power, a long history of poor defensive instincts, and he couldn't hold his own for his first 257 PA at MLB when he was age 25. He seems to be a pretty good contact hitter, but he's got a lot of the plate he doesn't cover well in terms of production so there's plenty of room for regression. Martin's ceiling is hard capped due to his maybe 30 grade game power. While there seems to be some overzealous annointing of Keaschall, there's more upside there because Keaschall is only 23 next year and he has a bit more pop. I actually think Keaschall and Martin seem to have a pretty similar skill set on paper, but he was playing at age 22 where Martin was playing at age 26 with about 1,000 PA of high minors experience under his belt last year. If I'm Shelton, I'd be hoping somebody shows something in Spring Training. I wouldn't be comfortable with Martin, Outman or Roden as a starter out of the gate for a team with any aspirations to compete. Emma will get a look in Spring Training (I so hope they trade him before then) and that should wipe out any trade value Emma has when he K's 50% of the time again, now having already burned 2 options without making his case to see any MLB action.

Fans don't care about the names on jerseys in general. Attendance went up after Joe Mauer retired. Attendance went up after Johan Santana left. Attendance went up after Kirby Puckett retired. Outside of some extremely rare cases (Ohtani), fans do not pay money to see players. Fans pay money for the game day experience. The players do not matter to baseball. Sure wins and losses matter, but they also don't matter nearly as much as just having a fun atmosphere. Attendance is a chicken vs egg thing. High attendance makes the event more exciting which in turn makes it more attractive to ticket buyers. Fun ambiance, big crowds, good giveaways, those are what bring fans to the game.

No. You tell me. I provided plenty of strong evidence (playoff apperance rate, championship appearance rate, World Series appearance rate) which shows baseball is extremely competitive. Then you ask for more evidence, which is just internet code for you don't have any credible evidence to provide in support of your position, but you're unwilling to accept any debate in regard to the validity of your unfounded opinion.

It's because many Twins fans think the Twins aren't winning World Series' because of disparity in expenditures. Right now, there are multiple ways to be competitive in baseball. The Twins are lousy at all of them.

What's this competitive imbalance you're speaking of? AL East Teams having made the playoffs last 3 years. 5/5 AL Central Teams having made the playoffs last 3 years. 4/5 AL West Teams having made the playoffs last 3 years. 3/5 NL East Teams having made the playoffs last 3 years. 4/5 NL Central Teams having made the playoffs last 3 years. 3/5 NL West Teams having made the playoffs last 3 years. 3/5 22 of 30 MLB teams have been to the playoffs in the past 3 years. The AL Championship Series has 0 repeat teams for the past 3 years. The NL Championship Series has 1 repeat team for the past 3 years. The World Series has 1 repeat team in the past 3 years and only 2 repeat teams in the past 6 years. Dodgers x3, Astros x2, Diamondbacks, Rangers, Yankees, Phillies, , Rays, Braves, Blue Jays

So long as the Pohlads remain the owners, and remain unwilling to hold leadership accountable, this team doesn't have a snowballs chance in the fiery afterlife of making it to the World Series. The problem is Falvey and beyond that, the Pohlads themselves.