bean5302

Pablo Lopez is like an $8MM per season bargain, but hardly extreme. He's worth less than Sonny Gray's value when the Twins acquired Gray. Maybe 20% of the league would consider taking on another $22MM in salary at this point in the offseason. Joe Ryan has one of the higher trade values for pitchers who are speculated as "available" and he's one of the better bargains on an expected production vs. annual salary for the upcoming season. He's not remotely close to the biggest bargain in SP right now. Skenes makes $800k right now and he's twice as good as Ryan in terms of value produced. Hunter Brown is better and cheaper with more team control, Bryan Woo is cheaper with more control, etc. In terms of raw value, even a guy like Gavin Crochet is worth more than Joe Ryan in trade value despite Crochet making $28MM per year because of the added team control, and Crochet at $28MM is twice as good of a deal than Lopez at $22MM.

Matthews has the stuff to be a #2, maybe even an ace, just not a Cy Young candidate right now. From Stuff+ This is Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray and Zebby Matthews. Which pitcher do you think has the best stuff? Matthews is the top line. Lopez is #2 Ryan is #3 Gray's 2023 is #4

Meh. Fans don't care about names on the roster. The Twins could trade Lopez or Ryan today and it would make no significant difference in attendance. The Twins signed Correa and Twins attendance was lower in 2022 than in 2021 relative to the league. Sure, it gets internet forums excited, but it doesn't really put butts in the seats. It takes a major investment, then results, then re-investment to generate excitement.

MLBPA didn't value arbitration eligible players in negotiations. Instead, they've always pushed for agreements which favored stars maximizing their big free agency contracts. I do think arbitration has been especially unfair to players who have down years entering into arbitration, but arbitration is part of overall competitive balance baked into the CBA. Without full revenue sharing, instantaneous free agency would render small and mid market teams entirely to be the Dodgers AAAA farm outlet. Pre-arbitration years are often where players adapt their game prior to entering their prime. Teams spending literally millions of dollars and the better part of a decade developing these players only to watch them leave to make the Dodgers into 17x in a row World Series winners the moment they're ready is equally unfair. The arbitration models are designed to keep costs under control for small-mid market teams who can't afford their payrolls to double as a result of having a few young core players having 1 good year. I don't think the next CBA is going to completely blow everything up for the entire financial side of baseball.

Could the Twins package up Ryan or Lopez? Sure, but I think Lopez only gets moved if the Twins are willing to sign a guy like Gallen to replace Lopez and just grab some cost controlled 2.0 WAR talent ceiling back to firm up one spot on the roster. I don't see a lot of good trade partners for Ryan at this point in the season if the Twins are looking to be competitive. What the Twins need back has to be MLB caliber talent so finding a trade partner who is both looking to add MLB talent (Ryan) and give up MLB talent when rosters are largely jelled already seems unlikely. I also don't think adding any substantial salary is possible without offloading some salary at the same time. I wrote up a blueprint the other day using this site's GM tool reflecting what the Twins "could" do to field a competitive team this year.

I mean... everybody can have an opinion, but Larnach is a league average bat. Wallner has always been far superior to Larnach in terms of production at the plate. vs.

Yes, buying a pass to all 81 games is a lousy deal if you're going to attend less than 20. Buying a season pass to Valley Fair is a bad deal if you're going to go once. In general, I'm sick of the whining about the cost of attending Twins games on this site from people who could come up with a list of excuses longer than a girl not interested in a guy that is asking them out. Twins games aren't expensive to attend. The problem is they haven't been very fun to attend.

Opening day payrolls: 2017-2025 101MM 131MM 121MM 128MM 125MM 131MM 141MM 128MM 146MM While the end of 2025 saw a payroll sell off, according to thebaseballcube.com, as of opening day, 2025 had the highest payroll in Twins history. The idea the Pohlads cut payroll in Falvey's final years is BS. I realize it's 2026 and this is the internet so I should expect misinformation everywhere, but the facts are the Pohlads allowed the highest payrolls in club history for the years prior to 2026. Last single year. Last two years. Last three years. Doesn't matter. Honestly, I do think the Pohlads had a chilling effect on the payroll earlier in Falvey's tenure. When the Twins missed out on guys like Yu Darvish and Zack Wheeler due to what was reported as pushback from ownership to give out longer contracts. That's partially on ownership, but also partially on Falvey to sell them on the idea. I think if the Twins would have landed Wheeler or Darvish, we may well be singing a different tune today, but then again, when given the opportunity to keep Gray, Falvey failed to recognize the value in having a playoff caliber rotation. Maybe that was the impact of Levine on his way out? In any case, Falvey was given a team with an outstanding, cost controlled young core and he failed to build a serious threat in the playoffs. The talent level on the current MLB roster is inferior to what he inherited, and the farm system is no better. Any GM would have been expected to rebuild the front office, scouting and analytics. The fact Falvey oversaw the bare minimum isn't impressive, just a "meets expectations" part of his review.

Here's your blueprint.

Yeah, useless if you plan on giving the pass as a gift. Gets you into the game for only fricken $3 if you're planning on attending.

I suspect the MLBPA will be weighing in on this for the next CBA. Players who sign MLB contracts and are then immediately DFA'd to try to get them through waivers and blackmail them to stay in the minors isn't a good look. Historically, the process plays out with the Dobnaks of the world, but to see it actively used to bait-n-switch players while handcuffing them is BS.

Your position is that the Pohlads sets the strategy and tasked Falvey to carry it out. Cardinals owners did dictate a strategy shift and a full rebuild with deep payroll slashing at all costs. I don't think that's the same for the Twins. Falvey didn't seem to know what the payroll was going to be. It feels to me like the Pohlads likely told Falvey to present options, and ownership selected the compete in 2026 strategy presented and Falvey failed to carry out the necessary moves to realistically follow through.

I think this has far-reaching consequences for all players in their final years of arbitration, especially. This changes everything about arbitration. The old method of linear graded increases is destroyed by this decision. A perfect example is Joe Ryan. He's making $6.2MM this year, but next year, it's likely he will now command $15MM+ in arbitration. Consider Royce Lewis, who if he turns back into who he was in 2023 could easily go from $6MM to $30MM in his final year...

Couldn't make it happen realistically in my modeling. That's +$15MM on the books without the bullpen being addressed yet. It's $44MM tied up in 2 pitchers, even assuming the new projections at Gallen is going to get 2yrs $42MM-ish. Also, what's Gallen's upside? He's probably treading water in the rotation swapping Ryan for Gallen, if we're being realistic after last season. I was trading Ryan to the Nationals for CJ Abrams and James Wood, but I decided the Nationals wouldn't make the deal with only 2 years of Joe Ryan control. Even though Ryan WAS coveted across baseball, the number of teams willing to part with MLB talent the Twins really need right now is very limited. Those teams are looking to compete already so they're likely not wanting to play musical chairs with the roster at this stage when there isn't much on the FA market.

Falvey was fired for a reason. Given a budget of $200MM, he'd find a way to sign 10 has-been scrubs for $100MM of it. Ownership does not determine the methodology. They don't choose the personnel. The reason the Twins and Cardinals look different is Derek Favley. Not Tom Pohlad. Pohlad may have given the direction on the budget and the ownership expectations. "You have $110MM and we expect to be competitive this year with that budget. Present your methodology, and implement the process." Falvey signed has-been scrub DH Josh Bell for $7MM (upside down contract in BTV) when he already had Trevor Larnach of the same value for $4.7MM. He kept both instead of Eugenio Suarez for $15MM. Tom Pohlad didn't make any of those types of decisions and they represent Falvey's failures of methodologies.

Given the abominable attendance at Target Field, the chances you'll be stopped by ushers, even for some lower level seats is pretty low. I've had to kick people out of my seats endlessly from 2022-2023 (left field bleachers) before springing for club level in 2024 before the bait-n-switch payroll cut was announced. So, getting into the stadium is as good as having seats in non-premium sections if you're willing to occasionally do the walk/slide of shame. There's also the ability to reserve seats in Truly On Deck. The overlook seats are actually a very solid view, right above section 101 at Club Level height so there are ways to make Twins pass work pretty well for people as of right now. Best season ticket deals remains the left field bleachers, row 8 IMHO. $20/game. *Pros: Seats are always dry, no strong winds, shaded, a surprisingly great view of the game (you'll know immediately off the bat if it's a HR, etc), able to look up and see the monitor for close up views of replays. *Cons: No ability to view main scoreboard. No cupholders, aluminum benches freeeeeeeeeeezing cold for temps below 60*, blind spot for plays at the wall, constantly getting up to let kids run down to the front to try and get balls between innings.