Chembry

Double post...sorry

There have been several other articles written since the ones I linked...I only linked the original ones because those are the only articles that broke down the data the original poster was looking for. The newer articles build off those original ones.

I am a "front office" subscriber, so don't see those ads. I had no idea they were there.

Agreed on this! I love Fangraphs roster resource pages. I am a frequent visitor looking at all teams.

Alex Jackson's future is in his hands. He now has the option to choose minor league free agency, since he has more than 3 years of service time and not currently on the 40 man. That is unless the Twins add him to the 40 man, which they haven't done yet. Who knows if Jackson will do that or not, but it wouldn't surprise me with the way he was handled down the stretch. On the other hand, he passed through waivers 3 times with nobody claiming him. He may have to settle for a minor league deal. If that's the case, he may elect to stay for his Arb 2 year. That is a long way to say, Jackson has the option to force the Twins to make a decision on him.

MLBTR does a good job at detailing the proposals. There are a number of articles there on the CBA talks, but here are links to the initial MLB and MLBPA proposals where what you are looking for is detailed. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/05/mlbpa-releases-details-of-collective-bargaining-proposal.html https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/05/mlb-submits-initial-counterproposal-to-mlbpa.html

I like Logan Gilbert. However, he is only under team control for 1 more year, through 2027. The authors suggest ERod, Quick, and Ben Ross as the return. Personally, I think that is a big overpay. Riley Quick is arguably our top pitching prospect, certainly the most upside closest to MLB. We aren't in a position to trade our pitching prospects for a pitcher with 1 year of control, even though he is very good. It would be a different story if we trade and then extend. That type of prospect return should net someone with multiple years of team control, like Bryan Woo (under team control through 2029) or Emerson Hancock (under team control through 2030). I do think Seattle will part with Gilbert, Kirby, Hancock or Miller, but I don't think they will part with Woo. Keep in mind, they also brought up the top pitching prospect in the game, Kade Anderson, so they have a surplus of starters (Woo, Gilbert, Kirby, Anderson, Hancock, Miller) and they also have Ryan Sloan who is in AA. He is also a consensus top 10 prospect.

I haven't seen any predictions for Arraez yet. I want to say last year, MLBTR predicted 2/$24M for Arraez and he ended up on a 1yr/$12M.

MLBTR has said in chat sessions that Jeffers should land in the neighborhood of $17-19M/yr as an AAV. If I am recalling correctly from a chat a few weeks ago, one writer made a prediction of 4/$72M.

Based on the quotes I saw from the end of the season press conference, Tom Pohlad has given Zoll the green light to extend a QO to Jeffers. It's now up to Zoll to decide if the late season struggles muddy those waters a bit. I still think it's prudent to extend a QO.

Should the Twins be any different than any other MLB team bringing up their top prospects this year? Here is a list of top prospects that were called up after the all-star break and the list includes the #1 pitching prospect in Kade Anderson: Kade Anderson, Mariners (MLB#5, Fangraphs #3), Lazaro Montes, Mariners (MLB#53, Fangraphs #79), George Lombard Jr, Yankees (MLB #14, Fangraphs #17), Angel Genao, Guardians (MLB#29, Fangraphs #10), Joshua Baez, Cardinals (MLB #56), Josue De Paula, Dodgers (MLB #6, Fangraphs #16), Max Clark, Tigers (MLB #13, Fangraphs #7), Ethan Salas, Padres, (MLB #21, Fangraphs #11). Michael Arroyo, Mariners (MLB #42, Fangraphs #68), Leo Bernal, Cardinals (MLB #99), Hagan Smith, White Sox (Fangraphs #64), Brody Hopkins, Rays (Fangraphs #45) Several of them didn't help their MLB teams make the postseason either. Josue De Paula made his debut September 11th. Thus isn't eligible for the postseason unless petitioned to MLB, so why bring him up? To add to that, De Paula went from AA to MLB, skipping AAA... I am not including prospects that made their debut prior to the all-star break or broke camp with their teams, but 39 prospects made their debut this year at age 22 or younger. If there was an extended lockout, many if not all would benefit from playing MiLB camp/games. Every team called up one of their top prospects at some point this year, with the exception of the Red Sox, Rockies, Royals, and Rangers (most of their high end prospects are at lower levels). All teams are operating as if there won't be an extended lockout. The point is, should the Twins be treated or operate differently than every other MLB team?

If that is how you feel, why are you providing the same comments on just about every thread about prospects? Why not just skip commenting? Why waste your valuable time?

I can't speak for Cody, but Gleeman stated on his podcast ~1 month ago, give or take a bit of time, that someone from the Twins spoke off the record about the QO. At that time, it was viewed as closer to 50/50. Now that viewpoint may have changed since or the situation may have been misread. Who knows, but I bet the conversations won't stop within the Twins until the decision has to be made.

Extending a QO to Jeffers is the only way to justify not trading him. Otherwise you let him walk for nothing. At least we could get a comp pick if he declines. Jeffers is probably going to get 4yrs/$70-80M. The best comp is probably JT Realmuto who was coming off back to back 2.8 and 2.5 WAR seasons when he signed at 3/$45M, but he was also 35 at the time. Jeffers will be 29. JT grades out better defensively, but Jeffers grades out better offensively at the time Realmuto signed. Wilson Contreras is another comp. He signed a 5/$87.5M for his age 31 season. He was coming off a 3.8 WAR season. At the time of that signing, Contreras was coming off a .243/.349/.815/126 OPS+ season, while Jeffers is at .259/.360/836/134 OPS+. Contreras was better defensively, but has now switched to 1B. Additionally, Jeffers is far and away the best catcher in this free agent class, which may create a bidding war. We know the Yankees need a catcher and they will pay.

I don't think Jeffers is a crazy idea at 1B, but it would be weird to have your best catcher at 1B...LOL!! And that is if the Twins either resign him or he accepts a QO. The FA list at 1B is horrendous. Here is the list: Ryan Mountcastle, Andrew Vaughn, Carlos Santana, Paul Goldschmidt, Josh Bell (mutual option), and Christopher Morel. Yandy Diaz was included on this list, but he reached his vesting option. Andrew Vaughn wasn't very good until he was demoted by the CWS and traded to MIL. Mountcastle hasn't been very good since 2024 and only played in 8g in 2026. Goldschmidt continues to destroy LHP with a 1.012 OPS against LHP in 174 PA for 2026, but was horrendous against RHP. He is also 39. If we want to upgrade at 1B, it would likely come via trade and there are too many options to consider. I think it might be best to move Clemens to 1B. I am also ok moving on from Royce.