Chembry

Holliday struggled this year for sure. He broke his hamate bone in spring training and had a rough recovery. He started and stopped rehab assignments multiple times and went back to a wrist specialist. I think the big difference is Holliday is still only 22. I might be tempted to pursue that trade knowing Holliday still has upside.

If that were to happen, and its a big if, I would put Westburg at 2B and move Clemens to 1B. That significantly improves our IF defense. When Houston is ready, the IF could be adjusted. Move Clemens to a utility role and Westburg could go to 1B.

At the top of my list would be Samuel Basallo…but his price would be STEEP! Jordan Westburg, when healthy, has been well above average offensively and defensively. In two seasons he has produced a 126 and 115 OPS+. When healthy is the key….he missed all of 2026 after having TJ surgery in May and had a few other 10-day IL stints. He could probably be acquired fairly cheap given his injury history and under control for 3 more years. I might be willing to discuss Jackson Holiday as well…depending on the cost to acquire.

JT Realmuto coming off a 2.5 WAR season, playing in 134g got 3yr/$45M ($15M AAV)...and he was 34 at the time of signing. Willson Contreras signed for 5yr/$87.5M ($17.5M AAV) coming off a 3.8 WAR season playing in 113g. He got that contract with similar defensive concerns as Jeffers and with the QO attached. If you compare Contreras' offensive stats through his first 1604 plate appearances to Jeffers 1693 plate appearances since 2023, their stats are almost identical: Jeffers: .254/.342/.440 Contreras: .249/.349/.467 Jeffers put up 2.8WAR (according BBref) in 92 games, which was down due to the hamate injury. If you extrapolate that 2.8 WAR out to 120g, which is about where Jeffers was the previous 2 years, that puts him at 3.65 WAR. He is far and away the best FA catcher on the market. Personally, I am not saying he will get 4/$75M, but I do think he will be closer to the MLBTR number than the Fangraphs number. Only time will tell.

You're right. They aren't always correct. They may be off in total years, close in terms of AAV. But more often than not, they are within a few million in terms of AAV.

MLBTR has been consistent in their predictions in chats as well as their annual top 50 FA list. They are predicting 4yr/$75M.

I like Bauers, but was really surprised he was extended the QO, given he only performed at that level for 1 year. Personally, I don't really want the Twins to pursue Bauers, but understand if they do. I think he accepts the QO and returns to MIL. In my opinion, Brandon Lowe would be the FA I target, regardless of QO or not. He is coming off back to back 30HR seasons. He is an everyday middle of the order bat with perennial 25+ HR power. I am a bit skeptical of the defensive improvements he made, but he can also play 1B. So if he turns back into a pumpkin at 2B there is a fall back option. Also, when Houston enters the equation in either late 2027 or 2028, Lowe can either shift to 1B or DH. The other 2 QO recipients that could be considered are Suzuki or Arozarena. I don't see the Twins shopping in that aisle though. But if they do, a RH OF bat could be worked around with Buxton, Jenkins, ERod, and shifting Keaschall to 1B since he has experience there. That leaves Roden as the odd man out, but I suspect everyone would take that trade off. All 3 of Lowe, Suzuki, and Arozarena are predicted by MLBTR to make between $23-26M/yr AAV, so they are in the same ballpark.

I know several around here want the Twins to sign Jake Bauers as well, but he was also extended the QO.

I wouldn't say it's about a 2B. Given the defensive flexibility of Clemens, I would argue that it's signing the best FA that could be at 1B or 2B. In fact, Clemens is a better defender at 1B. That's not limited to FA signing, as I would include trade as well. The FA market has several good 2B which only opens up options. Two of the potential FA 2B have played 1B previously (Brandon Lowe, and Luis Arraez). In my opinion, there are really only two decent 1B FA options in Jake Bauers and Ty France. France has already come out and stated that he wants to stay in SD. You don't want to rely on Houston to coming up mid year. You really want him to force his way up and at that point, re-evaluate. At that point, Clemens probably moves to a UTIL role, which he is well suited for. There is plenty of room for a 1B or 2B (either by FA or trade) without "blocking" Houston.

Abreu would be a valuable addition to our bullpen. We already know the Twins like him, they thought they traded for him. I just don't think the Twins will commit the likely at least 2yr and the likely $12-15M AAV he is going to command. Personally, I like Evan Phillips better and may be more attainable given he is older and coming off a shortened season recovering from TJ surgery. However in the 26 innings he pitched from July through playoffs, his stuff was as good as pre-TJ.

I don't know if SDP is willing to part with C depth, but since it was widely reported that SDP had interest in Larnach at the deadline, it may be worth revisiting those discussions. I am guessing the Twins were asking for MLB RP and SDP wasn't willing to give that up. That is speculation on my part given the Twins were solely focused on improving the BP.

Nothing against Ben Rortvedt, but here is where I am at...We know San Diego had significant interest in Larnach at the deadline. We don't know what the Twins were asking for in return at that time, but can probably speculate they were looking for MLB RP in return, especially given the nixed Abreu deal. Since SDP now has Salas up and had some success (albeit only 39 ABs), they may be willing to move either Fermin or Campusano. MLBTR predicted Fermin to make $2.6M (Arb2) is under team control through 2029, while Campusano is predicted to made $1.7M (Arb2) and under team control through 2028. Neither is going to light up the stat sheet offensively, but both are quite good at controlling the running game. Plus would be nice to get something of value for Larnach. I would like to keep Jackson as depth. If he isn't added back on the 40 man he can choose minor league free agency. Maybe they can bring him back on a minor league deal if that happens, instead of going through arbitration.

I have watched Matt Shaw play quite a bit, at both the MLB and MiLB level. He hasn't played a ton of 2B, 400 innings total between MLB and MiLB, but was average there defensively. He is a very good defender at 3B, he was a GG finalist in 2025. With the signing of Bregman, Shaw was relegated to a UTIL role and bounced around quite a bit. In the minors, he was high average/OBP, low K rate, high BB rate type of guy, and he is fast and athletic. I am not sure he would help the IF defense as Brooks is well above average defensively at 3B. What he does bring is a better UTIL profile than Ryan Kreidler or Ben Ross, with another 5 years of team control. Offensively, he has a similar OPS and OPS+ as Brooks. Shaw's OPS is driven by a higher OBP, while Brooks OPS is driven by a higher SLG. It may be nice to have another Keaschall type of guy, around for another 5 years. On the other hand, if we were to trade Ryan to the Cubs, I would shoot higher than Shaw. Like Michael Bush or Owen Ayers.

They can't trade Jeffers now. The trade deadline was August 3rd. MLB contracts can't be traded after the deadline. They open 2 days after the end of the World Series. Jeffers will become a free agent the day after the world series ends.

Double post...sorry