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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Miami hasn't been relevant in a long time, either. Indiana is showing Minnesota what a ranked team winning coach should look like. Sure isn't PJ Fleck.
  2. bean5302
    This site is designed to pay its writers and staff and the ads/popups are part of that process. The ads and popups can be difficult to navigate on mobile apps, but if you're logged in as a caretaker, the ads and popups aren't an issue. The topic really belongs in Twins Daily Questions About the Site rather than in baseball forums.
  3. bean5302
    and my comment had a lot more to do with the general perception of Culpepper around the site than this article in specific. Culpepper is presumed to be ready for the challenge and it's on the Twins to promote him fast enough is how I read it. The downvotes on my comment are enought to solidify my point IMHO. Culepper is already annointed as the next guaranteed SS superstar around these parts. He's an exciting prospect who has really turned some heads, but the way he's being projected is way too aggressive. His production at AA was not exceptional, he was not "great" he was "good" with Culpepper being the 59th ranked AA player with 200+ PA in terms of wRC+. Culpepper probably needs another full year of MiLB time to polish his game a bit and prove he's ready for the big show in AAA.
  4. bean5302
    and the leadership has been very short with their leashes. Have a bad 2 weeks to a month? Back to the minors you go! Even if that does please fans, it's not a great strategy, IMHO. I think a lot of this has to do with just how bad Falvey's roster construction has been. When the Twins have 5-6 poor performing hitters in the lineup and they're losing games, the pressure is on to perform or scapegoat.
  5. bean5302
    Unless Dominguez has a bad start to the year or gets hurt, in which case they may not be able to get out from under the contract so easy. Both are high risks with a reliever like Dominguez.
  6. bean5302
    I get being angry, but you're comparing 3 completely and entirely different ownership types. The Pohlads signed off on a 6yr $200MM contract for Correa. They signed off on 10yrs and $285MM for Correa before Carlos initially signed with the Giants before that. The worst thing about the Pohlads is keeping Falvey employed.
  7. bean5302
    High end prospects are always substantially younger than their roster-filling MiLB non-prospect competition. Players who have the talent don't typically stay long at those levels. It's not so much Hill's polish vs. other player polish, it's the fact Hill went from high school to competing against talents who are better than the best NCAA teams in the country. It's a huge leap and Hill's stuff still played.
  8. bean5302
    Three Twins prospects last year in AA. Two forced their way into AAA and struggled immediately. The third ended the year in AA. Tanner Schobel Walker Jenkins Kaelyn Culpepper If Culpepper is the savior and next guaranteed big ticket, he should really be hitting more like Walker Jenkins in AA, and less like being indistinguishable from Tanner Schobel. Culepper had a really great season and far exceeded expectations from a lot of prospect scouts, but this site is way too bullish on him being ready right now or likely before 2027 IMHO.
  9. bean5302
    I know what you're saying. Even I'm not sure at this point, lol. MLBTR is a very good source!
  10. bean5302
    Hill has a very high ceiling right now, but we probably won't really know a ton about him until he gets to AA. The combination of super high K and high BB rates can either mean Hill's stuff is truly outstanding or he's just feasting on inexperienced and unpolished hitters willing to chase outside the zone. He'll be potentially an exciting prospect to follow this season!
  11. bean5302
    I was pretty sure the 2022 CBA changed a rule regarding that. If Jackson went to arbitration, it wouldn't be guaranteed. If he settled to avoid arbitration, it IS guaranteed. At least from my understanding.
  12. bean5302
    This is why I like BTV. Ober's value is higher than SWR despite having a lot less control and a higher salary because Ober projects as a much better pitcher. BTV has been a very accurate site when it comes to assessing how teams might match established players and well known prospects up in terms of value. If you're adding Lee, Wallner or Lewis, they're the headliners, not Ober/SWR. The Cubs would jump at a Royce Lewis & SWR or Ober trade.
  13. bean5302
    Castro has the tools to excel at 3B. If the Rockies choose to deploy him there consistently, I believe Castro will become an asset at the position. It's a nice contract given how last year ended up.
  14. bean5302
    0% chance. There's no incentive for him to accept the assignment. Since the contract was signed to avoid arbitration, the contract is guaranteed. If he refuses the assignment, any new team can pick him up and Jackson is still guaranteed at least as much as the Twins contract. This means any other team can sign Jackson for MLB minimum, but the the Twins will have to pay the balance and Jackson goes to the big show.
  15. bean5302
    Agreed. This very much feels like a Jeffers trade is coming now that Realmuto is off the market.
  16. bean5302
    Grandfathering worked great for the Wild when they signed Parise and Suter. That said, MLB will bend over backwards for their precious cash cow so nothing is going to happen which will annoy the Dodgers too much, I don't think.
  17. bean5302
    I think BaseballTradeValues has shown teams can overpay a bit at the deadline in general (Jose Berrios to Toronto was viewed as an overpay by the Blue Jays at the time), but the general trade value of players seems to be fairly reliable. The calculation BTV uses is projected future production under the contract/team control (some sort of WAR) * the general dollar value per WAR (about $8MM in free agency) less the total outstanding guaranteed contract dollars OR the projected arbitration model if the player isn't on a guaranteed contract. Joe Ryan's current value is 52.5MM on BTV about 3.8 WAR per year at $8MM/WAR (60.5MM in production over 2 years) and $8MM in salary (which is broken in BTV right now, should be about $15MM $6MM +$9MM). so the current surplus value for Joe Ryan would be 60.5-15 = $45.5MM Joe Ryan at the trade deadline would be about +31 figuring 60% of the season is over (1.5 WAR + 3.8 WAR)*8 - (2.5MM + 9MM). At the end of the year, it would be 3.8WAR*8 - 9MM = 21.4. That's assuming Joe Ryan has another full and excellent season. There is no chance the Twins get anything close to current value for Ryan at the deadline IMHO.
  18. bean5302
    Move over, Killer, we're missing Alex Kirilloff. Guaranteed unanimous 1st ballot HoF'er if only he was healthy. You can tell which games he was healthy for because he'll have a wRC+ of at least 150 in all of them. If his wRC+ is below 150, he was hurt for that game.
  19. bean5302
    Probably trade for and extend Ryan Fitzgerald to 2yrs $12MM now that he's been DFA'd.
  20. bean5302
    Tucker signed for $200-250MM less than predicted. Nobody in MLB wants to pay out big contracts right now so the Dodgers swooped in. The $60MM/yr thing is probably more like $40MM/yr with $20MM/yr for 4 years in deferrals or something like that.
  21. bean5302
    MLBTR predicted 11yrs and $400MM. Spotrac's Market Value was 12yrs at $498MM. The 4yr/$240MM deal probably has a massive amount of deferred money as well. I'd wager $80MM? So the Dodgers are signing Tucker at way, way under predictions says more about the rest of the league than the Dodgers.
  22. bean5302
    Ryan's value today +50MM. Ryan's value at the trade deadline +30MM. Ryan's value in the offseason +20MM. Ryan's value on March 1st if he gets hurt and needs TJ = 0MM It's a fools game to count your chickens before they hatch (target the trade deadline for value recovery). A good GM has a plan to either compete or to find out what they need to compete. Falvey is doing neither.
  23. bean5302
    Guy's team has missed the playoffs 4 of the past 5 years in one of the weakest divisions in sports all with declining attendance despite opening day payrolls of the highest in the division. All while being promoted, lol. 3 years ago we heard from former spokesman, Joe Pohlad, how status quo wasn't good enough. Making the playoffs wasn't good enough anymore. Yeah, I'll believe it when I see it.
  24. bean5302
    Falvey never lets a reliever go back to the rotation. Duran and Jax both wanted an opportunity to start again. Jax was highly vocal about it. If Prielipp goes to the 'pen, that's it. He's a reliever for life with this organization. The aforementioned success stories are about letting a pitcher prove they can't make it as a starter (where they would have dramatically higher value) and move them the 'pen when they can't hold a rotation spot. Heck, a guy who gets pushed out of the rotation by a slightly better #5 is still worth more in trade value than a fairly high end relief pitcher.
  25. bean5302
    Baseball Savant shows Prielipp was throwing 94-95mph with a 4 seamer (touched 96), 92-95mph with a sinker, 86-89mph with the changeup and 81-87 with the slider. There was a lot of variance in Prielipp's pitch velo over his last 3 starts in AAA. Could be equipment related or him tiring down a little or just mechanics. Prielipp's walk rate was too high at AAA, but it was his first full year back after TJ. I expect him to show what he can do this year. In terms of stuff, the elite K rate dropped off in AA/AAA to merely excellent. Could Prielipp be the answer to a closer need? Sure. He "might" be a legitimate closer, but he has seems to have starter caliber stuff. A closer at his very best provides the same value as a #4 rotation arm. Prielipp could potentially replace Joe Ryan or Pablo Lopez in the rotation with a small step forward. Or he could be totally exposed against MLB hitters. Forcing starters into the bullpen because you traded away your entire bullpen isn't a good strategy.
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