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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Thanks for sharing your opinion that other people shouldn't have opinions. Since nobody should have an opinion about baseball here, did you join to discuss things like who makes the best corn dogs at the State Fair?
  2. bean5302
    I like this choice. The Twins chose a bona fide catcher rather than an athlete who might be able to play catcher. Less hubris regarding a position the Twins are absolutely desperate to address.
  3. bean5302
    I like the adjustments a lot! Video editing is far more tedious than people realize. To top it off, what makes content work on a site like Twins Daily will make it "not work" on a short clip consumption platform like TikTok. It forces 3x the amount of time investment into editing to have a multi-platform video. You did some impressively quick editing there. It can take me an hour or more to make significant edits, save, export, and upload a video. Then, if it's a longer video, waiting for youtube to finish the HD version can be a pain. I wind up watching it over and over again tinkering before I upload. My average 10-20min videos for youtube take 2+hrs to cut together. Shorter videos don't save a ton of time as much as people might think, either. Getting the video concentrated down to 30-120 seconds while sharing the meat of the content is incredibly difficult. Tons and tons of cutting and editing.
  4. bean5302
    Gomez doesn't look sustainable at all to me. Mediocre walk and strikeout rates, combined with plenty of loud contact. I don't like FIP without considering the type of contact. FIP treats a 100mph exit velocity 400 ft warning track fly ball deep to center the same as a 20mph roller to the pitcher or a soft infield pop up. If xFIP is going to be way different than FIP, I want to see a high pop up rate, and that's not the case here. Tons of fly balls and not many popups. That's a recipe for a lot of home runs which is why his xFIP is 4.63. Even if I want to be generous and look to xERA, Gomez is at 3.50 with a 3.90 SIERA. He's due for major regression. He's not a prototypical closer candidate. Morris' raw stuff is beloved by Stuff+ and PitchingBot, but it certainly doesn't seem to fool hitters much. Contact rates are high, whiffs are low, and chase rates in general, are below average. Opposing hitters haven't been able to barrel his stuff, but they're not missing by much. The pop up rate is very poor, but he's insulated from a high HR rate by the fact he generates quite a bit of ground ball results. He's an xERA darling 2.98 and SIERA 3.37 likes him as a potential setup guy. xFIP is more pessimistic at a still decent 3.71 mark. Morris gets out ahead of hitters a lot so he should be able to finish them off easier. I think he could go either way. Honestly, it's tough to point to any Twins reliever being a trusted source of outs when it matters.
  5. bean5302
    Our MLB philosophy has been driven by the way our front office values talent and the overall organizational strategy on how to win baseball games. That same philosophy is how MiLB baseball players get valued. Our MLB team is a result of our front office's strategy. Play terrible, awful, horrible defense so long as you can stand at 9 different positions and look like you might belong there before any batted balls happen. The ability to stand at random positions is where value comes from!!! Platoon bats give us an advantage because opposing teams cannot change pitchers. Switch hitters are always just as good from either side of the plate because... platoon splits are absolute! Change hitting philosophies every year after the weaknesses of the one size fits all philosophy from the previous year is exposed. Blame it on the hitting coach for teaching the strategy you directed. Relief pitchers are guaranteed. Any starter in the minors can instantly be an elite MLB reliever. Pitcher talent is the only thing which matters in MiLB. Polish is not needed. So long as they can get MiLB hitters out, it'll translate to MLB automatically. Drafting elite pitchers is a waste unless you mean to convert them to a reliever because you forgot you needed some of those after trading them all away. You can just draft an 89mph fastball college arm in round 12, teach them to throw 95 and they'll for sure be an ace. If you do make the mistake of drafting a rotation arm early, trade them to shore up your shortfalls in talent evaluation and payroll allocation to get a year or two of a good starter. In case it's not evident, I think our front office is devoid of wisdom in how to run a baseball team.
  6. bean5302
    The information presented in the video would be more valuable slowed down with an added text explanation... and there's a lot of free music out there. Jr. Varsity high school band practice isn't the one I would have chosen, haha. Anyway, good stuff is presented. I've found Movavi to be inexpensive and pretty easy to use to create good videos with plenty of free audio. Since you might be using this for TD, I think it's more like $400 for a commercial license, though. Back to Roden. He's been swinging (2025-2026) at like 33% of pitches out of the zone and only 60% of pitches in the zone. Both well below MLB average. His contact rates for pitches outside the zone is pretty abysmal, but inside the zone it's very good. I think his plate adjustments are trying to make the absolute most of his talent. Polish has probably carried him as far as it can, we'll just have to see how he performs over the next 100-200 PA to get a better feel for whether his pitch recognition skills will be good enough for MLB.
  7. bean5302
    Hopefully, Quick can bring back at least one to two more more lefty DHs who can also either stand at first base or a corner outfield spot.
  8. bean5302
    The drafting/development philosophy focused on velocity might be hitting the end of the curve. It sure seems like velo is everything these days. Got a 98mph fastball and one other questionable pitch? Welcome to the upper minors.
  9. bean5302
    The Brewers are drawing 32k per game x 81 games 2.6MM. They're not getting to 3MM unless they have a deep playoff run, which they very well may. They're on pace for 103 wins or so. The Twins are drawing 21k per game x 81 games 1.7MM and 25k over their past 10 home games (propped up heavily by the Dodgers series). They're on pace for 79 wins. The Rockies are drawing 28k per game x 81 games 2.3MM. They're on pace to win 65 games. They're probably the worst team in baseball over the past decade. They always draw well. Denver is a mid-market base. Drawing fans is about the game day experience.
  10. bean5302
    Houston continuing to hold his own in AA is nice to see. If he can keep it up, I'd expect him to start 2027 in St. Paul. It's the kind of performance I think people hoped for from Noah Miller, who is back on a tear in AAA for the Dodgers after an ice cold month from late May to late June following an IL trip for a knee problem. Miller has clearly made a massive change to his game. He's looking like a legitimate MLB prospect again.
  11. bean5302
    Interesting to see Hendriks still trying to make it back. He was wild in ST with the Twins, but after another lengthy build up with the Cubs, seems like his command was way better last night. Fastball has dropped further though. Hendriks was sitting 93-94mph in Spring Training with us, sat at 92-93mph last night against the Saints. Way off from his 97-98mph heyday, and his FB was a critical component to his success. That said, maybe enough left in the tank to get a call up somewhere and eat some middle innings like a Taylor Rogers?
  12. bean5302
    Bradley. Not even a question. Jax is looking like he might stick as a starter, but he's got a long way to go to be as good as a starter as what Bradley is doing right now, and with much more team control
  13. bean5302
    I never said a manager couldn't use talent improperly.
  14. bean5302
    The question of a Joe Ryan trade has a few facets, but the biggest question is whether this team's competitive window is open with the roster we have? I'd say probably not. There are too many holes.
  15. bean5302
    By what metric? He's been below average to lousy by the data driven ones.
  16. bean5302
    I suspect the play by play vs. analyst broadcasts would appeal to different demographics. In the day and age we have, there are a lot of folks who enjoy the "react" videos which go off topic, etc. There are also going to be a lot of purists who want the full play-by-play, pitch-by-pitch details where it just feels comforting and "right."
  17. bean5302
    Orze can always be DFA'd! No options needed :)
  18. bean5302
    Orze has 4 of the 11 blown saves for the Twins this year. That's on Shelton putting Orze out there in positions where he can lose the game.
  19. bean5302
    Falvey has made a number of major changes to his drafting philosophy over the years as he failed over and over again. As Falvey failed, the coaches would get the blame and sent packing along with a changed draft/development strategy implementation. I'm not sure about Zoll, but from what I've seen, he's Derek Falvey 2.0. The same types of methodology this front office has always employed continued after Falvey's firing and during the season. For example, Falvey avoided drafting pitchers high in early years, preferring to concentrate on bat only mashers (Rooker, Larnach, Sabato, Wallner). Later, Falvey increasingly focused on high contact and more athletic players and was much more aggressive in the pitching area. This corresponded with moves away from the 3 outcome hitters the Twins had been trying to build around and the failure to develop any quality pitching. Just have to see what happens.
  20. bean5302
    Lee has posted negative OAA, FRV and rPM at 3B. He's neutral in DRS, but he'll be negative by year end. He has a weak arm and below average range. He's not going to be a good 3B, but he'll probably be serviceable. 3B list from Fangraphs. Lee is 17th of 23 which is close to bottom quartile. That's with a lot of luck at the plate. My expectation is by the end of the year Lee will have 0.5 WAR or less.
  21. bean5302
    Larnach is probably like a +12 surplus player right now. Teams looking to add aren't also trading MLB talent back. MLB for MLB trades don't generally happen. Larnach was a non-tender candidate not because he wasn't worth $5MM, but because he wasn't worth $5MM to the Twins and the front office has been utterly incompetent when it comes to trading guys like Larnach when they could.
  22. bean5302
    re: Young Fangraphs had him at #19 coming into the season, but yeah, fell completely off the top 40 at mid-year. He's got some massive adjustments to make as a high school pick who already has the deck stacked against him at SS. Shortstops need quickness above all else, and getting a long lever like Winokur or Young moving is very difficult. High school shortstop fielding methodology is also dramatically different from MLB shortstop fielding methodology. The whole one knee down let the ball come to you fundamentals isn't a thing in the pro levels. His eye at the plate recognizing balls and strikes seems okay as he's chasing only 28.6% of the time, but he's just awful at making contact. Having such a huge strike zone, and his overall swing mechanics seems to be a big issue. Since the Twins don't recognize the value in defense, they'll probably continue to try to make him into something he's not.
  23. bean5302
    I hope he does great! You're not going to find me rooting against players, just not expecting great things from a lot of guys based on expected metrics and observed limitations sometimes.
  24. bean5302
    Top 50 prospects since 2011 for the Twins include a few familiar mega-hyped MVP candidates like. Absolute flops: Kohl Stewart (peaked #36), Alex Meyer (peaked #29), Nick Gordon (peaked #33), Alex Kirilloff (peaked #9), Austin Martin (peaked #22), Future: Emmanuel Rodriguez (peaked #37), Walker Jenkins (peaked #3), Kaelen Culpepper (peaked #32), Eduardo Tait (peaked #39) Jury is out, but looking thin/bust: Royce Lewis (peaked #5), Brooks Lee (peaked #18) Thin careers, but not total busts: Aaron Hicks (peaked #39), Miguel Sano (peaked #4) Major success stories: Kyle Gibson (peaked #40), Byron Buxton (peaked #1), Jose Berrios (peaked #19), Max Kepler (peaked #44)
  25. bean5302
    Woo-Suk Go is unable to throw strikes, and hitters don't chase his stuff out of the zone. For Detroit's AAA club, Go only managed a abysmal 39% first pitch strike rate. That's going nowhere at the MLB level.
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