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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    If you ignore the first 1/3rd of the season last year, sure, Bell is a good DH, but it turns out teams care about wins and losses in all the months, not just a few of them. Bell's been a league average bat generating no value above replacement level for 3 years now. He's also a poor defender at 1B so he's really a DH by default. He was likely a very poor signing by the Twins and represents just plain wasted money. Larnach is in the same boat. A poor defender in corner outfield, and with no other defensive experience, he's really a DH by default. Larnach is best platooned to provide significant value vs. right handed pitching, but he's a black hole for run production against lefties based on his limited exposure. Wallner is likely a good DH, but he has the physical skill set to excel in the outfield, too. Wallner's awkward adjustments during routes and indecision make him a candidate to move to DH if he can't improve. An average corner outfielder is worth 1 win over a DH with the same bat. It's a big difference. Gio Gonzalez probably makes for a DH due to his conditioning issues, but word is he worked on being younger Eddie Rosario instead of older Eddie Rosario this past offseason. He could wind up being a solid corner outfielder as well. Personally, I'm in favor of giving Wallner some time in RF to evaluate how he's improved (if at all) before moving him to DH and opening the position up to somebody else.
  2. bean5302
    Whereas the anti-Wallner information is sourced directly from the rear end of enraged Twins fans looking for scapegoats.
  3. bean5302
    Lee understands nothing. 6'2" and 215lbs? Drop 30lbs of body-builder, looks only muscle. Beeeeefffffcake doesn't add quickness or speed. I'm not sure where this quote came from, but he's not known for a strong arm and has never been known for a strong arm. Even when he was drafted, it was expected his arm wouldn't play at SS.
  4. bean5302
    The statement was based on Wallner's rank compared to other hitters in MLB for wOBA. It also holds true for wRC+ or OPS+. Wallner's wRC+ 133 is ranked 19th in all of MLB for players with 600+ PA over the past 3 years. If 19th most productive hitters in all of baseball is "one of the best" by your standards, I don't think you should be lost. Wallner's wRC+, wOBA, xwOBA, and OPS+ are all higher than Byron Buxton over the past 3 years, for example. wRC+ 133 vs. 127 wOBA .361 vs .351 xwOBA .350 vs .343 OPS+ 129 vs 126
  5. bean5302
    NYCTK was focusing on the irony about how Emma is lauded around here for having a similar profile as the much lambasted Outman.
  6. bean5302
    Hopefully, Wallner doesn't have another bad hamstring injury slowing him down this season. He had been very durable up until last year, and being able to run normally should help him on defense. Supposedly, Trevor Plouffe was working with Wallner on something, though it wasn't clarified what that something was. The K rate will probably come down a bit as Wallner matures as a hitter and gets more experience. He'll likely always have a lot of swing and miss, but the power is real. I think there's a good chance he's a 4 WAR kind of guy in right field over a full season or a 3 WAR designated hitter if he can't get the awkward movement out of his fielding game. Worst case scenario is he's a 1.5-2.0 WAR DH, IMHO, and they do not grow on trees so it's still valuable.
  7. bean5302
    The 20% BB rate basically doesn't exist in MLB. Soto has pulled it off in recent seasons, but with a 15% K rate. Aaron Judge has gotten close, but with the most dangerous bat in the sport. Rodriguez is most similar to Eddie Julien. Passive, and for all the talk about his big power, Emma has managed to be a fairly light hitter in AAA with a mixed ISO around .150 across 250 PA. The fact is, he hasn't shown much in the way of game power at the top level of the minors where pitchers make fewer mistakes and are more polished. The meatball or nothing approach absolutely will not work at the MLB level, and his 43% K rate in spring training this year doesn't bode well. Obviously, I'm not a huge proponent of Emma. I haven't been for a couple years now as I view him as the kind of batter who depends on mistakes, and who can't handle good pitches. He's got some raw tools, but he also has like 7 years as a professional in the Twins' system.
  8. bean5302
    WAR is a junk stat for Berrios. Not sure how BBref is calculating their WAR anymore, but Berrios seems to be broken. He's given Toronto 5+ innings and an ERA of 3.99 or lower in 60% of his starts since he's been there. Similar to Pablo Lopez's time with the Twins.
  9. bean5302
    Emma's striking out 43% against MiLB guys and roster filler. Mickey Gasper was .308/.417/.487 OPS .904 wRC+ 141 in Spring Training last year. This year, he's .400/.500/.842 OPS .1342 wRC+ 231. Can't wait for Gasper's MVP this year. Holding my breath.
  10. bean5302
    If Matt Wallner followed that path he'd be a potential MVP this year. 6th highest wRC+ among outfielders with 600+ PA in MLB over the past 3 years. Guy gets absolutely trashed around here, though.
  11. bean5302
    There have only been about 47 articles about extending Joe Ryan. He's about to get a LOT more expensive. We've seen the free agency comparison clause for Arb 3 players now with Tarik Skubal this past season. Joe Ryan is going to get close to $20MM in Arb 3 next year using the current CBA model. There's far, far less incentive for him to take a discount now. Same issue as Lopez. Durability concerns, controlled through age 31 already, The Twins don't have a big budget and Ryan isn't really pitcher you want leading a playoff rotation, though he certainly looked better last year than Lopez. That said, a team is likely going to give him $125-$150MMish at $25MM/yr.
  12. bean5302
    Last I checked, Toronto had about a .600 winning percentage when Berrios started the game. Berrios was injured last year and he still started 30 games. Berrios with Toronto has been similar to Pablo Lopez with Minnesota in terms of going out there and giving his team a good shot to win the game. Not an ace, but Berrios isn't earning ace money, either. 5.0 IP, 3.99 ERA or less. 80/138 = 58% Berrios - 6/12 ('21), 17/32 ('22), 20/32 ('23), 21/32 ('24), 16/30 ('25) 48/78 = 62% Lopez - 19/32 ('23), 19/32 ('24), 10/14 ('25) 87/133 = 65% Valdez - 7/12 ('21), 21/31 ('22), 21/31 ('23), 18/28 ('24), 20/31 ('25) 63/126 = 50% Nola - 4/12 ('21), 18/32 ('22), 15/32 ('23), 20/33 ('24), 6/17 ('25) Berrios doesn't get much love from WAR, but he goes out there and pitches a ton of innings and usually leaves the game with his team in a good position to win. Cutting at the last 12 games of 2021 (same as Berrios in Toronto), compared to Framber Valdez 3-5yrs at $115-180MM or Aaron Nola 7yrs $172MM, Berrios' 7yr $131MM extension for Toronto is pretty reasonable.
  13. bean5302
    The floor for left field is probably 1.0 WAR. The midpoint from the opening day likely guys is probably like 1.5 WAR and the ceiling is more like 2.0 WAR. Basically, left field will likely be adequate for a competitive team, but it's also probably not helping the Twins make the playoffs or anything.
  14. bean5302
    Yeah, it's really a 1yr $8.25MM contract, but I think MLR's point is Bell was getting good results in the 2nd half. So yeah, if Bell has a remarkable resurgence at the plate this year following his 2nd half of last year .267/.353/.489 OPS .842 wRC+ 134 through the trade deadline this year, he'll be easy to move. Then the likely scenario is Bell could be flipped for a PTBNL if he's in that wRC+ 100-110 range. and the other likely scenario is he's washed up, can't hit and the Twins continue to give him all the at bats like they did with Gallo and the Twins eat the $4MM just because Falzoll doesn't understand the concept of budgets.
  15. bean5302
    Outman needs an approach change similar to what Trevor Larnach followed. Can he do it is a big question. Larnach had a crazy high K rate with terrible O-contact rates before making some adjustments to lower his strikeout rate. Maybe Outman can do it, but he probably can't. In his rookie season, a lot of the performance appeared to be luck based on expected metrics.
  16. bean5302
    Bell makes no sense on the roster. $7MM for a league average hitting DH who can stand where first basemen generally stand. BTV has him at -$2MM last I checked because he's been a replacement level player the last 3 seasons. While it's possible Bell could have a resurgent season, there's very supporting an expectation that's going to happen. To me, he's just another Joey Gallo, Ty France, Donovan Solano, Kyle Farmer, Carlos Santana type. Every once in a while, you get lucky in terms of WAR based on a funky defensive boost or something, but make no mistake, none of those guys had an impressive year at the plate.
  17. bean5302
    Highest home run seasons for a left handed batter on the Twins since Target Field opened.
  18. bean5302
    Prielipp had a failed TJ. He doesn't have some crazy injury history. It certainly looks like the Twins plan to use Prielipp out of the 'pen this year since they haven't had him pitch more than 2.0 innings and he hasn't started a game so far. Despite not starting any games and the low inning count, he's pitching on a rotational type rest though. I'm not sure if the Twins are intentionally having Prielipp work on something or if his stuff just doesn't play. He hasn't been able to throw strikes and he's been crushed. A very bad start to the spring for sure.
  19. bean5302
    Of these, Twins winning the AL Central is most likely, I think. Buxton making top 5 if he plays a full season 3:1, Buxton having a full season, what like, 5:1 at this point? So 15:1 odds. Ryan is a 1% chance? Maybe? Wallner's playing at Target Field so unless we're going back to the juiced ball of 2019, I don't see it happening. Left handed hitters going yard 40 times while playing at Target Field 81 times a year is a tall call. It's never happened. 2019 = 36 Kepler 2017 = 27 Rosario 2010 = 25 Thome
  20. bean5302
    Speaking of Miranda... .400/.455/.750 OPS 1.205 in 22 PA this Spring 9.1% BB, 18.2% K Seems like he's seeing the ball pretty well. Glad to see it, and hope it continues.
  21. bean5302
    Honestly, only matters to me if he's throwing fastballs at 88-90 or if he's throwing them at 91-92.
  22. bean5302
    Rojas is one of those "he should be better" types. It'll take a little time in our system before we can identify whether he has the stuff but just needs a bit of mechanical polish or if his stuff just doesn't play. I think it's clear something major changed for him between Toronto and Minnesota. Prior to joining the Twins, Rojas wasn't really known for problems with walks. Well... we sure fixed that, but changing something mechanically could certainly have that kind of impact.
  23. bean5302
    @Cody Schoenmann I'm pretty critical on articles here and I found your piece to be solid. If even I'm not complaining, I wouldn't worry about it, lol.
  24. bean5302
    I'd be very unhappy if Gio Urshela was on the 40 man this year, let alone considered a primary backup for Royce Lewis 🤢 Fangraphs lists Clemens as the next on the depth chart at 3B, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Austin Martin there. Next on the list would mayyyyybe be Tanner Schobel, but he's got to show something in ST...
  25. bean5302
    Camden is great. Been there for a Twins at Orioles game in 2011-ish, I think. Aside from that, I feel like you're being unreasonable in your expectations based on the cost of everything I've seen. $1 in 1965 = $10.33 today. So going to a game today in left field bleachers is the same as paying $4 for a lower level seat, a beer and a hot dog in 1965. Not sure if that's a lot?
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