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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    What makes you think Walker Jenkins is better than Joe Benson?
  2. bean5302
    The CBA wouldn't invalidate "contracts" it would invalidate the draft pick compensation. The draft pick compensation has nothing to do with the uniform player contract, which is future dated. It's an agreement between owners vs. owners, not players vs. owners.
  3. bean5302
    Twins spend 15% more. The Brewers trade their short term control players when their players have value to load the farm and avoid paying near market rates. That's a major factor.
  4. bean5302
    If you're unable to tolerate reasoning, analytics and player evaluation, you could try skipping all the content you believe won't be a sunshine and rainbows echo chamber.
  5. bean5302
    If Jenkins looks the part at the plate and he's hitting the ball like he has been the last couple weeks, another couple weeks of "prove it" is good enough for me.
  6. bean5302
    Honestly, I peeked into this topic for the reaction watching. I don't care enough about Donaldson to give his opinions any value LOL
  7. bean5302
    I think it's #5 now behind soccer.
  8. bean5302
    Yeah, typically contracts slide forward one year. So if a player was under a 1 year contract for 2027, they'd be under a 1 year contract for 2028.
  9. bean5302
    0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000% A team looking to make the playoffs isn't going to sacrifice the post season for a chance at a draft pick. Let me not mince words. Walker Jenkins has SUCKED most of the year at the plate in terms of the kind of contact he's been making. 50% ground balls. 20% pop ups on fly balls. No power. Low line drive rates. He's been unable to square up balls or barrel them. While the TD Hype Machine has looked at his OPS and tried to translate it directly to MLB as if AAA and MLB pitchers were the same caliber, the reality is Jenkins has struggled to look like he belongs in MLB. On top of that, he was ice cold coming out of the Futures game. Now, over the past couple of weeks, Jenkins has starting hitting home runs, the xwOBA is climbing, he's making far better contact and driving the ball with authority. There's a good chance he gets a call soon because it looks like he's turned a corner. The same way Marek Houston went on an absolute tear coming out of the all star break before his major slump over the past couple weeks. Jenkins needs to avoid turning back into the same hitter at the plate he was all year, sustain the hard contact, and he'll get the call sooner than later.
  10. bean5302
    I have no idea the point you're trying to make here.
  11. bean5302
    Yes, he is. Maybe the Twins are waiting to see if he comes out of it before promoting him even to AAA, much less MLB 🙄
  12. bean5302
    First, we don't know how Jeffers finishes the season. If he drops off in the last month and a half, making him the QO is probably reckless to begin with. It's a big overpay for his value based on historical career performance. Jeffers is probably a $15MM / AAV guy so you're almost giving him 2 years of pay for 1 year of play, and there's a high likelihood he accepts the massive overpay if he slumps down the stretch to more career-like performance. Second, the QO probably doesn't exist on 12/1/2026 or later, and whatever compensation the Twins would receive in terms of draft picks may not exist in 2027. Right now, MLB is proposing grandfathering the 2026 CBA, but I don't know as that will stand. The MLBPA absolutely hates the QO compensation system. I mean hate hates it, and the owners need to use every bit of their leverage to try and get a salary cap/floor. The QO transfer of picks compensation will 100% go away if the cap/floor is implemented. I think there's a good chance MLB removes grandfathering and teams making a QO this year should assume no draft pick compensation will be attached.
  13. bean5302
    He was never the same after TJ. Super important to look at xFIP for a Coors Field pitcher. 3.69 up to TJ. 5.39 post TJ. Probably nothing for the Twins to unlock, but worth taking a look and seeing if there is a change the team can make.
  14. bean5302
    Ben Ross is probably a lesser version of Ryan Kreidler.
  15. bean5302
    The Twins don't know their needs anymore because they don't assign positions to players. What position do they need to fill? Beats me. I have no idea who the Twins think should play what position. Just a bunch of straws to draw at the beginning of the game where almost everybody on the team is a lousy defender at all positions. Today, what it probably... should be... I guess? C - Jeffers 1B - Bell 2B - Lee SS - Culpepper 3B - Lewis LF - Larnach CF - Buxton RF - Roden DH - Keaschall Util - Kreidler UO - Martin Util - Clemens BC - Caratini The more playing time a player gets at their static position, the better the player performs in general. Muscle memory from repetition is far superior to knowledge of plays. That doesn't seem to be a commonly believed concept around the forums, though. I can't fathom why. It's the same for everything in life. From playing billiards and golf to laying brick and editing spreadsheets.
  16. bean5302
    I suppose it depends on which players you like and whether you like player analysis. Royce is doing great. Buxton is back off the IL, Jeffers is back from the IL, Larnach is still hitting really well, Luke Keaschall certainly appears to have turned a corner at the plate. The Twins made big moves to improve the bullpen at the deadline. Those are all things commented on and talked about recently.
  17. bean5302
    Houston's past 10 games .167/.271/.190 OPS .461 wRC+ 28, 10.4% BB, 35.4% K.
  18. bean5302
    So let's take a look at Aaron Judge's teeny tiny 95 PA sample size in 2016. wOBA .267. xwOBA = .281. 14pts difference. Falls within the 87% of players over a 3 year period. The next two years, Judge was within 20pts, he just hit the ball better. Judge went from 9.5% BB and 44.2% K in year 1 to 18.7% BB and 30.7% K in year 2. That shows in expected metrics. When you see a player adapt, you see the expected performance change because the balls are being hit differently. Contact squares, up, hard hit and barrel rates climb, walk rate jumps, strikeout rate drops. Brooks Lee? None of that. He's hitting balls the same, walking and striking out the same, chasing the same, whiffing the same. That's actually not exactly true. He's actually having the worst year of his career in terms of expected results. Royce Lewis in 2023 is an excellent example. His first 13 games was all luck. wOBA .317 vs. xwOBA .249. He was getting results (singles) for no good reason. He didn't take a single walk and struck out 32% of the time. The next 24 games wOBA .396 vs. xwOBA .334. The wOBA was insane, but the part that matters is the 85pt improvement in xwOBA. BB rate jumped from 0.0% to 8.2%. K rate dropped by 40% down to 22%. ISO jumped 50% where Lewis was getting extra bases, not just singles. Then the last 21 games is where the magic happens. wOBA .431 with an xwOBA of .422, again an 88pt improvement. Lewis was literally playing like an MVP. Walk rate 13.2%, K rate 18.7%. ISO to an elite .329. Lewis' actual production was mirrored by his expected production. This is why people like me continue to believe in Royce. What Royce was doing at the end of 2023 was no fluke, unlike Brooks Lee's 2026. Royce had no vulnerabilities to pitch type or pitch location. His .304/.396/.633 OPS 1.029 wRC+ 179 production was legit, and right in line with expected production. That's what adaptation looks like.
  19. bean5302
    Then why wasn't he too smart for them in the 2 previous seasons?
  20. bean5302
    Jenkins on a home tear lately. If there's one thing that can silence doubters, it's home runs. Batted ball data isn't needed when the ball leaves the field. That's no grounder or pop-up. Signs are really starting to point to him being dialed in and having it figured out. Houston struggling with K's recently after being on absolute fire to end July, but it's all SSSS stuff. I'm not sure there's a lot left to prove in AA now that he's close to 200 PA (188) and Culpepper is in the big show. Here's hoping the Twins are just waiting for Houston to shake off a mini-slump before he moves to St. Paul. Carson Tinney having a couple good games back to back is great to see. Hoping that's a sign the adjustment to wood bats is starting to happen. Hopefully, he's able to take some stuff away from Lackey and coaches to improve his transition time which is supposed to be one of Tinney's blockers on controlling the run game.
  21. bean5302
    Because I've literally done the math on this before. It's not close. Emma has been on 7-day/10-day IL's a lot. He hasn't been on 60-day IL's a lot.
  22. bean5302
    DH. That's his best position. It's honestly been his "best" position since he was drafted according to scouts.
  23. bean5302
    I wish I had better batted ball data over Jenkins' past 10 games where his production has been excellent. Prospects can turn a corner and put it all together like flipping a switch sometimes, and it would be awesome of that was what happened for Jenkins. Another 10 games like this and you have to trust the production for a prospect this highly ranked. Right now, I'm hesitant because his expected production this year has been down right pedestrian due to him being a ground ball and pop up machine all year, and he didn't hit well (actual results or quality contact) for the first 10 games after the break. Maybe he's flipped the switch or maybe he's just had a little hot streak.
  24. bean5302
    Over the past 3 years, there is not one of the 204 qualified hitters in MLB who have an xwOBA more than 36pts different than actual. 87% of batters fall into +/- 19pts. Brooks Lee over his first 2 seasons? -10pts Brooks Lee this year? +44pts over expected. Brooks Lee over his past 20 games? +35pts over expected. Either he needs to dramatically improve the quality of his hitting or his production is going to utterly tank. He's due for an ice cold streak at this rate.
  25. bean5302
    As I've pointed out multiple times, balls literally, and frequently, bounce right off Keaschalls glove in the outfield. Stuff most baseball players are better at in high school. I've never seen anything like it. Not knowing when to open and close a glove.
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