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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I'm not debating whether or not Falvey drafted and developed a pipeline for the rotation. I'm saying that year after year after year, the pitching pipeline (regardless of source) is looked at with overly optimistic faith, and yes, the writers on this site have been glowingly supportive of Falvey since his first days here in my opinion. Even recently, articles about how Falvey was scapegoated were published. I find it hard to believe you overlooked them? In any case, if we're to believe in the arms assembled behind Lopez, Ryan and Ober, we'll need to see them pitch. Matching or surpassing a 3.81 career ERA pitcher (Lopez) shouldn't be seen as some sort of insurmountable task. Prielipp could well do it. Matthews and Bradley both have the stuff to get there. I think you're missing the point. My point is the loss of Lopez (if it happens) is an opportunity for the pipeline to step up, especially for the fans of Falvey and the writers who believe it's all on the Pohlads.
  2. bean5302
    Depends on whether or not Falvey's vaunted "pipeline" is legit. Every year writers from TD try to convince the fans "this is our year" just like the rampant Vikings fans as the football season ramps up. Well, for the Falvey faithful who believe our former PoBO actually finally succeeded after 9 years, I suppose it would be time to find out.
  3. bean5302
    This is the year for Prielipp to show what he's really got. Now more than a full year removed from UCL surgery recovery, his control and command should be solid. The walk rates last year in AA were good, but awful at AAA. Will Preilipp be able to generate the Ks without the BBs is the question at AAA now, if not Spring Training. If Prelipp can't get Ks without the BBs, he's going to have to move the the 'pen. A real bummer.
  4. bean5302
    The curveball is the most stressful on the elbow/arm of any pitch based on velocity neutral numbers, but velocity itself increases stress on the elbow. In testing, the fastball is the pitch which generates the most force on an elbow. The theory the slider was causing UCL injuries was based on the correlation between more sliders and more UCL injuries. Turns out, that's almost certainly a cause of correlation rather than causation.
  5. bean5302
    Hopefully, it's just a minor bit of soreness from a mild tweaking of something. It would be a devastaing blow to the "we'll be competitive in 2026" type of mindset Tom Pohlad has been championing if the injury is significant.
  6. bean5302
    Agreed. I'd be fine firing Zoll right now. There were plenty of options to field a competitive team and make some moves. He did nothing. He's just another Falvey.
  7. bean5302
    BaseballTradeValues shows Bell as an upside down trade value. I think that's your answer on Bell's value.
  8. bean5302
    SWR pulls 97 at will? His average fastball is 93mph. Of 225 fastballs he threw last year, his fastest recorded pitch was 96.5mph, and he only threw 1 at that velo. Less than 5% of his fastballs would "round up" to 96mph or higher. Only 4 fastballs in August or September even rounded to 95 mph. Beyond that, SWR got pulled early because he loses his form/mechanics and sees his velocity drop after about 60 pitches, with a consistent drop by 80 pitches. SWR at 94 is effective. SWR at 91 gets destroyed.
  9. bean5302
    I would not be surprised if Austin Martin was a better SS option than Tristan Gray :puke
  10. bean5302
    In order to get reliable results for defensive metrics, you'd probably want 1200 innings for the now defunct UZR/150 2400 innings for OAA 3000 innings for DRS 60 innings is literally nothing. Not even a drop in the bucket to understand defensive metrics the stat sites have gravited towards. OAA and especially DRS are wildly unstable metrics. Likewise, sample sizes under 200 plate appearances are highly volatile as BABIP only starts to stabilize after that point, and just a couple lucky plate apperance results and swing things out of proporation under 100 PA. At 57 PA, 3 extra hits with 1 HR means the difference between: .200/.298/.380 OPS .678 wRC+ 85 and .260/.351/.500 OPS .851 wRC+ 135 There's very little to take away from Gray's SSSS at the MLB level. It's worth noting he's playing in his age 30 season and he's been basically below average at AAA for 5 straight years. He's DFA stuff.
  11. bean5302
    It would be a very Falvey-esque move to add a whole bunch of depth, waste budget on positions the team doesn't need and logjam talent for no good reason. Since I'm currently of the opinion that Zoll = Falvey, I could see this happening.
  12. bean5302
    Just going to grab the AI response on this. Yes, former Minnesota Twins third baseman and current media personality Trevor Plouffe has been critical of the Minnesota Twins ownership and front office, particularly regarding the team's payroll reductions and strategy during the 2024 and 2025 seasons. Critique of 2024/2025 Moves: Plouffe described the Twins' moves in the 2024–2025 offseason as a "bloodbath" and expressed sympathy for fans frustrated by the team shedding payroll. Ownership Concerns: He has questioned the ownership's direction, specifically discussing with local media whether the Pohlad family was "playing keep away" regarding the team's sale status and financial strategy in August 2025. Front Office Transactions: While acknowledging general manager Derek Falvey was trying to make moves, Plouffe indicated that the team's inaction at the 2024 trade deadline was expected due to constraints. Fan Perspective: Plouffe has positioned himself as someone who understands the frustration of the fan base regarding the organization's decisions to reduce spending. Note: The search results also indicate Plouffe was not a fan of manager Rocco Baldelli publicly calling out the team in 2024, focusing his criticism more on the structural and financial decisions of the leadership, rather than just on-field play.
  13. bean5302
    Things which are required to be a good MLB shortstop. Quickness: The ability to react and accelerate right or left a step or two. Run: The ability to cover ground and run down pop ups or get to slow rolling ground balls. Arm: A throwing motion which is compact, but delivers high velocity allowing for a quick release and accurate high velocity throw across the diamond (often 120+ feet). Fielding: Just general skill set including a soft glove, footwork, positioning and glove transition skills. If I was to grade Lee vs. Minimum SS vs. Correa (peak), a24, 2025 on a 20-80 Quickness: 50 vs. 50 vs. 70, 70, 50 Run: 35 vs. 50 vs. 65, 55, 45 Arm: 40 vs. vs. 60 vs. 70, 70, 50 Fielding: 40 vs. 50 vs. 60, 60, 60 Keep in mind, Correa won Rookie of the Year as a starting shortstop at age 20 in 2015. At his peak, he was one of the most sure gloved fielders, with enough speed to play center field, excellent reflexes and a cannon arm. Brooks Lee has been ploddingly slow (like DH/1B speed) with relatively quick reflexes, a weak arm, and an error prone glove. Fixing one of his faults to become better than "adequate" doesn't make Brooks Lee a viable SS, and I just beyond hate watching the Twins pursue such a ridiculously stupid path for a player who can't even hit.
  14. bean5302
    Rodriguez doesn't have a lot of comps so the projection tools are going to struggle to fit players like him into a mold. I don't think Emmanuel Rodriguez will ever be a quality MLB player. He's already burned 2 of 3 options and he's never had a PA at the MLB level. That says plenty to me. If he can't make the opening day roster, it's just another ding on his record, but I think he'll get every opportunity to get the call since there's a belief he can cover CF. We'll see how he performs in Spring Training provided he doesn't get hurt again. If the 50% K rate is back, I think his career is already over. If he's able to get the Spring Training K rate down to 35% or lower, he has a shot.
  15. bean5302
    Dylan Bundy owned a 2.95 ERA in April for the Twins.
  16. bean5302
    You can get entrance to a full season ticket package of Twins pass for $3 game right now. You can bring your own food into the stadium. You can bring empty water bottles into the game and fill them up for free. You can attend on the $1 hot dog nights. You can get a $5 Bud Light any game from a couple different sections. You can get $3 beers on Fridays and Saturdays before the game. Signing up for My Twins gets you $2 beers before every home game. You can park for free within 15 minutes and take a $2.50 bus ride to get to and from the game. Attending Twins games is super cheap if you actually want to go rather than complain about how expensive it is.
  17. bean5302
    Then he's not a starter.
  18. bean5302
    It's encouraging Plouffe is giving Tom the thumbs up as far as I'm concerned. Plouffe has not been a patsy for the Twins front office in the past or the ownership. He's been openly and vocally critical of ownership many times. I'm not impressed with the roster construction of this team at all, but the roster construction is on Falvey and now Zoll, who I don't think has a job at the end of the year at this point.
  19. bean5302
    I think it's strange how his proponents ignore the fact he doesn't put the Twins in a good position to win ball games. Every run a pitcher allows makes a massive difference to the likelihood of winning a game. That's why the traditional 3 ER allowed in 6 innings isn't a very good performance. It's a 4.50 ERA. If a starter goes out and delivers 6 IP and allows 3 ER, the lineup can be expected to need to generate 5 runs to win the game. Similarly, if a pitcher can't at least get all the way through the 5th inning, it's exhausting for the bullpen... which can be expected to allow at least 1, but often 2 more runs in a game. A real quality start is a pitcher who goes out there, gives a team 5.0+ innings with an ERA below 4.00. Sim got demoted to AAA because he was struggling to do that. I believe he was down at 37.5% QS rate at that point. Not the worst ever, but bad enough to deserve being sent to AAA... on the Twins. 2025 = 45% (10 of 22) 2024 = 43% (12 of 28)
  20. bean5302
    I could see that working more frequently. With just one longer reliever, there's less danger of bullpen arms running out, but there's still the issue of... when do you need the long reliever? If Ober and SWR go 3 innings back to back, you can't use your long reliever again. If all 5 arms are good enough to go 6-7 innings for a week through the rotation, you waste your long guy. I think the theory is good if everything were stable. I just don't think there's ever a cop when you need one.
  21. bean5302
    Lewis was told in 2021-2022 offseason he was going to be the starting shortstop for the Minnesota Twins in 2022. Then the Twins unexpectedly signed Correa. Of course, Lewis wound up pushed off SS due to obvious rank behind Carlos Correa. Lewis was moved to CF to cover for Buxton, which worked out splendidly for all involved after Lewis met the CF wall with his not quite fully recovered knee. Lewis was again expected to be the starting shortstop for the Twins in 2023, but the Twins again unexpectedly brought back Carlos Correa. Lewis showed some defensive struggles in his 3rd Base play time after that relating to his throwing accuracy. In 2024, Lewis' continued defensive struggles with throwing after he loss of the first few months to a quad strain saw Baldelli bury Lewis in the depth charts behind Correa and the more polished, though less capable Brooks Lee. Lewis remained at 3rd, but was told he was going to be used at 2B to shorten up the throwing distance. That obviously went well. In 2025, Lewis showed a lot of progress at 3rd base and had a relatively healthy season for a change, but I don't know as he has the skills to play SS at this point, but his physical skill set should be substantially better than any other player who could potentially play SS who is also expected to be on the Twins' 26 man roster to open the season. So... maybe he could, maybe he couldn't? I KNOW Brooks Lee didn't have the skills to cover it, and it would be a major stretch to believe he would ever get fast or get a strong arm.
  22. bean5302
    First, I don't agree with the idea pitchers who are used to throwing 50-60 pitches can suddenly jump to 90-100 pitches effectively or without risk to injury. Second, it wipes out your bullpen in practice. If pitchers are used to being used every 4 days and throwing 50-60 pitches, they're not going to be available on 1 or 2 days of rest when one of the very few relievers you have left just do not "have it" one day. You never know when you need a bullpen to soak up 1 inning or 8 innings, and going from 10-30 pitches to 50-60 pitches to 90-100 pitches is not something pitchers can adapt to in short time frames.
  23. bean5302
    Canterino is not hurt again. He's still recovering from the same shoulder surgery he had last year. At the time of the surgery last year, Nick Paparesta said it was likely Matt would have a longer recovery than the 12 month typical time frame. Canterino had the surgery mid-March last year so expecting him back before the end of Spring Training this year was a long shot to begin with. I'm no Canterino simp, but I'm not going to be unfair to him, either. I think it's unlikely Canterino EVER sees the mound in a real MLB game. I believe the Twins signed Canterino 90% as a charity move to give him a chance to rehab while having his medical expenses and recovery paid by the team. 10% a just in case he actually comes back from shoulder surgery. The findings in Canterino's evaluation by Dr. Keith Meister was basically his shoulder ligaments were loose after having several shoulder strains and the ligaments needed to be shortened to tighten the shoulder up. That's a really big deal, and it takes a long time to recover from it. I wish Matt the best in his recovery, and there's always a glimmer of hope the work he does in the process to let the ligaments heal AND to strengthen his shoulder to the point he doesn't have the strains show up again successfully allow him to return to pitching without a career ending velocity loss.
  24. bean5302
    Royce Lewis' speed started to show substantial improvement later in the year. Even beat up, Lewis is substantially faster than Brooks Lee, has a stronger arm than Lee as well. Lee might not be able to outrun prime Chris Parmelee ('ol tree trunks)
  25. bean5302
    Oh SS is definitely more demanding from a physical skills standpoint. It's the injury bug thing I was talking about. There seems to be an idea players will magically be healthier if they switch to positions which require a lesser physical skillset to be an "effective" defender. 3B gets a couple fewer plays a game than SS, but the player doesn't need the speed as much. 2B gets more than SS, but the arm doesn't have to be involved, and accuracy can be way lower since the distance is so much closer. It's way HARDER to be a good shortstop than 2B or 3B because you need to be quick, fast AND have a strong arm an accurate throwing. 3B drops off the speed requirement, 2B drops off the arm requirements. Shortstop is reserved for the most physically gifted athelete on teams, generally. Even more so than catchers, but catchers require a lot of unique skills and insane leg endurance. That said, the player is going to use their skills at whatever position they play, and every position in the infield or outfield requires running, diving, throwing, etc.
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