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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Agreed. My Hope-O-Meter won't start realistically moving until I see the results I think are necessary for the Twins to have sustained success this year. 4 legitimate quality starting pitchers in the rotation, and strong performances from several question mark position players. Probably no changes until the end of May.
  2. bean5302
    Derek Falvey's front office has 10 years of failure legacy. I'm done. Taj Bradley turning into a perennial Cy Young will not impact my position in the slightest. Full purge. I saw what Zoll did after Falvey was fired. Nothing. Falzoll needs to go, with completely new leadeship and a new philosophy born of that leadership needs to come in. Could I eventually change my mind on Zoll? Sure. After a few years of sustained successes, but he's in a deep, deep hole in terms of my approval and confidence.
  3. bean5302
    It's also broken because of a "per capita" rate, in this case "households." When you have 5 million visiting people in a neighborhood, it skews the rates badly because they're not part of the household count. Property values are very high, there's tons of night life and many people around. Sure, I wouldn't want to be wandering alone through dark alleys at 3am, but for times around major events like Twins games? No concern.
  4. bean5302
    Honestly, WPA is kind of a better "RBI" as it eliminates a common complaint about player performances across sports tied to the concept of garbage time. What about just runners on 2B? A single often scores a base runner in that scenario. In addition, how many plate appearances total for each category. If it's under 300, there's just way too much noise. Then you have to consider who was on base, right? Did the HoF player come from a time where the Twins were speedy and aggressive base runners where the hitter was say a couple spots down from Dan Gladden or did it come from the Falvey era filled with plodding corner DH's masquarading as position players? Was the player surrounded by incompetent bats where all a pitcher was going to do was throw junk because there were 3 easy outs coming up next? The era they played (impacts OPS+/wRC+), and other items which make it hard to compare apples to apples on players. I think there are certainly players who are better under pressure than others, it's just awfully hard to get to using "RBI"
  5. bean5302
    Ober needs to get his arm slot right if that's what is wiping his velo out. He can't survive as an MLB starter with 2 MLB caliber pitches.
  6. bean5302
    ZOMG!!!! Look at "downtown" Maple Grove!!! It's all red! The only reason the grades aren't worse is Maple Grove gets blended with suburban areas and Osseo. I've gone to hundreds of Twins games in the past few years and I've spent plenty of other time in North Loop.
  7. bean5302
    Bradley talked about a major change in his approach for games after his trade to the Twins. He started paying attention to scouting and being coachable. The trade to the Twins appears to have been the wake up call he needed. I think Tampa recognized Bradley wasn't going to be receptive to the coaching and planning he needed to do there. Tampa wasn't going to get anything out of him so his value to Tampa was limited. It wasn't a question of his talent, at least. He sure has looked good after his adjustments, but it's early. Bradley could have the kind of ceiling to be a front line pitcher. Exciting for the Twins.
  8. bean5302
    Not sure how this got sidetracked into a Rockies and Downtown Minneapois thing, but I'd like to note a couple things. 1) Rockies attract 30,000+ fans on average. The games are well attended, the in game entertainment is excellent and the team caters to young adults looking to have a great game day experience. 2) Target Field is not "downtown" per se Target Field is North Loop. North Loop is clean, extremely safe and well maintained. It seems like about 99.9% of comments regarding the 'scary Minneapolis' thing come from people who haven't been to Target Field in 10 years. North Loop is about as scary as "downtown" Maple Grove.
  9. bean5302
    The Twins were aware Lee couldn't hit from the right side of the plate so they worked with him on improving that in the minors. There's nothing preventing Lee from being successful at the MLB level in terms of Lee's swing. Lee seems to struggle with pitch recognition and confidence to swing hard more frequently. He was a high floor (not a high ceiling) prospect who was massively overhyped here. Unlike most position players coming up through the Twins' system, Lee's been given a very long leash to underperform and make adjustments. I think he's perfectly fine as a backup utility infielder.
  10. bean5302
    Ryan has far exceeded my expectations as a pitcher. I never expected him to be better than a #4 type of guy, but he's continuously re-vamped his arsenal of pitches and he's found successes with the changes, something which is very rare in the world of starting pitchers. His career FIP, xFIP and ERA are all similar. 3.80ish. Last year his FIP and xFIP were 3.70-3.74, but he managed a 67% QS2 (5.0+ IP, ERA 3.99 or less leaving the game). Great stuff, close to #1 caliber results, but not really there. He's going to likely continue to have up and down starts. A playoff caliber rotation arm at this point, no doubt, but reasonable expectations should be in order.
  11. bean5302
    I'm looking at fWAR. You look at whatever you want to try to justify your position. The Twins don't owe Buxton anything.
  12. bean5302
    Larnach is not a starting caliber MLB position player for a good team. He's a league average hitter if you don't shield him from lefties and he's a poor defender. That said, he's got a high floor and he'd be valuable enough as a low cost roster filler for a team. Larnach is a 1.0 WAR kind of player over a full year as a starting left fielder. That's Trevor Larnach. I don't mind the Twins keeping Larnach at $4MM, but he's redundant on this team. That's not "ripping" a guy. Brooks Lee isn't an MLB caliber player, period. Based on results compared to his peers, Brooks Lee's performance has not warranted playing time. That's fair analysis.
  13. bean5302
    I've never understood this sentiment. Virtually every time the Twins have needed Buxton in the playoffs, he's been hurt. The Twins gave him a 7 year contract with full no trade protection when I don't think any team in baseball would have given him more than 3 and without any NTC if Buxton were to have reached free agency. Buxton has led the Twins position players in WAR just 2x in his career. 2021 and 2025. Reports have made it clear he's a team leader in the clubhouse and a stabilizing force who has been with the team a long time. The fact Buxton is the face of the franchise says more about the front office than it does Buxton.
  14. bean5302
    From the game.
  15. bean5302
    You're literally talking about 100's of kiosks, kitchens, heaters, lighting systems, etc. A stadium's load is roughly 5x higher than an average large hospital.
  16. bean5302
    The difference from 88 and 90 is substantial. The 88mph pitch is trailing the 90mph pitch by 1.5 feet. Being late 1.5 feet on a pitch is a strikeout vs. a foul ball and another swing.
  17. bean5302
    4.0 innings starts and a 6.75 ERA is okay? Paddack was much better than that last year, and 2022 Dylan Bundy was a lot better than 2025 Paddack. For pitchers with 100 innings last year, by ERA, that would make Ober the 3rd worst starting pitcher in the game. MLB is not the place for learning how to pitch. That's what the minors are there for and Ober needs to quickly figure things out or he should go to AAA where the coaches can hopefully help him recover 3mph of velo. I'm not sure how Pablo Lopez comes into this? He's not a coach, and he doesn't throw 88-89mph. Ober's simply not a viable starter at 88-89mph, and I think there's a pretty strong agreement among this forum in regard to that position. Maybe with some warmer weather Ober's velo will pick up. It's worth hoping he's able to put it together in the next 3 starts or so.
  18. bean5302
    There's a huge difference from knowing everything you do is watched and tracked vs. if you strike out at this plate appearance, you'll probably get demoted.
  19. bean5302
    Personally, I believe the Twins should have torn it down, traded Lopez, Ryan, and Buxton for sure and built a beast of a farm system. I also posted a true reconstruction to be competitive after Tom fired Falvey. A legitimate, lets be competitive in 2026 plan. It would have thinned the farm a bit, bumped the payroll a bit, and it would have resulted in higher payrolls in 2027+ as more players would have been arb eligible, but it was a legit plan IMHO. Then there's what the Twins did. Juuuuuust about nothing. There is a high ceiling on the team, but it requires so many things to go right, and already a couple major things have gone sideways (Lopez, Matthews). Oh well. It is what it is. Anyway, it's MLB through April 4th. These are the players the front office wanted so it's time to stick by them and see what they can do for at least a full month, probably until mid-May before advocating for demotions, etc. IMHO, there are few things which hurt inexperienced player performance more than a quick hook. The belief every single pitch or swing has to be perfect or you're going to AAA is a horrible thing. In the office world, nothing creates an environment which is more hostile, distracting and dysfunctional than feeling like you're under a microscope. It's also 35* out there...
  20. bean5302
    I said absolutely nothing about ditching the kid. Guess that's my queue to take off from the site for a while. I know the next step around here...
  21. bean5302
    Reason for optimism for the 2026 team? Guys who aren't on the roster, but might be some day. LOL. The Twins need a lot of career years out of their roster to be competitive. We'll see, but this looks like a wasted season right now.
  22. bean5302
    Correa nearly drown because he was trying to swim with his son (in a lifejacket) on his shoulders and while he was in the middle of drowning, he still had his kid, safely in a life jacket on his shoulders? Yeahhhh, no. The kid obviously had no life jacket on, and Correa was lying to avoid potential legal issues or reputation damage, etc. While I'm extremely glad nobody was seriously injured as a result of what happened, it's only natural to expect a lot of criticism in these scenarios. Anybody who has spent significant time on the water has witnessed somebody in over their head, and too often you don't realize how bad off somebody was until minutes later when everything sinks in. Reckless activity which results in scares brings back a lot of pain and bad memories out there in addition to negative attention to people's favorite places.
  23. bean5302
    Knowing this organization, they'll option Luke Keaschall and start Alex Jackson every day at 2B until September.
  24. bean5302
    I'd say more like his "adequate" spring performance. 47 PA .302/.362/.395 OPS .757 wRC+ 104. Very Austin Martin-like. No power, speedy, needs to walk more to get the OBP up high enough to provide value. Let's be real about Roden. Roden probably shouldn't have been asked to repeat AA for the beginning of 2024, but he earned a spot opening day for the Blue Jays in 2025 and proceeded to defecate the bed. There's a high degree of likelihood he's a AAAA player, but the possibility he could be solid as a 4th outfielder.
  25. bean5302
    Maybe we sould put a bunch of players in a box of "returns" guaranteed to be worth at least 50 surplus value and trade them all for a quality addition?
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