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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    This was what I was expecting from the MRI. This is also the reason I wanted to trade Lopez and/or Ryan this past offseason. Counting chickens before the eggs hatch. The Twins do not have a likely competitive roster and the idea of "just wait for the deadline" has injury realities which Falvey/Zoll do not seem prepared to accept.
  2. bean5302
    I mean, he's going to get an MLB contract, but I think he'll be severely regretting his opt-out decision when the dust settles. 1yr $12MM is what I'd expect now. Personally, I wouldn't want him.
  3. bean5302
    I didn't realize the Twins had added Morris/needed to add him to protect him from the rule 5 last November.
  4. bean5302
    What I've seen is pitchers throw Emma junk because they can get him out on junk most of the time. His "advanced" strike zone awareness needs to be a lot more advanced to succeed at MLB. Now in his 6th year in the MiLB Twins system, it truly is a make or break scenario for him IMHO. He needs to be better than his 50%+ K rate in previous spring training experiences, but he certainly has started off the year great! I'm glad to hear he's in the best shape of his life...
  5. bean5302
    Naylor is like 30 grade speed. He's unbelievably slow, but he did swipe 30 last year. Instincts certainly play a big role. Brian Dozier didn't have great speed, but he used instincts to steal. In regard to Naylor, it's just nonsensical, lol. Put it this way, the difference between Keaschall and Naylor at 2B is about 15 feet on raw speed. Keaschall had an 85% success rate according to the article. Plenty good to be aggressive, if he can maintain that at the MLB level, but the more a player steals, the more opponents are generally going to be watching for it.
  6. bean5302
    Morris got an invite to Spring Training, and that's more than the Twins needed to give him. It's a shot to impress again and potentially make his case, though I'd consider him to be a long shot if there aren't additional injuries.
  7. bean5302
    Griffin Jax and Louie Varland failed to produce at the MLB level in the rotation. Both were given ample opportunity to impress, and both struggled. Jax got 14 starts and produced a 6.10 ERA with a 6.24 FIP with a poor K rate, and he struggled to strand runners without a good out pitch. Louie Varland was just about as bad. A 5.18 ERA and 5.37 FIP with a weak K rate and tons of hard contact allowed across 18 starts. Duran wasn't even 9 months removed from UCL replacement surgery when the Twins had him in the bullpen. If they had decided to keep him as a starter, there was zero chance he would have been available until the 2nd half of 2022. Instead, they were aggressive in getting Duran into the show. Almost every single reliever in baseball is a failed starter.
  8. bean5302
    Probably 30 teams would grab Giolito on a MiLB contract.
  9. bean5302
    Cooked means the stuff is gone, not the heart. Hendriks' stuff was definitely gone in recent seasons. Whether that was because he needed to build back up after cancer treatment and TJ we'll probably find out in Spring Training.
  10. bean5302
    Pablo Lopez did lol
  11. bean5302
    I don't think Keaschall has a 40 SB season in him with the Twins. Keaschall is fast, but he's more like 65 grade speed than 80 grade like Buxton. Situations where Keaschall is on 1st base and there aren't players in front of him on base, and it's a fair opportunity to steal have to come along. It's tough to say how Shelton will try to protect players from injury this season. If Emma makes the team and can hold his own, I wouldn't be giving him the green light much based on his history of thumb injuries while stealing, for example. Lewis (if his speed comes back) and Buxton certainly have the speed, but they have way more game power than Keaschall so that translates to less good base stealing opportunity because Lewis and Buxton won't be on 1B nearly as often. (provided they're all good at the plate this year). It will be interesting to watch and see if Shelton is Baldelli v2.0 like Zoll is Falvey v2.0.
  12. bean5302
    We've never seen Prielipp pitch in MLB, and I don't think he'll get the opportunity as a starter to pitch in MLB if he looks like his stuff won't play, and he wouldn't be a top 100 prospect if he looked like a 5.50+ ERA pitcher. Also, not sure how a scrap heap reliever pitches 60 innings in your scenario? Doesn't seem realistic all all to me. Don't really have to worry about it. I don't think Prielipp will have any significant innings limits this year. He'll be limited based on season length at AAA. It's almost impossible to get more than 130 innings in AAA, and I expect Prielipp's capped innings limit will likely be 150ish. We have seen Ober pitch in MLB with an 89mph fastball, and it wasn't MLB caliber. 5.00+ ERA is not MLB caliber. If he's healthy, AND if his velocity is back, this isn't a debate at all. Ober is next in line after Ryan. Nobody is going to question that. In fact, Ober's arguably been the better of the two pitchers.
  13. bean5302
    Injury replacement depth this year, probably. Lopez Ryan Ober SWR Bradley Matthews AAA Abel Festa Prielipp Morris Rojas Culpepper With the loss of perennial rotation depth Dobnak, the conversion of Raya, Adams, Baker, Lewis and Klein to bullpen arms, Ohl's move to the Rockies and other shifting, the AAA starter rotation pool is thinner than what you'd be led to believe based on articles and comments here on TD. While the MLB ready depth might be pretty solid, there's a vacuum behind AAA right now. Morris probably doesn't have upside beyond #5 starter right now. Abel, Festa, Prielipp and Rojas all have a much higher expected ceiling at the moment. Morris will likely see MLB starts this year, but as a short term spot starter. The kind of guy you don't worry about optioning up and down to fill a start or two, but not the number you call when you need 4+ starts or something like that. The high end prospect arms in the system aren't likely to pitch above AA this year, let alone to start the year. Guys like Quick, Bohorquez, Hill, and Soto. So there's a need for rotation depth at AAA.
  14. bean5302
    The Twins weren't limiting Ober's innings in 2025. Was there ever a reasonable world where the Twins would let Prielipp throw 150 innings in a year over the past 2 seasons? Ober's track record of injuries was long as he came up through the minors. He got the point where it looked like he was past them, and with a little added velocity, his ceiling grew. Last year, if we're to believe it was all the hip stripping his velocity, then that's a pretty significant injury again Ober's over 30 now. Will the velocity come back? If he's throwing 89, do you want his likely 6.50 ERA in the rotation?
  15. bean5302
    55.0 IP, 207 Batters, 2.45 ERA, 3.06 FIP, 3.46 xFIP, 9.16 K/9, 1.96 BB/9. The ERA is there, but those expected metrics aren't quite as favorable. As a closer? I don't know. I think Festa fits the Cole Sands mold more than the Griffin Jax mold, but who knows? .166 Batting Average against .205 BABIP His Stuff+ reflects all fairly mediocre pitches in terms of velo and movement. He doesn't have any plus pitch based on velo and movement. Typically, a converted starter to elite reliever has at least 1 plus pitch offering when the conversion happens which puts that plus pitch into a plus-plus dominant pitch and raises the 40-50 grade stuff up a level too.
  16. bean5302
    Connor Prielipp has no real injury concerns at this point. A failed TJ 5 years ago doesn't mean he's an injury concern now. Not sure why this Prielipp "injury" thing keeps getting pushed. He's been basically injury free for 2 years now. Bailey Ober is certainly a higher injury risk than Connor Prielipp at this point, at least in my opinion. I'd actually favor moving Ober to the bullpen if the velo isn't there in Spring Training. Ober at 89-90 isn't effective. If he is able to dial it up to 93-94 out of the 'pen, he could be good.
  17. bean5302
    Rogers actually still has a very good slider. It's the rest of the arsenal which is iffy. Sands has a plus curveball. Topa is pretty similar to Rogers. Funderburk has a plus sinker. Most relievers have a plus something. It's just whether the rest of what they're throwing is always a meatball. Unless you're Banda. If you're Banda, then your very best pitch is league average, but the Twins will desperately pick you up because you used to play on a good team.
  18. bean5302
    Giolito does qualify as a veteran, but more importantly, he wasn't good last year. I don't think being old makes bad pitching performances more palatable than being young with bad pitching performances.
  19. bean5302
    Festa didn't have any good pitches. Moving him to the bullpen probably doesn't make his 45 grade pitches into 70 grade offerings to turn him into a great closer. If you're thinking Festa could follow the Jax model, Jax at least had a borderline plus slider as a starter. It got better when he moved to the 'pen.
  20. bean5302
    Raya couldn't get people out in AAA. Penciling him in as a middle reliever is questionable at this point. Last 9 games as a reliever in AAA. 4.91 ERA, 6.11 FIP, 8.35 K/9, 4.42 BB/9 and that's with a luck fueled .208 BABIP
  21. bean5302
    Correa was projected to be the #1 free agent in all of baseball for 2022 at: 10yrs $320MM. Correa was projected to be the #2 free agent in all of baseball for 2023 at: 9yrs $288MM. He was billed as wagyu. Didn't work out.
  22. bean5302
    Jeremy Zoll has not mentioned Festa as a reliever conversion option to the best of my knowledge. He made a statement cautioning against the expectation an opening day transistion at the MLB level. https://www.si.com/mlb/twins/onsi/minnesota-twins-news/twins-gm-says-outfield-prospect-to-get-time-at-first-starter-moving-to-bullpen While I do think Festa is on the short end of the list of potential conversion candidates, Zoll has been clearly less willing to plug roster holes and waste value than Falvey.
  23. bean5302
    Abel's problem is probably mechanics. Take his rough start vs. the Cubs early last year. His 4-seamer ranged from 93.7 to 98.3mph. That kind of variance is bad. The Twins pitching coaches worked with players recently to try and eliminate the outlier velo pitches and they were eventually able to get SWR to work on his mechanics. Hopefully, they'll be able to address the mechanical issues for Abel as well. You really have to love what you see in his "stuff" if he can just get his mechanics under control, his location will also follow suit.
  24. bean5302
    You want to talk batting average? How about we take it up a notch and use SLG? His SLG was .452. Every. Single. Team. Every single team in baseball would want Matt Wallner over one of their corner outfield or DH options right now. They may not be frantically coming up with trade offers, but every team would prefer Wallner at least by a small margin over what they have. Dodgers? Yep. They'd happily trade Teoscar to get Wallner. Yankees? Yep. They'd gladly trade Stanton and eat salary to get Wallner. Mets? Yep. All day the RF starter. Red Sox? Absolutely over Yoshida. Even straight up contract neutral at least 20 teams would start Wallner over another player on their roster.
  25. bean5302
    Actually, appearances influence most people's perception of the test of the food. The overall experience has more impact than you think so maybe the food is terrible but the stupid "M" is for Mariners hats have ruined your palate. Maybe the food would taste better without bad uniforms, hahaha
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