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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I'll take results, too. But 1 or 2 game sample sizes are worthless when considering actual results. Because pitchers can't just work out of a jam whenever they feel like it or every home run would be a solo shot, and GIDPs would happen 10x a game.
  2. bean5302
    Step 1, git gud. Emma was below average in AAA until his 2HR game. If guys aren't raking in AAA, they're not going to push anybody off the MLB roster. wRC+ 130 in AAA is probably going to translate as league average in MLB. Guys like Jenkins and Kaelyn Culpepper need a couple hundred plate appearances with quality production as a "prove it" as far as I'm concerned. Gonzalez has been too slow to really play OF, though he's supposedly got a strong arm, and his ceiling is probably pretty low for the Twins, especially, given Target Field's tall right field wall. It wouldn't be a TD post without at least some criticism of Wallner, though he hasn't been playing well. But, it's April 17th. If the Twins are going to demote him, just trade him to a team who has more belief in Wallner's game.
  3. bean5302
    His 3rd start was nice from results. It came with a 6.12 xERA and a 4.73 xFIP and an 18.8% barrel rate. The FIP was good because none of the barrels somehow found their way to the seats. Torkelson in the first inning with the 375 foot warning track shot with 2 runners on. Greene with a double high off the wall in right/center at 394 feet in the 3rd. In fact, all the contact in the 3rd was 94mph+. Advanced metrics are designed to tell you expected results even in a teeny-tiny sample sizes. Abel had 3 good starts last year where the results and metrics lined up as reasonable. Advanced metrics don't ignore or attempt to excuse results like your 2nd paragraph. Working out of a jam isn't a thing. They don't care about results, they care about what should have happened (based on their design formula). Of course, there are times when some (or even many) advanced metrics simply can't capture certain aspects of players' games. Players who consistently underperform or outperform the advanced metrics. It's not common. I don't need all the metrics to be outstanding or something. I'd like to see a large majority of the metrics pointing to "good" games. I consider that 5.0+ IP, with an ERA-like value of 3.99 or less.
  4. bean5302
    Abel's had a single good start by way of results and advanced metrics lining up. I think the rose tinted glasses from Spring Training are making their way into this article. I have high hopes for Abel, but I'd like to see some consistency over 3-4 good starts in a row before I get too excited.
  5. bean5302
    4th year in AA, 5th year in the system out of college, and a .510 BABIP. He's getting lucky with doubles and it's blowing up his stats. It is fair to give him some credit in terms of batted ball quality. His pop up rate is dramatically down and he's whiffing less. Pitchers are throwing him junk out of the gate though. Only a 43% first pitch strike rate. Working from 1-0 all the time helps a guy out.
  6. bean5302
    Feels like a stretch.
  7. bean5302
    Jenkins showing a little more velo this year with a 112.0 exit velocity shot already. That's creeping up there into the 60 grade raw power area after his best of 110.1 last year at AAA. He's not making a lot of quality contact right now, but it's only 50 PA. I'll be concerned at 200 PA, but not much before then. Emmanuel Rodriguez is my biggest concern in the minors. He's already burned this 3rd option and the Twins didn't trust him in the big show this past offseason or out of Spring Training. He's cut down his K rate yet again this year, now to a reasonable level. The walks vanished with it, but I think this is a more sustainable approach. Seeing the power return as well. If Emma can keep that K rate down in the 25% range and manage to produce, the Twins are going to have to give him an extended look in the big show. Outman is clearly the guy who needs to get cut, but Emma needs to be playing every day when he comes up. I'm just not sure where the plate appearances are going to come from.
  8. bean5302
    He was wondering how Maurer vs. Mauer became a thing. @Seth Stohs it comes from the same place as the extra R for Warshing clothes or Warshington DC? LOL
  9. bean5302
    I think a lot of people agree with you, but I'm not one of them. I feel like there's a desire to include Senators players because... well, they stuck around for more than a year or two while Griffith ran the great players out of here.
  10. bean5302
    Matthews isn't landing first pitch strikes and he's working on other pitches, probably because he's throwing his fastball only 25% of the time. His velocity is higher than it was 2 years ago so I'm not worried about it.
  11. bean5302
    Nothing to see here. Twins are 11th in MLB in starter innings pitched per game at 5.27 They've played more games than most teams so they have more innings pitched. Philadelphia is 14th at 5.19. Seattle is number 1, averaging 5.95.
  12. bean5302
    Matthews is showing a wild deviation from his pitch selection, and he's falling behind hitters a ton in AAA this year. He's only throwing his fastball 26% of the time with a paltry 54% first pitch strike rate. While the article talks about his velo being down from last year... it's actually up a tick from 2024. Some concerns, sure, but 1-0 vs 0-1 makes a huge impact on a pitcher. Liriano in 2010 owned a 62% first pitch strike rate. ERA 3.62, FIP 2.66. In 2012, he had a 53% first pitch strike rate. ERA 5.34, FIP 4.34. In 2013, he was back up to 58% and had a 3.02 ERA, 2.92 FIP. I'm not willing to say Matthews is cooked as a starter. Moving him to the pen feels like a knee jerk reaction, and risky strategy when the Twins don't have good injury replacement depth right now. Guy was in Cedar Rapids less than 2 years ago.
  13. bean5302
    Who is backing up the MLB rotation after we move all the starters to the bullpen? Ober and SWR are rocking those eyesore ERAs as it is, and we're definitely going to need 10 starts from somebody who is not currently in the rotation even if we're willing to live with non-competitive performances from 2 of the 5 rotation arms. Rojas and Prielipp? After that, there's nothing in St. Paul I'd consider potentially MLB worthy.
  14. bean5302
    I've been concerned about SWR for a long time. I'm not at all concerned about Keaschall right now since players who are "defensively versatile" in Twins-speak often take a couple of years to improve their glovework at a relatively static position.
  15. bean5302
    Jackie Robinson's contributions to baseball are enormous, and obviously from more than just what he did on the field. Through not only coming into the league, but dominating it early on, he made sure the road was paved for some of the greatest players in MLB history to add to the game and help reduce biogtry. Americans cling so hard to a ridiculous definition of black, though. Very little of the Atlantic slave trade ended in what would become the United States. Brazil, Columbia, and various island nations in the Caribbean saw the vast, vast majority of the forced transplants from the horrible practice. Nowadays, it's a political tool, not an ethnicity. Black means medium to dark brown skin, where somebody in the family tree can trace their ethnic roots back to somewhere in non-Eastern Africa, but only if those roots started between like 1500-1700 AD, and only if their forefathers were directly forced to what would become the United States so their forefather could have been a slave if they lived in the Confederacy, and only if the person doesn't speak Spanish or Portuguese, and only if the person considers themselves non-Islamic. Other people cannot qualify as black for MLB, but may in some other instances. 🙄 Jackie Robinson paved the way for a heck of a lot more players than just our current 6.8% politically motivated definition of "black" and I think it does an injustice to overlook his broader impact.
  16. bean5302
    I was at the game today since it felt like a good 1/2 day opportunity at work. SWR earned his stat line with a WHIP of 2.60 as the Red Sox were absolutely all over him. Obviously Keaschall didn't help, but it's a learning process. Younger player trying to force things and be a hero rather than take what's there. The Twins continue to play hard. Definitely a different feel to the club so far this year.
  17. bean5302
    I never got the impression Joe thought the Twins were a toy. I think he was was just ill-prepared to handle the role. I know this sounds rough, but I have him pegged as a nepo-baby. He was supposed to be a marketing expert and he was suited to replace Dave St. Peter on paper. The issue is Joe's ideas seemed to fall really flat with the fan base, and he wasn't nearly polished enough for public communications. On top of that, I think he wasn't skilled enough to grasp the business side of things. End result is you get bad redesigns, poor connection with the market audience for promotions, and public gaffes in statements to the media. It feels to me like Joe was unable to accept his own shortfalls and blamed the fans for his missteps like a true nepo-baby experiencing failure and accountability for the first time. Tough read on the situation, but exactly how I feel about it.
  18. bean5302
    Gotta be honest, nice color combo. Cool shoes.
  19. bean5302
    The percentage of valuable right handed batters vs left handed batters remains at a striking 50/50 split. Even going back 20 years to 2005, if a player had 2.0+ fWAR, they were 50/50 RHH vs. LHH despite only 10% of the US population being lefty.
  20. bean5302
    Also, this article is feels like a "winning fixes everything" scenario haha
  21. bean5302
    Also, feels like this is a "winning fixes everything" kind of article, LOL. the defaults on the registers are based in percentages. $2.00 beer = $0.30 tip.
  22. bean5302
    Though it is really infuriating the bartenders and service industry staff who are seeing sales during the game dropping to nothing. The $0.20 tips they're getting per drink has killed them. I do think it's a great promotion. I also think the Twins should take over what was First Draft Tap Haus in North Loop. Like very much so. Turn that into a Twins bar, offer pre-game happy hour, and a tailgating-like experience, ticket giveaways, bingo type things, etc. Get their presence out into the local scene and get immediate area fans into the Twins.
  23. bean5302
    I'm as harsh as anybody on guys who struggle right out of the gate in the low minors, but it's tough to say how pitchers are being developed. If they're asked to change their delivery style or use a bad (or new) pitch until it becomes good, the results can look rough. Generally, guys who don't get drafted until their Junior (or Senior) year in college are workhorse types without the ceiling, but some slip through the cracks buried in the depth chart until they can shine. Prielipp has been tasked with learning a new pitch (curveball) to improve his ability to start. I haven't looked too deep into the SSS so far. I'm looking forward to see what develops this year and hope there are some exciting prospects which climb up the ladder. I don't expect many guys from the MiLB rosters this year to have a big impact on the MLB club.
  24. bean5302
    Not sure why so many people seem enamored with projecting low/mid minors starters as relievers, but sure, he could be an aspiring middle reliever (roster filler), lol. Hopefully, he's working hard to aim higher. He's got a deep arsenal of pitches, but obviously they need to be good-ish to be of any value at the MLB level. I honestly don't like high velo pitchers as much as guys throwing 92-96 because it seems like the high 90s heat is enough to get guys through the lower minors, and even AA in many cases without any control or command. Langenberg's results in Cedar Rapids don't impress me, and that suggests his "stuff" is questionable, but I didn't dig in far enough on him to really know much.
  25. bean5302
    I'd bet it was Dozier. That short left field corner was where he lived for a few years.
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