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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    We don't need to try him out. Yes, it does hurt. It takes plate appearances away from somebody else you know is better and you want to potentially improve while hurting the relationship with the locker room. Why not sign some rando and play them? There are literally 1,000s of potential candidates across the globe. The Twins don't have time to play every single guy who has a shiny triple slash in lower baseball leagues.
  2. bean5302
    Depends on who is in charge of the front office. Depends on the CBA. As it is now, if Zoll remains in charge: Jeffers gone Bell back Rogers gone Ober back Wallner back Lewis back Zoll will keep every asset he has and run the team back unchanged because there's no room left on the 40 man.
  3. bean5302
    The QO is a big overpay for Jeffers, but probably not enough for him to accept it because I'm sure he's looking to test free agency. Jeffers is likely expecting a 3-4 year deal.
  4. bean5302
    Luke Keaschall can't catch baseballs. Can people please stop making ridiculous comments that he can improve to passable? He's been playing baseball for decades. He cannot track or catch baseballs. Btw, if he catches this baseball, Twins win 2-0 in regulation instead of 5-4 in extras...
  5. bean5302
    Sabato's expected numbers are dramatically lower than his actual, and his actual numbers aren't very impressive relative to his peers. I don't know how many guys we need to see before realizing hitters don't figure it out suddenly over age 25. Aaron Sabato will get eaten alive by MLB pitching.
  6. bean5302
    So you respond to me, suggest I'm wrong by changing the context, but I'm the one who created the strawman? Thanks! I was confused about how that worked until now.
  7. bean5302
    The Twins mishandled him, which is not surprising. He has 6 pitches and mechanical problems which needed addressing. Cutting back 2 of them and allowing him to work on control would have potentially paid dividends. Something to build on. Instead the Twins had Raya trying to build a stone wall by throwing bricks into the sky and wondering why the top of the wall didn't start forming first?
  8. bean5302
    The Twins scored 1 run against the Yankees. Complain all we want about whether it was Rogers, Ober or Culpeppers error at fault for the loss, but if you don't score more than 1 run against a team like the Yankees, you're not winning. The Twins haven't won a single game all year by scoring 1 run. The Twins have won 3 games this year allowing 8. The hitting is mostly to blame here.
  9. bean5302
    Shelton is Rocco 2.0. Zoll is Falvey 2.0. GMs choose managers who reflect their philosophies. I don't see any difference in how the team is constructed or plays. I see an endless supply of utility players who no set home (except Buxton) and the same type of management under Shelton that we saw under Baldelli.
  10. bean5302
    Every successful "organizational plan" identifies existing assets and core resources. Are you suggesting releasing all 200 or so players in the entire organization? Or are you just suggesting DFA/releasing all 40 man or 26 man roster guys? The team has assets to build around. Identifying the assets they have directs the plan. You're doing things backwards.
  11. bean5302
    Boldy changing the context of my comment and not even understanding the subject you're so confident in. Nice.
  12. bean5302
    The Twins have a dozen utility players. It's hard to even identify the real core of this team since it's hard to associate any of the core with an actual position. I'd echo the same as ESPN, though. The Twins are devoid of top talent. You're not building around Ryan or Lopez who are free agents after next year. Not to mention Lopez is a very big question mark after his peripherals have been in decline, he ages past 30 and is coming back from major arm surgery. Who are the Twins building around?
  13. bean5302
    Since Ober's return from the IL, he's gotten solid results. 10 GS, 3.88 ERA. The problem is the expected results aren't as shiny. Ober's giving the Twins 5.0+ innings and an ERA under 4.00 50% of the time which is more than adequate for a back end arm. He's only been blown up a couple times so he's honestly keeping the Twins in the game. Even by his worst advanced metric, xFIP, Ober's delivered a 5.12 or under result 70% of the time. I think it comes down to Ober being passable as a back end rotation arm if the Twins just need one guy to take some innings. I'd say he's probably pretty close to the equivalent to Dean Kremer. The problem is... do the Twins really need both Kremer and Ober in the same rotation? Not if they plan to compete.
  14. bean5302
    Uhhh, what? Exactly what blow is this to the Twins? They're already out of the playoffs and they should be playing the rookies to get a sense of their talent at the MLB level, and Larnach probably shouldn't be tendered.
  15. bean5302
    Arraez could catch baseballs. Luke Keaschall is the only player in MLB history I've watched who can't catch baseballs. Arraez was a solid fielder by most metrics. Low error rate because he had a soft glove and good fundamentals, plus good positioning which is backed up by DRS and UZR numbers. OAA hated Arraez because it doesn't reward fundamentals and it hurts players who have good positioning. Luke Keaschall is incompetent in the field, and I'd be pretty surprised if he was ever passable. The best bet was to keep playing him at 2B and force him to get better. Instead, the Twins make sure a lousy fielder keeps having to learn new positions. I cannot wait for Zoll and Shelton to be shown the door. Cannot wait.
  16. bean5302
    Who, from the 2023 team will still be on the roster next year? Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Buxton. That's... probably about it. Who are we moving on from?
  17. bean5302
    If Zoll isn't fired, it will be a catastrophic level of fail from ownership. He was assistant GM since 2020. He's been GM since 2024. He had his opportunity and failed miserably.
  18. bean5302
    Ryan's probably not going to be traded because he's good enough to start a playoff game and he's affordable. His flop down the stretch helps the Twins as much as it hurts them because there's no way Ryan isn't opting in to the $12MM option at this point. Given how he'd pitched in the first half, he was likely to cost the Twins a lot more. For every egg he lays, he decreases his arbitration value. That said, he only has one year of team control left and while he's affordable, $12MM isn't downright cheap. His surplus value just isn't going to be high enough to move teams to give much up for him.
  19. bean5302
    When Zoll is fired, there will probably be a massive house cleaning. Maki isn't likely to survive it as the new GM is going to want to bring in their own guys.
  20. bean5302
    It's like people are convinced playing center field is the equivalent of a hard core gym workout. Mostly, it's standing out there, a jog in and out of the dugout between innings. There are maybe 3 sprints a game for the average center fielder, along with an occasional light job to field a routine fly.
  21. bean5302
    Fangraphs has never provided a value for the production of a player. Ever. The site has cautioned against drawing value from WAR for several reasons. Perhaps, most notably, that wins have different value from team to team each season. 1 added WAR means dramatically more to an 85 win team than it does to a 100 win or 60 win team. Furthermore, there's much more value per WAR for a 5 WAR player than a 1 WAR player due to scarcity and limited roster sizes. 1 WAR players grow on trees. Fangraphs.com has provided a field called value which represents the collective cost in salary for all free agent contracts divided by the production in WAR that season for all the contracts. This represents the average cost of acquiring production similar to what the player produced through free agency. Buxton has never been a free agent. Buxton's contract is fine at this point. In my opinion, the contract was an overpay by a panicked Falvey when the Twins offered it to him. I remain convinced Buxton would have struggled to get more than a 2 year contract from any other MLB team in free agency, but whatever. On a repeating 1-2 year contract each season, Buxton would have earned more than $15MM a year. In addition to the years, Buxton eats up 2 roster spots. You need 2 starting caliber center fielders to roster Buxton. That's just how it is. The Twins don't owe Buxton ANYTHING.
  22. bean5302
    Buxton's pretty cautious for years in the field at this point. I think you're significantly overstating the number of injuries which stem from playing outfield. Other than an occasional eary career full speed run into walls or MiLB injury diving for a ball (finger/wrist) I don't recall outfield caused injuries. He's missed time being HBP or "running" which happens on the base paths too.
  23. bean5302
    He's fine. Fastball velo was 93.6mph, and his stuff was with reasonable tolerances of his season averages. 2nd half Joe Ryan does this every single year, it doesn't mean he's hurt.
  24. bean5302
    You mean like in 2010 when the team was 11th in opening day payroll and 2011 when the team was 9th? Or when they played at the Metrodump? It seems lost on people the Twins extended Mauer to one of the largest contracts of all time. The Twins extended Morneau, Nathan, and Cuddyer as well. They're not going to out spend the Dodgers.
  25. bean5302
    DH's still need to run the bases. Moving Buxton to DH won't meaningfully help his health. I've seen no evidence suggesting moving to a new position on the baseball field (including DH) makes chronic issues disappear. Jenkins is just as injury prone as Buxton so far, but Jenkins probably isn't going to be a good center fielder, though he may be adequate. Have to wait for a little more sample size, but right now, his initial sprint speed is poor. League average runners don't belong in CF.
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