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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Not Buxton Not Jeffers Not Ryan Article done.
  2. bean5302
    Can't agree with the sentiment on a 2027 lockout. It'll be catastrophic to baseball if it happens.
  3. bean5302
    I don't mind this list. I don't think the Twins have clear delineation between the ranking of their 10-20 prospects.
  4. bean5302
    There's a lot of truth here. Legit prospects are always younger than their competition. That said, in terms of raw "age" Winokur is younger than the competition because you see a lot of good prospectcollege guys at A+, but in his 3rd pro season, struggling in Cedar Rapids isn't a great projection model. He had a major improvement in his K rate, going from Ft. Myers to Cedar Rapids while dropping his K rate from 28% to 24% and there's probably more power coming. Batted ball data in the minors is tough to trust, but the lower BABIP over nearly 500 PA makes sense given the sky high pop up rate reported at almost 25% of fly balls he hit. Basically, Winokur didn't make enough contact, and when he did hit the ball, the contact quality was lacking. It will be interesting to see where the Twins put Winokur to start this season. Will he repeat the start in Cedar Rapids or now entering his 4th year, will the Twins push him up to Wichita? I think he still has a year left to rebound after a tough 2025.
  5. bean5302
    Kirilloff couldn't field and his offensive ceiling was limited because he didn't have raw power (108mph max exit velocity over his entire career), and he didn't have a ton of game power since he didn't hit fly balls. He had below average plate discipline and wouldn't take walks so his OBP was capped. His K rate was too high for his game power so his AVG/SLG were going to be capped, too. Kirilloff's 2023 probably represented something close to his ceiling where he was on pace for a 1.0 WAR full season, but even that comes with the Larnach caveat because Kirilloff was heavily shielded from lefties. If Kirilloff ever got a true full season, his bat was likely going to pan out to league average or a little better.
  6. bean5302
    Buxton isn't even close to top 10. Rod Carew HoF Bert Blyeven HoF Kirby Puckett HoF Harmon Killebrew HoF Joe Mauer HoF Kent Hrbek Tony Oliva HoF Frank Viola Chuck Knoblauch Brad Radke Johan Santana At least 5 more at least before Buxton's name comes up in terms of contributions to the Twins. Buxton has been with the Twins for a few years, and he's been All Star worthy for those years when healthy. A solid 5-6 WAR player if he plays a full season (which has happened 2x now). He ranks 13th in team history WAR, but few Twins players have seen less accomplished for the team over an 11 year tenure. Buxton has never won an MVP. He's never lead the Twins to an AL Championship game appearance. The only year the Twins won a playoff game during his tenure he was hurt and managed only a single plate appearance. He's a 2x All Star. He's not going to the HoF. Buxton wasn't the face of the franchise while Correa was here. Buxton could etch his name in the top 10, but he's not close right now.
  7. bean5302
    Bell hasn't had proven power since there were masking requirements in public spaces...
  8. bean5302
    Big contract guys like Harper are already talking about expectations of work stoppages. It's easy for the big guys with $300MM of guaranteed money coming their way. Owners bent over backwards in the last CBA. If there's a work stoppage, I expect it to be a lost season while the owners break the union hard. The MLBPA couldn't care less about the fans. They don't care about the fans, the game, the entertainment, the ambiance. The MLBPA believes baseball is all about name of the guy on the field and how much that player makes.
  9. bean5302
    I think it's all about lower body health for Lewis. If he can keep from blowing out a leg, I believe he'll have a great season.
  10. bean5302
    Here's hoping Gonzalez committed to his conditioning and speed improvement and his bat stays hotter so he can be early years Eddie Rosario instead of later career Eddie Rosario.
  11. bean5302
    Outfielders with 600+ PA over the past 3 years ranked by wRC+. Scroll alllllll the way down to 6th best outfielder hitter in all of baseball. So Gonzalez probably falls where? Like in between Aaron Judge and Juan Soto or something like that?
  12. bean5302
    When the pipeline starts off with 4 non-prospects, it feels a little like a reach. Baker is a 27 year old non-prospect. He looked like maybe there was something there until he reached AAA, wasn't able to throw strikes and got hammered when he did throw them. MacLeod is an age 26 player who was left unprotected and no team in baseball selected him. He can't throw strikes and was utterly destroyed in AAA last year. Lewis at least isn't over age 25 this year, but he could have been released altogether. He had a 8.38 BB/9 last year. No, that's not a typo. He literally averaged walking at least 1 guy every single inning he pitched. He couldn't hit the broad side of a barn. Canterino. Really? We're really talking about him still? Wheres Luis Rijo on this list? Culpepper is finally where the list should probably start as a borderline prospect. Entering his age 24 season, he was also passed over by every team in baseball in the Rule 5 draft. Culpepper follows the trend of not being able to throw strikes. Unfortunately, he also couldn't strike anybody out, and he never made it above AA.
  13. bean5302
    In recent history, I think 2018, 2021, 2024 were all more important than this season no matter what happens.
  14. bean5302
    We do not have a viable first baseman. End of story. Btw, Rhys Hoskins was just signed on a MiLB contract. Good thing the Twins have Bell at $7MM Bell is not a 1B, he's a DH who can technically stand where a 1B stands. Clemens can play 1B, but he can't hit. Wagaman projects as probably bad at both.
  15. bean5302
    I think Emma needs to be on the list of potential "backup center fielders" as it's put. If he doesn't have a shot at making the roster over Outman, that's a crime. Best case scenario is Rodriguez rakes in spring training, doesn't warp back into a K monster and Outman looks good enough to get the Twins something back in a trade. I'd really quite prefer the Twins trade Bell before Larnach, but I don't see it happening. I honestly wouldn't mind if they cast both of them off.
  16. bean5302
    Not what I was debating. I was debating whether or not Santana was arguably better during their peaks. Santana comes close with bWAR. Santana's not even remotely in the ballpark for fWAR or awards / accomplishments. Hall of Fame Factor comparison Koufax vs. Santana Black Ink 78 vs. 42 (40 is average) Gray Ink 151 vs. 122 (185 is average) HoF Monitor 227 vs. 82 (100 is likely) HoF Standards 46 vs. 35 (50 is average) It's clear in the voting criteria Koufax is leagues above Santana. Also, unlike Santana, who ended his career with a whimper followed by several lazy feeling failed comeback attempts, Koufax ended his career as the best pitcher in all of baseball. His memory of utter dominance still fresh in the minds of voters. They're just not as comparable as you think. It's night and day with awards. An MVP, an extra Cy Young, 3 more All Star selections... that's a chasm. Onto Santana's HoF case on it's own. Should Johan Santana be in Cooperstown on merit on his own? He was great for 3 straight years, and 1 other year during his career. Outside those seasons, he was good. He just barely squeezes by the Black Ink stats for average hall of famer, and falls short in Gray Ink, Hall of Fame Monitor, Hall of Fame Standards, and Santana falls short in 4 of 5 JAWS categories compared to Hall of Famers. Compared to his would be peers in the HoF, Santana falls well short of average. So Santana is a very iffy selection compared to peers. I think the argument is peers have been overlooked. Pitchers like Hershiser, Viola, Saberhagen, Cone, Kevin Appier (who nobody even remembers) are in that potentially "overlooked" category. There are tons of overlooked players or arguably overlooked players in baseball. Santana was slightly better than most of them at his absolute peak, but Santana was not leagues above his peers in MLB during Santana's dominant peak. There were usually pitchers nipping right at his heels. I'd like to see Johan Santana in the HoF, but my heart isn't absolutely broken he's not in.
  17. bean5302
    I used age 20 season as defined by BaseballReference.com. I'm sorry I had the equivalent of a grammatical error in my thesis based on your personal opinion of grammar style which should be used. Even if we used your "he actually didn't debut until age 23" as a moving goalpost in desperation to help Emma's case, my point remains. This is a make or break year for Emma, who will be in his age 23 season this year. I looked back through the previous 5 years and identified zero players who fell into Emma's bucket (international free agents signed prior to age 18) who have generated consistent value worth a starting position in MLB when they didn't debut before age 24. Feel free to look back 100 years.
  18. bean5302
    I mean... they're somewhat close. Koufax ('61-'66) vs. Santana ('03-'08) 156 vs 156 ERA+ 1632 vs 1305 Innings 129 vs 98 Wins 35 vs 6 SHO 3 vs 2 Cy Youngs 1 vs 0 MVP 5 vs 3 ERA Leader 6 vs 3 All Star 2 vs 3 Led League in pitcher WAR 46.4 vs 39.8 bWAR 2.19 vs 2.85 ERA 0.97 vs 1.03 WHIP 9.4 vs 9.4 K/9 2.3 vs 2.1 BB/9 But Koufax had better base stats, achievements and awards across the board, and Koufax also pitched more innings so he generated more WAR. Santana was perhaps close to as good as Koufax relative to their peers, but I can't find any way Koufax shouldn't be considered the more dominant pitcher.
  19. bean5302
    NO. If he doesn't have the skills in his 8th year under contract, it's not coming.
  20. bean5302
    It's always entertaining to see how the TD Hype Machine spins the fans up on this site. It's not that I want Emma to wash out, I just don't see the production and the skills which should be there by now. ZERO. That's how many international prospects signed before age 18 who have debuted at age 24+ and gone on to be significant contributors in the past 5 years. This IS a make or break year for Emma. He either forces his way onto the roster or he can pretty much be written off. If he makes the roster and doesn't do well, there's still a glimmer of hope, but it's not bright. If he can't even make the roster, it's over.
  21. bean5302
    I think a lot of the issue is the WAR bar changing. 60 career WAR was supposed to be an automatic. Like 3,000 hits or 500 HR or 300 career wins, etc. Somewhere along the lines people changed that to 60 career WAR for consideration. There is no accumulator in baseball history who has ever gotten to 60 career WAR. It's not possible.
  22. bean5302
    Yeah, I'll stick with real life results at the MLB level with concrete examples.
  23. bean5302
    If he's not good enough to make an MLB roster, he's not good enough. He's 23 in 4 days. He's a professional baseball player under contract for his 8th year in the Twins' system now. As an international prospect, he's getting OLD for never having seen a game in the big show. Top International prospects who have significant careers debut before 23. Polanco was 20. Kepler and Sano were 22. Guys like Acuna, Julio Rodriguez, Chourio, etc, often debut by age 20-21. This idea player talent evolves isn't realistic. Players have a certain amount of innate talent. Polish to get that talent MLB ready doesn't take 8 years. It's how fans gets confused about the DaShawn Keirsey's of the world who suddenly grow talent become MLB caliber at age 26. No, they don't. Players who do not reach MLB by age 25 aren't going to amount to anything, but that includes the college draft players. High school picks are 3-5 years. Elite high school players in 3, back end MLB talent is 5 years. If they're over 5 years, they're probably not going to be significant contributors. That means if the high school pick hasn't debuted by 22-23, they're probably not significant impact players, ever. International prospects have debut expectations which are even a little tougher because they start their professional journey earlier. Emma is coming into 8 years in the program. He's had 7 years to polish what talent he has, and he still hasn't been good enough to force his debut.
  24. bean5302
    Not really. He's on his last option this year and he hasn't had a single plate appearance in the big show. I don't expect he's going to get through the year without burning that option meaning this is his last year to impress before some very hard decisions come to a head. Years and years of MiLB experience without making MLB says a lot about his talent level already.
  25. bean5302
    Yeah, it has nothing to do with Baldelli batting Wallner lead-off or Falvey's roster construction. Here are the Twins RBI leaders... 2025 - 83 RBI Byron Buxton 2024 - 71 RBI Carlos Santana 2023 - 65 RBI Carlos Correa Matt Waller, Right Fielder, President of Baseball Operations & Manager
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