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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    @Dave Lemke care you expand on your disagreement?
  2. bean5302
    The Gausman thing eats me up. Gausman over Kramer makes so much sense.
  3. bean5302
    I think the Twins had tunnel vision. I like adding Taylor Ward, but I'd rather have moved Josh Bell and at least one outfielder if the Twins acquired Ward.
  4. bean5302
    Zach Neto's last 3 years are better than any Twins shortstop since Roy Smalley by fWAR. If you go by bWAR, Zach Neto over his past 3 seasons would arguably be the greatest Twins shortstop over 3 years in franchise history. Glad everybody is convinced Culepper and Houston are guaranteed MVPs and all, but...
  5. bean5302
    Under the current CBA, Zach Neto can be forecasted at 3.5 WAR for 3 more years. So about $90MM of future value. His salary is probably going to be something like $6MM, $10MM, $15MM or $31MM over the next three years. $90MM - $31MM = $59MM. Walker Jenkins might not be enough on his own. Of course, teams don't trade away their #1ish prospects in the top 30 for players who aren't game changers, so Jenkins was a reasonable ask by value, but not a reasonable pay for Neto. The Twins were probably trying to package a deal around more lower graded prospects, but balked when there wasn't a bargain to be had.
  6. bean5302
    It's honestly Pohlad's fault. He agreed to sign these players knowing full well they weren't MVP-ready yet. Like, when he's running fielding drills, does Tom even correct the mistakes?
  7. bean5302
    Agreed. That giant head on top of a bi-pedal body is just a recipe for balance issues.
  8. bean5302
    Looked just like the Twins vs. Astros playoff games in 2023.
  9. bean5302
    I really don't like this format. If TD wants to manufacture the debate, it should be in a better format with bite sized pieces in a single article going back and forth like a real debate. I know I've participated in a similar format this in the past, but it just doesn't resonate with me.
  10. bean5302
    Joe Ryan probably drops in at $25MM assuming 8MM per year. Given arbitration is light on the pay, I think $20MM is probably ball-parkish. He's consistently been a 3 WAR pitcher, and it certainly looks like he'll be right at that this year. The problem is he's not worth any big trade value if he's making $20MM and he's got $25MM of value production, is he? $25MM value, $20MM salary. $5MM trade value. You're talking like a #10-15 org prospect.
  11. bean5302
    Lewis is still making adjustments, and the line drives are showing up, but his pop up rate is still too high. Still, he's hitting the ball extremely well over his past 20 games, and he was already hitting well the 20 games before that. I'm not sure what his ceiling is anymore. Also not concerned with a 24% K rate. Median average for MLB qualified hitters is 21%.
  12. bean5302
    He's a shortstop every day unless Houston gets a call. Then the question is 3B or 2B.
  13. bean5302
    He has been just recently. That's the thing with SSSS data. A little change here or there has a big shift. I just don't see how Roden fits well on the roster right now given how heavy the Twins are on left handed bats and the Twins firmly committed to the platoon game.
  14. bean5302
    I have no idea how Skubal's trade impacts Joe Ryan's trade value. Skubal's arbitration ruling at the beginning of this year will undoubtedly have a major impact on the CBA, and therefore, Joe Ryan's trade value. If the CBA were to continue as is, the Skubal ruling probably puts Joe Ryan into a $20MM/yr arbitration value for next year. Obviously, the CBA is going to change, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the arbitration rules being graded in a way that continues to make Joe Ryan a $15-20MM ruling for next year.
  15. bean5302
    Where did you get the impression he wasn't intelligent? I don't think he has great instincts compared to other MLB level players, but I haven't seen anything in his interviews to back up your claim. He's not drunkenly riding scooters into fire trucks while recovering on the IL or shredding his heel on a steel staircase celebrating a win in a club barefoot...
  16. bean5302
    I've enjoyed paying extra attention to Lackey and Tinney so far. They're both clearly adapting to professional baseball, and it seems like they're both struggling to find pitches they actually want to swing at. I'm not sure that's a good sign for baseball's pitcher development process.
  17. bean5302
    Re: Rojas. Twins motto. "Positional flexibility" apparently extends to reliever vs. starter. Maybe our pitching prospect will start drawing straws to figure out where they play like the positional players?
  18. bean5302
    Does anybody think Pohlad is hedging on the CBA and a hard push for a salary cap by owners? I mean, he doesn't have to lift a finger if there's a hard floor at $175MM, does he?
  19. bean5302
    Okay, so do you option Royce Lewis or DFA and release Josh Bell to "give him a chance"?
  20. bean5302
    Austin Martin is a utility outfielder. Same as Roden at this point, but Martin bats right. The combination is redundant. It would be more clear what roster spots the Twins actually needed if they stopped drawing straws when it comes to what position a player is going to be at before game time.
  21. bean5302
    It would have been a smarter move if the Twins had ditched Bell or traded Wallner. The Twins still have 3 players with the exact same profile. Left handed hitting DH (Bell is a switch hitter in name only)
  22. bean5302
    You'd have a better argument if Sabato wasn't right in line with his expected results last year in AAA or if you had some underlying metrics to point to why a 27 year old player who has been barely adequate throughout his entire MiLB career has suddenly figured out how to be good at hitting. Happens all the time in baseball. DaShawn Keirsey, Jr., Carson McCusker, Kyler Fedko.
  23. bean5302
    Sabato. xwOBA in AAA this year is an awful .313. That's like an expected OPS of .675-ish/wRC+ 70ish when the average player in that league OPS's .775. It's just like his last year in AAA. It's all luck.
  24. bean5302
    Isn't the question about whether Sabato should be on the roster, not whether Alex Jackson should be on the roster? The Twins are not legally obligated to have bad players on the roster, right? I mean, I don't think they are unless you know of some secret back room deal TD writers have been made aware of?
  25. bean5302
    He's not a traditional bench player. Sabato would be a platoon DH bat you'd only expect to see starting against left handed pitching. Last year, based on Fangraphs, left handed pitchers made 1,233 starts of 9,720 starts. That's 1 in 8. So Sabato would start maybe 20 games a year sooooo 100 PA there, and another 50 pinch hitting?
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