bean5302

While it's great Sim was able to get balls to inexplicably find gloves instead of seats, his metrics have always suggested he was living on the edge and he was overdue for this kind of regression. His fans tend to point to what I consider a completely broken metric (bWAR/rWAR). My opinion is based on 2024 Nola vs. Berrios who had largely identical ERA, ERA+, RA9, yet had massive differences in WAR. I've discovered nonsensical WAR values in Baseball Reference previously only to see him adjusted in subsequent years due to positional value duplication, etc. Buxton's 2017 is a good example where I believe his WAR value has been adjusted/reduced 2x over the years due to calculation errors and adjustments. Baseball Reference made a change to pitcher WAR value in recent years, and I really don't care for it. In any case, Sim doesn't have any good pitches and he can't throw strikes or they'll get destroyed. That's not a recipe for a pitcher with sustainable success built into his profile, and that has ALWAYS been SWR's profile. Aside from that, last time I checked, you can't substitute his lucky performances from previous years into current games, and the current games are the ones the Twins are playing. If you want to trot an 8 ERA guy out there, I think you'll be amongst the "nobody wants to see that" group. Perhaps there are a cluster of 0.001% die hard Sim fans who believe he's going to suddenly start getting results again.

There are going to be a lot of really PO'ed fans. I mean REALLY PO'ed. Great job, Pohlads.

He's holding his own on the season in total, but quickly regressing to the player he has been. First 95 PA = .333/.484/.431 OPS .915 Next 93 PA = .205/.247/.295 OPS .542 Defensively, he's only been playable in left field.

They're all low K rate pitchers which makes it harder to get out of jams. I think fringe level pitchers might often own ERAs higher than FIPs, but it's purely speculative. So... tough to say correlation vs. causation.

I don't see Lewis as ready. He's still hyper aggressive and swinging at junk. He owns a 4.2% BB to a 33.3% K rate over his past 5 games. Nobody gives a rat's behind if he can demolish AAA pitchers. He needs to demonstrate the approach needed which will allow him to compete against MLB caliber pitchers who can actually throw strikes vs. International League pitchers who have become absolute trash in recent years.

SWR has been utterly awful. He was not wanted or needed, period. Nobody should be saying they actually wanted to see Sim on the mound in the big show. What can be argued is maybe there's something in the tank from the bullpen the Twins could have tapped into. Sim is not and never has been an MLB caliber rotation arm in my opinion. He's gotten results, but it's taken a fair bit of luck and a whole lot of kid gloves yanking him after short inning starts which tax the bullpen. It's also worth noting the Twins optioned him last year after his poor performance forced him off the roster. He simply does not have the stuff. He has never had the stuff. Sim has always had to rely upon pinpoint locations at the very edges and corners of the zone. This is exactly what I expected out of SWR which is why I've felt he belongs in the 'pen if he's going to make it. We'll see if he gets claimed. I think he will, but I've been wrong about that in the past where I'm a Twins fan so I see potential in Twins players who are fringy. If Sim goes unclaimed, well, that is virtually irrefutable proof Sim isn't viewed as an MLB level talent.

Agreed. Also, Berrios has been so much better than he's gotten credit for around here. Toronto has been willing to hang him out to dry when he doesn't have his best stuff, but the Blue Jays won something like 60% of their games when Berrios was on the mound for them in those first 1.33 years.

Some Minnesota Twins starters. SWR, Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer, Randy Dobnak, Chris Paddack. 4.89 ERA, 4.66 FIP, 4.70 xFIP 4.56 ERA, 4.49 FIP, 4.57 xFIP 4.71 ERA, 4.60 FIP, 4.82 xFIP 4.88 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 4.25 xFIP 4.86 ERA, 4.51 FIP, 4.30 xFIP Not in order. Just random. Most were in their 20s when they pitched for the Twins.

I feel pretty strongly another team will claim him if he makes it to that point. I wonder if the Twins are planning to see if they can trade him as part of this move because the team is also thinking he'd get claimed and this was just a way to make a more efficient marketing effort.

It works? MLB has substantially more parity than the NFL, NBA or NHL already.

Lee can't hit and he can't field. I don't understand the support he gets here. It's seriously mind boggling. He's a AAAA guy or utility bench piece.

I do think the Twins should have moved him to the bullpen because I don't think he'll clear waivers. Maybe the Twins have a trade they're trying to pull off? There are some teams who are going to look at his results the past couple years and conclude he's at least worth checking out, I would think. Here's a link to the article on MLBTR. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/05/twins-designate-simeon-woods-richardson-for-assignment.html

The MLB owners are absolutely trying to sow dissent in the union. I feel like the owners proposal is more pandering to fans than the 90% of MLB/MiLB players in the first offer, though. The salary cap/floor is the piece which will be the most difficult hurdle to get over, and I think getting the framework in place will let the rest of the pieces fall into place. In regard to the second paragraph, the Royals already locked Witt, Jr. up for 11 years, but the MLBPA will be pushing for maximum flexibility when players want it, and minimum flexibility for teams. The MLBPA won't want anything which makes it so the Pirates have some sort of advantage to keeping Skenes, for example. Skenes should be able to choose where he wants to play, and nobody wants to play in Pittsburgh (at least right now). MLBPA's dream is every single contract is fully guaranteed, has a full NTC, and every single year of a contract is a player opt out at any time during the year and the ability to negotiate with other teams while under contract, etc.

1. There's a general idea of what MLB makes, combined, in terms of revenue. I don't think it's particularly valuable or warranted for MLB to "open their books" considering MLBPA was happy to make their proposal without books being opened. Aside from that, how many thousands of hours of review would it take to truly get to the bottom of detailed accounting records for 30 companies, all with different owners operating in different states, each bringing in hundreds of millions in revenue? I don't see how a detailed financial audit of MLB by the MLBPA would be valuable. 2. I'm not sure how much more revenue you think there is to share (with the TV revenue being included) or why MLBPA would care if there was full revenue sharing. They currently don't care. I also think this is counter-productive. There should be incentive for trying to make a good game day experience, and I think teams who work to provide a good experience would be vehemently opposed to funding teams like the Twins who suck at it. That said, I think a 100% revenue share is required if there is a tight floor/ceiling because there has to be one from a math standpoint. 3. I don't actually care about the gap. I don't think the MLBPA cares about the gap, either. I care about competitive balance, and forcing a tight floor and ceiling hasn't improved competitive balance in any of the sports. It seems to put teams into a long term competitive position (either good or bad). 4. Deferred contracts are already reduced to NPV at a rate of 4%, if I recall. 5. I don't think MLB cares about the minimum. You could make the minimum $5MM, but it would mean big contracts would be moved to the endangered species list. The MLBPA would absolutely hate this. 6. I don't think MLB cares about the MiLB minimum, either. The MLBPA needs to balance where they want the money to go. If MLB teams spend more on the minors, they can't spend as much on MLB players. I think there is a general lack of understanding by fans of compensation for MiLB players. 7. I don't think it's necessary to consider the max length of contracts allowed. Contract length is dictated by market experience. We've already seen contract length tightening as a result of some bad big contracts. A salary cap will quicken the adjustment. Other than the Dodgers in recent seasons, the competitive balance in MLB is excellent, IMHO. Certainly better than NHL/NBA/NFL which have seen a decade of dynasties where 1-2 teams in a league basically make the championship series/game every single year.

Not well enough to run full speed, jump into the air and body check them with an unpadded shoulder.

Or the Twins could choose to get to the $174MM floor using better players than they have rather than just extending all the guys on the roster.

He may never find his way into the big show again. That's true. If he does, it's going to be because his bat looks like it will play. I don't think it's something which is going to be justified based on his ability to stand at different positions on the field is my point.

Not panicked. He's at AAA for a repeat in his 3rd season. Elite HS draft picks generally make the big show in 2-3 years. He's still on track. The constant injuries are a bit concerning. The ceiling feels capped based on his swing type and power as a result, but it's early on.

Atrocious, huh? Lets pretend that statement is accurate. Why would the Twins even welcome an atrocious hitter in the lineup? DH is worth 2.0 WAR less than 3B in a full season. 1B is worth 1.5 WAR less than 3B in a full season. RF and LF is worth 1.0 WAR less than 3B in a full season. It would be nonsensical to have a hitter who is so bad they can't be used at 3B regularly receive plate appearances while holding down a negative value defensive position. There is only 1 position in baseball where it's potentially worthwhile to pencil an atrocious hitter into the lineup. The argument Royce Lewis is a defensive catcher on par with the best catchers in the league is so obviously ludicrous I'm assuming you're certainly not implying that. Or maybe shortstop? It's not great to have an "atrocious" hitter at SS, but the Twins made due with Brooks Lee and Andrelton Simmons in seasons recent enough to remember. It's a stretch to have an atrocius hitter play there, though, unless they're like, Ozzie Smith. I'd also be shocked if you had the opinion Lewis would be such a gifted fielder there now that his decline in quickness and speed would likely be severe limitations on his range. Simply put, your argument doesn't make any sense. In order for positional flexibility to add to a players value, they have to hit well enough to justify penciling them into the lineup on a regular basis at negative value defensive positions OR they need to be exceptional defenders at premium positions. If Lewis doesn't hit well enough to justify playing him at 3B, he doesn't hit well enough to have him on the roster, period.

Banda's latest changes don't have much sample size, especially given all the changes. Not just to the leg lift, but also to the pitch types and the velos the last two outings. It seems like this is the kitchen sink approach as he's on the edges of his MLB career ending.

I don't think it's reasonable to ignore everything in pink to focus only on his ERA for two seasons with the Dodgers. Banda was fringey when he was young and in his prime. 2024 is honestly the outlier. That's the only season where he got solid results AND his results were largely expected. 2018, where he pitched 14.2 innings, was the only other time his results and expected results were acceptable for a bullpen piece.

per baseballcube, 2017 1st round draft. https://www.thebaseballcube.com/content/draft_year/2017/ 1. 4.6 fWAR. That's a success. Not a home run, but a success. 2. 10.2 fWAR. 3. 9.1 fWAR 4. Fail 5. 1.9 fWAR 6. Fail 7. 1.4 fWAR 8. Fail 9. 2.0 fWAR 10. Fail 11. 4.8 fWAR 12. 4.2 fWAR 13. 10.6 fWAR 14. Fail 15. Fail 16. 5.3 fWAR 17. Fail 18. Fail 19. 3.3 fWAR 20. 9.5 fWAR 21. 1.5 fWAR 22. Fail 23. Fail 24. 8.2 fWAR 25. Fail 26. Fail 27. Fail 28. Fail 29. Fail 30. Fail 31. 10.5 fWAR 32. Fail 33. Fail 34. Fail 35. 8.7 fWAR - Brent Rooker 36. Fail Lewis has superior value over 26 of the 36 first rounders. 72nd percentile so far. Fail is anything under 1.0 career fWAR

As I recall, the expectation was Emma was only going to be out a couple weeks so he wouldn't need surgery, and he was set to return from the IL when he aggravated the injury. That could have been one of the 56x he's hurt hurt his thumb sliding, though.

I think that proposal honestly hides the underlying cause we're seeing so many injuries by encouraging potentially bad practices to continue, and I think it favors the big money teams who can afford to stash MLB-caliber talent at the top of the minors.

I'm not sure what the intent of the article was, maybe just entertaining reading, which I think it is. I'm wishing Jax all the best, and I'm hoping he's successful in his return to starting bid, and that the return continues to bear fruit long term despite recent flash in the pan results we've seen in MLB. The thing I took away was the Twins could have converted Jax a couple years ago and reaped the rewards. It's a bummer the Twins weren't willing to do so when they had a need for starting pitching, but that's the choice Falvey made. In regard to the trade, I don't think it's reasonable to take much away from it. Taj Bradley was uncoachable in Tampa and he wouldn't have been successful without the wake up call being traded to Minnesota gave him. This is similar to how SWR got his wake up call after the 2023 season watching everybody else pass him on the depth charts as his clock was ticking, and SWR was approaching DFA candidate status.