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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    A dying billionaire owner. Just like Illitch with the Tigers back in the early 2010s when he pushed the Tigers' payroll to $200MM. The Padres were a financial mess and MLB had to step in to force the team to reduce it's payroll in order to meet solvency standards. So if the solution is to potentially bankrupt themselves in order to push payroll as part of a reckless pursuit of a World Series run before they face imminent death, I think that's probably not a good sales pitch to the Pohlads right now. Though the Padres approach does support the spend money to make money philosophy, and commitment to the expenditures as a way to get fans on board. If the Twins had maintained the $150MM salary range for 2024, 2025 and 2026, I doubt fans would be so apathetic to the team.
  2. bean5302
    If Zoll had done his job at the deadline, there wouldn't be any roadblocks for Jenkins right now. I guess Larnach is going to have to become a bench bat, Roden to AAA is probably the best combo. DFA Go, Fedko, Gray, Orze or somebody.
  3. bean5302
    Line drive expected BABIP is over .600. Lewis' Line drive rate was 29.1% (higher than any qualified hitter in the past couple of years). His BABIP is going to be at least .400ish with a 30% line drive rate, power and low ground ball rate. So a little lucky? Probably. Not that lucky, though. I see this stuff about Lewis every time he has a rough 5 game patch as people are just stumbling over themselves to find reasons to trash him. Last 5 games - .056/.056/.056 OPS .112 wRC+ (85), wOBA .049, xwOBA .199 Prev 15 games - .346/.386/.577 OPS .963 wRC+ 169, wOBA .414, xwOBA .391
  4. bean5302
    I think this can be summed up with Larnach's timing being off a little. Larnach is also pressing. His swing rate is too high (back like it used to be). People forget Larnach was Wallner without power. 35% K rates and occasional home runs. Buxton's been slumping. We should probably DFA him to make room for Jenkins. Buxton's last 20 games .147/.253/.176 OPS .430 wRC+ 24 TBH, I guess DFA'ing Larnach wouldn't be terrible if you think Jenkins is better. I don't see a good reason to bring Larnach back next year and it does clear up regular playing time for Jenkins.
  5. bean5302
    I continue to be interested in a World Series caliber team. A team which won't just embarrass fans if they make the playoffs. I don't see this Twins team as a likely contender. I think it hinges more on... Connor Prielipp. He's being asked to transform into a playoff caliber starter. The Twins NEED 3. Ryan, Bradley, Prielipp. That's our best shot. Oofffda. Clarity. What role do players have? I can't figure it out. Could the Twins pull it off? I think they have the bullpen. I think the Twins are at a sizeable disadvantage in the rotation, but I also think the Twins could potentially have enough at the plate to make it happen with the right players in the right spots.
  6. bean5302
    I feel like that's a pretty extreme take that no player or manager would ever have an impact on team chemistry or work ethic, etc. There are some folks who will argue the manager doesn't have any impact (usually when attempting to protect an unpopular manager under siege by fans). The manager brings more than locker room attitude, though. The manager brings philosophy on who plays, who doesn't, why they get the opportunity, coaching philosophy, bullpen decisions, etc. The question at play is whether Bell could have that kind of impact on this Twins team? I think, if Bell was a Rafael Devers kind of crybaby, selfish, ****head, he could potentially cause a destabilization, but I don't believe he's likely to be a lift. I think the Twins are populated by a lot of good guys. In any case, I don't generally subscribe to the intangibles which aren't specifically called out by players.
  7. bean5302
    I think people are being a little overly harsh here on Larnach in general. He's not the 0.0 WAR replacement level player he looked to be the first couple years. He's a valid rosterable guy for a lot of teams. He's a solid DH can play in about 75% of games and when used appropriately (shielded from left handers entirely) he can put together a 1.5 WAR 400 plate appearance season. There is value in that. It's true I think Larnach should have been traded (or some other Twins players) to clear up the left handed DH/corner outfielder specialists role, having an incompetent front office doesn't mean Larnach himself is incompetent. He's just not as valuable to the Twins.
  8. bean5302
    Bell is well known as a quality person. When you assert his value in the win column comes from being a quality person, there needs to be some sort of logic behind that. I don't see the lack of quality people or veteran leadership on the team this year.
  9. bean5302
    I wasn't aware the Twins had a "good locker room guy" shortage and they need Bell to show them how to be supportive? I guess I haven't spent any time on the roster and in the locker room myself so I'll have to defer to your experiences in the clubhouse and traveling with the team because you seem to have first hand knowledge of Josh Bell being "outstanding" in the locker room.
  10. bean5302
    Larnach has just gotten much more aggressive at the plate. He's swinging a lot more (inside and outside the zone) and he's falling behind a ton. His first pitch strike rate is 69% over the past 20 games. Tough for anybody to succeed giving a free strike to the pitcher to open the at bat. There is some regression probably in there as he was quite a bit above expected and now he's way below expected. The quality of Larnach's contact has been poor, not good. Average exit velo is good, but his barrel rate has been off. Hitting a 90mph ground ball sounds good from an exit velo standpoint, but from a quality of contact and expected result standpoint, not so good. The Twins wasted an opportunity to free up roster space.
  11. bean5302
    I think it's ridiculous you believe age can be used as a blanket excuse. Some players have the talent needed to succeed in professional baseball. Some don't. Young doesn't. Quintin Young plays in Ft Myers. The lowest level of full season minor league baseball. Young has the absolute worst strikeout rate of any player in any division in that entire league, including 76 other players younger or the same age as him, with more than 100 PA. Young has 404 plate appearances worth of struggle this year, and even worse, his already miserable wRC+ 76 is better than his expected results. Young lacks talent, it's not an age thing. I find your position to be indefensive here.
  12. bean5302
    It's my opinion that games matter in April just as much as they matter in September. Josh Bell is nothing more than an overpaid roster constriction.
  13. bean5302
    at least until his next ice cold streak.
  14. bean5302
    It'll be interesting to see what happens given the double-surgery. I think Festa is done, but I don't see the harm in keeping him on the roster to get a look at him in the Spring Training. The Twins give away roster spots to bottom feeders every year under the Falvinzoll mantra. Who knows?
  15. bean5302
    He's on the 60 day IL so he's not really causing any issues, and he's certainly a better investment than Tristan Gray, Alex Jackson or Kyler Fedko.
  16. bean5302
    Yep. Young could be released today and I'd have no complaints. He's a total non-prospect. If he was striking out 35% of the time, it'd be dicey enough. Even worse is Young knows the zone well enough, he's just completely overwhelmed by A-ball pitchers. He knows a strike is coming, but can't hit it.
  17. bean5302
    It's cute you think all front offices perform well when compared to their peers. Welcome to my ignore list.
  18. bean5302
    Agreed. I consider Festa's career likely over.
  19. bean5302
    Alonso got $150MM. I gave a range well under that, but even so, I don't think teams care much about health from 4+ years ago. If Lewis qualifies at 504 PA this year, plays 140+ games the next two years, it won't block him from getting a 4-5 year deal or $20MM+ per year from my perspective. Of course, neither one of us knows how Royce feels about the organization at all. That'll make a pretty big impact on how excited he is to stick around long term.
  20. bean5302
    I don't really care much. Being upset at the tiebreakers for a sub-.500 team making the playoffs when the team didn't earn it anyway seems like a waste of time.
  21. bean5302
    I don't have any issues with Bauer, but he certainly hasn't looked great in the Mexican League recently and he sucked last year in Japan. Bauer made things pretty interesting to start the year in Indy Ball, but his fastball is frequently down in that 92mph range early in games. Against better (still not MLB caliber) players in Mexico, Bauer's been much less successful. He's probably the best starter on the team, but certainly not amongst the best starters in the league there. You'd have to look at a few things. One, is he good enough to be effective at the MLB level? That's pretty questionable. Two, is he good enough to push a different Twins starter out of the rotation? That seems far-fetched. Three, is he good enough to be a playoff rotation starter at the MLB level? Pie in the sky. MLB baseballs are different than Japanese, Indy League or Mexican league balls so Bauer would need to sign, show up to the team, adapt to different pitch movement for the baseballs and prove he's got enough in the tank before 9/1 to get called up. Putting aside his performance risk on a minor league contract (basically zero). Bauer is basically in the Kaepernick zone. There is a legitimate case by the league to argue Bauer's just not good enough, and there's a legitimate case that since Bauer is publicly willing to sign a no-risk MiLB contract and there's some track record to suggest he might be good enough that there's no good reason no team is taking a chance. Bauer's team mates have largely supported his return after he was exonerated again and again. I'm surprised the MLBPA hasn't gotten involved too much in this, but that probably speaks volumes in regard to the evidence they've seen.
  22. bean5302
    Ryan is expected to be weeks away. Just threw a small bullpen session recently.
  23. bean5302
    Is Royce Lewis on the Twins? Is Royce Lewis a 1B / viewed as a 1B? How does Royce Lewis view himself? How does Royce Lewis perform down the stretch? If he's healthy the rest of the season, he'll be close to 500 PA. If he hits like he has for the past 20 games, his season will end at a wRC+ 120ish with probably 2.5ish WAR. His stats have not "sucked." It's not like Lewis has ever posted a season below 1.0 WAR actual, despite missing a ton of time. A 150G season rate of 2023 = wRC+ 152, 5.9 fWAR 2024 = wRC+ 106, 2.0 fWAR 2025 = wRC+ 85, 1.4 fWAR 2026 = wRC+ 120ish, 3.0 fWAR (assuming he continues to hit like recently wRC+ 146 over last 20) Now, what Lewis is worth 2 years from now on the open market, I have no idea. If he keeps raking and stays healthy, he'll be entering free agency at age 30 with 3 consecutive healthy enough seasons. I'm guessing he'd probably get 4-5 years and $100MM+. In 2029, what he did 4+ years ago won't factor in the contract to limit it to less than that. I think he'd probably be in line for Alonso money. vs. What happens if Royce reverts back to a league average hitter who is hurt all the time? Obviously, he'd be taking a 1yr $6MM deal or something like that. It all depends on how Lewis views his future, where he plays, etc. In my opinion, his arbitration values will likely hinge greatly on his performance next year. Continuing his current production rate, I'd say $5MM, $15MM for $20MM over the next two years, but then again, you and I disagree on how the final year of arbitration will be viewed moving forward. You seem to believe the fair market value escalator will only apply to super elite mold breakers (like Skubal) while I think it will be applied universally. Provided Lewis believes in himself, over that 4 year period, he could expect to make $60-80MM vs. your $48MM offer. The kicker is Lewis would be entering free agency well over the hill at age 32 vs. at the tipping point of age 30. Giving up age 30-31 seasons would be pretty catastrophic to his free agency value IMHO.
  24. bean5302
    Nice to see Houston starting to come out of what was a pretty rough stretch. Looks like he's changing his approach to find out where the sweet spot of power vs. strike outs is for himself.
  25. bean5302
    It'll be interesting to see who the new GM and front office will prioritize after Pohlad fires Zoll.
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