Whammy

If Logan Gilbert is worth Erod+Quick+Ross, then I'm trading Joe Ryan yesterday.

I view this as "there's always a price" I'm sure the the Pohlads view hanging onto the Twins until after a new CBA as a smart financial decision, but if someone came along tomorrow and offered 2.5 Billion, then all this "we're in this for the long term" talk goes out the window, which is totally understandable.

Being owned by individuals who made their money in private investment firms is way different than being owned by a private investment firm.

I see Larnach the way you do. I just don't see how you get him regular playing time with all of the young guys who need roster spots and playing time. He had a perfectly fine 2025, but not good enough to push away playing time for the young guys. I think he's movable in a low wattage trade, but I really want that to be before we would have to offer arbitration. If we don't get an offer, by the arbitration deadline, then I'd just non-tender him and move on. The problem i have with them hanging onto Lewis is different. I do think, if used correctly, that he could be a valuable member of some team's 26 man roster (including the Twins). But, I just don't at all trust the Twins to use him correctly. There's too much history. I'd be shopping him in November and I DO think we'll get some offers, especially given his second additional year of team control. Different than Larnach though, if I get to the deadline and haven't gotten an offer appealing enough, I definitely offer him arbitration.

I know beggars can't be choosers but I'd rather a "Global Investment Firm" not be the owners of the Twins.

Two things. First, I hate Keaschall at 1B. I think he'd be terrible there. Second, I totally agree that the "first baseman must be a power hitter" is an outdated concept. And I think the Twins have shown over the last 5 years that they agree. They'd much rather move an infielder to 1B and have above average defense from them instead of moving a lumbering corner OF to 1B and hope he survives. They view 1B as an infielder that needs infielder skills. Not a place to dump a guy who's not fast enough to cover ground in the OF. I think it's time to move on from Lewis, but I do think with another year at 1B he could be an elite defender there. I just don't view Keaschall as having infielder skills and instincts and I think putting him at 1B would be a mistake. He was statistically a neutral defender in RF by the end of the year. With some reps I think he'll be totally fine in a corner OF spot.

I bet the process by which teams get compensated for losing players in free agency will likely remain in some form. I wouldn't be surprised at all if loss of a draft pick by the signing team goes away though.

Counterpoint: Some people are probably over-rating what one year of Joe Ryan is worth and the number of teams that it would really make sense to acquire him

100+ is average or better. Clemens, Bell, and Lee were above 100 and therefore above average offensively

I don't agree with including Caratini's buyout in this spreadsheet. I understand that if it happens it will be a fiscal year 2027 expense but, a) He could get traded b) while it seems likely that the buyout will happen, we don't know that yet.

I don't think his $6M is moving the needle of budget cutting, but if you took on Merrill Kelly's underwater contract (1/20M remaining), they might listen. Or make Tom Pohlad swallow real hard and take on that Burnes contract. There's some upside with that at least, but about 4/130 remaining.

That feels like an argument for when a player has multiple years of control left. We’re kind of down to three options (trade him in the offseason, trade him at the deadline, and let him walk) and even though I agree with you that his trade value isn’t as high as it may have been before, what we’d get for him now is almost certainly more than what a team would pay for 2 months of Joe Ryan at the trade deadline. I’m not antsy to trade Joe Ryan this offseason, but it seems to me like it’s probably a good (and tough) choice. I’m also not opposed to keeping him, giving him the QO after 2027 and getting a draft pick, but that assumes that there will be a QO type system in place. And I would want that strategy to be part of a larger plan to not have so many of our SP have their contracts expiring after next season.

I view including Caratini in this as a positive for the Twins. Swapping Catchers give the Twins the slightly better player (IMO) and gives us a guy who is signed through 2028, which feels like it works with the Lackey timeline.

The Mets have Francisco Alvarez as their primary catcher, under team control for 3 more years Joe Ryan and Victor Caratini for Luis Torrens and Jonathan Santucci (SP - Mets #2 prospect but not in the top 100)

What does Michael Busch give us that 2026 Kody Clemens didn't provide? I'd rather have Luis Torrens from the Mets than Busch from the Cubs.... assuming Jeffers isn't back