I'm struggling with the idea of signing a mid-rotation starter. At first blush it sounds logical, based on what has happened this year and the depth that was required, but in practice it squeezes the roster/organization in ways that probably don't make sense. If I'm the GM I'd prepare for a few injuries, but preparing for extreme injury issues might start to do more harm than good.
In my mind it's sort of like QBs in the NFL. Does it make sense to have an extremely capable backup QB? In a vacuum, yes. If your star QB gets injured, you don't want your season to completely tank. But that backup might cost $10M and in your ideal world he sits on the bench all year. And does a borderline starting caliber QB even WANT to sign up to be the backup for Jalen Hurts (for example)?
And actually, history is littered with examples of a star player getting injured and it paving the way for unbelievable success.
Matt Cassell getting injured and having to rely on late round pick Tom Brady.
David Robinson getting injured leading to the #1 overall pick and getting Tim Duncan
Now, it's different in baseball, because we're talking about a group of players, but let's play this forward with the 2027 Twins starters
Barring a trade these guys are locks:
Pablo Lopez
Joe Ryan
Taj Bradley
So, you have two core spots available and here are the guys you have access to:
Bailey Ober
Zebby Matthews
Connor Prielipp
Dean Kremer
Mick Abel
Mike Paredes
Kendry Rojas
Some of those are easy. I agree that Ober will likely get non-tendered. Paredes to AAA as depth. Rojas either to the bullpen or AAA as depth.
But were still left with 4 guys for 2 spots. And if you sign a mid-rotation starter, that's 4 guys for 1 spot and to be honest, I think it would be Kremer. So now you've got Zebby, Prielipp, and Abel ALL at AAA?
It sounds fun to have that much depth, but to me it doesn't make sense. It's the equivalent of spending $20M on a backup QB that you hope to never use.
So, this my long way of saying, spend money on 1B. Heck... SPLURGE on 1B. Because there's no reason to spend another dime on starting pitching depth.