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amjgt

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Everything posted by amjgt

  1. It was Bailey Ober at +0.1 offensive fWAR that tripped me up. Two plate appearances. One hit... 0.1 fWAR
  2. Doesn’t REALLY change my point. It just doesn’t line up exactly at $6M like I thought it did. To your point earlier, it actually moves the real value of $/WAR down
  3. I went back and looked. That WAS just hitters. I think I just got unlucky by noticing a pitcher in the hitter stats
  4. I’m 100% sure I saw a pitcher on the last page before the 0.0 group, because I was specifically worried about this. However, I acknowledge that it’s possible that I saw a pitcher that managed to accumulate a slightly positive WAR from the plate.
  5. This year players accumulated a little more than 650 positive fWAR. The actual number was 650, but I pulled that on Friday night, so it went up a little from there
  6. Good questions... There are two ways to project the AAV. 1) Future protected WAR. A perfectly good way to do it and what the $8M number is based on (the fangraphs article). 2) Previous actual WAR. The problem with #1, from a fan's point of view, is that projecting WAR is done differently by everyone. Of course that's how TEAMS should think of it but they probably all do it differently. ZiPS does it different that Steamer who does it differently than The Bat, and so on They all have their own assumptions. So, #1 is a complicated way to do it and requires a TON of assumptions. And where it fails here, is that most people in casual discussion, apply #1 like its as simple as #2. It's a very complex calculation that's being applied very non-critically. So, my goal here was to see if there was a much simpler correlation. People want to apply a simple formula so let's see if we can give them one. As it turns out, I believe $6M for the average WAR of their previous two seasons is a pretty good rule of thumb. It doesn't require aging curves, projected WAR, complex algorithms, etc.... It just looks at a) what teams are actually paying for FA, and confirmed with b) what the actual league-wide value of 1.0 WAR is ($4B/650) over the course of a season.
  7. What is a free agent worth? $8M AAV per WAR. That's what they all tell me. It never felt right because it never seems to work out that way, ESPECIALLY for the top end of the FA market. It is based on this article ( https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cost-of-a-win-in-free-agency-in-2020/ ) as well as an older article that he reference a couple times There are two problems here. 1) He is relying on future WAR projections, attempting to quantify the Qualifying Offer silliness (not his silliness... the system's silliness), as well as some other assumptions. All of these things might seem logical on their own but once you roll them all together things get messy and lack real world context. 2) That's not how people are using his work. They are looking at past WAR and saying "based on his 2.3 WAR average the last two seasons he's worth 20M in free agency." -- Spolier Alert: 2.3 WAR players are lucky to get half of that in free agency --. Even for the people that might claim that they are actually saying that player provided 20M in VALUE .... That's not true either. In 2021 MLB payrolls were about $4 Billion and Players provided about 650 positive WAR. So really in that context a "WAR" is worth $6M. ($4B/650), but that's not really what I'm after here. I'm after what is actually happening in free agency and how it correlates to past performance. Here it is. I looked at the top 20 free agents (according to MLB Trade Rumors) from two recent offseasons, looked at their free agent contract AAV, then looked up their WAR from the previous three seasons (fWAR in this case). I looked at it two similar ways. First was just their WAR from the season before free agency, and second I looked at it based on the average of their previous two seasons. Key points: The average is right around $6.0M/WAR (There's that number again) Almost nobody gets 8.0/WAR. If they do it's usually one of two special circumstances. a) They're a RP, or b) they missed a bunch of time which suppressed their WAR in a given season The top end free agents definitely don't get $8/WAR. They are more around $5/WAR Conclusion: We can project future value, make assumptions, and try to account for market factors all we want, but at the end of the day, the numbers are the numbers. We have baseball-wide economics telling us that the value of 1.0WAR is about $6M ($4B/650WAR) and we have front offices signing free agents at about $6M per WAR from previous seasons. Maybe the number we should start using for projecting free agent AAV is $6M, not $8M
  8. Misleading how? The point of using the average is that over time the teams offensive results should bell curve around that average. So far, they haven't. If anything that says the Twins have gotten unlucky with their offensive output distribution, not the point you tried to make, which was that the Twins are actually worse than their scoring average
  9. Thanks for the reply, Brock
  10. I agree with your thesis of "let's call up Alex," but I don't think the covid list is forced 10-day IL stay. It has to do with consecutive days testing negative, right?
  11. A team of all Astudios would be tough to watch and a team of all Keplers would be tough to watch, but a team comprised of a mix of Keplers and Astudios? Appointment viewing.
  12. Since we're giving opinions here, my personal opinion is that I liked it better before the Twins Daily Articles got their own forum. I understand why it was done, but I feel like it has lessened potential traffic and interaction for both TD Official Writers as well as regular posters. I don't feel like there are SO many official articles that it would "bog down" the regular forum. I liked having a mix of official stuff and silly/user generated content. Both are awesome in their own ways and having them in the same place showed that off. But... that's just my opinion.
  13. That would actually be a savage bargaining chip.... "Oh Bally Sports North, you're having problems with your streaming negotiations? Well we're going to just play day games until you figure it out. Talk soon!"
  14. I'll grant you that this season seems worse than normal. But this happens every year.
  15. I came here to rant but I didn't know there was going to be a DIFFERENT rant. Geez. OK. The schedule. I know this is like point #15000 of why baseball is killing itself. But these early season start times are just so stupid. In the entire first 4 weeks of the season we have 2.... TWO (!) games that start at 6pm or 7pm and one of them was on a Saturday when it doesn't matter. Every other sport relies on the rhythm of it's schedule. Baseball seem to downright relish the randomness of its first month... just when fans should be getting into the rhythm of the season. I know. I know. We can cite a couple reasons... cold weather.... opening day.... blah blah blah. It's idiotic. Your sport is starving for eyeballs and you can't figure out a way to get your sport on TV at times when the most people can watch it? Get a clue, baseball. Figure it out.
  16. Unfortunately, many of the Twins who did get vaccinated last Friday might not have had time to build up their initial immunity before being exposed, either by Simmons, or by whoever infected Simmons. Definitely in for a few days of holding our collective breath.
  17. He’s terrible in his career against Eovaldi. He was never playing both halves of the Doubleheader anyway
  18. Twins fans: Man these guys are terrible from the 8th inning on Twins: oh man, have we got a solution for you
  19. I know that was the main reason. Most people know that was the main reason, but it was framed as something else. I just think that that framing will make it difficult to not respect a fallen officer the next time it happens. After all, they rely on law enforcement officers for stadium security.
  20. This is a difficult precedent to come back from. That doesn’t mean it’s a bad precedent, but it definitely is one. It’s nearly impossible for the Twins to play a baseball game the day after the next time a MN law enforcement officer gets killed in the line of duty. Not because those two events are similar, but because they are inherently linked. And maybe they shouldn’t play in that case, but as a poster said above, you can’t cancel a game every time there’s an injustice or tragedy (edited to add: or maybe you can... we’ve just had a relative lot recently) and who becomes the arbiter of that.
  21. When I hear that, all I can think is... "we were hoping things would cool down, but they didn't." If at 8am, after consulting literally nobody the Twins would have said "out of respect for the tragic events.... the game is postponed." And they could've told anyone with a problem with that to pound sand. THAT would have been a statement.
  22. I don't understand the "as early as possible" part of your post. If they did it for the reason they said, then what changed between 7am and 1:30pm? Don't get me wrong, I support the postponement. I just think they really screwed up by waiting until the last minute, when most of the fans were already there, ready to see a baseball game.
  23. Sorry if this has been talked about, but there's a little too much to sift through for a simple question. Does anyone know/remember if Colomé / The Twins were holding Wong on 1st?
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