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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I think Emma next month would be too slow even. I'd flip Jenkins and Rodriguez, but I'm not intoxicated on Jenkins hype.
  2. bean5302
    Emma's expected outcomes are a bit better looking than Jenkins, it's not just the raw production. Walker Jenkins' expected outcomes in AAA are well below average. Jenkins' bat has been a ground ball and pop up machine for most of the year, and despite the narrative that he's heated up recently, Jenkins is actually performing about the same overall since the All Star Break in terms of results, even with the outstanding past few games. If Jenkins can put together another 5-10 games with these kind of results, you can't ignore it.
  3. bean5302
    He met the 90 days rule in all of his previous seasons.
  4. bean5302
    Everybody likes to be lucky, but regression to the mean suggests at some point or another, the luck will run out and Gomez will blow 4 saves in a row or something.
  5. bean5302
    The change in his splitter rate is consistent with other patches with Baltimore, but the abandoning of the sinker is new. The sinker and 4 seamer have been pretty similar in terms of actual results produced, but Stuff+ hates the sinker and is pretty neutral on his 4 seamer. FWIW, Kremer's xFIP is the same over his past 2 starts with the Twins as it is on the season so it's hard to say luck isn't involved in the extremely small sample size "unlocking."
  6. bean5302
    I would hope the Twins give him a long enough opportunity. A couple hundred plate appearances straight before they make that call. The Twins have been generous with with some players and impatient with others. Roster construction should allow for Rodriguez to get the opportunity, but if his stat line looks bad enough, it's going to be the strikeouts. .150/.250/.300 OPS .500 10% BB, 50% K is anybody worried if this is Emma after 100-200 PA? I'm not, and I don't see the risk. .200/.310/.390 OPS .700 12% BB, 35% K this is probably a reasonable expectation for him, and I can't see the Twins cutting bait on him if he does this since he can fill in at Center Field. .220/.350/.440 OPS .780 14% BB, 30% K this is what I feel is probably a ceiling. Obviously, he's more than safe if he does this.
  7. bean5302
    Activated 3/9/26 60-Day IL 5/6/26 (retroactive) Activated 7/28/26 If we go by the activated dates, he hits 90 days on August 29th. 5/6 - 3/9 = 58 days 8/29 - 7/28 = 32 days (90 total) This is the 40 man roster. It's not connected to MiLB games, but even if it was the first first Twins game 3/26 (subtract 17 days), Emma would hit the 90 days of active roster time on 9/13. Emma has to go back on the 60-day IL before 8/29 and stay there the rest of the year if he's going to get a 4th option year.
  8. bean5302
    Pretty clear to me this front office doesn't understand the concept of roster management. Zoll, if he's still here (hope not) next year will discover in Spring Training that Emma has no options and no good place on the roster with the other the 7 lefties he'll have signed who could technically stand in LF/RF or 1B.
  9. bean5302
    I've been over the topic a few times and my feelings about how players are viewed after their initial team gives up on them. It certainly feels like the Twins are done with Wallner, and Matt has talked about that in a Pioneer Press article recently. Also, Wallner has 1,107 plate appearances at the MLB level including 135 with putrid results (and expected results) this year. Rooker had 209 total plate appearances including only 30 plate appearances where he struggled in early April, 2021. After that small rough patch, his results were solid enough for 183 with excellent expected metrics and the Twins still closed the book. Wallner's last results at MLB were terrible and expected to be terrible. He's ending his 28 season and has over 1,000 plate appearances of experience at MLB. Rooker's last actual results in a Twins uniform were solid and the expected results were great. He was ending his age 26 season and only had 200 plate appearances at the MLB level. I don't see them as particularly comparable except the concern the Twins might be overlooking something. It's the front office's job to evaluate talent and they're paid millions of dollars more than you or I are paid to do it.
  10. bean5302
    Tait was struggling hard at the plate coming into the All Star break and he was very rough defensively. Occasionally putting a mistake meatball into the seats was more than offset by rough results in pretty much every other area of the game. From 8/9 - Tait had opponents steal SIX bases on him without catching a single one. He's seen 123 stolen bases against him this year. Other teams see him as an automatic to run on. SB Cepeda 2 (10, 2nd base off Lares/Tait, 3rd base off Lares/Tait); Hartshorn (6, 2nd base off Lares/Tait); Lumpuy 2 (2, 3rd base off Lares/Tait, 2nd base off Becerra/Tait); Hallquist (11, 2nd base off Lares/Tait). He's substantially better results at the plate over the past 20 games since the All Star Break. Not sure about how the peripherals have looked, but he's got 4 errors in the past 7 games he's played C.
  11. bean5302
    We're not out of it, but we're now 3rd in the division and falling against the White Sox and Tigers, who've worked their way back into contention.
  12. bean5302
    Emma should get the call. He's been better than Jenkins in AAA, he's out of options and the Twins need to see how he looks in MLB so they can have an offseason strategy.
  13. bean5302
    Rooker was holding his own with good expected metrics when the Twins gave up on him. He wasn't "bad" so I'm not exactly sure how to look at that. Rooker was given a very, very short leash in April, 2021. His demotion came after 8 games, and he was recalled on 7/23/21. After the recall, Rooker was .219/.317/.425 wRC+ 106, wOBA .324, xwOBA .361 over 183 PA. That's the last Rooker ever saw action in Minnesota. Falvey bailed on Rooker in favor of Kyle Garlick. It was asinine IMHO. If the Twins front office continues to toss players who are raking by expected metrics, the Twins are going nowhere regardless.
  14. bean5302
    If he's really bad, you DFA him and he passes through waivers or you move on if somebody claims him. He wasn't good enough to make the roster for 8 years in the system at that point. I'm not too concerned.
  15. bean5302
    If the Twins pitch Prielipp every 5 starts (they haven't been doing that), and he remains healthy, he'd get 8 more starts. I don't think it's reasonable to assume he'd average more than 5.5 innings per start, so that'd place him in the 40-44 more innings range. I don't understand the max of 100 innings or where it comes from. I don't see strong indications the Twins have an active plan in place to limit Prielipp's innings. There does seem to be a reduction in pitch count recently, but Prielipp hasn't failed to go 5.0+ innings since June 7th.
  16. bean5302
    He has a mutual option. Either Ryan or the Twins can opt out. Ryan is 100% going to opt out after the Skubal decision... unless he continues to have a terrible 2nd half.
  17. bean5302
    I feel like people are confusing playing poorly while hurt with streaky. If Royce Lewis' name was Alex Kirilloff, 90% of this site would be proclaiming him the de-facto MVP for the next 12 years straight already. The last 12 games would be the baseline for Lewis' performance, and any time Lewis didn't have a game with an OPS of at least 1.000 it's because he was hurt that day.
  18. bean5302
    The Twins were willing to move Kaelen Culpepper as part of a trade for Soriano. Emmanuel Rodriguez wasn't connected to any trades probably because his value has been extinguished and he can no longer be the big piece in any significant move. Is it really a problem Emma is out of options? While this site, and some analysts, have pushed Emma as a knocking at the door kind of player for years now, the Twins have passed him over for any number of outfield options for the past couple of years. The team clearly does not believe in him, and other teams clearly don't value him highly, either. If Emma is the 4th outfielder coming out of camp 2027, is it really a big deal?
  19. bean5302
    Not sure how you forgot about the Skubal ruling? The fair market value clause for final year of arbitration had been there since the start of the current CBA, but I don't know as it had ever been used. Skubal decided to push that and the arbiter agreed. Players in their final year of arbitration should be compared to fair market value as a free agent. Skubal 2025 $10.5MM. Estimate based on the old methodology $15MM-ish (50% increase). Tigers figure $19MM. Skubal's ask $32MM. There is no way in hell the MLBPA doesn't solidify the fair market value process in the next CBA.
  20. bean5302
    100%
  21. bean5302
    Nothing to do with first vs. second half. Lewis came up and was immediately effective after his recall on 6/6. 6/6-7/12 = .266/.328/.500 OPS .828 wRC+ 129, 8.8% BB, 23.4% K 7/17-8/10 = .293/.359/.500 OPS .859 wRC+ 136, 8.7% BB, 21.7% K June = .279/.330/.512 OPS .842 wRC+ 132. 7.4% BB, 22.3% K, .311 BABIP July = .217/.313/.410 OPS .743 wRC+ 99, 12.5% BB, 20.8% K, .246 BABIP August = .405/.436/.676 OPS 1.112 wRC+ 213, 2.6% BB, 28.2% K, .542 BABIP He's been pretty consistently hitting balls well and producing.
  22. bean5302
    Joe Ryan probably has minimal trade value this offseason. I don't think he's worth moving. There has to be an assumption his final arb contract is near $20MM so his trade value is going to be pretty low.
  23. bean5302
    Why don't we just DFA and release Buxton so we can clear some space for Jenkins?
  24. bean5302
    Lackey and Tinney still adjusting to Ft. Myers pitching. Not sure those A ball pitchers know what a strike zone looks like.
  25. bean5302
    The .453 BABIP doesn't seem sustainable. The sketchy nature of batted ball data reported in AA shows a near 40% line drive rate which says the expected BABIP should be really high, but the 25% pop up rate doesn't. Plenty of orange flags, but fun to see the eye popping production.
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