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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Okay... didn't know we were changing the subject.
  2. bean5302
    Yeah, he really is on his last legitimate chance he can generate on his own. After this point, it's all luck if he can't stick. If he gets demoted for not being able to hit, I think another organization will be Roden's only shot. He'll be behind Wallner on the depth charts, and Wallner hasn't gotten a chance after months of raking. It's pretty clear Wallner is viewed as MiLB roster filler at this point, and the Twins do not believe he can adjust to MLB pitchers being able to hit spots on the inside of the plate.
  3. bean5302
    Caught fly balls more than 5 feet away from where he was standing when they got launched? Roden's far from a can't miss prospect, but he's not a Fedko, either. Viewing Roden, he's never had a hiccup, never performed under a wRC+ 133 at any level of the minors. The Blue Jays treated him mostly like a toss in for Varland. I think his performance at the plate probably has Larnach's current production as an absolute ceiling, but Roden may be able to cover CF. Honestly, the question here isn't Roden replacing Larnach. It's a question of can Roden play LF and hit well enough to be an every day 2.0 WAR kind of player? Fedko needed to rake out of the gate. Not struggle to make contact with every pitch you see. Fedko's swinging strike rate was 20.5%. His swing rate outside the zone was 40.5%. That's... Listen. Miguel Sano's swinging strike rate was 16.0% over his career and never topped 19.1% in any full season. Swinging strike rate over 15.0% is practically unplayable, Combine that with his O-swing rate of 40% (MLB average is like 28%) and that is really, really, really bad.
  4. bean5302
    Well, in some cases, just a guy you can put on the bench and not play unless you have to.
  5. bean5302
    Seems like the Twins frequently are by some analysts, yet the Twins rarely actually produce anything of value.
  6. bean5302
    I guess I don't think the Twins typically have 3 fide Cy Young winners/candidates in the rotation, arguably the best farm system in baseball and a $300MM payroll. It's easy to use this approach when you have unlimited resources.
  7. bean5302
    He's had one UCL injury. He had a failed first TJ surgery which required an internal brace follow up. He's only had one significant injury in his career. Surgical intervention is not 100% successful, and Prielipp just happened to get the short end of the stick. He's not Brock Stewart or Matt Canterino or Josh Winder. Drew MacPhail in 2025 https://www.mlb.com/news/connor-prielipp-impressing-at-double-a-after-dealing-with-injuries
  8. bean5302
    I believe what you're saying is true, but also the desperation and backfill has impacted things, too.
  9. bean5302
    I think it's a factor of desperation. Falzoll didn't address the bullpen, Festa and Lopez are out, SWR flopped, and the Twins have been forced to reach into the minors hard, the waiver wire, anything and everything to get innings that don't wipe the team's chances of winning. That has led to a vacuum at AAA -> AA -> A+ where the backfill has resulted in early promotions and guys who aren't ready. Plus a lot of guys in the minors returning from injury.
  10. bean5302
    Prielipp should not be managed via a seasonal innings cap if he's healthy. He's not going to get to 150 innings this year, and if the Twins are capping him lower than that, they're just being paranoid. While Prielipp's "innings pitched in competitive game settings" has been low, it's not like he's been laying on a sofa waiting for his arm to heal before he can throw the ball. There is evidence 4+ days of rest for starters is critical, and there's a 22% improvement in 5 days rest for arm injuries according to Gemini in some quick searching I did. There is no statistical improvement documented for more than 5 days rest. There is evidence going over 100 pitches in a game increases injury risk. There is evidence pitching more innings (over 6) in a single game increases injury risk (resting in the dugout and needing to warm back up impacts, etc). There is evidence less than 5 days of rest between starts increases injury risk. There is zero evidence suggesting a seasonal innings limit has any impact on injury risk.
  11. bean5302
    Better case to platoon Bell for a different team since he can't hit lefties, even if he has the platoon advantage from being able to stand in the right handed batters box and he's been league average at the plate for years. He's been bad against lefties for years now. A blip this year doesn't erase who he is to me.
  12. bean5302
    I don't think anybody knows how much of the decision making process is Falvey. Same issue as when Thad Levine was here. Regardless, arguing Zoll needed more time to figure out how to be a GM falls on deaf ears over here. If Zoll didn't need more time, he still did everything just like how the team has been run under Falvey so he's incompetent as a GM. If Zoll did need more time, he was incompetent as a baseline to start with because he'd already had years in the role.
  13. bean5302
    If athleticism, strength and work ethic was all that was important for players, we wouldn't see 95% of draft picks wash out without making an impact at the MLB level.
  14. bean5302
    Zoll was promoted to the GM role in 2024. He was the director of MiLB ops in 2018-2019, promoted to assistant GM in 2020 and full GM in 2024. Falvey was told he was going to be fired in mid-January. Zoll would have known in mid-January he would take over as GM. That's 2.5 months to change directions. The Twins didn't have 40 guys with full no trade clauses or something. Need capacity? Trade Lopez. Need to enhance the MLB roster to be competitive, trade MiLB talent. Zoll did nothing. He had more than enough time to fix the bullpen.
  15. bean5302
    Tough to place faith in Acton based on his mediocre/poor results in AAA through age 27 and his whopping 13.1 innings pitched in MLB. Sands should be a solid relief pitcher when he returns, fingers crossed his velo looks okay.
  16. bean5302
    I consider Nance to be middle innings reliever. I wouldn't trust him pitching in higher leverage situations near the end of the game in a good bullpen, but he's kind of cleaned up his history of actual results being worse than expected the last couple years. Basically, I like him because he clearly belongs in MLB.
  17. bean5302
    I think he was promoted to AA because High-A hitters weren't providing the kind of feedback Quick needed; they weren't selective enough. He needs to know where he needs to improve.
  18. bean5302
    Maybe. I think it depends on how adamant the owners are about getting a hard salary cap. With a hard cap, making the wrong moves just before a CBA could be catastrophic like it was for the Minnesota Wild in the NHL. I can't gauge how resolute owners are on the hard cap.
  19. bean5302
    Probably in 15ft increments. 90 + 15 = 105, then 120 is probably the final length for long toss.
  20. bean5302
    This is Emma's third option year, not his second. He burned options in 2024, 2025 and now 2026. That said, I doubt he'll spend 90 days active this year so the Twins will likely get a 4th option year.
  21. bean5302
    Miller was at about +55 last year when he was traded. He's probably +40ish now. He'd be expensive, but he's not Paul Skenes expensive or something.
  22. bean5302
    I think that was Jeffers' ask last year. 3-4yrs at $12-15MM AAV. Something like that ballpark. I don't think he does that now on the heels of by far the best year of his career. He's not going to get much less than that, but he could explore potentially much more. Even if Jeffers tails off substantially, barring serious injury, what's the legit worst case scenario? 2-3 years at similar AAV.
  23. bean5302
    There are a ton of teams on the bubble, and plenty of guys who will be available. The Padres are apparently even open about Mason Miller.
  24. bean5302
    Elite college draft prospects typically show up in MLB in 1-2 years. There have been MLB prospects who make it to MLB in just a few weeks in recent years. Can't really compare Vahn to Mauer. Mauer was drafted out of high school. Nolan Schanuel didn't spend even a single full season in the minors. He was in MLB the same year he was drafted in 2024.
  25. bean5302
    1) Trade him. 2) Don't trade him. Those are the 2 legitimate deadline options the Twins have. The rest is just general planning unrelated to the deadline. If we need to expand out options to get to 4 items: 1) Trade him for MLB ready prospects in areas of immediate need. 2) Trade him for MLB players in a direct MLB/MLB swap from an area of surplus from a contender. 3) Trade him for high ceiling, high risk players. 4) Don't trade him. If we want to expand out to 4 unique options, and we've got to get silly here. 1) Trade him 2) Keep him on the 26 man roster. 3) Option him to AAA (yes, he'll decline the option, it was silly enough as-is...) 4) DFA him
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