Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

bean5302

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    6,499

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    35

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Fangraphs talks about WAR and the limitations of player "Value" or how basing contracts on WAR is fraught with problems. i.e. Individual contributions and value depends largely on a team's performance as a whole. 1 WAR to a team which wins 88 games is worth dramatically more than 1 WAR is worth to a team which wins 65 games. That's because extra revenue generation from playoffs is enormous. The impact to fan attendance and popularity between a 65 win and 66 win team is non-existent. If Falvey is trying to maximize lifetime WAR / value per dollar, then he's failing to grasp the inherent value of a competitive window. I do believe Falvey leans heavily towards the lifetime WAR per dollar spent metric. I also believe the Pohlads, as owners, tend to view the team in this manner as well because their position always seems closely tied to over .500 is the goal. Winning the division is the reach goal.
  2. bean5302
    It remains to be seen how Louie Varland will age. There are plenty of examples of short career starters who converted to relievers who flame out quickly. Tyler Duffey is a good one. I think Duffey is especially valuable as an example because it took a couple years to really start seeing value as a reliever once he converted. Jax took a couple years to become a dominant force as well, even if he was a solid reliever the year after his conversion. In the offseason after 2021, Falvey blew up the bullpen and backfilled innings with converted starters Jax, Duran, and to a lesser extent, Cole Sands. Duran is viewed as a major success; however, it was never explored whether or not he could handle a starter's workload. If Duran was deployed as a starter, he could potentially have been a Cy Young candidate. Certainly, Duran's production as a closer has been great. I'm still not sure it was a solution which worked out, but sacrificed something so much bigger. We'll see what happens in a vacuum. Roden could take a leap forward this coming season which would easily make the trade worthwhile for the Twins. Rojas had a very disappointing debut in St. Paul so that'll have to be watched.
  3. bean5302
    Berrios, Buxton, and Lewis have all been vocally unhappy with the front office. Buxton even filed a grievance against the Twins in 2018, before he was angry again with them in 2021 before the trade deadline. Falvey's front office has been linked to the "championship belt" awarded to the front office which is most successful at surpressing player salaries in arbitration. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/03/mlb-awards-championship-belt-during-arbitration-symposium.html https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/888513/2019/03/29/ready-to-strike-tomorrow-how-one-20-trinket-captures-the-strife-within-a-10-billion-industry/ Time and time again we see arbitration avoided with salary values well under projected for this club. I don't think that just happens out of the blue. There are business reasons to do it, but a one size fits all approach isn't appropriate in my mind anyway.
  4. bean5302
    Falvey's history is filled with the beat down of young players, and ruining relationships with his future stars. I mean, it's kind of a pattern. I'm not sure what he actually does well as the head of baseball operations.
  5. bean5302
    So it's okay for you to presume there will be a benefit? I don't buy the Twins need a Kyle Farmer, Carlos Santana, Josh Bell, Joey Gallo type of a guy on the roster every year to help motivate the mostly veteran players on the 26 man roster.
  6. bean5302
    Arm overuse, intense focus on velocity, less cross training. Even high school kids are seeing UCL replacement surgery happening.
  7. bean5302
    Yeah, it's a claim and stash scenario.
  8. bean5302
    Ober and SWR get the phone slammed down if they're going to be the headliner. I'm not sure how well the Cubs value various Twins players, but they're going to be wanting a premium value player back.
  9. bean5302
    I don't know what source you're using, and I don't think you're using "scouting grade" data correctly. If Fedko and Rosario were excellent depth for MLB teams, they'd have been selected in Rule 5. They weren't. The rest of the league has spoken pretty strongly on that. Brandon Winokur was a mid-teens org level prospect (figure #300-500 overall in MLB) to start last year and he was barely able to hold his own in the low minors. He's got athleticism going for him and he's got some real ceiling. He'll be in his age 21 season and should be repeating High-A this year. There are a ton of those types of prospects in MLB. Quentin Young? A mid 2nd round pick in a weak draft who K'd 41% of the time in A-Ball? It was only 22 PA, and he would have probably been better off starting in Rookie Ball, but he was clearly outmatched in Ft Myers. Hopefully it was just a pressure thing and he's able to adjust and catch up this year. I couldn't find much corroboration to support your seemingly bullish positions on Twins prospects.
  10. bean5302
    No need to rush him at all. His performance and poise should dictate how fast he moves up the ladder in the system. His build up will probably limit him to 100 IP this year, similar to what we saw with Prielipp, I'm guessing.
  11. bean5302
    I don't think there are any 2026 rankings for the Twins out there yet. Prospects1500 came out with their 2025 list for the Twins in January last year, but I don't know how they roll those out. They've got like 3-4 teams done so far. MLB hasn't updated yet. Fangraphs has only 8 of 32 teams in their 2026 report right now.
  12. bean5302
    Joe Pohlad got probably got canned to deflect fan rage and probably as part of a negotiation with new minority owners as it's clear to everybody he's a non-starter when it comes to fan engagement. Dave St. Peter was given goals in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024 to improve attendance before he was finally held non-accountable (still is constantly involved as an "advisor" from my understanding). I do not see any potential improvement in attendance without a World Series berth, though I would really love it to happen. The fans hate the Pohlads and they're actively taking it out on ownership. Baseball is dying in Minnesota. It's eye-opening attending a Minnesota United games and see how diverse and excited the fans are vs. a Twins game.
  13. bean5302
    Walker Jenkins is a legitimate high end prospect today. Not mid year last year or the beginning of last year. After Jenkins, there is a dramatic fall off to Culpepper, Tait, Emma types who are all in the 50-100+ prospect ranges. They're Tier 2 prospects right now. Every team in baseball has 10 Winokurs. Fedko and Rosario are non-prospects. They were left unprotected and ignored by 29 other teams in baseball.
  14. bean5302
    I get the impression Josh Bell is just a guy. He's a league average hitter at the tail end of his career. I don't know as he brings anything more than a guy like Trevor Larnach would bring in terms of leadership. Having a replacement level veteran who is in the twighlight of their career as a revolving door "leader" doesn't seem like a valuable thing to me.
  15. bean5302
    Has to have plate appearances with guys on base to hit home runs with guys on base... His OPS was higher with runners on than bases empty last year. His BB rate was higher with runners on and RISP. His K rate was lowest with RISP. Pitchers did their best to pitch around Wallner because the rest of the lineup was terrible.
  16. bean5302
    Because the stadium is full, fans are having fun, the music selection and fan interaction is superior. It all caters to energy. Even the walk up music players select is upbeat, fun and engaging. The number one bad thing for attending games? Empty seats.
  17. bean5302
    Reading through the actual article makes this topic seem awfully sensationalized. As noted above, the Twins rarely appear on the lists. The Twins aren't featured in the images for the best farm system, drafting success, international signings or a number of other images. Sometimes they get a last place "also mentioned" kind of status. The Twins have a system propped up by a couple players. The system is thin at the top right now, though it can easily change depending on the fortunes of various prospects. I think the system has a lot of middle tier to notable lower tier talent.
  18. bean5302
    The Twins could have gotten something valuable back, but we'd be paying $20MM per year instead of $10MM.
  19. bean5302
    Contracts for the 2027 season would be void. Deferred money owed or earned from previous seasons (like signing bonuses, deferred salaries from 2026 or earlier, etc) would still be paid. Your assertion about contract length is correct. Contracts end in seasons/calendar years, not service years. Joe Ryan's value is going to utterly crater this year under all circumstances. Right now, he's got a surplus value of like 53MM according to BTV. But that's based o production of like $65MM of production value (like 4 WAR per year) with $13MM of salary to come. Next year, even if he's awesome by his own standards, he'll be worth less than half of that because his annual salary will be higher, and his control will be halved.
  20. bean5302
    Castro is poor defensively at most positions. He's got the physical tools to be solid, but IMHO, he's ill suited to a utility role. His bat was significantly below average last year, and as noted in the article, he was so poor Chicago left him flat off the roster for the playoffs. I certainly wouldn't put it past Falvey to sign him because of Falvey's penchant for signing every cheap free agent he can get his hands on, but Castro doesn't fill a need for the Twins right now. The time to sign him was before bringing in a cluster of low ceiling depth guys.
  21. bean5302
    Status quo is all I see with this ownership group. Same exact plan as always. Mulligan, Mulligan, Mulligan, Do Over, Mulligan. The Twins have basically 4 players and 22 question marks. This is how the Colorado Rockies operate, except Rockies games are fun to attend. Thinking a .500 season will get fans interested is incomprehensible to me.
  22. bean5302
    I'm not concerned about the power or HR rate all. He's 18. The walk vs. K rate is a bit concerning, but if there wasn't at least one significant concern area, Tait would be a top 10 MLB prospect right now and Duran wouldn't have come close to getting him. A huge shift in his defensive metrics with the Twins, dropping from 32% to 9% caught stealing, but with a dramatic improvement in the passed ball rate from 1 every 47 innings to 1 every 132 innings hints the Twins may instilling the organizational philosophy of who cares if you automatically turn a single or walk into a triple? It'll be interesting to watch Taits development this coming year. Anybody thinking there's a chance of seeing Tait prior to 2028 aren't being rational in my opinion. Tait is far from ready with plenty of work to do behind the dish and at the plate. If Tait looked near MLB ready at age 18 as a catcher, he'd be the #1 prospect in baseball, no question. Seeing him debut at 19 or 20 as a catcher would be nuts.
  23. bean5302
    Semantics aside, it's clear the Twins' catcher development system is barren. There's nobody in the system who could be expected to potentially fill a starting catcher role (or backup) role within reasonable reach of the MLB club in the next two years and Jeffers is gone at the end of the year. Cardenas is a long shot, at best, despite surface level output in AAA which would suggest there is something potentially there. Tons of weak contact despite being selective (passive) at the plate means he's likely to get eaten up by MLB pitchers, and though he showed pop, his max EV suggests below average raw power. Cosetti took a big leap forward at the plate last year, but at age 25 in his second trip through AA and nearly 1500 plate appearances in MiLB since being drafted out of college, it's likely all polish, and the 40% swing rate won't play at MLB just like the near 30% pop up rate suggests whiffs will skyrocket against better pitches. A total inability to control the run game remains, but at least he stopped letting balls fly past his glove to the backstop so regularly. Still, he projects as MiLB roster filler. The rest of the high minors guys aren't worth mentioning.
  24. bean5302
    The Twins desperately need a second catcher if they're trying to compete. Desperately. Falvey can't help himself, though. The trade was utterly stupid. The Twins had a legitimate, major need they potentially addressed. A need which was created by Falvey's incompetence in the first place. Instead of continuing to try to correct his mistakes, he made another. If Falvey really wanted Caraballo, it's not like he couldn't have packed something up and swung a deal for him separately.
  25. bean5302
    I've seen this sentiment before. The part I don't like is why was a demonstratably incompetent front office allowed to come up with a new strategy? Falvey hired the people he later scapegoated. He changed strategies at the plate, in the field, in negotiations. Pretty much everywhere due to failures in performance. The only thing which has been steady in this organization since 2017 is... Falvey being wrong. Biggest problem for me with the ownership of this franchise has been the lack of accountability for the heads of the program.
×
×
  • Create New...