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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Because the stadium is full, fans are having fun, the music selection and fan interaction is superior. It all caters to energy. Even the walk up music players select is upbeat, fun and engaging. The number one bad thing for attending games? Empty seats.
  2. bean5302
    Reading through the actual article makes this topic seem awfully sensationalized. As noted above, the Twins rarely appear on the lists. The Twins aren't featured in the images for the best farm system, drafting success, international signings or a number of other images. Sometimes they get a last place "also mentioned" kind of status. The Twins have a system propped up by a couple players. The system is thin at the top right now, though it can easily change depending on the fortunes of various prospects. I think the system has a lot of middle tier to notable lower tier talent.
  3. bean5302
    The Twins could have gotten something valuable back, but we'd be paying $20MM per year instead of $10MM.
  4. bean5302
    Contracts for the 2027 season would be void. Deferred money owed or earned from previous seasons (like signing bonuses, deferred salaries from 2026 or earlier, etc) would still be paid. Your assertion about contract length is correct. Contracts end in seasons/calendar years, not service years. Joe Ryan's value is going to utterly crater this year under all circumstances. Right now, he's got a surplus value of like 53MM according to BTV. But that's based o production of like $65MM of production value (like 4 WAR per year) with $13MM of salary to come. Next year, even if he's awesome by his own standards, he'll be worth less than half of that because his annual salary will be higher, and his control will be halved.
  5. bean5302
    Castro is poor defensively at most positions. He's got the physical tools to be solid, but IMHO, he's ill suited to a utility role. His bat was significantly below average last year, and as noted in the article, he was so poor Chicago left him flat off the roster for the playoffs. I certainly wouldn't put it past Falvey to sign him because of Falvey's penchant for signing every cheap free agent he can get his hands on, but Castro doesn't fill a need for the Twins right now. The time to sign him was before bringing in a cluster of low ceiling depth guys.
  6. bean5302
    Status quo is all I see with this ownership group. Same exact plan as always. Mulligan, Mulligan, Mulligan, Do Over, Mulligan. The Twins have basically 4 players and 22 question marks. This is how the Colorado Rockies operate, except Rockies games are fun to attend. Thinking a .500 season will get fans interested is incomprehensible to me.
  7. bean5302
    I'm not concerned about the power or HR rate all. He's 18. The walk vs. K rate is a bit concerning, but if there wasn't at least one significant concern area, Tait would be a top 10 MLB prospect right now and Duran wouldn't have come close to getting him. A huge shift in his defensive metrics with the Twins, dropping from 32% to 9% caught stealing, but with a dramatic improvement in the passed ball rate from 1 every 47 innings to 1 every 132 innings hints the Twins may instilling the organizational philosophy of who cares if you automatically turn a single or walk into a triple? It'll be interesting to watch Taits development this coming year. Anybody thinking there's a chance of seeing Tait prior to 2028 aren't being rational in my opinion. Tait is far from ready with plenty of work to do behind the dish and at the plate. If Tait looked near MLB ready at age 18 as a catcher, he'd be the #1 prospect in baseball, no question. Seeing him debut at 19 or 20 as a catcher would be nuts.
  8. bean5302
    Semantics aside, it's clear the Twins' catcher development system is barren. There's nobody in the system who could be expected to potentially fill a starting catcher role (or backup) role within reasonable reach of the MLB club in the next two years and Jeffers is gone at the end of the year. Cardenas is a long shot, at best, despite surface level output in AAA which would suggest there is something potentially there. Tons of weak contact despite being selective (passive) at the plate means he's likely to get eaten up by MLB pitchers, and though he showed pop, his max EV suggests below average raw power. Cosetti took a big leap forward at the plate last year, but at age 25 in his second trip through AA and nearly 1500 plate appearances in MiLB since being drafted out of college, it's likely all polish, and the 40% swing rate won't play at MLB just like the near 30% pop up rate suggests whiffs will skyrocket against better pitches. A total inability to control the run game remains, but at least he stopped letting balls fly past his glove to the backstop so regularly. Still, he projects as MiLB roster filler. The rest of the high minors guys aren't worth mentioning.
  9. bean5302
    The Twins desperately need a second catcher if they're trying to compete. Desperately. Falvey can't help himself, though. The trade was utterly stupid. The Twins had a legitimate, major need they potentially addressed. A need which was created by Falvey's incompetence in the first place. Instead of continuing to try to correct his mistakes, he made another. If Falvey really wanted Caraballo, it's not like he couldn't have packed something up and swung a deal for him separately.
  10. bean5302
    I've seen this sentiment before. The part I don't like is why was a demonstratably incompetent front office allowed to come up with a new strategy? Falvey hired the people he later scapegoated. He changed strategies at the plate, in the field, in negotiations. Pretty much everywhere due to failures in performance. The only thing which has been steady in this organization since 2017 is... Falvey being wrong. Biggest problem for me with the ownership of this franchise has been the lack of accountability for the heads of the program.
  11. bean5302
    Honestly, I'm not a fan of this happening at all. Kepler represented a totally new market for baseball, and he was a fan favorite at the stadium, even if he wasn't always appreciated here in the forums. This suspension sucks for all of baseball.
  12. bean5302
    At this point, Zebby has the raw stuff to be excellent, but there are some guys who just do not live up to their expected stats. Brandon Pfaadt is the best cautionary tale I can possibly give on this right now. He's all projection. Should be better, but he's not. Arizona doubled, even tripled down on expected metrics when the extended him to a 5yr $45MM contract. The AAV isn't going to break any team's back on its own, but Pfaadt wasn't effective. He had always been ineffective. ERA 5.72, then 4.71 (extension), then 5.25 last year. It wasn't one blow up game, either. Pfaadt delivered my preferred metric I call QS2 (5.0+ IP, 3.99ERA or lower) only 45% of the time. That's passable if he didn't have 8 starts with an ERA over 9 where he basically eliminated any chance of his team winning a game. That's like -5 WAR right there as even a AAA replacement pitcher would go 3-5 over 8 games. The pitch which arguably wrecked his year was the curveball. You could say he had... trouble with the curve. Ha, I'm clever. That was the pitch which absolutely wrecked game after game despite stuff metrics saying it was solid. Matthews delivered a QS2 only 37.5% of the time. That's pretty poor. He was reliably ineffective. The pitch which was likely to wreck a start was a sinker he added, but the standard rough start is owed to... his highly touted as improved fastball. There is another much maligned pitcher in Twins history who had stuff and expected metrics which said he should be better than he was. Ricky Nolasco. I'm not saying the two starters are comparable in terms of how they go about their craft, just that there are enough instances of pitchers who should be better, but aren't that Matthews is no sure bet. Personally, what I've seen watching him is poor command despite good control. Joe Ryan suffered from that earlier in his career as well. Ryan refused to walk guys, instead challenging MLB hitters when he should have accepted he was beat in the at bat. Ryan is an exception to the rule as he's developed and mastered multiple changes to his arsenal. Hopefully, Matthews can stick with his impressive arsenal and just improve his feel for the pitches to allow him to improve the actual results instead of just the expected numbers.
  13. bean5302
    Different PEDs do different things. In Kepler's case, it's not like HGH or recovery PEDs, it was an anabolic steriod designed to build muscle. Anyway, I'd say Kepler's career is officially over.
  14. bean5302
    Never got released, didn't really struggle at the MLB level. 2020 xwOBA .395 (elite) in a tiny 21 PA 2021 xwOBA .341 (All Star caliber) across 213 PA, .933 OPS in AAA Traded by Twins to Padres 2022 7 PA with Padres, .990 OPS in AAA Traded by Padres to Royals 2022 29 PA with Royals, 1.199 OPS in AAA 2022 xwOBA .264 (terrible) in a tiny 36 PA across 2 teams, raked in AAA Royals DFA'd with the intent to sneak him through waivers based on timing of the move, but Oakland claimed him. The rest is history. Rooker has been the same hitter in Oakland as he was in Minnesota in 2021 in terms of expected metrics.
  15. bean5302
    Garlick stuck around through 2023. Rooker posted up +1.7 fWAR over the same period as Garlick had with Minnesota.
  16. bean5302
    Bill Smith is highly underrated through revisionist history where Wilson Ramos turned into a perennial All Star catcher. The return for Johan Santana was Carlos Gomez, who generated 15.3 bWAR through his 2013 team controlled years. Smith botched the following trades, but I often wonder how much Gardy was pushing for the moves. Still nowhere near as bad as Falvey's Rooker fail. Smith's later drafts were rough, but he drafted/signed a ton of talent, pushed the Pohlad's into spending big dollars through extensions of players like no other GM has ever done in Twins history (Mauer, Morneau, Nathan, Cuddyer). He made some shrewd signings too. I don't think Smith was a terrible GM in retrospect, but I also don't necessarily think was a great one, either. In the end, Smith got canned after the first bad year. Meanwhile Ryan and Falvey had leashes for days.
  17. bean5302
    I hate the way people throw Aaron Judge out there as if he's comparable. Utterly nothing like Emma. Judge owned a 23.5% K rate in AAA in his second go-round... and with good power. Even in his first exposure to AAA, Judge only struck out 28.5% of the time. Wallner's AAA K rate is 28.8%. I couldn't find a single instance of an International League player who's been successful with a K rate higher than Emma's in AAA, who currently owns the a bottom 6% of all AAA hitters (#50/836) between 2021-2025 with 200 PA. The list reads of a bunch of fringe AAAA and MiLB depth guys in their mid 20s to early 30s... and then Emma.
  18. bean5302
    Most recent contributors coming to mind... Luis Arraez (Terry Ryan) came out of Venezuela. Jhoan Duran (Arizona) came out of the Dominican Republic. Jorge Alcala (Houston) came out of the Dominican Republic. Falvey's had no success at signing an international player and having them produce at the MLB level yet. At least for the Twins.
  19. bean5302
    Take it up with Falvey. He's got a history of beating down players in arbitration. Maybe he wanted that championship belt again this year.
  20. bean5302
    Oh yeah, loved Kyle Garlick and how the Twins kept him over Rooker. That was a good call. The grand total of 0.4 fWAR Garlick brought to Minnesota over his 3 year tenure is hard to beat!
  21. bean5302
    It's hard to evaluate these players when it comes to their asset value to the Twins. It depends on whether or not the Twins are trying to compete, and what metrics are valued. Keaschall didn't hit in AAA, and he was below average at MLB with Luis Arraez like power (and walk rates) in the second half of his MLB stint. There's plenty to like with his speed and upside, but the way he's being touted almost like a guaranteed stud remind me of Danny Santana's future as a career All Star SS. Lopez's value all comes in the form of a playoff worthy rotation arm and a steady force for a competitive team's rotation. Ryan brings everything Lopez does PLUS trade value if the Twins pivot from trying to compete. Obviously Jenkins and Culpepper are all future value, but there is a chasm between the two when it comes to national recognition and expectations which drives trade value. Jenkins blew the doors off AA, but initially floundered at AA. Hopefully, Culpepper's AAA adjustment is far less severe. I don't think I'd have Culpepper in the top 5. Feels too bullish.
  22. bean5302
    I can't argue with "scoreboard!" so you've definitely got a solid point on real production by bWAR levels. I have a major issue with bWAR these days. I used to like it way more than fWAR until I looked at Jose Berrios for the Jays vs. Aaron Nola in 2024. Berrios = 2.3 bWAR on the back of 192.1 IP, 3.60 ERA, 114 ERA+ Nola = 3.7 bWAR on the back of 199.1 IP, 3.57 ERA, 117 ERA+ The disconnect makes no sense, and I've run into Baseball Reference broken logic before. Even so, you've got a stronger argument than me saying, I don't like bWAR.
  23. bean5302
    Well, I think I'm in a pretty good position with the evidence I presented vs. you just not wanting it to be true, haha.
  24. bean5302
    Emmanuel Rodriguez will need to do something pretty special this year to regain peak value. I think the Twins might be able to get a 4th option year on him based on how much time he's missed with injuries, and that could really help. While I'm not a believer, Emma did make substantial strides in K rate at AAA this year. It's still way too high, but he was able to get the rate down from 37% to 31%. He just doesn't show a lot of game power in AAA, though. An ISO of .166 (average-ish) this year and .130 (pretty light hitting) the year prior. Emma's not a super young prospect anymore, either coming into his age 23 season with 5 years of professional MiLB experience under his belt. We'll see what ST has in store. He's averaged an over 50% K rate in previous invites. That really needs to get down to 30%-ish to show the needed progress.
  25. bean5302
    It's circumstantial, but there are what I consider to be supportive of my position. First is in regard to his conditioning. SWR has demonstrated his endurance is lacking. He gets pulled after 4-5 innings regularly, often with a velocity drop corresponding with about 80 pitches thrown. It's often cited how SWR wore down late in the year in 2024 after 112.1 innings in the big show (125.2 IP on the season including MiLB) with a 2mph drop off for his average FB in his final 5 starts vs his previous 5. Last season, he also showed reduced velocity at the tail end. His 6 starts prior to his demotion to AAA in July averaged 93.7mph on the fastball. Despite the sparkly ERA, his velo was down to 92.8mph over his last 6 starts coming back to the big show to finish the season out. Second is his coachability. The Twins coaches had apparently given up on him in 2023. For 2 years there were comments from the front office and coaches about SWR's inability to repeat his mechanics and adjust. He looked absolutely cooked and he was down to his last chance coming into 2024. SWR had to go to the coaches to seek help and almost overnight, once he finally was willing to listen, his mechanics got better and he picked up 3-4mph of velo going from wash out to legitimate rotation prospect. SWR continued to struggle a bit with repeating his mechanics throughout the 2024 campaign, but that's only natural considering the lack of experience with the effort. Barely adequate. A 4.55 xFIP in 2024, 2 demotions to AAA due to performance problems last year (5/14, 7/28) and a 4.71 xFIP on the 2025 season while averaging just 4.2 IP per start. That's barely adequate in my book. I don't see him as a legit desired rotation option for a playoff caliber team going forward. Do other teams have worse pitchers in their rotation? Sure. Do they WANT those worse pitchers in the rotation? Absolutely not.
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