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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    The question of a Joe Ryan trade has a few facets, but the biggest question is whether this team's competitive window is open with the roster we have? I'd say probably not. There are too many holes.
  2. bean5302
    By what metric? He's been below average to lousy by the data driven ones.
  3. bean5302
    I suspect the play by play vs. analyst broadcasts would appeal to different demographics. In the day and age we have, there are a lot of folks who enjoy the "react" videos which go off topic, etc. There are also going to be a lot of purists who want the full play-by-play, pitch-by-pitch details where it just feels comforting and "right."
  4. bean5302
    Orze can always be DFA'd! No options needed :)
  5. bean5302
    Orze has 4 of the 11 blown saves for the Twins this year. That's on Shelton putting Orze out there in positions where he can lose the game.
  6. bean5302
    Falvey has made a number of major changes to his drafting philosophy over the years as he failed over and over again. As Falvey failed, the coaches would get the blame and sent packing along with a changed draft/development strategy implementation. I'm not sure about Zoll, but from what I've seen, he's Derek Falvey 2.0. The same types of methodology this front office has always employed continued after Falvey's firing and during the season. For example, Falvey avoided drafting pitchers high in early years, preferring to concentrate on bat only mashers (Rooker, Larnach, Sabato, Wallner). Later, Falvey increasingly focused on high contact and more athletic players and was much more aggressive in the pitching area. This corresponded with moves away from the 3 outcome hitters the Twins had been trying to build around and the failure to develop any quality pitching. Just have to see what happens.
  7. bean5302
    Lee has posted negative OAA, FRV and rPM at 3B. He's neutral in DRS, but he'll be negative by year end. He has a weak arm and below average range. He's not going to be a good 3B, but he'll probably be serviceable. 3B list from Fangraphs. Lee is 17th of 23 which is close to bottom quartile. That's with a lot of luck at the plate. My expectation is by the end of the year Lee will have 0.5 WAR or less.
  8. bean5302
    Larnach is probably like a +12 surplus player right now. Teams looking to add aren't also trading MLB talent back. MLB for MLB trades don't generally happen. Larnach was a non-tender candidate not because he wasn't worth $5MM, but because he wasn't worth $5MM to the Twins and the front office has been utterly incompetent when it comes to trading guys like Larnach when they could.
  9. bean5302
    re: Young Fangraphs had him at #19 coming into the season, but yeah, fell completely off the top 40 at mid-year. He's got some massive adjustments to make as a high school pick who already has the deck stacked against him at SS. Shortstops need quickness above all else, and getting a long lever like Winokur or Young moving is very difficult. High school shortstop fielding methodology is also dramatically different from MLB shortstop fielding methodology. The whole one knee down let the ball come to you fundamentals isn't a thing in the pro levels. His eye at the plate recognizing balls and strikes seems okay as he's chasing only 28.6% of the time, but he's just awful at making contact. Having such a huge strike zone, and his overall swing mechanics seems to be a big issue. Since the Twins don't recognize the value in defense, they'll probably continue to try to make him into something he's not.
  10. bean5302
    I hope he does great! You're not going to find me rooting against players, just not expecting great things from a lot of guys based on expected metrics and observed limitations sometimes.
  11. bean5302
    Top 50 prospects since 2011 for the Twins include a few familiar mega-hyped MVP candidates like. Absolute flops: Kohl Stewart (peaked #36), Alex Meyer (peaked #29), Nick Gordon (peaked #33), Alex Kirilloff (peaked #9), Austin Martin (peaked #22), Future: Emmanuel Rodriguez (peaked #37), Walker Jenkins (peaked #3), Kaelen Culpepper (peaked #32), Eduardo Tait (peaked #39) Jury is out, but looking thin/bust: Royce Lewis (peaked #5), Brooks Lee (peaked #18) Thin careers, but not total busts: Aaron Hicks (peaked #39), Miguel Sano (peaked #4) Major success stories: Kyle Gibson (peaked #40), Byron Buxton (peaked #1), Jose Berrios (peaked #19), Max Kepler (peaked #44)
  12. bean5302
    Woo-Suk Go is unable to throw strikes, and hitters don't chase his stuff out of the zone. For Detroit's AAA club, Go only managed a abysmal 39% first pitch strike rate. That's going nowhere at the MLB level.
  13. bean5302
    It turns out you don't have to only sign high priced free agents when you build a team, and blowing your entire budget on declining DH's while pretending they can play defensive positions like they did in their 20s doesn't work, either. The Pohlad's provided a budget, Falzoll doesn't understand how that works. If Falzoll failed despite actually addressing the needs of the team rather than building an indestructible 72 win floor team rather than a 95 win ceiling team, the Pohlad's stupid payroll cut decisions would carry more weight.
  14. bean5302
    I see. You believe AAA and MLB have the same difficulty level so a prospects stats in AAA could be directly compared to active MLB players in MLB. Makes sense you'd be enamored with Jenkins based on that.
  15. bean5302
    Exactly what is it about Jenkins' SSS of "above average" production in AAA which has you so enamored? He ranks 78th of 265 International League hitters with 100+ plate appearances this year with a wRC+ 117. Any explanation other than Hype-a-saurus Rex, please.
  16. bean5302
    Taj Bradley's fastball is what's winning games. Why is that when the xwOBA and OBA are so much worse than his cutter and splitter? Because MLB hitters are expected to hit fastballs harder than offspeed and breaking stuff. Relative to his peers, Bradley is getting solid results from his fastball, and it's his fastball which sets up the effectiveness of other pitches. Getting that curve working or adding a slider/sweeper or changeup are likely to help him, but he's making massive improvements already vs. last year. We got him for a setup guy who was already arb 2 this year. Jax is making a pretty solid conversion to a starter right now, too, but it's hard not to believe the Twins are going to easily win this one.
  17. bean5302
    Roden was literally just activated from a two month IL stint when the Twins called up Fedko to replace Outman. While I agree the Twins shouldn't waste a roster spot on a guy with a role of pinch runner, occasional defensive replacement, they've been doing that for years now. If your argument is Fedko shouldn't have been called up because he's not MLB worthy, I'd agree. His expected performance in AAA is league average, and that's where he'll settle after he's demoted. He'll almost certainly turn right back into a pumpkin just like DaShawn Keirsey did. If your argument is this front office is poor at roster management; wasting a roster spot on a guy who will only play 5% of the time, I'd also agree. If your argument is the Twins should have called up Roden (who was literally activated from what might as well have been a 60 day IL trip that day, I'd say I disagree since Roden would be rusty as the Titanic.
  18. bean5302
    It's not based on 17 plate appearances. It's based on 1,866 plate appearances across 6 years in the minors, plus how he's looked at the plate in his 17 plate appearances at the MLB level. Fedko struggled at levels he should have dominated, he slowly moved up the ladder and continued to frequently struggle. xwOBA is a lot more valuable than wOBA when it comes to evaluating how a player looks vs. traditional values. Players with talent do not follow this pattern. Top college draft picks make MLB in 1-2 years. Legit prospect college picks make MLB in 3-4 years. Fedko was not called up because the Twins were planning on playing him as a regular. He was called up to be a defensive replacement in CF when Buxton wasn't playing, to be a pinch runner and give the regulars a spot of rest when deemed necessary. That bit player role is exactly why the Twins chose Fedko. They didn't want to waste service time of legitimate prospects filling a role like Fedko's being asked to fill. Harsh, but truth.
  19. bean5302
    "Decent speed" does not make an average to above average center fielder. Looking at Jenkins' metrics and comparing them to other International League Center Fielders, he looks stretched in CF. This makes sense based on Fangraphs' evaluation of his speed as a 55 grade guy with a 4.25 home to first base time and a 28 feet per second max sprint speed. Can Jenkins cover CF? He's probably not going to be a good center fielder, but he might be serviceable there. How much value is there in Jenkins playing in CF vs. Jenkins in right field? Right field is -7.5 runs. Center field is +2.5 runs. So 1.0 WAR difference from a full season positional adjustment, give or take. That's probably the difference between serviceable play in CF vs. excellent play in RF. Honestly, he's probably about like younger Max Kepler. Could he cover it? Maybe. Should he cover it? No. Aside from that, his bat projects below league average right now at the MLB level.
  20. bean5302
    Hey, what do you know? Another article calling for an analysis of Tom Pohlad's comments from January!
  21. bean5302
    Austin Martin started off as a primary shortstop in the minors for the Twins. That doesn't make him a shortstop. Jenkins is not best suited to CF, and his fielding metrics in AAA do not compare favorably to other CF's there, though he can probably handle it as a below average fielder there.
  22. bean5302
    Can you do the math on that for me? What player does Varland replace on the roster? The bullpen hasn't been a crippling reason the Twins have actually lost games this year. The Twins are tied for 16th in losses attributed to relievers and are above average at 13th in blown saves. Middle of the road. Sure, the bullpen has imploded on many occasions, but rarely were the Twins looking like they were going to win the game when it happened. As others have pointed out, as a ground ball pitcher, Varland wouldn't have been as successful with balls slow-rolling past Brooks Lee or bouncing off the glove of Luke Keaschall. Lets suppose Varland turns around two games (plausible) and the Twins are now +0.5 games on the Wildcard... Who cares? It's July, not the end of September. The Twins front office boldly traded basically their entire bullpen and then did NOTHING to address the black hole this offseason. That's the issue. Not trading what looked like a probable middle reliever or at best, a setup guy.
  23. bean5302
    2026 Kyler Fedko = 2025 DaShawn Keirsey, Jr. This was the expected outcome for Fedko. He's overmatched at the plate vs. MLB pitchers. Fedko's literally whiffing on fastballs in the zone. Players debuting after age 25 are almost never successful because of a talent gap, but its dramatically easier for a player at the cusp to keep chasing their dream now that it's not so financially crippling. Polish and hard work can carry a player a long way in the minors. It's not enough at the MLB level. The elite talent needs to be there, and Fedko doesn't have that. He's still one of the best baseball players in the world, but it doesn't take 6 years in the minors for a college draft pick with MLB talent to force themselves onto an MLB roster. It just doesn't. The Twins also viewed Fedko as a long shot, but with potential value as a pinch runner, defensive replacement, occasional spot starter they weren't concerned with burning clock/options. Fedko is a fun story, but folks expecting him to be good at the MLB level were really setting themselves up for disappointment. There are better every day options like Roden. If the Twins were absolutely out of it and not trying or they had moved on from Martin, traded Larnach and Buxton was definitely going to be out for a month plus, sure, start Fedko more. The Twins are trying to win ball games right now. Fedko's not getting playing time unless he earns it right out of the gate.
  24. bean5302
    a wRC+ 119 is not impressive in the minors for a corner outfielder.
  25. bean5302
    Accuracy is important. The rest is not necessary for a strong arm to have value in Right Field. The reason strong arms are valued in right field has to do with controlling the advancement of runners from 1st to 3rd on singles or from 2nd to third on fly outs. The rest of your post has to do with whether a fielder is a RF or a CF.
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