Jump to content
  • Create Account

bean5302

Verified Member
  • Posts

    671
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

bean5302 last won the day on August 22

bean5302 had the most liked content!

2 Followers

Recent Profile Visitors

666 profile views

bean5302's Achievements

  1. As metrics evolve, baseball should continue to change over time. Teams will continue to chase undervalued players and as a result, the strategies will change, forcing baseball to change. I don't think it will change fast enough on its own, though. The obsession with strikeouts from pitchers is driving the never ending climb in strikeouts from hitters, at least according to Bill James. MLB needs to step in and fix some of the issues. The pitch clock will help, but I think a HBP should be a ground rule double as well.
  2. In mid August, some folks here thought the Twins were going to likely avoid 90 losses this year after playing good baseball for 2 weeks, but that was always unlikely looking ahead at the schedule and winning percentage at the time. Honestly, I think the Twins have played quite a bit better over the past 2 months and the fact they're not on pace to lose 100 right now is reflective of that. The Twins' second half schedule has been very rough. Do folks realize they'll have 10 games against teams who are right now guaranteed to not finish at or above .500 in the second half? Cubs and Royals. That's it. Detroit (72-78), Cleveland (73-74) and the Angels (72-77) are still all fighting for .500 at the end of the year. In fact, most of the series' the Twins played in the second half are against teams who are already in the playoffs or are fighting for a spot right now.
  3. I gave this a like cause, well, that's a lot of thought and data, haha. You sound a bit disappointed Sano doesn't have a great chance at becoming the all time the poster boy for plate futility, lol!
  4. I didn't miss that part. My point is Sano had years and years to get close to 40, but he hasn't, and I compared Sano to Kepler so as to reinforce Sano not having legitimate 40 HR potential. He just doesn't make enough contact to get there. It's not a strength thing, it's a injury/health and 50% strikeout/walk thing reducing his potential at bats to hit home runs. Sano will likely become a qualified hitter for the first time in his career this year playing in 132-135 games or so with 31 home runs. In 150 games, that's still only a 35 home run pace with a career low strikeout rate and a lower than average walk rate (more contact) and an average career HR/FB rate. He just doesn't have that 40 HR season in him and that's been pretty solidified for several years now. He's not the Sano Twins fans were excited about in the mid 2010s with the theoretical 80+ game power and excellent plate discipline. If we were to re-grade Sano and compare him to who we hoped he was back in his prospect years... 2015 Hit 55, Power 75, Run 40, Arm 70, Field 40, Overall 65 2021 Hit 40, Power 60, Run 35, Arm 70, Field 30, Overall 45
  5. I did some research into my own questions around this a few years ago and I noticed some pretty distinct break lines between pitchers having a career year, mid rotation arms and "aces." Aces are consistent. They almost never give up 5+ runs in a game. A mid rotation type pitcher will have a streak of at least 3-4 games in a row without having a non-quality start as defined by 6.0+ innings and an ERA of less than 4.00 (3 ER starts need to go 7.0 IP+ to meet that definition). Ace pitchers are usually 5+ games at least once during the season. Zack Wheeler - Wheeler has only allowed 5+ runs twice. The 8 game streak of quality starts makes it clear though, it's not luck driven, he's the real deal. 1 QS, 3 NQ 1 QS, 1 NQ 8 QS, 1 NQ 2 QS, 2 NQ 1 QS, 4 NQ 2 QS, 1 NQ Max Scherzer - Again, only 2 games allowed all year with 5+ runs and a 5+ game quality start streak. 0 QS, 1 NQ 3 QS, 1 NQ 2 QS, 2 NQ 2 QS, 2 NQ 2 QS, 2 NQ 4 QS, 1 NQ - 1 game 3.1 inning game 0 ER shortened by rain 5 QS, 0 NQ Berrios - Berrios is awfully close to meeting the definition. He's only had 2 games giving up 5+ runs this year and 2 of his last 5 starts have been 6.2 IP with 3 ER = 4.05 ERA. All he needed was 0.1 IP more in each of those without giving up a run and he'd have 5 consecutive starts doing that. Still, Berrios isn't quite as rock solid as what somebody might expect of an Ace; I think he's a very good pitcher, but just not the kind of guy you really want leading your rotation in the playoffs. 1 QS, 4 NQ 1 QS, 3 NQ 1 QS, 1 NQ 1 QS, 1 NQ 1 QS, 1 NQ 1 QS, 2 NQ 3 QS, 3 NQ 1 QS, 1 NQ 2 QS, 1 NQ
  6. It's nice to see Sabato at least putting up a few numbers which look decent. Had he not finished hot, I think he already would have been labeled a bust. His 20% BB rate is extremely high 7th of 505 A+ hitters with 90 plate appearances, but not as high as his 35% K rate in A+, though admittedly, I had no idea the K rates for A+ hitters was as disgusting as it is. Sabato's 35% doesn't even rank in the bottom 10%. He kind of comes across as a hitter who will wait for the meatball, but honestly, meatballs start getting scarce at the high minor league levels. He won't be able to succeed long term with that approach.
  7. I appreciate the scouring for a deal, but the Twins need a #1 and #2 pitcher. Sifting through the bargain bin in the hopes somebody turns into one isn't my preference. Hernandez (26) will be nearly 27 at the start of next season and with 4 years in the big show, has only had 1 nice season in 2020 which featured only 25 innings pitched, but his FIP suggested a lot of luck in the limited sample size. His FIP this year stands at 5.08 suggesting, again, he's just gotten lucky in limited appearances. In regard to his "stuff" he's a soft tosser with an average velocity of 91mph without showing much in the minors. After 6 years in Houston's system, he still hadn't seen AA and was left off the 40 man roster. Miami selected him in a rule 5 draft so he got fast tracked to MLB from there and he's managed to hang on at the fringes with a team in a rebuild. Javier (24) will be 7 years removed from his draft and 25 before the start of next season. Another Houston prospect. He's posted very uninspiring FIP numbers in the high minors and MLB as a swing starter. He didn't exactly fly through the minors and that's generally a mark against front line potential. His career MLB BABIP is .218 and he's due for huge regression from his 3.33 ERA to his 4.33 xFIP. I don't think it's a surprise his K rate and BB rate both ballooned this year as his velocity increased 1.5mph, likely due to max effort throwing afforded by the bullpen conversion. Toussant (25) may have a gif with a 97mph fastball, but that's way faster than normal for him (94mph) and he's largely abandoned that pitch this year in favor of his sinker (93mph), I'd assume to get his walk rate to playable levels. He's basically a sinker, splitfinger, curve pitcher this year and that explains the drop off in K rate as sinkers are generally better at inducing ground balls and weak contact than strikeouts. Historically, his sinker didn't play well so I'm not sure what's better about it this year unless it just plays better without the four seamer. Without the strikeouts, there's nothing to see here.
  8. Sano has never hit 40 in his career. He'll likely just baaaaaarely get to 30 for the second time this year and I'd say he has an pretty outside shot at 40 once in his career. Kepler has a higher career best home run total than Sano at 36 vs 34.
  9. The difference between fans and the front office when it comes to roster construction is night and day. The front office gets paid to retain talent as it's one of their most important jobs. The roster crunch was a function of the front office itself, and losing Baddoo and Wells has been a big failure. Both Baddoo and Wells look like MLB caliber players right now and both have a chance to take another major step forward. I understand why Falvey decided to gamble by leaving both of those players off the 40 man, but I'm not the one getting paid big money to manage the roster. Having Wells and Baddoo perform well enough over the course of a lost year isn't good, but it's not the end of the world. The back breaker is if the players take major steps forward, and both players have certainly flashed the stuff to do it.
  10. We're talking about baseball 3rd strikes, not the pick up lines you were using in college. With gems like "Hey, do you like the internet?" or "Your three friends turned me down already so I'll settle for your number, I guess" or "I know we just met, but do you want to meet my parents over there? They're my ride home!" it's no wonder you whiffed so frequently...
  11. Looks like the Twins will get to face off against Berrios tomorrow. It should be interesting to see if he's nervous or in the mood to show the Twins how badly they messed up. Toronto looks to have made some pretty good decisions going in big for the playoff run this year. They've got a +175 run differential right now which is good for 2nd best in the AL behind Houston so I'm glad to see them pushing for the playoffs. It's a bummer, but the chances the Athletics or Mariners can bump the Red Sox and Yankees entirely out of the playoffs looks slim since neither of them have head to head matchups in the AL East remaining. The Blue Jays play the Yankees 3 games and the Red Sox and Yankees have one 3 game series in Boston left against each other.
  12. It's not that nobody on the list is productive, it's just that Sano is 12% worse than the next player on the list. Eventually, it gets so far out of proportion that a strikeout rate can't be overcome in terms of value. Sano is going to be on the Twins next year. His salary, remaining option buyout, inability to add defensive value in the field and status as an easy out when teams need that out (negative WPA) make him a liability. Sano is prone to hot/cold so a really rough month isn't unexpected, it's just part of Sano's game. I think he is working diligently on his strikeout rate, and I think he got a taste that his career in MLB is in its twilight if he doesn't make some changes hit him this year when he was benched. Time will tell. He's got a year left to prove he can overcome all the liabilities and stop the decline. He won't manage a single WAR this year and his WPA will finish in the negatives. It'd be great for the Twins, and Sano, if he can make the adjustments necessary.
  13. Why do you feel that way? It's possible you may be right, there just isn't any data I can point to which suggests he's declined much physically since his early years in the big show.
  14. Nice story for Maggi. Maybe it'll get him a little more exposure and get him a few plate appearances even next year?
  15. Rtot is pretty rough these days. It doesn't account for defensive shifts so it can dramatically skew fielding metrics because positions often get far more "chances" to field balls. I prefer using UZR... where Simmons is a below average shortstop because of his poor error rate this year.
×
×
  • Create New...