The Twins Need to Trade Joe Ryan at the Deadline

Joe Ryan has been everything the Minnesota Twins could have hoped for this season. Through his first 70 1/3 innings, the right-hander has posted a 3.20 ERA while striking out 79 hitters and establishing himself as one of the most reliable starters in the American League. He had a minor hiccup against the White Sox Monday night, but still, he's on a run of dominant outings stretching back to the end of April.

The advanced metrics suggest his success is no fluke, either. Ryan's expected ERA sits below his actual ERA, while his FIP is even lower. The underlying numbers paint the picture of a pitcher who has legitimately taken another step forward in 2026. Put simply, Ryan has pitched like an ace. And that's exactly why the Twins should consider trading him.

That might sound counterintuitive. But Ryan's combination of performance, affordability, and remaining control is precisely what would make him one of the most coveted players on the trade market. If the Twins decide they aren't positioned to seriously contend in the near future, there may never be a better opportunity to maximize the value of one of their most important assets. One of the biggest reasons why is Ryan's contract situation.

If he were approaching free agency, the decision would be relatively straightforward. The Twins would either keep him for a playoff push or move him for whatever return they could get before losing him. But that's not the situation here. Ryan isn’t a free agent until after next season, meaning whatever team (hypothetically) acquired him would be getting him beyond this year.

Acquiring a frontline starter for one postseason run is valuable. Acquiring one for multiple seasons is something entirely different. That's why teams are often willing to pay a premium for pitchers in Ryan's position. They're buying a pitcher who can slot near the top of the rotation immediately. They're buying cost-controlled production, and a player they don't have to compete for on the open market for multiple years. Those players rarely become available. And when they do, bidding wars tend to follow. A recent example (to an extent) is the Garrett Crochet trade.

When the White Sox moved Crochet to Boston, they landed four prospects in return, including a pair who ranked highly on Top-100 lists. While Ryan wouldn't command quite that level of return, the comparison illustrates the type of value that frontline pitching can generate.

The Twins could realistically target a package built around a Top-100 prospect and additional high-upside talent. More importantly, they would probably have multiple teams competing to make those offers. The market for starting pitching is almost always aggressive, and there are plenty of contenders who could use help.

The Braves, Padres, Yankees, Diamondbacks, Cubs and Brewers are all firmly in the postseason hunt that could really use a top-of-the-rotation starter like Ryan. Other clubs (the Cardinals? the A's?) might get involved if they hang around longer than expected and their rebuild seems to be ahead of schedule.

The point is that the Twins wouldn't be negotiating from a position of weakness. They would be negotiating from a position of strength. If Ryan were made available, Minnesota could afford to be selective. The front office could compare offers, identify the prospects they like the most, and ultimately choose the package that best fits the organization's long-term vision.

That's a luxury many sellers don't have. Of course, none of this means trading Ryan would be easy. In fact, it would probably be one of the most difficult decisions the front office could make. Ryan is a popular name. He's developed into exactly the type of pitcher every team wants leading its rotation. Trading players like that is never fun.

But front offices have to separate emotion from evaluation. The question isn't whether Ryan is good; the answer to that is obvious. The question is whether keeping Ryan gives the Twins a better chance to build a championship-caliber roster than trading him for a significant haul of young talent.

That's where things become more complicated. If the Twins were clearly positioned to compete for a World Series over the next couple years, holding onto Ryan would be an easy decision. You keep great players when you're trying to win championships. But if the organization believes it's still several pieces away, then Ryan becomes something different. He becomes an opportunity to add multiple young players and improve the organization's long-term outlook. An opportunity to accelerate a retooling process without committing to a full rebuild.

While Ryan is still relatively young, there's also the reality that pitcher value can change quickly. Pitchers get hurt, performance fluctuates, and circumstances change. There's no guarantee Ryan's trade value will ever be higher than it is right now. That's what makes this summer so intriguing. It's what made his elbow scare in May so paralyzing.

The Twins have one of the most valuable trade assets in baseball: a pitcher performing at an ace level, multiple years of team control remaining, and a market that would almost certainly be filled with interested buyers.

Whether the front office ultimately agrees is another question entirely. They may view Ryan as a foundational piece worth building around, and that's a reasonable position to take. But at the very least, the Twins should strongly consider the possibility. Because as difficult as it would be to trade a pitcher as good as Joe Ryan, the return might ultimately do more for the future of the franchise than keeping him ever could.