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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. You're conveniently ignoring how I've repeatedly said that trading for Donaldson won't be at the top of anyone's list and won't happen until after they all took their swings spending their 15M on FAs. It's not about date it's about what's left and what options they have to improve their team. A fair way to argue my point is to say I don't think 15M is significant if there's not players worth 15M on the market. Which I have. Over and over. Having 15M extra when there's nobody left to spend it on is simply putting 15M in Pohlad's pocket and the team not having Donaldson. I've never suggested you want to trade Donaldson for Happ. What I have done is repeatedly say I don't believe there will be players of a higher caliber than Happ available by the time teams would look to trade for Donaldson. Your house analogy doesn't fit my point. I'm saying by the time somebody wants to buy the house they've already tried to buy every other house they wanted more and now you're the only house available to them and after you sell your house the houses available to you are worse than the one you had. Name a team and a situation that leads to them wanting to trade for Donaldson, even with the risk he has. You haven't named one yet. Beyond SF there are no contenders with significant needs at 3B. Again, I've explained why I think that over and over and your response is simply "there'll be teams." If you ignore all context and just say you can have an extra 15M with that "rich FA crop" available then you have a point. I've provided context after context after context for why I don't think there will be a "rich FA crop" left by the time you can trade Donaldson. My first point, and the one I continue to try to make, is that I feel Donaldson is a poor trade chip during the offseason when teams have numerous other places to spend their money and not have to give up prospects. He's a better fit as a midseason trade for a team that loses their 3B, or DH, and is fighting for a division. Which is why the Mets were interested last year. You continue to argue in a vacuum Donaldson gone, 15M spent on big-ish name FA. I continue to say that isn't realistic in the real world due to the reasons why you want to move Donaldson and the nature of teams having numerous options to spend their money on without having to trade any prospect capital.
  2. Quit saying it's a mischaracterization. It's not. It's me disagreeing with your stance. It's not unfair framing it's me providing context and reasons for why I say what I do. I explained why I don't think they'd get much more than Happ or Colome types. By the time somebody traded for Donaldson (because it wouldn't be their first priority or plan A) the Thor, Gray, Seager types would be gone. That's not a mischaracterization, it's me saying I disagree and here's why. This is at least the 3rd time I've explained that trading for Donaldson won't be anyone's plan A and they will go after FAs first and turn to a Donaldson trade after they miss on FAs. I believe by the time somebody turned to that option any money the Twins would save this season wouldn't be able to go to anyone of significance because they'd already be signed. And your first paragraph is you explaining why nobody else would want to spend prospect capital and 15M a year on Donaldson. If he's a risk of being an albatross to the Twins he's a risk of being an albatross to them. But you keep arguing not only will teams want to take on that albatross, but they'll want to give a "decent return" to do so. I've explained numerous times why I think it's insignificant. I don't know how else to say it. I've provided the context for why I think that. If they can trade Donaldson and gain an extra 15M in early November I'm all good with it. That's not realistic. Nobody is going to be putting "Trade for Josh Donaldson" at the top of their offseason to do lists. Nobody. They're going to wait until everybody that they'd like to spend that 15M on is signed and then say "hey, may as well see if we can give the Pohlads 15M for Donaldson." You are yet to provide a team with a legit need for a 3B who may want to give up a prospect for the chance to pay Donaldson 15M a year for 2 years despite your proclaimed "very real chance" he can't perform to expectations. Your best example is the Giants wanting him over a longer Bryant deal. I've refuted that and laid out the 3B situation for every other contender all the way down to the Tigers. Your claim is he'll have an early offseason market (if they can't trade him early in the offseason they're simply cutting payroll because there's nobody of significance left to sign late, as I've stated over and over) of teams wanting to take on a potential albatross despite none of them having a priority need at 3B. None of this is me mischaracterizing anything. This is what you're saying. And I've laid out numerous examples and reasons for why I disagree. If your best response is "you're mischaracterizing me" over and over while I continue to explain that I'm simply disagreeing and providing reasons why I think you're the one struggling to find "fair framing" for an argument.
  3. I don't think having an extra 10-15M this offseason would be significant, no. For the reasons I explained. I don't see the market you do. If the market were to materialize it wouldn't be until after the teams missed on their primary targets and by then the FA market would have been picked over and that 10-15 wouldn't be able to go to a Thor, or anyone else in that level of talent as I think they'd all be gone by then. So having 10-15 to spend on more Happ, Shoemaker, Colome, Robles, or Pineda types is not significant to me. With no context, yes, 10-15 million is obviously significant, but in this context, no, I don't think it is. And the idea that trading him could save us 50M is outlandish to me. I believe there is a literally 0% chance any team will take on his entire deal. Unless the Twins throw in significant prospect capital. So with only 2 years left and not believing they could use the 10-15 in a significant way this offseason I don't think trading Donaldson this offseason makes any sense. I haven't mischaracterized anything, I've simply argued that your ideas aren't accurate and have attempted to use a number of contextual thoughts as to why. I believe you overvalue his trade value. I've explained why. I believe you overstate his market. I've explained why. I believe you overvalue how much a team would be willing to take on of his deal. I've explained why. I have mischaracterized nothing, I simply don't agree and have used many different explanations to show the context around why I disagree.
  4. My first response to you was that the Twins couldn't save enough money by trading Donaldson to sign Thor. 15M isn't enough to sign Thor. The QO is 18.4M, if he's willing to sign for 15 he'd take the QO he's very likely to receive. 15M per year isn't getting you a #1 pitcher. It's getting you a good 3, poor 2. I've given your position merits and disagreed with them. Mets: I already went over the their 3B situation. JD Davis is every bit the hitter Donaldson is and is still in arbitration. I don't see why you think they'd want to have Donaldson for 15M+ instead of JD for likely less than 3m. The Mets need a CFer far more than they need a 3B. They'd be more than happy to go into next year with JD Davis, Lindor, McNeil, Smith, Alonso across the IF/DH, not lose any prospects, and have that 15M to put towards a CFer (or Conforto extension). Yankees: I haven't seen anything about them wanting Urshela out, but even if that's true they have Torres at 2B and a pretty expensive DJ LeMahieu at 3B. They're going after the big time SSs, not Josh Donaldson. Phillies: Alec Bohm is a 3B costing the league minimum. I'd think they'd prefer him for the minimum, not losing a prospect, and having that 15M to throw in their offer for one of the "big 5", because. like the Yankees, they need a SS and will be in on the big 5 more than Josh Donaldson. If the Twins should prefer Arraez/Miranda at 3B with extra money to throw at bigger needs why would the Phillies not prefer to have that extra money to throw at bigger holes (SS and CF) and not lose a prospect? Brewers: Not taking on any sort of significant money (they're not paying 15+M a year) for Josh Donaldson. They're just not. They're cheaper than the Twins and already have a bad Jackie Bradley deal on their payroll. Giants: I guess they're your best bet in preferring Donaldson on 2 years and 35M (your numbers) while trading a "decent return" for him over wanting Bryant back. Josh Donaldson is not a great offseason trade piece. There are not the openings on contenders that you suggest there are and non-contenders aren't going to trade away a prospect to bring back Donaldson and 15M a year. It's why I say he's a better mid-season trade option. Teams are limited on how they can improve their team and the Twins can demand more in return at the deadline.
  5. You continue to misrepresent my position. I have never, not one single time, suggested there's a "Super JD" that stays with the Twins and "some schmo" who gets traded. I haven't so stop suggesting I have. You're either not understanding my point or are just continuing to misrepresent it. Being the 3rd best player on the Twins doesn't make him the 3rd best player on another team. He is who he is, and he's a useful player. But he's not worth 35-40M let alone 52. Why would a team pay more for Josh Donaldson than the Dodgers did for Justin Turner? They wouldn't. So he's, at most, worth 30-34. Which means the Twins are eating around 20M, like I've said from the beginning. A team will not trade a real prospect for the right to pay Donaldson what he's worth so the Twins would have to eat more to get any real prospect. You don't care about the prospect return so I've been using the eating 20M number as the basis for everything in this because you just want to clear the money. That's the money they can clear. About 15M per year. Being able to fit Donaldson in under the luxury tax threshold and being willing to take on his entire contract without taking prospects with him are two completely different things. The Twins can not "get a decent return" by paying down 10-20% of his deal. He isn't worth 40-45M. No team is going to give prospects to pay Donaldson more than he's worth. You're now suggesting somebody will give a "decent return" to pay Donaldson 10M more than Turner. That isn't realistic. Bryant and Escobar being the "only 3B" on the market is ignoring that teams sign the best talent and move them around on the field as needed now. Like the Jays signing Semien and moving him to 2B. Or the Mets trading for Baez and moving him back to 2B. I wouldn't be shocked by the Dodgers resigning Seager with the plan to move him to 3B after next year, bring back Turner at SS, and have Lux at 2B. Who are all these contenders that so desperately need a 3B that they'd be willing to overpay for the guy you want the Twins to trade because he'll likely breakdown (you're the one suggesting he's "Super JD" if they trade him and "some schmo" if they keep him, by the way)? None of the 4 teams playing now need Donaldson. The Yankees need a SS, not 3B. White Sox don't need him. Cards don't need him. Padres don't need him. Tampa doesn't need him and wouldn't pay him. Toronto could use him, but would much rather spend that money to bring back Semien, Ray, etc. Oakland doesn't need him and wouldn't pay him. Seattle could probably use him, but aren't good enough yet to overpay for a veteran (would probably prefer Seager back for much cheaper). Cleveland doesn't need him. Are the Tigers going to let the Twins off the hook by trading for him and his money? Angels don't need him. Cincinnati needs a SS, not 3B. Philly needs a SS, not 3B. Mets could maybe use him, mostly likely as a DH part time, but have JD Davis at 3B (he was hurt during the season which is why they were looking for a 3B cuz they didn't have FA options, you know, like I said). So really you're banking on the Mets being willing to overpay him. I'm not really seeing any other contenders outside the Mets, Brewers, and Giants who might be looking for a 3B. I'd think the Giants would prefer to pay Bryant than trade for Donaldson and take on 40-45M of his deal (10-20% Twins payment leaves them with that much to pay) and give the Twins a "decent return." The Brewers are most definitely not taking on a huge chunk of his deal. They're cheaper than the Twins and would prefer to bring back Escobar for cheaper I'd think. So really it's the Mets thinking paying Donaldson 40-45M over 2 years is worth a "decent return" instead of having JD Davis at 3B. JD Davis had an OPS+ of 126 this year, by the way. Donaldson's was 127. Davis is still in arbitration so much cheaper which would allow them to bring back Baez at 2B. Not sure why you think their offseason plan would be to pay Donaldson 40-45M and give up a "decent return" instead of paying Baez part of that 40-45M and spreading the rest out to bring back Thor or Stroman and fill their CF need. Or instead of Baez let McNeil play 2B and go get Starling Marte since their need is far greater in the OF than IF. So who are all these teams you think are so desperate for 3B help they'd give a decent return for Donaldson with the Twins only eating 5-10 million?
  6. I've never said JD is the MVP of the league with the Twins and some schmo with another team. Nowhere near that, actually. You're the one twisting things. I've said in every post I've made on this thread that JD is worth more to the Twins than on the trade market this offseason because of the $52 million he'd be owed if traded. That doesn't mean he's a better player for the Twins than he is for somebody else, it means teams aren't willing to trade for a player and pay them more than they're worth. Would you pay a car dealership for the right to pay twice as much for a car than it's worth? I also went through the idea that other orgs won't be looking to trade for JD before they see what they can get on the free agent market. Trading for an overpriced vet isn't going to be team's first option. It'll likely be their backup plan if they can't get who they want on the market (any contender is going to be looking to bring in one of the 5 SSs before they trade for JD). Which means there's a very good chance that by the time the Twins could even pull off a JD trade there will be little to no top end pitching talent left on the market and now you've traded JD for the chance to sign Happ, Shoemaker, Colome, Robles, or, at best, Pineda types. That's why I say trading him during the season would be a better time as teams would have limited options for improving their team and he'd have less on his deal. That's not making a different argument or changing my stance, it's adding more context. JD would get about half of what his current contract is if he were on the open market. Maybe a little more. No team is going to trade anything at all to take on his deal. They aren't. It's not a debate. Nobody does that. The Cards got $50M from the Rockies and traded no real prospects (Gomber was the best piece and he's a #4 type starter) to get a drastically better, and younger, Arenado last offseason, and the Rockies were blasted by everyone in the industry for being completely incompetent. But you think the Mets are going to take JD and most of his money? It's possible, but I highly doubt it. Feel free to post any MLBTR posts about the Mets being willing to take on his deal and not get prospects back. I went through JD's, the Twins', and the Mets' MLBTR pages (where you claim there's talk of the Mets taking on his deal) this morning and the only mentions of trade talks in there say there was never real traction on a deal. Maybe because the Mets didn't want to take on his whole deal and the Twins didn't want to have to trade prospects to get rid of their 3rd best player? But we'll just agree to disagree that Arraez/Miranda at 3B with $75M payroll room is better than JD at 3B, Arraez as IF utility/injury replacement, Miranda getting his feet wet, and $60M payroll room.
  7. If the Mets were willing to take on darn near all of Donaldson's contract without the Twins having to kick in prospects the FO should be fired for not taking that deal. It simply isn't realistic. No team would have been willing to take on 65 mil for Donaldson. There's no chance. Justin Turner is a better player than Donaldson is right now and has been a key member of a championship caliber team for the last 8 years. Donaldson absolutely could not get more than Turner on the open market. Maybe Donaldson could get 2 years 30, maybe. So the Twins have to eat 20 mil just to get back to even and would then maybe get a flier prospect in low A. So now they're paying 10m a year for their 3rd best hitter and 3rd best fielder to play somewhere else. So your lineup and defense just got significantly worse. Adding Gray would be nice, but you can get him without trading Donaldson. Shipping out Donaldson would also be a signal to FAs that the Twins aren't looking to compete in 2022 and are rebuilding with young guys. Many FAs wouldn't want to go to a team in that situation and MN already has a hard enough time convincing FAs to come here in the first place. Trading Donaldson and eating 20M guarantees the Twins have a worse lineup and worse defense for next year without guaranteeing they improve anywhere else. They'd have an extra 15M to spend, maybe. That doesn't mean they get a guy worth 15M/year. Maybe they miss on everyone in that range and end up with a Pineda type and Colome type. Are the Twins better without Donaldson but with a #3ish starter and ok, but not shutdown, reliever? I'd argue no. I have no problem with the Twins moving Donaldson if they can get a good deal. But he's not going to be at the top of anyone's to do list early in the offseason. Teams will look to bring in FAs first. The SS market is going to slow much of the offseason down as all the contenders will want to take a shot at getting one of them. So they'll have to wait until most of the FAs are gone and at that point the extra 15M isn't going to be bringing in a 15M player, but would, at best, be used to bring in some Happ, Shoemaker, Colome, Robles types. That's why I say chances are you get a better deal at the deadline if Donaldson is playing well and the team is struggling.
  8. I never said they'd have to pay his entire salary. I said they'd have to pay the balance of the 50M above what he'd be worth on the market now to get any sort of prospect back. JD isn't worth 25 a year for his age 36 and 37 seasons. No team (Mets or any other high spender) is going to give the Twins even a flier for the right to take on 50M in payroll for JD. They just aren't. JD is worth more to the Twins because trading him means they'd still be paying part of his salary and they wouldn't be getting much, if anything, in return. If teams wouldn't pay him 50 over 2 on the open market what makes you think they'd trade even a flier of a prospect for the right to trade for him and pay him more than they think he's worth? That's why people say he is important to the 2022 Twins, but he's got little value on the trade market. The Mets very well may have been willing to eat almost all of his contract at the deadline, but they would've been asking for the Twins to send prospects with him to balance it out. So the Twins would be sending prospects out just so they could get out from under his contract. If you're trying to win in 2022 that would make sense as long as you're bringing in MLB players with the saved money. So they'd basically be trading prospects for the chance to sign a pitcher or SS with the 21/25M saved while creating a hole at 3B. If they miss on all the top guys in that price range and are stuck signing multiple lower level guys for that extra 21/25M they'd have traded the better player plus prospects for the chance to sign 2 or 3 mid-level guys. That's awful asset management.
  9. Paying another team to have him play for them is still dead weight. Kicking in $25M still means that's $25M the Twins won't be spending the next 2 years on new contracts. I don't think the payroll of the other team matters that much in instances like this. Donaldson wouldn't get 2 years $50M for a contract this offseason if he was a FA. Unless the Twins are adding prospects on their side no team is taking on the 2 years $50M left on his deal. Even if they're the yanks or dodgers. The Twins would have to kick in money no matter who they trade him to. A pretty significant amount probably. The question is what would other teams be willing to give him if he were a FA. The Braves were the only team close (reportedly) when he signed 2 years ago. So teams didn't think he was worth the original deal then so they likely don't think he's worth what's left now. No team is going to send back anything worthwhile and also take on more $ than Donaldson is worth. To get out from under real money they likely have to kick in prospects of their own and I think that'd be significantly worse than just keeping him. There's no reason to believe he'll be significantly worse in 2022 than in 2021 as he's pretty notoriously dedicated to the craft of hitting. He won't be worth the $50M he still has on his deal over the next 2 years as his defense declines more, but I think he's still worth more hitting well for the Twins than the Twins paying another team to have him hit well for them. I think best case is he gets off to a crazy hot start next year and you can trade him at the deadline if the team is struggling. Would likely have to pay less to move him next season than this offseason.
  10. I don't think the bolded part is true. The Twins are going to have to eat money whether they get a good prospect or me in return. They're not saving enough money to sign Thor simply by trading Donaldson. That's why I don't think it makes sense to trade him now. The Twins will simply have to eat too much money to move him and then you're getting worse while not freeing up money to improve elsewhere.
  11. The problem is they wouldn't be able to dump any significant salary. Even if they don't bring any real prospect back they'd still have to kick in a ton of money and wouldn't really be dumping enough money to help sign Buxton let alone Buxton and pitching.
  12. JD is the best fielding 3B the Twins have. You'd want Miranda, etc. to rotate through 1B before you move JD over there and hurt your defense.
  13. I see very little chance of getting a quality return for JD during the offseason. Either you're eating a ton of money and watching your team get worse while hoping on a lottery ticket prospect, or you're eating a little money while watching your team get worse and getting nothing in return. I think waiting til the deadline is a smarter move. He's got less money on the books and if he's raking again somebody will want him. If the team is doing well and he's raking then you keep him as that was the plan when you gave him the deal to start. Obviously take calls and listen to any offers, but if I'm the Twins FO I'm not actively shopping him during the offseason.
  14. It surprises me that so many people write these 5 off in favor of a "glove guy" at SS for 1 year followed by Lewis or Martin. Lewis and Martin aren't glove guys so if your goal is a superior fielding SS then waiting for Lewis or Martin is a terrible plan. Semien moved off SS in deference to the Blue Jays incumbent super-star-to-be SS, not because he couldn't field the position. He was in the running for a gold glove his last 2 years in Oakland. Correa is maybe the front runner for the gold glove this year. Story has long been considered a plus glove and Baez is widely considered one of the best all around gloves in the game. I know the defensive metrics don't always match what the perception of players are, but, as someone who has worked for multiple analytics companies that put out these defensive stats, all I can say is to take them with a grain of salt. They are nothing like the offensive stats you see and are wildly unstable. Just look at the difference in what all the metrics say and you can see that we are not exactly close to being able to produce a singular number to represent a player's defensive capabilities. I've said it in other threads, but my plan for this offseason would revolve around extending Buxton and signing one of these 5 guys. Semien would be my last option due to his age, and Seager would be my second to last as he's the worst fielder and most likely to be bumped to 3B of this group. But I'd take any of the other 3 on 6 or 7 year deals while locking Buxton up for 6 or 7 years and talking to Polanco about an extension to get him to 6 or 7 years as well. I'd have the 3 most important defensive positions on the field (I know some say catcher, but with the downturn in stolen base attempts and soon to come robo-umps I don't see them as being that important anymore and would switch to trying to go after offensive weapons behind the plate) locked in with all star to super star talent and worry about the rest after that. The Twins need pitching, there's no doubt about it. But to build sustainable pitching you need to develop it. If they can't develop pitching they're screwed anyways. I think there's a mix of deals for Pineda types, Gray/DeScalfani types, and trades that the Twins can pull off to fill their rotation and also bring in one of these top SS options. They are going to be full of pre-arb players getting shots the next 2 years so they can afford Donaldson as well until his deal runs out. Not to mention Sano coming off the books after next year. I'm one of the more pro-prospect people on these boards, but the Twins don't have a major league SS in their system right now. Miller is their only real hope and he's fresh out of HS so who really knows right now. Lewis and Martin aren't the answer. And I may be the biggest Lewis believer on this site (I think he'll be darn near ready by opening day). SS is no longer a glove first, any offense is a bonus position. There are super star hitters all over the majors at the SS position now. The Twins should go get one and have the middle of the diamond, and the top 3 spots in their lineup, locked in for the next 6 or 7 years. They have corner position prospects coming out of their ears and it's time to lock in the middle with elite players and let the young guys battle it out for the corners.
  15. No, they let him go to save $9-10M that he would've cost in arbitration. That every other team also decided he wasn't worth. I don't think they thought Cave was better than him at all. They thought Cave, Kirilloff, Lewis (he wasn't hurt yet), Rooker, and Larnach plus $9M+ to spend elsewhere was better than Rosario.
  16. I'd argue it's done a great deal to help teams acquire the best baseball players, but agree it has not been beneficial to the game. Our understanding of what makes a player good has grown exponentially, but it's ruined the product on the field and that's a shame.
  17. You said his bat is "NO better than Simmons." That's an unbelievably wrong statement. Yes, Semien used to be an awful fielder, but I notice you used stats from 3 and 6 years ago while ignoring his recent numbers. He was even in the discussion for the gold glove the last 2 seasons. You're wrong. You can have whatever feelings you want about any of these players, but there is nobody in the baseball industry who thinks Semien and Simmons are even worth discussing in the same conversation. Simmons career may be over while Semien is a top 5 MVP candidate. It's not a discussion worth having. I won't be responding to any further comments along these lines. It's simply so far outside of the consensus it's not worth discussing further.
  18. Marcus Semien is about to be top 5 in MVP voting for the 2nd time in the last 3 years. The suggestion that he's not a better hitter than Simmons is so wrong I don't have words for it. This conversation has run its course. You wouldn't find a scout from any organization that would agree with your assessments of these players, I'm sorry. You wouldn't find a member of any FO that would agree with your assessments of these players. Simmons is one of the least valuable players in baseball moving forward. His days of being a star defensively and just barely good enough offensively are behind him. He's going to struggle to get a major league deal this offseason most likely. He just had one of the least productive seasons in the history of the game.
  19. I think Jax is certainly the longest chance of happening. I think the other 3 are reasonable enough. I think Kirilloff will be a star if his wrists hold up. My only concern with him is the injuries and that he's going to have a career of battling wrist issues that will kill his power. I think Ryan is probably a #3 starter, but I could also see him as a Josh Hader type relief weapon. I'd be happy with either result for a half season of Nelson Cruz during a lost season. I'm a Lewis believer. I don't know that he hits the ground running next year, but I believe in his athleticism and work ethic. I wouldn't be shocked by a May or June call-up next year at all. I just think the kid is a gamer and he's going to come into next year as ready as anyone in his situation could.
  20. That's fine. But suggesting Correa is no better than Polanco at short is really out there. Simmons is on the way down and he's nowhere near the defender he used to be. Still above average, but certainly not the all world guy he used to be. And Correa is an above average defensive short stop. Don't think you'd find any scout who'd say he isn't. Seager isn't anything special in the field, but the other 4 big name FA short stops are all above average defenders that hit drastically better than Simmons and would be a drastic upgrade for the team. Story, Baez, Correa, and Semien will all be pretty similar to Simmons defensively next year I'd bet. Story, Baez, and Correa for sure. And Simmons can't touch any of them offensively.
  21. I don't think you'd be able to find a professional baseball scout anywhere that would agree that Correa isn't better than Polanco at short. Their arms aren't even comparable. OAA (Baseball Savant) ranked Correa as the 6th best defensive SS in baseball this year. The fielding bible had him #1 in baseball (above Simmons). Everyone on this list is significantly better defensively than Polanco. Like it isn't even a debate.
  22. Are you suggesting the Twins have no scouts and base 0% of their decisions on eyes on observations?
  23. I don't see any reason the Twins couldn't sign one of these guys. As they turn the pitching staff, and multiple position player spots, over to young guys on pre-arb deals they can afford JD, Buxton, and one of these guys for the next 2 years until JD is off the books and they have to start paying arbitration raises on the young guys. Assuming 6-7 year deals for Buxton and a SS you'd then let them walk as they'd be well into their 30s and use that money to extend the guys ending their arb years (all of this hinges on the CBA not being drastically changed, which it certainly might). I know many people won't like this, but my priorities this offseason wouldn't be pitching first, but would be to lock in Buxton, lock in one of these SSs, and talk to Polanco about another extension. I'd want to come out of this offseason with the middle of my defense locked in for the next 6 or 7 years. The pitching has to be internal development. I'd like them to bring in some veteran arms (Pineda and somebody better), but they can't reasonably build an entire staff with FAs. I'd be open to looking at some trades for arms, but my #1 goal for this offseason would be to go into 2022 with my SS, 2B, and CF locked up for 6-7 years. I don't think Lewis is a SS at the ML level and I'm quite positive Martin isn't. Lewis would be my primary backup for Buxton while also being my super utility guy (covering basically every position but 1B and C) moving forward, and Martin would be a right handed Arraez for me (2B, 3B, and LF). I'd prefer to stay away from Semien for 6 or 7 years, but would take him for 4 or 5. The rest I'd be fine signing for 6-7 years with Seager being the only one I'm really concerned about moving off SS. Baez and Story are GG type fielders and Correa isn't far behind. I don't see any reason those 3 won't play SS for the rest of their careers.
  24. Oh I'm sure it'd be real hard to get to one that is at .7, but the .3s that velo has to ERA, FIP, xFIP leaves a lot to be desired. Velo certainly helps, but I'm not ready to say it's a problem that the Twins don't hunt it. Lots of ways to get guys out, and pure velo doesn't do it. Control and mixing pitches are far more important than just throwing hard.
  25. The biggest r value amongst those variables is WAR compared to 95+% at .535 which is something, but certainly not statistically significant. The rest are in a range from -.278 (vFA to ERA) to -.487 (vFA to xFIP). Most are in the -.36 to -.46 range which shows there's really no strong correlation between 95+% or vFA and the results. I don't think anybody would argue it's not better to have velo if you can, but this data shows there isn't really an overwhelming correlation between velo and ERA, FIP, xFIP, or WAR. You can be successful without having huge velo even if it does give you a slight advantage overall.
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