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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    That's fair. I think there's an incredibly small chance he gets those deals. If he's given the QO, I don't think there's much of a chance he doesn't sign it. The CBA could change all of this. The MLBPA wants the QO to go away. Floor, cap, team control length, all kinds of things could change and none of this will matter anymore. But, based on what we have in place right now, if Jeffers is offered 23 mil for 1 year, I can't imagine he doesn't jump on it.
  2. chpettit19
    Jeffers would sign it in a heartbeat. I only said 75% to be semi-reasonable. But the real likelihood is probably more like 99.9%. He's likely looking at something similar to Vazquez's deal. 3 years and somewhere between 25 and 35 mil. If you can get 23 for 1 and still turn around and get that 3 year deal the next year, why would you turn that down?
  3. chpettit19
    It, unfortunately, also sets the bar for trade negotiations. I think trading him is the right thing to do, but I expect people will be upset with the return. When teams throw out offers the Twins can't say they need more than a late 1st round pick in value because the other teams know they aren't getting that. So the bar is set at an early third round pick type value. Why they should've traded him in the offseason.
  4. chpettit19
    Are we sure it'd likely be in the low 30s? How many catchers have ever signed deals over 50 mil? I'd guess it's more likely the pick is after the 2nd round. Weigh that however you want, but there are not a lot of catchers out there signing deals big enough to get the Twins a comp a pick. Going into his age 30 season coming off an injury that will likely depress his numbers in the 2nd half, I'd say it's unlikely, but not impossible, that Jeffers gets 50 mil. I'd put the likelihood Jeffers accepts the QO at over 75%. Assuming financials are important to him.
  5. chpettit19
    How do you plan to build the team around him? If the CBA forces the Twins to up their payroll by 50-75 mil in 2027 (very real possibility that a floor of some sort is implemented, but very well may not go into effect until 2028 or 2029 to give teams a chance to adjust), an argument could be made for having 50+ million tied up in Correa, Buxton, and the catching tandem. If not, there is no way paying Ryan Jeffers the highest catcher salary in baseball is good for the Twins 2027 team. Having 30 mil wrapped up in the catcher position for a team with a 100 mil payroll, 10 of which goes to a guy not even on the team, is not a good use of resources. At all.
  6. chpettit19
    There are certainly Boras clients that sign extensions before they hit free agency, but they are relatively rare. The players get a say in whether or not they're extended. The Twins can overpay guys to convince them to stay, but that is not a good team building strategy. If the player wants to hit free agency, or doesn't want to stay here, or doesn't want to give up their chance to pick where they play, the Twins can't just force them to sign. It's not just automatically a failure of the front office when they don't extend guys. Some guys (Buxton, Polanco, Kepler, etc.) are willing to take extensions and not hit free agency. Others aren't. We'll never know what conversations were had behind the scenes about an extension.
  7. chpettit19
    $30 million on the catching position for a team with a total payroll that I'll believe jumps significantly above 100 million when I see it? That's a tough spot to be in. Especially when you consider the Correa payment to Houston. The Twins would be paying Buxton, Correa/Houston, and the catchers about half their payroll unless the Pohlads are forced to spend (new CBA) or suddenly drastically change direction in payroll. All these prospects better be REALLY good if you're trying to win that way.
  8. chpettit19
    Caminiti and Hartman from Atlanta is my #1 hope right now.
  9. chpettit19
    I'm happy to be proven wrong if you can show me some examples of significantly larger returns for guys traded with 2.5 years of control compared to similar guys traded with 1.5 years of control. Who's "they?" I'm certainly not talking about it being built around a single top 100 prospect. The value should absolutely still be 2 big time prospects.
  10. chpettit19
    As it turns out, Joe Ryan has a say in whether or not the Twins extend him. And if you listened to his public comments after the trade deadline, you may not be inclined to believe he'd sign an extension here. They could overpay him to get him to sign, but that would then have the opposite effect on his trade value. And I'd say they can get pretty much the same now as the could've last year. We're not talking an extra top 100 prospect or anything. It'd be a slight improvement on the 3rd or 4th prospect in the deal. There isn't some massive swing in value going from 2.5 to 1.5 in controlled years.
  11. chpettit19
    Oh, I struggle, too. And I'm certainly not here to suggest anyone should not question Zoll and his ability to do the job he's now in. But I'd point out we don't know what the other offers were for anyone. Roden wasn't the key part of the Varland deal, Rojas was. If Rojas was the best prospect they were offered and the Jays were offering either Roden or some nobody in rookie ball, I'd say Roden makes sense. If they were offering Rojas and a SS at the same level as Roden, then I'd say Roden doesn't make sense. If they brought back the best talent possible in their trades, I have no complaints. There's no way for me to ever know that. But I don't get hung up on the positions of anyone. Especially in a year like last year. To this point, I'd say it's hard to judge the deadline as anything but a success for the long-term. That may change. Maybe it changes by the end of the season if guys all just fall apart. But the early returns are quite promising pretty much across the board. I'll always prefer athletic, up the middle types, but if you're not getting offered any of them then it's hard to blame them for taking other positions. Just accumulate talent and figure it out from there. I didn't mind the Caratini signing. Would've preferred a 1-year deal, but he'd been good the last couple years and they need(ed) a catcher. Bell made less sense to me because you don't ever want him in the field and he's not a great bat. Overall, I agree that I don't always see their plan or agree with what they do. But it's hard for me to be mad at the deals they made anymore. They're mostly looking pretty darn solid.
  12. chpettit19
    If he can get himself straightened out, it wouldn't be shocking to see him at 1B. Will be interesting to see where he plays in AAA for the next month.
  13. chpettit19
    To what end? Impact how? I'm not going to go through the whole list, but suggesting Emma is likely to play a meaningful role on a competitive Twins team this year feels awfully optimistic considering he won't be back until August and will then have missed 3 months of games. How competitive are you thinking? Playoff run built on a core of 5+ rookies? Do you have an example of a team that has done that in the past? 2 examples? How many teams can you say made real playoff noise because of 5+ rookies, many of whom didn't debut until after the All Star game? The Twins thought they were going to roll because they had 3 rookie stars in 2023 that helped carry them to the playoffs, and some wins there. None of those 3 guys are on the Twins 26-man roster today. It shouldn't be long before Julien is in AAA and then none of the 3 will even be in the majors anymore. If your goal is to watch a more athletic team of guys who may be able to help have a true playoff threat in 2028, I agree, a combination of those guys would help that. But you'll either be paying Joe Ryan 30 mil a year by then or he won't be around and you'll have 1 comp pick to show for it.
  14. chpettit19
    He turns 30 in 3 days. How long are you planning to build around him as the foundation? 35 year old Joe Ryan going to be worth the 30 mil you'll need to pay him? Joe is great. Its never fun moving on from talent like his. But building around a 30 year old pitcher who's never made it through and entire season dominant feels like a questionable decision. He most likely has 2 or 3 more years close to this level of performance. Doesn't feel like somebody you build around.
  15. chpettit19
    Your argument is that it showed a lack of a plan because they didn't need LH corner OF's at the time but everything since then shows that they actually did need LH corner OF's. Or any OF really. That argument doesn't resonate with me. Sorry. The actuality of what has happened is that they did need Roden. And there's never any position that is log jammed, or blocked, or however you want to describe it. It feels like people's memories get wiped every season. There's no such thing as too much depth. Anywhere. Again, Roden would be playing RIGHT NOW if he wasn't hurt. He also plays 1B. The Twins could use a long-term 1B, right? I wouldn't put money on it being him, but he would've given them another option at least. The plan should always be to acquire talent. That is the only plan you need. Have more talent today than you did yesterday. I didn't love the deadline at the time either. But so far this year all of us who complained are being shown we were quite possibly very wrong. And again, you can name 2 guys out of 10 they brought in that you don't like. 80% feels like a pretty successful deadline. And since it's turned out they did need Roden, I think maybe it's not real smart to continue with the narrative that he was a bad target. Tommy's little brother? You mean Joe? The guy who was never around and everything ever reported or talked about him is that he wasn't only not a hands-on owner, but was actually much closer to an absentee owner? I'm not a fan of the Pohlads, but I still have a relatively realistic view of them. You're arguing the opposite of reality.
  16. chpettit19
    Outman is bad and should be cut. But Brock Stewart has thrown 5.2 innings for the Dodgers. The idea that they were getting anything besides a severely flawed player back for him is simply ridiculous. The Twins have Kody Clemens and Ryan Kreidler playing CF and you want to argue that outfielders are not a position of need? It looks like Wallner is toast and Larnach is not going to be around much longer (they aren't extending him). Emma can't stay on the field and has used all 3 option years with likely 0 MLB PAs. Jenkins is hurt AGAIN. I'm no huge Roden fan, but he'd be in the majors playing regularly right now if he hadn't gotten hurt. Not to mention that if your expectation is 100% wins on trades you're going to be disappointed in every person who has ever made a trade in professional sports. Outman for Stewart and half of the Varland trade being the only thing you can come up with out of the record setting number of deals they made last deadline should probably say something to you. Tommy boy doesn't care about the baseball reasoning. The only thing the Pohlads care about at this point is money and maximizing it. Likely hoping to maximize their sale amount after the CBA is finalized. If Tom thinks the team is worth more with Joe Ryan on it, it doesn't matter what Zoll or anyone else says to him, Joe Ryan isn't getting traded.
  17. chpettit19
    The Twins don't NEED to trade Joe in the sense that they would still have the offseason and next deadline to make a move. But the Twins SHOULD trade Joe this deadline. Joe's patented 2nd half fade, and Pablo Lopez are the exact reasons why they should. Pablo was the other big chip they had to play and now he's completely useless in trade. Joe blowing out his elbow on August 1 would mean they no longer have the offseason or next deadline to move him because nobody will want him. It was said all offseason that the Twins didn't have to move Lopez or Ryan because of the control they have left. Some of us pointed out that there was risk in holding onto them. Pablo showed that risk immediately when spring training started. There is risk in not trading Joe just like there's risk in the prospects you get back. Joe isn't young. He may not have 10 years of experience, but he didn't debut until he was 25 and get real time in the majors until he was 26. He's about to turn 30 in 3 days. Would I love current Joe around for another 5+ years? For sure. But odds are that he starts to fade in the next couple. The Twins got his prime years and moving him for prospects is absolutely the right baseball move. Paying for his decline years is not a smart baseball move. The Twins should trade Joe Ryan before the deadline. Do I have faith they actually will? No. But we'll see.
  18. chpettit19
    It was pretty widely reported that Zoll ran the deadline last year. He brought in Taj, Abel, and Rojas who are all pitching well in the majors this year. He brought in Mendez who is about to kick the door in to the majors. I don't know if those guys will all continue their success, or what Tait, Jiminez, etc. will become. But to this point it's hard to say Zoll didn't do a very good job last deadline. And, yes, trading Joe Ryan is 100% Tom P's call. He's not going to be picking the return or deciding if it's good enough, but he will absolutely make the determination if they trade him. If Tom doesn't want to trade him before the new CBA, it doesn't matter if it's Zoll or whoever your favorite all-time GM/POBO is running the show, Joe Ryan isn't going anywhere.
  19. chpettit19
    They played him at 1B twice in AA (11 innings). There was talk of him getting work there in the AFL, but he never played it in a game. My guess is they've spent a good amount of time with him at 1B outside of games. It's entirely possible that he can't field that position either. I've never seen him there, so I have no opinion, but it's possible all the guys people talk about just moving to first have been tried there and they simply can't field that position. Wallner, Larnach, Gabby, Mendez, etc. may all have taken hundreds of grounders in practices that none of us saw and it was very clear they couldn't field them. The bar for his offense is likely going to be very high no matter where he ends up because it's likely he simply doesn't have the physical ability to field any position well. It's his biggest challenge right now.
  20. chpettit19
    I'd go Flora over Lombard, but the draft has a lot more intrigue at the top than people expected. With Lackey putting up the numbers people hoped (expected?) Roch to put up, there seems to be some real decisions that need to be made at the top. Even before including bonus demand talk. Makes for a more exciting draft cycle!
  21. chpettit19
    They clearly don't believe in Fedko. And as a 26-year-old there's certainly room for doubt. But if you won't even play Outman, what's the harm in giving Fedko some run? When you're moving Kody Clemens to CF to avoid playing someone, it may be time to just move on and at least give some other folks some run. Fedko likely isn't good enough, but why not find out? Give him some run and see what he does. Maybe you have a 4th outfielder on your hands. Maybe you have a platoon OFer on your hands. Maybe he's a late bloomer and things have finally clicked for him and you have a guy who can play everyday. You've clearly decided Outman can't play. Why not try someone else? Mendez continues to move up my list of prospects I'm most excited for. Kid can flat out put the bat on the ball. Groundball rate is still higher than you'd like, but the LD rate has come up and at some point you just need to look at a guy who puts the barrel on the ball and puts up numbers and say there's something there. Yelich has had a GB rate over 50% for 12 of his 13 seasons and I think he's done alright for himself (needs to be noted that his 1 year under 50% was 2019 when he put up a 174 wRC+). That kid definitely needs to see the majors in 2026 if he doesn't absolutely fall apart. No idea what his future holds defensively, but they need to see the bat this year.
  22. chpettit19
    "As the summer unfolds, the hope is that the Twins can be competitive in this division." I'm sorry, but that is not my hope as the summer unfolds. I understand it is some people's hope, and I have no problem if it is. But it certainly isn't mine. My hope isn't that the Twins can compete in a division full of below average teams (Cleveland isn't below average, but it sounds better to say full of) while staving off the real decisions and moves that need to be made so they can compete with the above average teams the rest of the league has. My hope as the summer unfolds is that the Twins re-accept that they aren't good enough and they need to put their efforts into building a future that has a chance to be good enough. I am not sure what the chances of that are with the new Pohlad in charge and my belief that their only intention and driving force of their decisions is to best set themselves up to maximize their sale price in 2027. But it's my hope. Trade Ryan. Trade Jeffers (if he's back and regains value). Trade anyone else who won't be here in 2028 and can bring back value for the 2028 and beyond seasons. My ranking of the division is: 1. Cleveland 5. Teams that need to be building for the future.
  23. chpettit19
    The Twins don't even want to see Outman as they've moved Clemens to CF just so they don't have to play Outman. But they roster him anyways. I'm just not smart enough to understand why a team rosters a vet they won't even play.
  24. chpettit19
    I view this year as relatively similar to the Jenkins draft, but the Twins are picking 3rd in a 4-player draft instead of 5th in a 5-player draft. It may actually be a 3-player draft, but the top high school guy is always going to be part of the discussion (Emerson isn't as tooled up as I'd like a top 3 pick HS guy to be). I'd be happy with any of the Roch, Lackey, Flora, Emerson group, but that's probably the order I'd put them in. Bonus demands will play a bit of a role in who's there for the Twins at #3, I think. Roch hasn't run away with the #1 player spot like everyone expected, and it wouldn't be the most shocking thing ever if the White Sox went another direction if someone is willing to take a below slot deal to go #1. I would be pretty shocked if Roch made it to #3, but certainly happy to have him if he does drop for whatever reason. I think the most likely decision the Twins have to make is Flora vs Lackey. And I'd be fine either way. If they think Flora is a front of the rotation arm, I'd certainly understand that pick. If they think Lackey is an elite bat, I'd be more than happy to have him. My preference is for one of the 3 college players over Emerson, and Lackey would make me very happy. I certainly wouldn't hesitate to draft him because of Tait or Jiminez. He's on a different level than both of them. He'd come in as a top 100 prospect. Maybe top 50. If all 3 make it, that'd be a wonderful problem to have. It's more likely only 1 of them will, and Lackey has the best chance. Don't overthink it. If you think his bat is elite, take him.
  25. chpettit19
    What do you base this stance on? You don't think he's a top 10 talent and needs to agree to an under-slot deal just to get picked?
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