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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. You have not shown that. You've shown teams trade league average pitchers (106 ERA+) when they aren't playoff teams (you keep suggesting TB were a playoff team when they traded Archer when they were 3rd in their division the year before and that year, a combined 31 games out of first!) or the league average pitcher was the 3rd or 4th best pitcher on their team. That is not even remotely close to trading Carlos Correa. You proved it by showing he has 5 less WAR than both of those 2 pitchers COMBINED in 4 FEWER seasons played. It is possible they trade him. It is very, very, very, very unlikely they trade him if they're still leading the division, or even close to it, in July. A 6 or 7 for 1 trade with multiple big leaguers and possibly multiple top prospects as well for half a season of Correa to a team that isn't contending and is more likely to be dumping salary than taking on a huge deal?! Man you have a fun imagination. Oh, and Nelson Cruz on his first deal is a great example of them not trading a star when they were competing for the division and risked losing him for nothing. They traded him for their current #1 pitcher when they were in a lost season so he was clearly worth a pretty good haul the previous chance they had to trade him but didn't because the current season matters to them!
  2. I already explained why the Bauer trade isn't even remotely similar. They traded a mid-rotation arm that was a clubhouse problem for 2 major leaguers. Those teams do run their teams similar to the Twins, but those players aren't similar to Correa. Archer was broken down and not himself anymore. And they lost their division by 18 games that year and had lost it by 13 the season before. They weren't a competing team in the East. Of course it's a possibility, but that's not what you're claiming. You're suggesting it's more likely that he's traded than that he's not because it isn't likely he picks up his options and you falsely claimed the Twins never let good players leave for nothing. I've disproven every claim you've made. You're more than welcome to predict he's traded this year. You're more than welcome to believe it. But none of the points you've made are based on actual events that have taken place. Have a good night.
  3. Is the WAR argument supposed to suggest that those 2 are on the same talent level as Correa? Because he's nearly doubled their WAR despite being in the league 2 fewer seasons. I don't think that argument is saying what you think it's saying.
  4. Well he has a limited no trade clause so that's limiting their options right there. And the question isn't even just who the Twins would be willing to trade him to, but who would want him. Only contenders would want him since he's on a 1 year deal basically (that's your whole premise of why he'll be traded so you can't disagree there). Bieber could be considered Lewis-esque, sure. But Clevinger was the ace of that staff already and Carrasco had finished 4th in the Cy Young the year before. So, no, that situation isn't even remotely close to the same thing. The Indians traded their #3 or 4 starter for 2 major league outfielders because that was the hole they needed filled that season. According to you the Twins would be trading Correa for AAA pitchers to help in future years. Again, not the same thing.
  5. Again, Chris Archer had a 106 ERA+ for his career at the time of that trade. He wasn't a star. And the Rays lost their division by 18 games that year after having been below .500 the season before. Neither of the 2 pitchers you've mentioned are anywhere near the player Correa is.
  6. To that point in his career Trevor Bauer had an ERA over 4 and an ERA+ of 109. He was no star (yes he'd made the All Star team the season before, but was nowhere near as good the year he got traded). But even if I let you consider him a star he was still in arbitration, not on a $35M deal which is why he was traded to a team that won 75 games that year. They wanted him for the next season. Correa isn't comparable to that, unless you think a bad team is going to try to trade for him for half a season in which they're not contending for the playoffs. And the Indians got 2 major leaguers back in that deal because they were trying to win the World Series and had Shane Bieber, Mike Clevenger, and Carlos Carrasco in their rotation while the Reds were bad and planning for 2020. You're arguing that the Twins are going to trade Correa to a contender for prospects in "AAA or maybe AA." Not at all the same thing.
  7. I don't expect him to continue to keep hitting like he did. I expect him to have struggles when the pitchers adjust. Then he needs to figure out how to adjust back. That's the life of a major league hitter. He can't do that in AAA. He needs to learn to adjust to major league pitchers and how they get him out. Sending him down because he's going to have struggles in the future isn't to his benefit it's to his detriment. So you expect him back up in the next 4 weeks or so? If he played half his games at 3B during that time it'd be "like 12 games" at 3B (3 games a week for 4 weeks). So 12 games matters now, but 12 previous games don't? Why are we acting like the kid forgot how to play baseball and hasn't swung a bat or fielded a grounder in 2 years. He played baseball that first season. It's where he adjusted his swing and made strides in his fielding. His rehab from surgery included playing baseball. He's been playing for months now and succeeding. People may have expected him to start slow, but he didn't. He's playing well. Bringing up 2 missed years as a reason why he can't play now even though he's currently playing well blows my mind.
  8. I hope he can throw it all the way across the diamond.
  9. According to Aaron Gleeman on Twitter the Royce Lewis position dance has begun in AAA. Lewis is leading off for the Saints and playing 3B tonight. Let's see where things go from here I guess.
  10. As I pointed out he was having the worst year of his career and a team with championship aspirations still felt he was worth bringing in. Your argument is that when he had 116 OPS+ with the Twins he wasn't worth more than 86 OPS+ with the Indians. I'm not suggesting he'd have brought back the top prospect in the game, I'm suggesting they could've traded him in season and gotten pretty solid prospects back if their concern is always to not lose above average ML players for nothing. Comparing the offseason trades to in season trades is ignoring all context. Again, name me 1 time a team traded an All Star in the middle of a season that they were leading a division or in the heat of a playoff run? You're suggesting they're so focused on the future that they'll do something nobody has ever done.
  11. The team has already said he's going to be moving around the field at AAA. Gardenhire confirmed it last night. He's down there to get used to other positions to be ready when he's needed in the bigs again. I haven't seen anyone suggest he's a guaranteed a top half of the order hitter. The claims are he is right now. He is/was currently performing better than over half the team at the major league level. Sending him down because he may (will) struggle later isn't a good reason. His future development depends on being able to adjust to ML pitching, not AAA. He needs to go through those struggles eventually. The Twins have sent him down to work on other positions and get ABs against inferior pitchers when he could be working on those other positions and getting ABs against the pitching he'll ultimately have to adjust to.
  12. For the record Royce played 3B until he was a senior in high school and 109 professional innings at 3B. "Basically never played" is a misrepresentation of Royce Lewis' experience.
  13. I think this next month+ is setup perfect for the team and FO. Build the lead by racking up wins over the next 4 series and build the confidence. Get into the meat of the schedule and see how you matchup against some of the big boys. Hopefully everyone is healthy by then and you can get a good read on where everyone is at. Then you get into July, aka trade season, and hopefully still have a lead in the division while having a clearer picture of where the team stands and you make moves to fill the holes. Certainly not predicting any massive moves that put the future in real jeopardy, but I've seen recent reports that they're still in on Montas and I'd think the Reds pitchers will be available. I don't think the team as it's currently constructed is a great playoff threat, but I think they're close enough to make a trade or 2 once they see how June goes and put themselves in a place to have a team that could make a little noise. Or at least win a game.
  14. I mean you're actively ignoring actual events that took place. The Twins actively kept Rosario knowing they wouldn't pay him in the offseason because they were in the playoff race. A team the very next year literally traded for him when he was having a worse season. Of course he's not Correa. Very few players are. Can you name a time when another team has traded an All Star during a pennant chase they were in? Like you're claiming they're going to do something that basically has never happened before. It's actually impressive how sure you are in your stance that the Twins are about to do what no team has ever done before. I'll give you props for that. Confidence is important in life.
  15. Nobody would've wanted Trevor May? That's your stance? Nobody ever wants a back end of the bullpen arm at the deadline? That's a ridiculous claim. I don't have hard numbers in front of me, but I'd be willing to bet bullpen arms are the first or second most acquired players at the trade deadline. Nobody would've wanted Eddie Rosario who had a 116 OPS+ his last year with the Twins? Nobody would trade for him at the deadline? Not someone like the Braves who literally traded for him last year at the deadline when he was having a career worst season and went on to win the World Series with him winning the NLCS MVP. They let Rosario walk for nothing and you trying to pretend that's a different situation is you trying to play mental gymnastics to get around being wrong. You asked for 1 decent player the Twins let walk away for nothing. I named 15 (we'll call it 14 since I forgot Odo was hurt) decent players. If you're asking about superstars it's a different question. The Twins haven't had anyone close to Correa's talent level outside of Buxton. The argument you should be trying to make is that they tried to trade Buxton last year. But I'd counter with the same thing I did about Berrios and point out it was a lost season, not a season in which they're trying to win the division. Jaime Garcia is probably the best example of this FO ever trading away a "decent" MLB player during a competitive season. Name 1 other "decent" player they've traded away in the middle of a pennant chase in the last 5 years. Those are 2 games the Twins MAY have won if Rogers were here. Who says he wouldn't blow a save? Who says he wouldn't have thrown the game before and been unavailable? Who says he wouldn't have been used earlier in the game? It is a dream scenario because there's literally no way to know. So I'll take the Twins pen being 2nd in major league baseball in getting outs with the game on the line and be ok with that since that's the actual reality. Again, you're using your expectations and guesses while I'm giving you actual data on things that actually happened. That doesn't even bring up who would've started the games Paddack started and who knows what those results would've been. Maybe they'd have been terrible. The Twins won 3 of his 5 starts. Maybe it'd have been 0 with someone else starting. You can't know this. You can guess. That's it. Suggesting the Twins would be 2 wins better with Rogers on the roster instead of Paddack and Pagan isn't even an educated guess. It's taking 2 blown saves and suggesting the only possible outcome is that Rogers saves those 2 games despite the fact that the Twins hadn't used him as anything even resembling a strict closer since 2019. Oh, and who's pitching the innings Pagan has pitched? Would it just automatically be the lefty Rogers or would it have been someone like Stashak or Duffey?
  16. Agree to disagree on Rogers. Again, the Twins have the 2nd most WPA among all major league bullpens. The bullpen has been more than fine without him. You're confusing your predictions with reality. The reality is that the Twins haven't needed Rogers. The Yankees 100% passed on trading shortstops this offseason. It's a really easy google search to find numerous articles on them refusing to trade either Volpe or Peraza and those 2 are the reason they didn't pay up for the shortstop. Almost everyone predicted a ton of trades for this team this offseason. Like you can go back and look at dozens of threads on this very site where there's dozens of people talking about all the trades that were expected to happen. I'll give you nobody was really expecting the Correa move. But the trades were predicted by just about everyone. Decent players walk for nothing? Trevor May. Eddie Rosario. Shoot, Ehire Adrianza was decent. Jason Castro. Kyle Gibson. Robbie Grossman. Jake Odorizzi. CJ Cron. Michael Pineda. Sergio Romo. Jonathan Schoop. Rich Hill. Matt Wisler. Tyler Clippard. Andrelton Simmons. Those are the ones I can think of off the top of my head, but there may be more. They're all different levels of decent, but all of which walked out the door for nothing and many of them could've gotten something back in return. But the Twins were in division title races during the last year of many of their contracts so they didn't trade them. Weird.
  17. They traded Rogers because a starter is better than a reliever. Rogers still hasn't thrown as many innings this year as Paddack has and Paddack hasn't thrown a pitch in almost 2 weeks. They got a reliever back in that deal to replace Rogers for this year. If you had such a great handle on this front office you'd know they don't value individual relievers and find them to be quite replaceable. The Twins pen being second in baseball in WPA would seem to suggest they're right about that. The Yankees already turned down trading either of their top SSs or Dominguez for Montas or Olson so find it hard to believe they'd turn around and trade them for half a season of Correa. Wells is an awful defensive catcher so I'd be surprised if that's someone the Twins would find to be an acceptable centerpiece for a Correa trade. Think you'd find it hard to find any evaluator who believes Sweeney is a shortstop. He's a worse defender than Martin and Martin is no SS. So you don't have any position players in their top 10 that the Twins would want as a centerpiece. None of their top pitching prospects (including Gil who I'd be shocked if this FO traded for after trading him away originally) are any better than what they already have in their system and would cause a major 40-man clog which means they'd be trading Correa away and also have to risk losing guys as they take them off the 40-man. What trades did you predict? Rogers? They tried to trade him last year so that's not any great guess. Donaldson? They wanted to get out from the money so also an easily predictable result. Garver? They had 3 ML catchers and holes at short and SP so it wasn't any great shock that they'd trade the oldest of the catchers. Or are you talking about Berrios and Cruz who everyone knew they'd trade during a lost season? Do you have an example of a trade this FO made where they traded a star during a playoff season? That's the proof I'd believe that they're likely to trade Correa in the middle of a pennant chase.
  18. I'm with ya on the wrist concerns and I'd generally agree with you, but it all feels like such crisscrossing lines of reasoning to me that I don't feel at all comfortable betting that Lewis is back in 10 or so days. Kirilloff is starting to show some pop again, but I have no idea what they'll need to see to feel comfortable with him back in Minneapolis. We still don't know where they're going to move Lewis around to so no idea what that situation really is. Miranda going down for Larnach after they kept him presumably because of his ability to play 1B just makes the Lewis thing weirder to me. On Wednesday it mattered he was the only experienced 1B on the roster, but by the weekend it doesn't matter? I generally like and trust this FO, but this week has been very confusing and frustrating to me.
  19. They traded Berrios and Cruz during a completely lost season, not a division title race. They're not even remotely comparative situations. At some point you can't keep playing for the future. A team trading for Correa with his current deal is looking to win this season. So that's cutting down who's going to even be willing to negotiate with you. They aren't giving you any pitching that could help this season because, again, they're trying to win themselves and trading away pitching is never the move a contender makes at the deadline. So you're getting prospects at maybe AA, but more likely high A or below. I don't know what type of "young top end SP" you're suggesting they get, but it wouldn't be anyone who can help anytime soon since no contender is trading that away.
  20. Don't get the push for trading either of them. Sanchez is the only other reasonable option at C for the Twins after Jeffers. He's a very important piece to this season. Urshela can play all over the IF if needed. I don't think Urshela should be locked in as the starting 3B (bring Lewis back!), or Sanchez as the DH, but they're certainly useful pieces to this team. And they wouldn't bring anything special in trade anyways. If they're not good enough to play for the Twins why would another team want to trade useful pieces for them? Don't let them block anyone, but certainly don't just dump useful MLB players for nothing.
  21. It all makes even less sense to me if they go back to "previous experience not needed" with positioning consideration this weekend when Larnach comes back. Maybe they start hitting Arraez against lefties just to keep his not-so-great glove at 1B? Otherwise they're putting someone else there if they send Miranda down and again showing they don't really care about people learning new positions at the big league level. I'd love to be in the room as these discussions are taking place to see the thought process.
  22. I'm generally not one for "this sends a bad message to future free agents" kind of talk, but if they sign him and then trade him despite being in first place in the division it may actually send a terrible message to future free agents and everyone in the clubhouse. It's not the fan ire they should worry about there, but the player ire. He has a full no trade clause that kicks in (if I'm remembering correctly) if he picks up his option so the only time they could trade him without his approval is by the deadline and he even has a limited no trade now (again, if I'm remembering correctly). The players all know it's a business, but trading Correa in the middle of a division race would be an awful message to send to the team and I'd think you could kiss any hope of "hometown" discounts for anyone currently on the roster goodbye. That's an awful way to run an organization.
  23. We've established our differing opinions on the Lewis situation, but I'm curious as why you think Lewis would be the call instead of Kirilloff at the end of the month. Assuming Miranda was kept because of his ability to play 1B while the Twins don't feel comfortable with anyone else on the current roster doing it I'd think Kirilloff has the leg up. I mean if 1B is the reason Miranda is up now I don't know why it's so obvious he goes down when another OFer comes back. I agree that's the obvious call, but to me that'd suggest his ability to play 1B isn't all that important to them since there's still no 1B on the roster when Larnach comes back.
  24. I was going to do some work, but now I have to go check out Law's mock, thanks a lot. Johnson, Collier, and Holliday are the 3 I'm hoping for most right now. But would be happy with one of the Cs as well.
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