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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    I don't expect him to have reverse splits for his career, but he absolutely murdered left-handed pitchers in the minors. Including at AAA. Like over a .900 OPS. The Twins undying obsession with platooning everyone lead to 46 PAs against lefties in 2023 and 44 PAs against them in 2024. The very definition of small samples. He got 97 last year and we saw the OPS start to rise. There's no reason to believe Matt Wallner can't hit lefties. In sample sizes over 50 PAs a season he's done incredibly well against them. He's been a victim of Twins macro-analytics.
  2. chpettit19
    .782 within 2 runs. .708 within 1. Yeah, late and close is bad at .577. But those other 2 numbers aren't bad at all. .719 was the average OPS in baseball last year. .782 is well above average while .708 is just below. This idea that Wallner has been atrocious with runners on and is simply "not clutch" is based on people's feelings from last year. The 2 seasons before he was outstanding. It's all smallish sample size. But Matt Wallner has not been this awful black hole in the lineup with runners on base. Even in close games. Since the start of the 2023 season, Matt Wallner is 59th in baseball in wRC+ with runners in scoring position for players with at least 60 PAs in that time. There are 992 players with at least 60 PAs in that time period. He's 59th. 2 outs and RISP? 47th out of 962. High leverage? 52 out of 1060. High leverage, 2 outs, and RISP? He does crater there. Below average with a wRC+ of 80. So, he ends up in the section of the list with Yordan Alvarez (wRC+ 83), Francisco Lindor (81), Brandon Nimmo (80), Christian Yelich (79), Matt Chapman (79), and Teoscar Hernandez (73). I'm betting there aren't many fans screaming about teams needing to get rid those guys. Probably not many claiming those guys are "knee shaking terrified." That Alvarez fella has a .944 OPS in the postseason. Guess he only "appear(s) to tense up and (be) knee shaking terrified" during those regular season games, but not postseason ones?
  3. chpettit19
    The roster is very poorly built with too many DHs, but Austin Martin does not steal bases at will. He's 19 for 26. That's a 73% success rate. 80% is generally viewed as the absolute bottom for an effective base stealer. Once you get below 80%, you're actually negatively affecting your team. Austin Martin has not been a good base stealer to this point of his career. Keeping Larnach was always a risky decision. Nobody was going to take him at that contract number and once you brought Bell in you didn't have the DH spot against righties available anymore. It's awful roster building, but let's not make Martin into more than he is.
  4. chpettit19
    Interesting. They may have changed things since last time I looked. I'll see if I can dig up where I was when I checked this out a couple years ago.
  5. chpettit19
    Some, yes. https://www.milb.com/st-paul/news/broadcast-release
  6. chpettit19
    I don't remember the exact setup, but I believe there's a pretty cheap ($5-10/month) streaming package available from MLB for MiLB.tv. I don't know if that package includes every game (I have MLB.tv so mine always shows every game available) or just a portion of them each day. But my experience with MiLB.tv has been positive and don't think there should be any question about the quality of broadcast or anything if that's a route that's an option for you.
  7. chpettit19
    I'm not convinced it was Martin making that determination on his own, but he better not be looking for a cutoff man before he determines where he throws it. Infielders better be calling out where the throw goes so he knows where he's going without having to look down and read the field. I don't think Lee was there for a throw to 3rd, I think he was there for a throw home. Basallo is a terribly slow runner. There are plenty of LFers who get to that ball, get behind it, and unleash a legit throw towards the plate. Martin's first mistake was not getting behind the ball so he could make a strong throw in. It wasn't super easy to get behind, but I think he could've rounded it more than he did. I think O'Neill would've taken 2nd even if Martin tried to throw there with his momentum going towards the wall and his lack of arm strength in general. The throw decision was not at all the only problem on that play.
  8. chpettit19
    He threw the 10th most pitches in baseball between opening night and day. Only 4 guys hit 90 pitches. 1 (Hunter Brown) had 102. WAY too early to start complaining about 85 pitch starts. But I don't expect there to be a significant difference in how the pitchers are handled this year. But we'll have to wait more than 1 game to make that determination.
  9. chpettit19
    Did you watch him play any of those games or do you just have numbers? I'm aware of the numbers. I also watched him play. There are very real concerns over Houston's ability to hit enough to get to the majors. Noah Miller has never had outrageous K numbers and he's a premier fielding SS, too, but there's very real questions about him being able to hit enough to play in the majors. That .162 BABIP isn't automatically bad luck. He was not having good ABs or putting good swings on the ball. He absolutely can improve, and maybe he will from the jump this year. But he was overwhelmed by A+ pitching last year. His offense was questioned before the draft and after the draft by many scouts. And not just the power side. The hope for him at this point is probably to be Taylor Walls. Who, by the way, had a 14.8% K rate in A ball at 21. And 15.6% K rate in A+ ball. Just looking at K rate doesn't actually tell you that much. Shoot, Eduardo Tait isn't on this list because of questions with his hit tool and he had a 19% K rate at A ball as an 18-year-old.
  10. chpettit19
    Culpepper struggled, but not like Houston. Houston was atrocious. Culpepper put up an 85 wRC+ in his brief A+ stint after being drafted. Houston was a 34. And it felt worse than that in the handful of games I watched. He barely passed the "Cavaco test" for me. None of this dooms him by any means. He appears to be a hard worker and he can absolutely improve and impress in his first full season. But Culpepper and Houston's struggles were not the same. Culpepper looked like he wore down, Houston was flat out overmatched.
  11. chpettit19
    Thank you for proving our point. Teams carry those vets to play 2 games a week. The Twins sign them to start every day. Ty France was the Twins everyday 1B. He wasn't here to play twice a week and Rocco said as much in February. Harrison Bader was signed to play every day. He wasn't here to play twice a week and he said as much during the offseason. Joey Gallo wasn't signed for $11 million to play twice a week. Kody Clemens was waived by the Phillies and became an everyday starter for the Twins. The Twins are not treating these guys like contending teams treat them. That is the point. That is our complaint. The fact that you can't see the difference says all we need to know. You are the one who has a narrative they refuse to give up despite ample undeniable evidence, including the team and players themselves stating the opposite. And despite you pointing out yourself that these types of signings aren't meant to be opening day starters. You're arguing our point back to us but somehow think we're the ones who don't understand the difference between how the Twins have built their team the last handful of years vs actual contending teams. Some of the most impressive mental gymnastics I've seen around here in a while.
  12. chpettit19
    Except I was right about everything outside of him having a career year offensively. You're still trying to stick to the idea that he was brought in as a 4th outfielder. Shoot, a couple comments up you suggest Gallo was an $11 million 4th outfielder/backup 1B. I was 100% right that he was brought in as an everyday OF and fully acknowledged from the jump that his defense was top notch. He figured out his offense and made it a great signing. I have no problem admitting that or taking heat for my stance that he wouldn't be good enough to fill the everyday role he was brought in for. Wasn't the first time I was wrong and won't be the last. The difference is, even with hindsight and multiple people providing you undeniable evidence, you are continuing to be wrong about Gallo. If Bader had been signed as a 4th OFer, or France as a bench bat, I wouldn't have had any problem with either signing. I am on here all the time defending depth signings. But I will complain about every Bader and France as everyday players signing from now until I die. They are bad moves, even if some turn out surprisingly well. You're a Mets fan who liked Bader and have continued to claim he was signed as a 4th outfielder despite him saying he was signed as a starter before the season and him playing as a starter from the jump. The absolute refusal to acknowledge things even after the fact is what separates us. But, hey, you do you, my friend.
  13. chpettit19
    Matt Wallner was called up and sent down multiple times. You're just making stuff up because you have a narrative you want to stick to. Pot, meet kettle. Yes, people have things they stick to. I'm positive you are going to be bringing up Bader for years. Get off your high horse. You don't like talk about veterans being held too long? Don't come on an article about veterans being held too long and comment. Get over it.
  14. chpettit19
    Even faced with him playing over a quarter if the season in the middle of the season while he was one of the best hitters in AAA and Gallo was one of the worst in the majors and you can't just say the Twins held Gallo too long. Unreal. Maybe it's time to give up calling out other people holding onto narratives too long. Enjoy your night.
  15. chpettit19
    The false narrative is that Gallo didn't hold anyone, namely Matt Wallner, back from getting PAs after he completely fell apart at the plate. Here's the actual, verifiable facts of the 2023 season between Gallo and Wallner. From May 1 to the end of the season: Joey Gallo hit .163/.288/.374/.663 in 267 PAs with the big club Matt Wallner his .259/.374/.527/.901 in 243 PAs with the big club Yes, that's correct, Matt Wallner's OBP was as high as Gallo's slug. During that time, Matt Wallner also played 48 games in AAA. The entire month of June and half the month of July had Matt Wallner absolutely destroying AAA pitching after having put up an OPS of over 1.000 in his brief time with the Twins early in the season. Joey Gallo played 16 games with 53 PAs and an OPS of .674 in June. Also had 53 PAs in July with an OPS of .567. Again, Matt Wallner was in AAA setting the world on fire this entire time. In May, Gallo put up an OPS of .654 while Wallner was crushing AAA. It seems reasonable to have given him that month to see if he'd collect himself based on how he started the season, but June and July there was no excuse. He absolutely held Matt Wallner back. You are the one providing a false narrative. At a minimum he cost Wallner roughly 100 PAs in the majors in the heart of the season. Joey Gallo not being cut by the end of May in 2023 absolutely, positively, 100% held Matt Wallner back in AAA.
  16. chpettit19
    As @Mike Sixel pointed out, Mendez would probably be at AAA playing 1B if it weren't for there being so many guys there already. As @jorgenswest points out, Roden has played 1B in the past. As @Chembry points out, GG has been there some this spring. And I'll add the Fedko has also played some 1B in the past. The Twins seem to have some options to move a guy from the OF to 1B. From what I watched last year, Mendez was the worst OF amongst these 4. Followed by GG, then Fedko, then Roden. So, that'd be the order I try them at 1B. Mr Dinkelman has his work cut out for him in St Paul trying to ensure all these guys get enough ABs.
  17. chpettit19
    If it makes you feel better, I bet Martin is the opening day LFer since they're facing a lefty. So, technically, it'll be a Martin-Buxton-Wallner OF to start 2026...
  18. chpettit19
    Yeah, I should've put a message out on here to see who was there and see if I could meet a few of my fellow TD posters. I watched Houston some on the back fields and he's certainly on a different level than most every teammate I saw him do drills with. I don't know about his bat yet, so I'm fine waiting. No amount of defense makes up for an auto-out in the lineup. But I'm hoping he can hit enough to get there because it'd be great to have a true topline defender at SS for many years. Ober is a big boy. I didn't see him throw, though. Hill has an electric arm, and I love watching Tait hit. Hope they can really start to put it together this year and move up the system further.
  19. chpettit19
    Didn't Buxton come in for defense with PCA moving to left and Roman Anthony coming out of the game? I mean, I'd say PCA is probably the best defensive outfielder in baseball right now, but Buxton stayed in CF. He was replaced for his bat because he went hitless and PCA was one of their best hitters for the tourney.
  20. chpettit19
    Yeah, I guess I don't see that extrapolation based on 1 lineup spot. I gave you the top 5 teams in steals last year and 3 of the 5 did not have base stealers in the leadoff spot. I think it can tell you whether they're more "new school" in trying to get their best hitters the most at bats, but I don't think it tells you anything about whether or not they want to steal bases. Trea Turner isn't as good of a hitter as Kyle Schwarber. That's why he doesn't hit leadoff. But they still want Trea to steal bases when the time is right. He stole 36 last year. We have data on Shelton. He's managed many years. Before he was fired last year he had Oneil Cruz leadoff more than anyone else on the Pirates (he had a .298 OBP, FYI). 91 PAs over 20 games with Ke'Bryan Hayes next at 23 PAs in 5 games. In 2024, Andrew McCutchen lead the team with 364 PAs in the leadoff spot in 81 games. Followed by Isiah Kiner-Falefa (179 in 40 games), Connor Joe (60 in 14), and Oneil Cruz (50 in 11). In 2023, the leader was Ke'Bryan Hayes with 204 PAs in 45 games. Followed by Ji Hwan Bae (113 in 27 games), McCutchen (101 in 22 games), and Connor Joe (80 in 21 games). I'm not going back any further, but there's 2+ years of data.
  21. chpettit19
    Another mostly healthy year from Buxton would/will be very fun to watch. I'm interested to see what Bradley and Abel do. I don't know if I'd call it optimism, but I'm interested. I saw Abel throw at Spring Training, and he's incredibly intriguing. So, I guess there's a little optimism that he can step forward as someone who looks like a playoff caliber starter we can start rebuilding the staff around. Most definitely interested in seeing Emma, Jenkins, GG, etc. debut. Similar to the pitching, it's mostly interest at this point, but there's certainly a little optimism for Jenkins in particular. Wallner has looked locked in after the first couple weeks of spring, so there's a little optimism for me there, as well. If he can put together a full season to match what he did in half seasons in 2023 and 2024, that'd be a huge boost to the lineup. Just like the previous 2 stances, it's mostly interest at this point, but I have a little optimism around him. At this point, Lewis is simply interest to see if he can get his career back on track. In summary, there's certainly some interesting things, but much more minimal optimism leading into this season.
  22. chpettit19
    I didn't say "work out well" because you didn't say "work out well." You said "great." And, no, a 1.5 WAR player would not have been "great." That's the point. That'd be a 4th outfielder playing as an everyday player. Thus, yes, he did need a career offensive year to be worth the everyday job he was handed. No, revisionist history is pretending Ty France wasn't their plan A. Since, you know, on February 15th (a little before the season started, I believe) Rocco Baldelli said "the kind of hitter that he is, this isn't a platoon situation. I think he's going to play." You can look up some of the articles about it from back then if you'd like. Both of those guys were signed to be everyday players. 1 ended up living up to it. The other was a large reason they had a fire sale in July. This is going nowhere. No reason for us to derail this thread any longer.
  23. chpettit19
    He was signed to be an everyday outfielder. You can continue claiming he was a 4th outfielder, but we have the ability to look back and see how he was used from the very beginning, and it was as an everyday outfielder. So, yes, he did need to have a career year for that deal to be great. He was "perfectly fine" for $1 million. That's the point. He had 4 postseason PAs. He was the Twins everyday 1B from the jump. Thank you for proving my point. An actually good team gave him 4 PAs in 18 games. The Twins were giving him 4 PAs every day. I love external players. Our internal players have been developed so poorly we need external players. The problem is that they sign bench players to be everyday players and it's why they continue to struggle. Can't develop and can't afford true, impactful starting external players. Yes, they do hit on some of them. But if they were nailing these external signings, if Ty France was actually a legitimate starting 1B, Rocco Baldelli and Derek Falvey would be in Fort Myers.
  24. chpettit19
    Nobody was predicting Bader having a career year offensively. Not even you, as his biggest fan. And I fully and completely disagree that Ty France made anyone look foolish. He was exactly what I, and many others, complain about. He's a "success" for his contract, not a meaningful piece on a winning team. That matters. "He only cost $1 million, so being an almost average bat is a win!" doesn't help you actually win games. You need to be able to use young players in a role like that. You need more than an 87 OPS+ from a veteran every day starter, no matter how low their contract is. If you can't fill 87 OPS+ roles at 1B with a prospect, you're in trouble. Thus, the Twins have been in trouble a lot. There are a lot of complaints and praises from many different people on this site that linger much longer than they should. The Twins were right about letting Rosario go however many years ago and posters still bring him up since the LF spot hasn't been good since, even though he's been worse. I'd be willing to bet a lot that some other posters find some of the things you bring up annoying as well. I know they find some of my pet peeves I harp on annoying. Welcome to the internet, my friend.
  25. chpettit19
    Not sure why who hits leadoff says so much about your desire to steal bases. Can a guy not steal bases if they hit 2 through 9? Corbin Carroll stole more bases hitting in the 3-hole last year (18) than he did hitting leadoff (12). But he hit leadoff in 72 games compared to 41 in the 3-hole. Part of that is that his OBP in the leadoff spot was .332 vs .388 hitting 3rd. But the desire to have him steal, or the team in general, didn't change between him hitting 1st vs 3rd. Tampa Bay lead the league in steals last year. Yandy Diaz hit leadoff for them in 64 games (2nd most of the team). He has 11 stolen bases in his career. 3 last year. Seattle was 3rd in the league in steals last year. Seattle's 2 main leadoff hitters were J.P Crawford and Randy Arozarena. Combined for 15 total steals as leadoff hitters. The Cubs tied with Seattle for 3rd. Their main leadoff hitter (84 games) was Ian Happ. He had 4 stolen bases as a 1-hole hitter. Next most used was Michael Busch (52 games), he had 0 steals from that spot in the lineup. The Mets were 5th in steals. Francisco Lindor was their main leadoff hitter (133 games) and stole 27 bases from the leadoff spot. He's a little tough to judge on why he was there as he's also one of the best hitters on the planet. But Juan Soto hit 2 for them most of the time, and he stole 38 total bases despite never stealing more than 12 in a season before. They were clearly a team looking to steal from any spot in the order. Milwaukee was 2nd and have a whole team of fast guys you're talking about. Those are the top 5 teams in steals last year. I don't think who their leadoff hitter was said much about their desire to steal bases as a whole.
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