Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

chpettit19

Community Moderator
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,094

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    167

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    Did they improve defense or did they manipulate a bad metric? Carlos Santana had long been considered a premiere defender at 1st. Evaluators did not at all agree with the metrics on him. The Twins didn't improve his ability to get to or catch the ball, I'm sorry. They just manipulated the defensive metrics. Josh Bell isn't considered a bad defender because of those metrics, he's considered a bad defender because people have watched him field. Defensive metrics still have a long, long ways to go. Let's take Carlos Correa as an example. His OAA numbers have gone -18, -2, 23, 11, 4, 10, -3, 0, 4, 0, -2 Dansby Swanson has long been considered an elite defender. His OAA numbers: 1, -5, 7, 3, 8, 1, 21, 20, 17, 4 Ty France OAA numbers: -2, -1, -3, -5, -1, -12, 10. I'm sorry, but Ty France didn't suddenly become a gold glove defender last year after having been a below average defender his entire career. 2 of the better SS defenders of the last decade didn't bounce between elite, average, slightly above average, and below average. The metrics are easily manipulated. I believe Correa even talked about it once or twice, mentioning how if you want to improve your metrics you just need to stand in a different place.
  2. chpettit19
    We need to get beyond the idea of "success at a cost of 7 million." Ty France was a "success at the cost of 1 million," but he didn't help the team win baseball games. They don't give out division titles or World Series births for getting the best deals. You have to have real, actual, above average talent to do that. Teams in the Twins tax bracket need to get their "success at a cost..." production from league minimum guys, preferably with options left. If the Twins are spending $7 million on a free agent, they need much more than a good deal, they need real, above average production. Bell has never been "close to average" on defense. He's awful. If they plan to play him regularly at all at 1B, they're going to have the worst infield defense in baseball.
  3. chpettit19
    I'm pretty notorious for not caring much about coaching at all. But I couldn't have faith in the current staff because they're yet another new group.
  4. chpettit19
    Oh, I'm certainly hoping there's a dozen statistical outliers. I just don't judge moves based on that hope. I don't hate this move. It's the type of move I expected. I just don't love the move either. It's defensible and I hope Bell does well.
  5. chpettit19
    Bader brought elite defense. That was always going to be the case. He was always going to be useful in that way. He's an awful comp here. And he had .9 WAR in 2024. If that isn't "touching 1" I don't know what is. His problem was health. He had .6 WAR in 98 games in 2023. Could Bell put up a 130 OPS+? Sure. Julien could, too. Lewis could put up 160. Wallner 150. Larnach 125. Then the Twins are winning the division by 10 games and fighting for a title. "Can" is a terrible metric. What are the likelihoods? That's all that matters. Falvey has been building off the "can" for years and it's gone very poorly because the most likely outcomes are the ones that keep happening. The strategy of "if everybody has career years, we're golden" is a bad strategy. We certainly all hope it happens every year but expecting it is bad team building. It's what the Twins have been doing for years. And it's why they continue to struggle.
  6. chpettit19
    You don't even need WAR to show Josh Bell is a below average 1B/DH. His offensive numbers alone do that. He played 1B 33 times last year because he's terrible there. Has been his whole career. That isn't a new idea. He was the DH 98 times. Amongst DHs with 100 PAs at the "position," he ranked 35th in OPS. 36th in slug. 28th in OBP. 40th in Avg. Don't need WAR to tell you that those numbers aren't good for one of the worst defenders in baseball.
  7. chpettit19
    Sure. I'll take the under on Josh Bell being a 2-3 WAR bat. I mean he hasn't even sniffed 1 WAR in 3 years. That is just not a reasonable projection for him. Do I hope he does that? Absolutely. But a realistic projection for Josh Bell is 0 WAR.
  8. chpettit19
    How many DHs in baseball make 15 million a year? 4. And the Rangers are not at all happy paying Joc that. Are you suggesting teams will put Josh Bell in that category after he puts up 1 season? He better put up Schwarber numbers this year if he's going to get that. I'll take the under.
  9. chpettit19
    Yeah, I don't think it's a terrible move, but that's because I expect them to be out of it by the end of April and the Pohlads to tell Falvey to dump the rest of Bell's salary. I don't hate the move because I think they'll trade him, I just don't think it's the plan as of December 15, 2025. I lean towards him just trying to save his job, but if he didn't think this team was any good he'd trade Ryan for sure, and I truly don't think he has any intention of doing it.
  10. chpettit19
    Oh, I don't at all know better. I 100% believe Falvey is trying to compete in 2026. I don't know if he believes they can actually pull it off or if he's just making 1 last gasp effort to save his job, but I have been saying since the deadline I didn't think he was blowing things up in any real sense (in his mind) and was going to try to compete in 2026. I fully and completely believe Derek Falvey thinks he just made a meaningful deal that will help this team be good in 2026.
  11. chpettit19
    His career splits are actually quite similar. Adding another lefty only bat to the DH pile isn't very useful. He needs to get back to his career numbers against lefties or he's not all that useful here. And he played 33 games at 1B last year. How much many more days off in the field does he need? It isn't an awful move by any means. But let's not make Josh Bell into more than he is.
  12. chpettit19
    The Twins are trying to claim they are trying to be a good team, though. And people here are going to claim the same thing, and point to this signing as a reason to believe they can be. I'm on a crusade to make it known far and wide that the Twins are not going to be the team so many want them to be until we stop accepting that these are top half of the order hitters. We've been so conditioned now that people are really struggling to look at the team and compare it realistically to what the actual good lineups look like. I've made it my mission to annoy everyone by pointing this out constantly.
  13. chpettit19
    Yet another bat being presented as a "top half of the order" hitter who has no business hitting there on a good team. His last 3 OPS+ marks were 101, 100, and 110. We need to stop pretending like these are bats that make the team competitive if they're in the top half. They aren't. We've had this same problem since 2019. Kepler and Larnach are the 2 players that stand out most to me as getting way too many ABs in the top 4 or 5 of the lineup and people using them hitting there as proof the team can't/shouldn't move on from them. They aren't actually top half of the lineup bats. Not on real contenders, at least. Josh Bell is more of the same. The Twins have been "raising the floor" for years. That floor keeps getting lower and lower. I don't think this "raise the floor" plan is working very well. This isn't some egregious move. It's not a bad move in a vacuum. If you can flip him at the deadline for any sort of piece at all, that's not bad. But the idea that these types of moves are going to turn a 70-win team into a contender for the division is ridiculous. Their only hope remains that half the returning lineup puts up career years. You can judge for yourself how likely you think that is. This move didn't move the needle in any serious way. Maybe 1 more win.
  14. chpettit19
    Boras doing Boras things. I assume the option was added as a way to spread out the money. I can't imagine either side has any plans to actually reunite for 2027, but it gave the Twins a way to pay him part now and part in 2027 so Boras demanded the total be a little higher for that manipulation by the Twins.
  15. chpettit19
    Not a whole lot to say about this one. Far prefer his bat to Clemens, but he's yet another DH on this team. For his career he's been pretty balanced between his numbers against lefties and righties, but last year he was atrocious against lefties. The hope has to be that he bounces back from that as he'll start every day against them while he's healthy and with the Twins. At this point it's an unsurprising "meh" of a deal. He doesn't significantly improve their odds of even competing in the central, but maybe it's a good sign that they went out and got someone before February. Hopefully more moves to come.
  16. chpettit19
    1 year, 7 million with a mutual option for 2027.
  17. chpettit19
    Not sure where they'd want to put Larnach. Wouldn't think he's pushing Ward, Cowser, or Beavers out of the outfield or pushing Alonso, Rutschman or Basallo out of the DH rotation. Weirder things have happened, but I can't imagine Larnach is high on their list of desires from the Twins. I'd think it's pitching, pitching, and more pitching that they'd ask for.
  18. chpettit19
    Baseball Savant
  19. chpettit19
    Mountcastle would be such a disappointing move, but I think it's probably a realistic one. I don't think Mayo is realistic. Mayo would cost current pitching talent, and if the Twins are moving that they need to go full rebuild and they don't appear to have any real plans to do that. Mountcastle would be yet another uninspiring, 1 year addition that doesn't move the needle in a meaningful way. Unfortunately, I think Mountcastle is a real possibility if they can't get Hoskins, Goldschmidt, or whatever other uninspiring FA 1B. It's what they do. Run back nearly the exact same disappointing roster from the previous year, tell us they believe in the talent of the core, and add 1 year, bargain bin guys. Rince and repeat.
  20. chpettit19
    Kim's arm was still better than Lee's last year. He had the 22nd best arm amongst shortstops last year. In other words, better than 7 other starting SS. Certainly not as good as when he was a top 10-15 arm at the position, but still hanging on to SS worthy. Better arm than gold glove winning Jeremy Pena and JP Crawford, multiple time gold glove winner Dansby Swanson, superstars Mookie Betts, Corey Seager, and Bo Bichette, significantly better than Brooks Lee, glove only Taylor Walls, the guy an article on here suggested the Twins should go get for SS yesterday CJ Abrams, and essentially the same arm as all world defender Andres Gimenez. I think you're severely overstating Kim's arm struggles last year.
  21. chpettit19
    I've thought they've had a pretty solid minor league system for a while. They've been missing athleticism, but they've done well to adjust there. But prospects will always be a numbers game. It's why I want more. People throw around the "log jam" idea all the time and it drives me crazy. There's no such thing as a log jam of prospects. There's no such thing as a redundancy of prospects. We'll see what this wave does. I'd just prefer making the wave bigger to give them the best chance at success. I have a Master Class subscription. I just enjoy learning things, so I watch a session almost every day. I'm still waiting for the Pohlad's picture to pop up at the top of my screen one of these days to showcase their class in how to destroy a company. I prefer to learn from successes, but there's still lessons in failures. I'd watch that class for sure. If I were running things, I'd be shopping Ryan this offseason. I'd have told Buxton I don't plan to have Ryan, Lopez, or Ober in the rotation by the end of 2026 to see if he still wants to be here. If he doesn't, I'd be shopping him too. Ober I would hold until the deadline because I expect him to build a little more value by showing he's healthy and back to his previous self. Lopez I'd go either way. It's a balance with him between the length of control and him showing he's healthy again. If I got a great deal this offseason, I'd move him. If not, I'd hold him until the deadline. I'd trade Jeffers this offseason. None of those 5 guys would be on my 2027 roster.
  22. chpettit19
    My gut is telling me Paul Goldschmidt. That may be because I'm in a bad place when it comes to my faith in this FO right now. But that's just what it feels like their moves are going to be.
  23. chpettit19
    I'm fascinated to see what "power bat" and bullpen pieces they bring in, assuming they actually follow the plan they've put out. Will be interesting to see what their idea of good enough pieces are to salvage this thing. It's going to be an interesting offseason, even if it's not in the way I'd prefer.
  24. chpettit19
    If they're making player decisions based off what they think the fans will like, they're already doomed. They've lost fans. Running this thing back like this isn't helping fan relations. I'd argue a roster full of Jenkins, Culpepper, Prielipp, Abel, etc. would actually help their early season ticket sales. Every part of me wishes they'd pick a lane. That's been my argument since the deadline. I said then and I've been saying ever since that that wasn't the start of a rebuild, it was them trying to play both sides of the fence. And I think it's going to turn out horribly. Maybe everything clicks to start the year and I look like a fool for the one millionth time on this site. But I'd say the odds are far better that they struggle to start the year. And hopefully that leads to them truly leaning into the rebuild and moving Ryan, Lopez, Buxton, Jeffers, whoever has value and isn't under contract/control for years to come. It's certainly a possibility, but it's not without risk. Ryan or Lopez blow out an elbow and now you've lost their trade value completely and don't have them to help your team at all either. It's why I'd prefer they just dive into the rebuild this winter. I'd guess Falvey is feeling the heat and he's trying to make 1 last ditch effort to save his job. I think it's going to hurt the Twins for years to come after he's gone. But we'll see. I'll tune in no matter what. Like I know most around here will.
  25. chpettit19
    The Twins were below .500 before and after the trade deadline. The whole team was the problem from the beginning of the season. They didn't blow up the pen for the last 2 months because they were doing great. Why were they losing when the guys who pitched were Duran, Jax, Varland, and Stewart?
×
×
  • Create New...