chpettit19

I'm just going to assume clams like high tide 😄

Well, that was exciting.

Entirely possible. But isn't it a little weird to jump your top SS prospect at AA over your top SS prospect at AAA? I'd be much more surprised to see Houston in MLB in 2027 than Culpepper. Although, I'd have no problem seeing both of them end this season in a Twins jersey.

Interesting. I mean, if they think Houston can outhit Culpepper right now in the majors, I'd prefer that move. I'm not sure you'd find many scouts who'd predict that, but if that's what the Twins internal thoughts are, then jumping Houston over Culpepper would make sense.

I don't disagree that Houston is the superior fielder, but Culpepper can certainly field the position and is a much better bet to provide impact with his bat at this point. Leaving Culpepper in AAA while jumping Houston from AA to the majors feels like a weird move with no real reason to do it. Culpepper is playing SS now. If he moves to 2B later, so be it, but I don't know why that'd make someone jump Houston to the majors instead of calling up Culpepper.

I'm certainly not going to make any argument that Kyler Fedko is some great major leaguer. Or a major leaguer at all. But if front offices followed this thinking, there'd be a bunch of Hall of Famers not in the Hall of Fame. 16 ABs and you're out if you don't succeed? Mike Trout was 2 for 17 to start his career. If Fedko had 2 hits would it significantly change your mind on him? Buxton was 2 for 16. Again, 2 hits changing your mind significantly on someone? Obviously, those are extreme examples of elite prospects failing early vs a guy you mostly hope is a 4th OFer. But "you've had your chance" after 16 ABs is an awful thought process for a front office to be making decisions on.

Oh, generally I fully agree with that. The FO has reached too far into the clubhouse in modern MLB organizations. I just don't think Shelton was fighting tooth and nail to keep Gray out of the lineup and was being told he had to put him in.

Why skip Houston over Culpepper?

I don't know, Shelton played Gray WAY more than I would have when he was here before. He was playing him 3 or 4 times a week up until he was demoted. Not sure Shelton is as anti-Gray as most of us.

Oakland/Sacramento/Las Vegas handed them half a dozen runs the other day. They blew up in Cleveland for a day. Beyond that, the offense has been what the vast majority of people expected coming into this year since the break. I hope they win. I hope they make me (us) look stupid come October. I'll eat crow all day long. Already glad to eat crow on Kody Clemens. I know certain people hate "analytics" and the predictive stats and all that. But they're crashing back to earth hard on offense. The Titanic has hit the ice berg and we're going down. Ryan Kreidler, shockingly, was not actually an everyday bat. Welcome to the return to the mean.

@Linus Not great things to report from thfre first 2 things to watch...

Joe Ryan isn't Joe Ryan. Well, he is in that he's not an ace for the second half. Buxton is on the IL. Tristan Gray replaced him. Trade Ryan Jeffers.

I'd very much like the Twins to get Hancock. Yes, he's a sell high guy, but so is Jeffers and Lewis is a sell middle to low guy. If they can get Hancock for a package built around either of those guys, I'd do it in a heartbeat. Keaschall is a little more difficult to peg. I don't at all think he's got the type of power that got people excited last year, but I do think he's a solid OBP, speed, gamer guy. Wouldn't be super upset with a Keaschall for Hancock deal but would prefer Jeffers or Lewis being the guy heading to the pacific northwest.

I vowed to not spend a dime on the team until they've proven to me that they're going to invest in it. And I haven't spent a dime on the team. I never said I wouldn't watch. Just that I won't pay for it. I always hope they do well. I just know that decisions you make now affect what happens in the future. And the way I balance those things seems different from you and others. And that's alright.

I'll continue to watch. I'll continue to cheer for them. And I'll cross my fingers that they don't make any decision before 5 PM Central on August 3, 2026 that may jeopardize their chances in future seasons. Buxton's availability over the next 5 games, and Ryan's performance tonight are the first 2 super fascinating things for me.

I thoroughly enjoyed it. And I still want them to trade Ryan Jeffers and not give up any meaningful prospect for a team that's been at .500 for 2 of the last 84 games.

Who said I hoped Ryan is cooked? I'd put my money on him being cooked for the rest of this season before I put it on him being a 3.38 ERA pitcher the rest of the year. But that doesn't mean I want him to go from a 3.17 ERA pitcher to a 4.93 ERA pitcher. Those aren't random numbers, by the way. Those are his ERA pre and post All Star break for his career. I'm off the trade Ryan thing now, because I don't think they could get as much value as I'd like because he's reinforced that he's likely to fade in the 2nd half again. Like he has done literally every season of his career. 6 innings of 1 run ball would be encouraging, but it also depends how he gets there and how it looks. I want Ryan to be good. You seem to be confusing making a prediction based on 4+ years of data with me hoping for something. I hope he never gives up a run again in his life, but that wouldn't be a very good prediction on what he'll actually do. It's ok to try to win the division no matter what I think about who they should trade away, trade for, sign, cut, demote, promote, anything. And it's ok for you to want them to do different moves than I want them to do. Buxton isn't a new caveat, but it's another data point to consider. That's what every decision they make should be about. Data points (some human provided, like by scouts) telling them what the likely outcomes of things are and how certain decisions are likely to affect things. If Buxton goes on the IL and is likely out for 2 to 4 weeks (random numbers, I don't know his actual situation) and Ryan is a mid-4 ERA pitcher, or on the IL because the arm fatigue is actually something more (like in 2023 when he hid his injury), do you think the Twins are likely to succeed the rest of the way? Or do you think it'd hurt their chances to have their "ace" and superstar out? Do you think they should ignore those things or factor them in when they make decisions? Nothing is morphing. My stance has been the same all season. This team isn't good enough. I'm glad people are excited about them being .500. That doesn't do it for me. They're struggling to beat 2 teams with 45 wins. They're struggling to score runs against the 28th and 29th "best" pitching staffs in baseball. Outside of the As defense handing them half a dozen runs the other night, the Twins have scored 5 runs in 3 games against teams with 4.84 and 5.35 ERAs. Many of us pointed out the unsustainability of their offense performing so much better with RISP than they do the rest of the time. Welcome to the return to the mean. I hope the Twins win every game. I don't expect them to. I won't be upset if they trade prospects like Kyle DeBarge for a rental reliever. Trade DeBarge, Amick, and Rosario for 3 different relievers. I will be upset if they trade somebody like Riley Quick for a rental starter. If Buxton goes on the IL and they can't beat the Royals with Joe Ryan on the mound, yes, I think that should play a factor in the moves they make between now and 5 PM central on August 3. I'd trade Jeffers no matter what. Don't think anyone is crazy for not wanting that. But it's what I'd do if I were in charge. Won't be mad if they keep him, and I hope he OPSes 1.000 if they do. Don't want them to lose games in order to convince them to trade him. Think they should've decided that already. But it's what I'd like to see them do.

They're "in contention" because the rest of the league is struggling. They've been at, not above, .500 for 2 days since they were 12-12. That's an 84 game stretch. I'm glad people are excited about this team. I'm glad they're slightly outperforming expectations. But struggling to beat, and score against, 2 completely awful teams doesn't excite me. They've been more enjoyable to watch than last year's team, but .500 simply doesn't excite me. And I'd argue you can't with you "sum of ALL of it's pieces" on one hand and "can't lose any of their hitters" on the other. They're returning to the mean with RISP since the break. I hope they get back to putting up crazy numbers in those situations, but I'm not going to bet on it.

And that's a totally fair opinion to have. If I thought Jeffers being on their team vs our team would be the tipping point in a series, I may share it. But I don't. Especially with Buxton leaving the game last night with that hip that's clearly hurting his abilities and Ryan looking like he's already swan diving into his second half collapse. But I do understand your thought process and don't have anything against it. It's just not my feelings on the situation.

Why would the Yankees give up their 2 most used relievers in that deal?

Yes. Well, that's what it was before Buxton left this game with his hip. If Ryan is cooked (so, not actually just one start, but him getting lit up in his last start, plus having this one pushed back nearly a full turn of the rotation, and his entire career showing he fades in the 2nd half already) and Buxton is hitting the IL, it would significantly change what I'd do.

The owners were trying to get a cap last time, too. All I can say is that it's really risky to try to guess what the outcome of a CBA negotiation is going to be and to implement strategies aimed at what you think will happen instead of the rules you have in front of you. And being unprepared, or unwilling, to sign guys before the CBA just means you're allowing other teams to improve while you wait things out. Better be right about everybody waiting it out or all you're doing is refusing to participate while everyone else is snatching up the talent.

I'd expect them to be more active than the Twins, not sure I expect them to be the most active AL team, though. Detmers is interesting for them. They don't have much in way of prospect talent so it'd be interesting to see what they gave up if they get him.

Totally fair. If they can buy, they should. I just question what all they can buy. The other poster suggested they'd be the most active team in the AL. They may want to be, but if nobody wants what you're selling it's hard to buy. Their biggest weapon is taking on money. They should if they can. But that limits your options on how big you can actually go.

I think this is a really interesting piece to the puzzle. How big the moves are and how much it fails is a risk to their relationship with the fans. What are you selling to get "real help?" If Joe Ryan isn't first half Joe Ryan, what do you need to sell to get a guy who can actually front this rotation? What do you have to sell to get real pen arms? If you sell and still miss the playoffs, how much did it really help? If you go on to miss the playoffs in a similar season next year, does the PR bump hold? If you trade Joe next year or lose him for nothing after the season, are fans going to remember that you added at the 2026 deadline and not scream "cheap Pohlads" then while tanking the relationship again? I'm of the opinion that to truly repair the damage you need to build a team that actually competes. Not just for .500, but to be a consistently above .500 and show you're willing to invest/buy/whatever then. I think there's a real argument for not selling big in any way this deadline, but I'm not sold that buying in any meaningful way gives any sustainable boost to the PR situation. You can't repair the damage done in 1 season. They've done themselves no favors and I hope they don't look for quick fixes to decades worth of failures.